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2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences


NewBluntsworth

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I don't interpret the Senate Dems playing nice as a credible fear she can win, moreso that it's frustration that they're not consolidating in the face of a united opposition.

But I don't think Chuck Schumer carries a whole lot of AZ votes. Maybe institutional donors withhold getting involved in that race, but AZ Dems aren't going to vote for her because of that.

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The thing everyone seems to keep thinking is that she doesnt need to move a whole lot of support to win. Its at least a 3 way race, so she realistically will need to get somewhere between 35-45% of the vote to win. Is that hard? Oh yes, yes it is. But its not impossible.

A lot depends on the other candidates as well. Seems like the GOP is poises to nominate the batshit insane Kari Lake. If it is her then theres a significant number of GOP voters who will be looking elsewhere to vote, and it wont be for the Democrat.

Democrats seem ready to nominate someone pretty far to the Left as well. Depending on how far left they go that could alienate a bunch of voters. Hispanic voters arent anywhere near as liberal as the media wants to make them out to be, particularly on issues like Abortion. So theres another chunk of voters she can pick up.

Independents could easily be turned off of both Dem and GOP options, so theres even more to Sinema. Im not saying she is going to win, but its much easier for her to win than people want to admit, particularly in a state like AZ that has a history of bucking the trend and voting for their "mavericks".

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Gallego seems like just regular left, not far left. But regardless, if she even runs (which by no means is guaranteed), it's a question of the ratio at which she poaches voters from the main party candidates.

If she poaches equally, she could win. If she poaches predominantly from one side, the other side wins.

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cant wait for biden v trump 2. i wonder how they will try to sell this one? the biden presidency has been a catastrophic failure, but they gonna run him since he is the incumbent and the other candidates suck. i guess trump will have a bit more competition this time around, but he's still probably the more popular candidate. 

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On 5/8/2023 at 11:27 PM, Distortedreasoning said:

cant wait for biden v trump 2. i wonder how they will try to sell this one? the biden presidency has been a catastrophic failure, but they gonna run him since he is the incumbent and the other candidates suck. i guess trump will have a bit more competition this time around, but he's still probably the more popular candidate. 

What catastrophic failure?

Afghanistan and inflation were legacies of Trump's policies Biden was stuck with, so don't bother with those. 

I can't really think of anything that Biden did to make my life harder. On the other hand, the GOP members of the Senate, House and Supreme Court have been pretty good at stifling policies that would benefit a lot of Americans and doing their best to prevent Biden from having a functional government. 

On the other hand, what's the GOP offering? Less social spending, unhelpful narratives, weaponizing education and gutting American intelligence services is all I see. At least the Democrats are a coalition party where the moderates keep the more ideological people in check. The GOP doesn't have that all.

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On 5/17/2023 at 1:16 PM, ZoomBubba said:

What catastrophic failure? I can't really think of anything that Biden did to make my life harder. 

On the other hand, what's the GOP offering? At least the Democrats 

This is literally all you have year after year after year. "BUT THE REPUBLICANS!!!"

Biden stood idly by while Americans lost the federally protected right to abortion less than a year ago. Less than a year ago he was still supporting a far right anti-choice judge to a federal judiciary position. It took RAND PAUL not supporting the judge's nomination to quash that. 

The Dem Speaker, Dem Majority Leader, and Dem Caucus Chairman all supported a far right wing anti-choice Democrat against a progressive pro-choice primary challenger, less than a year ago. 

 

Spoiler

Sit the fuck down, you're sickening everyone

 

Edited by 1pooh4u
Leave it. Thnx
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22 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

Democrat Donna Deegan wins mayoral race in Jacksonville, flipping what I believe is the largest GOP-run municipality.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/elections/local/2023/05/16/democrat-donna-deegan-becomes-first-female-mayor-of-jacksonville/70220473007/

Also, Democrats are once again over performing 2020 Biden in off year elections. This is a common indicator of where voters are at. 

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12 hours ago, ZoomBubba said:

What catastrophic failure?

Afghanistan and inflation were legacies of Trump's policies Biden was stuck with, so don't bother with those. 

I can't really think of anything that Biden did to make my life harder. On the other hand, the GOP members of the Senate, House and Supreme Court have been pretty good at stifling policies that would benefit a lot of Americans and doing their best to prevent Biden from having a functional government. 

On the other hand, what's the GOP offering? Less social spending, unhelpful narratives, weaponizing education and gutting American intelligence services is all I see. At least the Democrats are a coalition party where the moderates keep the more ideological people in check. The GOP doesn't have that all.

 

-afghanistan is the legacy of w. bush not trump. tho biden was vp for 8 years and obama did run on an "anti war" platform, so he isnt entirely blameless here. the same amount of blame can be applied to trump. but its not like biden got out because he was acting out of kindness, rather the military was forced out by the taliban. another L in a long line of defeats for the country and for biden.

 

-trump had months of dealing with covid, biden had years. and many of the initial responses were bipartisan efforts, giving trillions to corporations and not doing anything significant for people. the biden response did not look much different. the inflation was a result from covid. and now the prices of everything remain up, while wages did not keep up. so no you cant say "it was all trump" here. and we are all feeling the inflation. hard. 

 

what about climate  change? shits getting worse, and biden has a hand in upping our oil/lng production. 

what happened to build it back better? still waiting on our infrastructure to get fixed. the gop's fault too? 

hope you not trying to buy a home, interest rates mixed with crazy high prices is a killer. this is bidens doing. 

student loan forgiveness? blame the repulicans for that one too? even the biden response was only 10k. crumbs. 

healthcare still shit. 

defund the police? biden gave more money to the police!

does it feel like we got more mass shootings? biden do something. 

i havent even talked about biden pushing us to the brink of ww3. im glad we get to experience the fear nuclear annihilations in our lifetimes. no wait thats the gop's fault too lol. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Distortedreasoning said:

what about climate  change? shits getting worse, and biden has a hand in upping our oil/lng production

Oh my God, at this point he's practically turning the thermostat up himself. All those blatant lies he told while campaigning too lol. So many climate promises broken. We're about to drill up half of Alaska, and this is the party that ""believes in Science""

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5 minutes ago, Neubauten said:

Oh my God, at this point he's practically turning the thermostat up himself. All those blatant lies he told while campaigning too lol. So many climate promises broken. We're about to drill up half of Alaska, and this is the party that ""believes in Science""

 

I believe the official line on this was that the law wasn't on the side of the feds stopping this oil drilling project, and progressives don't want to be told a court is going to rule against the government if it tried to stop it. 

Edited by Icarus27k
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Or it's the legal truth. 

In any event, the Inflation Reduction Act signed by Biden is the biggest attempt at fighting climate change in decades. If its implementation is managed correctly, it should allow the U.S. to reach its obligations under the Paris climate agreement.

Edited by Icarus27k
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11 minutes ago, Icarus27k said:

Or it's the legal truth

What is the legal truth? Go on, be specific. Tell me how Biden was legally required to approve this. You can't because that's a lie.

No court could have forced the US govt to allow oil companies to tear up Alaska, just no. As far as I can tell, the *absolute worst case* legal scenario for blocking this enormously anti-Science & anti-inhabitable planet project would have seen the Federal govt forced to reimburse Big Oil some amount of money, an amount far less than what we have given Ukraine over the last year to wage war. 

Biden lied, he's willingly approving practically the worst form of the thing that he explicitly campaigned on not doing. He is not standing up to fossil fuel extraction on federal lands at all. AT ALL.

And that's the legal truth, not your dishonest simpy sicko bullshit. Fuck, grow up. You come on here and you lie for what, to protect these sickos that don't give a fuck about you? To prop up this rotten failing institution? 

Genuinely sickened that THIS is who you continue to choose to be.

Edited by Neubauten
Junior corps volunteer press secretary
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On 5/18/2023 at 6:29 AM, Neubauten said:

Oh my God, at this point he's practically turning the thermostat up himself. All those blatant lies he told while campaigning too lol. So many climate promises broken. We're about to drill up half of Alaska, and this is the party that ""believes in Science""

didn't even fake an attempt at anything lol 😂

domestically and abroad, it cant be denied, the country is in much worse shape during his presidency than in trumps rule. 

 

 

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Not satisfied with losing once and constantly being humiliated in the courts, Noted loser Kari Lake appears ready to do it all over again!

 

She perfectly sums up the problem for the GOP in 24. The GOP have a massive opportunity to sweep into power, and they will likely blow it because of idiots like Lake.

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33 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

 

Not satisfied with losing once and constantly being humiliated in the courts, Noted loser Kari Lake appears ready to do it all over again!

 

She perfectly sums up the problem for the GOP in 24. The GOP have a massive opportunity to sweep into power, and they will likely blow it because of idiots like Lake.

Well, that and a stubborn insistence on taking away women's, LGBTQ+'s, and minorities' rights.

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I read a comment from an analyst maybe a week ago that said that marginal Dems have so consistently owed their victories (and US Senate control, on occasion) to flukey Republican candidates over the past 20 years that maybe it's less a fluke/bug and just more of an inherent feature of the party's candidate pool.

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2 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

I read a comment from an analyst maybe a week ago that said that marginal Dems have so consistently owed their victories (and US Senate control, on occasion) to flukey Republican candidates over the past 20 years that maybe it's less a fluke/bug and just more of an inherent feature of the party's candidate pool.

At the very least, that would suggest that the extreme right has had a greater detrimental effect on political campaigns than the extreme left.

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On 5/21/2023 at 3:32 AM, Distortedreasoning said:

didn't even fake an attempt at anything lol 😂

domestically and abroad, it cant be denied, the country is in much worse shape during his presidency than in trumps rule. 

 

 

How is the country in worse shape now than during Trump’s “rule” 

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One thing Trump's four years in office taught me is to cut down on politics with people I know I'm going to fundamentally disagree with. It works in making things a little happier. 

I used to passionately talk to anyone about any serious issue. Now I'm more choosey. 

That's the long way of me saying I let be pro-Trump people. 

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10 minutes ago, stilgar said:

I guess because a Democrat is president. The only thing people like him hate more than the United States are democrats. 

Apparently so, but if that’s the case he should love Biden. He’s Republican Lite. 

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Screenshot_20230523-180415.thumb.png.5e13934688b24a09bcb535eb6e276612.png

 

I don't see how this WON'T be an election catastrophe if Trump is the GOP nominee. 

 

I still believe Republicans are going to sober up and choose DeSantis or someone. When it gets real to them that Trump may be behind bars in November 2024. 

Edited by Icarus27k
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I love that e Jean Carroll is suing Trump for more $ cuz he defamed her during the CNN town hall.  What he did was exactly why people hated CNN for giving him the platform 

it won’t hurt Trump’s chances when he runs in 2024. He’ll be our first President to serve from  a prison White House. 

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2 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

If the nominee of one of the two parties is in prison, that's basically a no-contest race for the other party. Like when a sports team wins by default.

No it isn’t because being in prison isn’t going to stop him from running. If he’s in jail and wins they’ll release him.  Imprisoning a former President is probably a logistical nightmare. Can’t imagine it being easier if they’re actually president 

blows my mind that they don’t allow felons to be notaries but it’s ok for our members of Congress or even potential presidents to be felons. It’s ridiculous. 

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2 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

Elon just launched Desantis the was he launched that rocket that immediately exploded a couple weeks ago

"Please clap" - Ron DeSantis, one year from now at a Terrytoons theme park that clearly used to be Walt Disney World.

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Its been a couple days since DeSantis announced his campaign and the reaction in Conservative spaces has been interesting. The hardcore MAGA crowd is losing their minds. Trump himself is saying that just by running DeSantis is committing "election interference". His suckups are out in the MAGA-sphere saying that DeSantis is horrible and that even the NY Gov is a better Gov than he is. They've gone off the deep end because they realize DeSantis has a very real chance at taking Trump out in the Primary.

The Never-Trumpers are rallying behind DeSantis in a big way. They view him as the best chance at taking out Trump, or weaking Trump enough that someone else grabs the nomination.
The Establishment GOP are going with the message of "whoever can beat Biden", and while one could argue that anyone other than Trump could beat Biden, DeSantis is particularly strong against him. They just want to take control back no matter who its behind.

The one thing that all three groups are agreeing on is that it was smart of DeSantis to bypass the MSM and announce it on Twitter. The launch itself was glitchy, but it sent the message that the entire GOP base gets. The MSM is nothing more than the propaganda arm of the DNC and should be regarded as the enemy. This was clear a decade ago when they went after Romney saying he was the 2nd coming of Hitler, and it only got worse since then. Trump laid the groundwork for this in 2016 with his use of Twitter, and DeSantis has gone a step further over the past year or two. The GOP is finally waking up to the fact that the MSM will never give them a fair shake because they have no interest in doing so. By totally bypassing them DeSantis, and other Republicans, can speak directly to their base and to the American People without their message being totally distorted by the MSM. Its smart of DeSantis to bypass the MSM in the primary to focus on the GOP base.

DeSantis himself is launching a roughly $200M grassroots organization that will door knock on the primary states in huge numbers. He is planning on flooding the zone with his staffers to make sure that he gets his supporters to the polls in the primary. This is also huge because that same apparatus can be deployed in the general election as well.

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As mentioned above, it may be that Biden is so weak now that any GOP candidate, even Trump, could beat him.  His numbers are cratering across the board and the only thing keeping him in the 30s is support from Democrats.

41% say that a Biden win in 2024 would be a "disaster", thats only 3% better than the 44% who say the same about a Trump victory.

 

Biden also is at serious risk of taking the full blame if the US Defaults on our debt.

The Left has been operating with the thought that the GOP would take the blame, and thats not true at all. This poll confirms that most Americans would blame Biden and Democrats for the Default. And they should. The GOP has had a bill passed for months and Biden refused to negotiate with them.

Biden is incredibly weakened right now, and he may not be able to recover. If the economy dips or goes into a full blown recession, if inflation keeps up, if we default, or any other number of things happen and he may be irreparably crippled.

 

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@Master-Debater131:  I’m not discounting how weak Burden is, but DeSantis is most definitely not challenging him or Trump at this point.  The core issue of his candidacy, his likability, isn’t showing signs of improvement.  His big launch should have put a lot of his recent foibles to bed even though Musk predictably botched it.  In fact, the server overload should have been an opportunity for him to go off script and show his natural charm to woo voters.  Instead it got dragged and overblown as a catastrophe.

He’s not connecting to people.  A big part of it is his slow response times.  For instance, he didn’t come up with the idea he broke the internet (Musk did during the interlude) so, when his campaign repeated it, most everyone ignored them. But that also points to troubling inclinations toward using other people to prop up his charisma.  He doesn’t seem to have a read on how people will react to him when he does something, partly explaining how Disney continues to outflank his various attempts at subjugating them.  All the way back to last year’s hurricane, one of the defining photos shows Biden casually talking to two local officials while DeSantis is stomping ahead in his white boots.  These kinds of disconnects are extremely problematic for a candidate who’s expected to woo voters that don’t share his beliefs.

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The problem with playing up the Twitter launch as some sort of disaster thats already hobbled DeSantis is that it ignores that literally everyone has known he would be running for months. Some Conservative blogs even ran with titles like "We didnt listen because hes been running for months". By the time we get to the true primary season and start having debates no one will care about the Twitter launch.

Likeability also doesnt really matter all that much anymore thanks to Trump. He is not a likeable guy with massive character flaws and yet he won once, and damn near did it a second time. Elections have become less about "look how good I am" and more about "Look how shitty he is". And in a competition like that, DeSantis does have the edge. 2024 could shape up a lot like 2008 where the in-power party is so hobbled that it didnt matter who the nominee was, the challenger was going to win. Everyone knew in 08 that whoever won the Democratic Primary was going to win the whole thing, and we may be looking at a similar environment in 2024.

The huge wildcard in this is more Trump indictments. The NYC ones rallied the base to him because of how politically charged they are. If the DoJ goes after Trump is could improve his support as well. GA is the real wildcard because that would be a charge out of a Red state with a GOP Governor. There will be a point where these charges peel off enough of Trumps support that he should lose primary races.

Theres also this showing the strength that DeSantis has.

 

When putting it head to head against Trump, DeSantis won this round.

Its still super, ridiculousness, early in this entire process. Im not entirely convinced that the eventual GOP nominee is even in the race yet. The GOP has a very long history of the strongest early candidates flaming out in spectacular fusion. But as it stands as of today, I would say its no better than a 50/50 Trump v DeSantis.

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1 hour ago, Master-Debater131 said:

His numbers are cratering across the board and the only thing keeping him in the 30s is support from Democrats.

In the aggregate, Biden's numbers are still above where Trump was at this point. And even still, when soft disapprovals in those polls favor him over the other party (aka 2022), it's not something you can just write off based on one poll and reactions on reddit.

This is gonna be a long slog though.

Screenshot_20230526-122802.png

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