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2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences

NewBluntsworth

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Icarus27k Icon

Icarus27k

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58 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Bidenomics!

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/09/median-household-income.html

Real median household income after taxes fell 8.8% to $64,240 from 2021 to 2022 and the poverty rate after taxes as measured by the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) increased 59% to 12.4%.

These significant changes in after-tax income and poverty rates of U.S. households were much larger than the annual changes in before-tax income and poverty, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released today.

 

Bidenomics in action!

 

Spoiler: it's because of the expiration of generous Covid-era economic stimulus, including expanded unemployment insurance. 

Edited by Icarus27k
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Raptorpat
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https://x.com/selina_dedalus/status/1817624852276424868

little_girl_lost
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Trump made his choice, he should have to carry jd vance to term.

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Happy to see those two got out to cast their vote.

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naraku360 Monster Mutant

naraku360

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1 hour ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Bidenomics!

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/09/median-household-income.html

Real median household income after taxes fell 8.8% to $64,240 from 2021 to 2022 and the poverty rate after taxes as measured by the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) increased 59% to 12.4%.

These significant changes in after-tax income and poverty rates of U.S. households were much larger than the annual changes in before-tax income and poverty, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released today.

 

Bidenomics in action!

What exactly did Biden do to cause this?

Edited by naraku360
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Master-Debater131 Paragon

Master-Debater131

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I dont think thats tooooo much of a surprise. He would have struggled with a primary challenge, and been wide open to a loss in the general. Hes been doing everything he can to make his base hate him for a while now, and he probably realizes that.

Utah will stay red, but now the next senator will likely be less of a centrist.

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Raptorpat Monster Mutant

Raptorpat

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He is kind of up there in age where a six year term is a serious consideration, especially given the dysfunction and sitting in the minority.

I believe his seat is his to lose, he's not at risk of losing in a Utah primary compared to any other state, but effectively being an island of one has it's limits.

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scoobdog Monster Mutant

scoobdog

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Wanted to put a coda on this….

On 9/8/2023 at 12:37 PM, Master-Debater131 said:

Except thats exactly what he is doing. He isnt running a campaign in the true sense of the word, hes running a shadow campaign. Hes campaigning without actually launching a campaign. His entire strategy is to build an image as the guy who can step in if Biden cant run. Hes holding events, having fundraisers, visiting key states, having media appearances, and doing everything a candidate does with the exception of actually launching a campaign.
Everyone recognizes that Biden has lost a step and is in serious mental decline. Frankly, hes probably got no better than a 50/50 shot at actually surviving to the 24 election.

Newsom realizes this and is doing everything he can to be the first option if Biden either cant, or isnt around to, run next year.

From the Los Angeles Times…

Quote

CALIFORNIA

Column: Don’t listen to the chatter about Newsom running for president

It’s past time for us to accept what Gov. Gavin Newsom says about his presidential aspiration. Stop fantasizing about a potential Newsom race for the White House.

By George Skeleton 

SACRAMENTO — Most of us have learned not to swallow everything a politician says. They play too many word games. Republicans and Democrats alike.

That’s especially true with politicians who duck and slide when asked whether they aspire to higher office. They try to leave the option open so they’ll be “mentioned” — without making themselves targets.

That said, it’s past time for us — especially in the news media — to accept what Gov. Gavin Newsom says about his presidential aspiration. Stop fantasizing about a potential Newsom race for the White House.

California’s Democratic governor has repeatedly insisted:

He is not running for president in 2024.

The telegenic 55-year-old won’t run even if aging President Biden, 80, does not. But Biden is running, so that scenario is moot.

If Biden did drop out unexpectedly, Newsom would defer to his old San Francisco ally, Vice President Kamala Harris, as the next Democratic standard-bearer. He’d never run against her.

What about 2028? Conventional wisdom is that Newsom is plotting for that presidential election because, unless Biden is replaced in the White House by another Democrat before then, the party’s nomination will be wide open.But I’m highly skeptical Newsom is even attracted to a 2028 race.

Why? Mainly because of Newsom’s struggles his entire life with dyslexia. It’s my guess — based on observing him and talking with Newsom insiders — that he views the presidency with some trepidation.

Gavin Newsom describes struggling with dyslexia as he governs California through crisis

Dyslexia limits reading ability and affects areas of the brain that process language, according to the Mayo Clinic.

It certainly doesn’t mean that someone with dyslexia isn’t fit to be president. A few presidents have been afflicted with it, starting with George Washington. Also Thomas Jefferson, who authored the Declaration of Independence.

Another dyslexia sufferer was physicist Albert Einstein, whose name is synonymous with the word genius.

So one can adapt, as Newsom has. But he has struggled.

“I found out [about dyslexia] when I was in the fifth grade,” Newsom told me shortly after being inaugurated as governor in 2019. “My mother struggled with whether to tell me about it. She didn’t want me to have an excuse. She wanted me to work hard.”

With screening and trained help, he said, a child can work around the disorder and “later in life you find other strengths.”

Newsom has difficulty reading, especially speeches off teleprompters.

In a 2021 interview with Times reporter Taryn Luna, Newsom acknowledged: “I’m mesmerized by the politicians that are literally handed a script or talking points from an advisor … and they’re able to go up there and just read off the script beautifully."

For Newsom, a five-minute speech may require six hours of preparation and research, which is why he appears so good at talking off the cuff. There’s nothing off the cuff about it.

He told Luna: “It’s spelling, writing and just deep struggles reading — and the reading is comprehension, because I can read two chapters and literally be daydreaming. And I’ve read every word and not remember one damn thing unless I’m underlining it.”

Newsom underlines and circles a lot and summarizes reams of subject matter onto yellow cards.

Early in his political career, Newsom said, “I realized I’m just gonna outwork everybody.”

It’s laborious. But imagine him trying to handle a president’s sweeping, worldwide portfolio — and constant speechmaking demands — while adjusting for dyslexia, even with a huge staff.

I envision Newsom shuddering at the thought.

Why do I think that? Mainly because of all the effort he has gone to the last three years to avoid giving a traditional, annual State of the State address to a joint session of the Legislature. It’s usually the most festive day of the year in the Capitol.

But Newsom feels he can’t handle the teleprompter without hours of practice. And he doesn’t like doing that in a strange environment, the Assembly chamber.

In 2021, he gave the speech in center field of an empty Dodger Stadium. It was an error widely jeered. Last year, he delivered it in the sterile state Resources Agency auditorium in Sacramento, where the governor could practice his delivery repeatedly in private. This year, he scrapped the speech entirely and went on a four-city road trip to outline his legislative agenda.

“He hates giving speeches,” a top aide once told me. “It’s anxiety-producing.”

But stiffing Congress by abandoning the president’s annual State of the Union address would not play well in the nation’s Capitol.

None of this means Newson wouldn’t — or shouldn’t — run for president. But read his own words.

He said last year he had “subzero” interest.

Last month, Fox TV host Sean Hannity tried to coax the governor into discussing a possible 2024 presidential run.

“Under any circumstances, would you get in this race?” the conservative questioner asked. “No,” Newsom immediately replied. “I think [Biden’s] a man of decency and character. I’m really proud of the president.”

Chuck Todd, moderator of NBC’s "Meet the Press," tried again Sunday. What if Biden doesn’t run?

“The vice president is naturally the one lined up,” Newsom replied. “We need to move past this notion that he’s not going to run. … There’s been so much wallowing in the last few months and handwringing in this respect.”

What does he tell wallowers who urge him to run? “Time to move on.”

Todd: “You’re not plotting anything? There’s no Plan B?”

Newsom: “No. And perhaps there’s never been more consistent words that have come out of my mouth than that.”

But that’s difficult for us in the news media to accept. A big state governor is a lot better copy when he’s viewed as a presidential candidate.

What Newsom really wants is to be seen as a national political leader. And that goal he is achieving.

 

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katt_goddess Monster Mutant

katt_goddess

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8 minutes ago, Icarus27k said:

RFK Jr. is going to run as an independent in the general election. This sets up a debate over which of the two party's candidates he will steal votes from. Nate Silver thinks he will take votes away from the Republican. 

I'd say it could be a split [ not an even one but still a split ]. He'd get the most from republicans who want to vote crazy without being lumped in with the current felon of crazy but he'd give the crazies within the democratic party an excuse to vote for crazy while still claiming they are 'technically' still voting for a democrat. 

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scoobdog Monster Mutant

scoobdog

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2 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

RFK Jr. is going to run as an independent in the general election. This sets up a debate over which of the two party's candidates he will steal votes from. Nate Silver thinks he will take votes away from the Republican. 

There’s not really much to debate.  RFK Jr has gotten no attention from the progressive wing, so it’s not like there is any established voter base for him to pull from.

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PhilosipherStoned Monster Mutant

PhilosipherStoned

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On 10/12/2023 at 8:07 AM, matrixman124 said:

He's American but he's also a joke

Young Turks has been a joke ever since they landed on my radar. I've seen some state that there was a time when they were decent, but meh. I just want to know how he thinks challenging the 'natural born citizen' clause is worth while no matter how good Bernie's lawyer is. That article from the hill made it seem like he's just grasping for the limelight. 

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Jman Hero

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With the GOP vote for the insurrectionist and the usual lockstep nonsense, it seems more clear than ever that our system is broken.  Every four years Trump will keep running until his KFC clogged heart finally gives out and every four years people have to vote between Democrats and straight up fascists.   A proper Conservative party doesn't have the billionaire backing the insurrectionist/useful idiot coalition does even if they might have policies people care about.

It's not even a case of "I disagree with these policies but we can work together", like it was back in the 50s and 60s.  It's "Project 2025 (actual thing that exists) - Destroy the planet and put the country in an isolationist Christian Theocracy", or nothing.  And it's equal parts infuriating and hopeless.

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naraku360 Monster Mutant

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On 10/17/2023 at 5:01 AM, Jman said:

With the GOP vote for the insurrectionist and the usual lockstep nonsense, it seems more clear than ever that our system is broken.  Every four years Trump will keep running until his KFC clogged heart finally gives out and every four years people have to vote between Democrats and straight up fascists.   A proper Conservative party doesn't have the billionaire backing the insurrectionist/useful idiot coalition does even if they might have policies people care about.

It's not even a case of "I disagree with these policies but we can work together", like it was back in the 50s and 60s.  It's "Project 2025 (actual thing that exists) - Destroy the planet and put the country in an isolationist Christian Theocracy", or nothing.  And it's equal parts infuriating and hopeless.

It's fascinating that conservatives of the '50s and '60s were less destructive than their contemporaries. For people who supposedly are conservative, they certainly show no interest in limiting their personal greed.

They seem to think they'll gain more power by being more openly extreme immediately following one L after another. Maybe the silver lining to Trump was that he bumbled his way into ruining his own life, along with countless examples of real world supervillains. He never actually meant to drain the swamp, but might've sprung many leaks by sheer force of unprecedented incompetence.

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Seight Monster Mutant

Seight

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1 hour ago, naraku360 said:

It's fascinating that conservatives of the '50s and '60s were less destructive than their contemporaries. For people who supposedly are conservative, they certainly show no interest in limiting their personal greed.

They seem to think they'll gain more power by being more openly extreme immediately following one L after another. Maybe the silver lining to Trump was that he bumbled his way into ruining his own life, along with countless examples of real world supervillains. He never actually meant to drain the swamp, but might've sprung many leaks by sheer force of unprecedented incompetence.

It's a group of people who were elected based on "I hate the way government currently works" and instead of adding ",and that's why I want to go to Washington DC to change it!" had no second point.

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Raptorpat Monster Mutant

Raptorpat

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Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-N.C.) announced he would forgo re-election and instead run for state attorney general. The freshman lawmaker unveiled his decision after North Carolina’s state legislature signed off on new congressional district lines that would give the GOP an advantage in his current district. (Charlotte Observer) Separately, Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Md.) said he will not seek a 10th term in Congress. (Roll Call)

 

Blake Masters, the GOP’s 2022 Senate nominee in Arizona, said he will run to replace retiring Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.) in the state’s Eighth District, where he does not live. Masters’ announcement came after speculation that he could run for Senate again next year, a move that would have pitted him against Republican Kari Lake, who recently launched a bid. (The Washington Post)

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Icarus27k

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The Republican presidential candidate hasn't won the popular vote since 2004, and before that since 1988.

Always an interesting fact that is more meaningful now. When George W. Bush was president, we didn't think this was a big deal because we assumed 2000 was a fluke and partisan politics was just swinging between two terms for each party. But now it's more like maybe the Republican can't win the popular vote. 

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Mix Monster Mutant

Mix

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Do you guys think Mike Pence wears a diaper?

I mean in the bedroom.

You'd assume a guy who calls his wife mother, in public, has fully committed to this kink.

I'm talking the whole shebang, suckling at her tit, all of it.

I'm not judging, btw. Good for them, couple their age, keeping things weird. 

Can't be a diaper wearing president though, sorry. 

Gotta be a dom to lead. Gotta piss on some people. 

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katt_goddess Monster Mutant

katt_goddess

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3 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

The Republican presidential candidate hasn't won the popular vote since 2004, and before that since 1988.

Always an interesting fact that is more meaningful now. When George W. Bush was president, we didn't think this was a big deal because we assumed 2000 was a fluke and partisan politics was just swinging between two terms for each party. But now it's more like maybe the Republican can't win the popular vote. 

Why do you think they're working so hard to make it almost impossible for actual working people to vote? A thousand hurdles has nothing to do with 'voting integrity'. It has everything to do with ensuring that eventually you'll need their permission to vote but only if you vote for them. 

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Master-Debater131 Paragon

Master-Debater131

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Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds

https://dnyuz.com/2023/11/05/trump-leads-in-5-critical-states-as-voters-blast-biden-times-siena-poll-finds/

President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a host of other issues, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found.

The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican rival, by margins of three to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points, the poll found.

Across the six battlegrounds — all of which Mr. Biden carried in 2020 — the president trails by an average of 48 to 44 percent."

 

Wow. I knew Biden was a bad candidate, but I didnt think he was this bad. Hes staring at not just a loss, but a thorough ass kicking at this rate. The top-line numbers are bad, but when you really dive into it it gets soooo much worst for him. Biden scores poorly on virtually every topic in all age groups. 71% of all people polled said he is too old for the job, which is only going to get worse.

Ive said it before, and Ill say it again, Biden wont be the nominee next year. He simply has too much baggage at this point, and if Trump is beating him like this he really is a doomed candidate. Virtually any other Dem would wipe the floor with Trump, but Biden is so hopelessly lost at this point that he realistically could lose to a man whos been indicted 4 times and is facing something like 100 separate charges. Biden is a bad president, and people agree he needs to go.

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Raptorpat Monster Mutant

Raptorpat

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I would caution against speaking in definitive absolutes. There were polls a year out showing Romney beating Obama in 2012, and I'm sure we can go back to previous reelection campaigns to find the same thing.

Which is not to say disregard early polls or bad polls. The real intel is that the polling aggregate a year out creates a baseline for the incumbent's campaign to develop its reengagement strategy because in the general sense only the outside partisans are already in campaign mode. Once the active campaign isn't one side and is framed more as a choice than a referendum, numbers will shift.

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PenguinBoss Superstar

PenguinBoss

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Anyone saying he's too old but will vote for Trump, who if he wins will be the same age Biden was when he took office, is at the very least being disingenuous. That's not even taking into account the word salad he spews during literally every speech he's ever done. Anyone who'd vote for Trump based on him being more mentally stable or whatever the excuse is, is either obviously biased or obviously stupid.

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Top Gun Centurion

Top Gun

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That's not even counting the *checks notes* four active criminal cases against Trump, as well as the multiple state-level suits seeking to have him removed from ballots for fomenting insurrection. Do those year-out polls still make a difference if he's bending over for Bubba in the shower next year?

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