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2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences

NewBluntsworth

By NewBluntsworth
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Raptorpat
Raptorpat

https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1726684586053120279

Top Gun
Top Gun
PenguinBoss
PenguinBoss

Some folks are out here giving the game away.

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Jman Hero

Jman

Posted
Posted

I won't lie, the numbers are concerning, but something I did find interesting is that pretty much enough swing voters to swing the pendulum the other way flat out said a Trump conviction would make them vote for Biden, because at that point it's a matter of not voting for a convict.

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scoobdog Monster Mutant

scoobdog

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At this point, the polls are tabulating people who are invested in candidates in the moment.  Trump's voter base is borderline religious, so they will participate in any and all polls.  Everyone else is rightly less than enthusiastic about the candidates or the situation this far out.

No matter what, Trump's legal troubles will have an impact on his candidacy, and we won't know what that impact is until at least after the conventions or more likely in the final weeks of the election.

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Seight Monster Mutant

Seight

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23 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

The New York Times has a hard-on for interviewing Trump fans. They're the worst offender of the "let's interview some hick in a diner" trope. They were still doing it in like 2022, and I always responded with "OH COME ON!" 

Icarus27k Is Annoyed At The New York Times' Penchant For Interviewing Hicks In A Diner. But In This Iowa Diner, Voters Aren't So Sure.

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Master-Debater131 Paragon

Master-Debater131

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On 11/5/2023 at 6:37 PM, Raptorpat said:

I would caution against speaking in definitive absolutes. There were polls a year out showing Romney beating Obama in 2012, and I'm sure we can go back to previous reelection campaigns to find the same thing.

Which is not to say disregard early polls or bad polls. The real intel is that the polling aggregate a year out creates a baseline for the incumbent's campaign to develop its reengagement strategy because in the general sense only the outside partisans are already in campaign mode. Once the active campaign isn't one side and is framed more as a choice than a referendum, numbers will shift.

Normally I would agree with you on this point because in any normal election this would absolutely be true. But this isnt a normal election. Everyone knows who both Trump and Biden are. This isnt Biden vs hypothetical GOP who isnt well know to the electorate. Its President vs Former President.

Will the numbers shift? Absolutely. I fully expect a lot of those dissatisfied Dems to do what they always do and fall in line when election day comes. But these polls continue to show that Biden is an extremely  weak candidate. And one of his single biggest weaknesses is his age, and thats not anything he can change. His age only goes up from here. All it takes at this point is a stumble, or "senior moment" or anything else that exposes just how old he is to further solidify the mentality that he is just too old to be President.

I still maintain that the race next year wont be Biden vs Trump. Either one or both of them wont be the nominee for a whole list of potential reasons. The electorate continues to scream they dont want this match up, and whichever party figures that out first and makes the change likely wins next year.

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Raptorpat Monster Mutant

Raptorpat

Posted
Posted (edited)
  • Kentucky Gov - Beshear (D) wins reelections
  • Mississippi Gov - Reeves (R) wins reelection
  • Virginia Statehouse - Dems hold Senate, retake the House
  • NJ Statehouse (i guess) - GOP underperforms (but it's Jersey so ok)
  • Ohio referenda - abortion constitutional rights and marijuana legalization both pass
Edited by Raptorpat
VA House
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Jman Hero

Jman

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If there’s a lesson here, it’s that despite all the grumbling about Biden, Trump still scares the shit out of most Americans to the point R candidates only win in heavily gerrymandered areas, and R policies remain wildly unpopular.  A more sane Conservative Party would have been able to make gains, but that was sacrificed at the altar of MAGA propaganda years ago.

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Icarus27k Icon

Icarus27k

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A thought: last Tuesday's election told a story of Republican-leaning voters not showing up to vote. Usually the opposition party to the POTUS has more enthusiasm. 

 

Sure, maybe progressives are angry at Biden and won't turnout, but have we considered GOP voters not turning out for Trump? 

Edited by Icarus27k
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katt_goddess Monster Mutant

katt_goddess

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8 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

A thought: last Tuesday's election told a story of Republican-leaning voters not showing up to vote. Usually the opposition party to the POTUS has more enthusiasm. 

 

Sure, maybe progressives are angry at Biden and won't turnout, but have we considered GOP voters not turning out for Trump? 

There's also a slightly darker reason.

Dumpy has been telling his smackolytes to not vote since he has enough votes already but that they are supposed to watch the polling places. While this is his dumb ass setting things up for chaos at the polls next year, idiots are likely already deciding to not bother voting in the smaller run ups since they figure anything that don't like will be 'fixed' once the grand Fehrer is back on the throne. 

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scoobdog Monster Mutant

scoobdog

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2 hours ago, katt_goddess said:

There's also a slightly darker reason.

Dumpy has been telling his smackolytes to not vote since he has enough votes already but that they are supposed to watch the polling places. While this is his dumb ass setting things up for chaos at the polls next year, idiots are likely already deciding to not bother voting in the smaller run ups since they figure anything that don't like will be 'fixed' once the grand Fehrer is back on the throne. 

That doesn't make much sense at least in the sense that it cost them an opportunity in Ohio to defeat Pro Choice forces.  They may be incredibly stupid, but not stupid enough to ignore a state constitutional amendment.

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Master-Debater131 Paragon

Master-Debater131

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Manchin Watch 2023 Returns!

 

 

And thus concludes Manchin Watch 2023, at least for his Senate seat. But will he join the No Labels ticket and run?  Looootttttssss of talk this afternoon of a Romney/Manchin ticket.


More practically though, this guarantees the GOP pick up at least 1 Senate seat next year. Doesnt matter who the WV nominee is, if they have an R next to their name they are going to win by 50 points.

Best hope for Dems now is a 50/50 split and holding the White House. The map is absolutely brutal for them, and odds are the GOP flips the Senate. Dems are defending multiple Senate seats in Red states and losing even 1 of them now means the Senate flips. Then you get into swing states where Dems are also on the defensive and any sort of GOP wave or strong showing could flip even more seats. Even worse for them, theres no real path for a pickup. You arent flipping Florida or Texas.

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katt_goddess Monster Mutant

katt_goddess

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39 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

That doesn't make much sense at least in the sense that it cost them an opportunity in Ohio to defeat Pro Choice forces.  They may be incredibly stupid, but not stupid enough to ignore a state constitutional amendment.

They follow a loser who is currently on record as wanting the entire Constitution of the US torn up and set on fire because it hurts his fee-fees. 

Plus, if they think Princess Tinyhands and his merry band of morons will ban abortion completely at the federal level, they are indeed stupid enough to forget they were all about them state's rights before. 

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Seight Monster Mutant

Seight

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Posted

Oh god, nobody else pointed it out, that means I have to point it out

https://newrepublic.com/post/176741/rick-santorum-blames-very-sexy-issue-abortion-republican-election-loss-democracy

“Thank goodness that most of the states in this country don’t allow you to put everything on the ballot, because pure democracies are not the way to run a country.”

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katt_goddess Monster Mutant

katt_goddess

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9 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

Remember past election cycles when third party candidates were NOT newsworthy? In 2012, Jill Stein ran for president and I think I was the only one who knew about it. 

I definitely knew about it because we had one of her campaign's signature hunters trying to squat in the store's parking lot right by the doors. He had to be physically chased off the property and threatened with jail time [ which would have caused whatever signatures he had managed to collect that day to be confiscated/no moneys for you ]. I sent their website a friendly reminder of what does/doesn't constitute public/private property and if someone is asked to leave a property, they need to leave a property and not attempt to enter the store when confronted screaming 'what are you going to do about it?' Never heard back from them but never saw any of their idiots again either.

[ and for the record, we don't let any collectors hang out in the parking lot regardless of what they are trying to get on a ballot. The only people allowed to hang out around the store is the Salvation Army during Annoying Bell Season and they had to apply to do so back in like August. Seriously ]

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1pooh4u Monster Mutant

1pooh4u

Posted
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Trump showed up at a UFC event at MSG. It was him, kid Rock, Dana White and Tucker Carlson.  What an awful group of people. I bet Ted Nugent was meeting them there.   I’m sure there’s now gonna be tons of crazy talk about Carlson being Trump’s running mate.  My money’s on Kid Rock. Trump doesn’t need to take this election seriously.

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Jman Hero

Jman

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2 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

On Staten Island they’d be applauded in most bars, unfortunately. 

I’m too used to Queens.  I still remember him being on the screen during a PPV night and he was booed to hell and back.  
 

Now I have to settle for Bill Burr’s wife flipping him off.

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scoobdog Monster Mutant

scoobdog

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So, what does it mean that Biden is behind Trump in some key swing states?  Obviously we're still a year out and months away from the first primaries, so it doesn't have direct implications on voting.  Also, MD's musings don't really delve into specifics.  That said:

  1. Does it indicate Trump is more likable?  (Most likely no, but it's still worth asking if we're gauging who's enthusiastic about what.)
  2. If enthusiasm is a factor, how does that translate into unofficial poll numbers?  (We know that people will ignore polls when they don't have any vested interest in knowing the results; beyond that, how do people who are disenfranchised by the process reflect their malaise through poll participation or lack thereof?)
  3. What specific failures can opponents point to as reasons for Biden's low approval rating, and how do they relate to polls this far out?

I'm just a little curious as to what we should be looking for as we start the primary season.

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discolé monade Monster Mutant

discolé monade

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1 hour ago, Raptorpat said:

Tim Scott is out.

https://apnews.com/article/tim-scott-drops-out-2024-race-b9cc8fbeba57a123789d8d0484164e38

way better article, than the smut i was looking at. made sure to make it about his g/f reveal. 

and so....to answer scoob's question; if they ain't slayin' a fierce reveal....than just sashay...away.

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Icarus27k Icon

Icarus27k

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1 hour ago, scoobdog said:

So, what does it mean that Biden is behind Trump in some key swing states?  Obviously we're still a year out and months away from the first primaries, so it doesn't have direct implications on voting.  Also, MD's musings don't really delve into specifics.  That said:

  1. Does it indicate Trump is more likable?  (Most likely no, but it's still worth asking if we're gauging who's enthusiastic about what.)
  2. If enthusiasm is a factor, how does that translate into unofficial poll numbers?  (We know that people will ignore polls when they don't have any vested interest in knowing the results; beyond that, how do people who are disenfranchised by the process reflect their malaise through poll participation or lack thereof?)
  3. What specific failures can opponents point to as reasons for Biden's low approval rating, and how do they relate to polls this far out?

I'm just a little curious as to what we should be looking for as we start the primary season.

 

 

 

It's going to be a presidential election like none other because one of the two parties candidates is probably going to be incarcerated by next November.

The D.C. federal trial is supposed to start early March and will probably be over weeks later with a guilty verdict. Judging by how the hundreds of other Jan. 6 defendant trials have went. That leaves 7 months before election day for a sentencing to be held. 

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katt_goddess Monster Mutant

katt_goddess

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20 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

Of course.  My line of inquiry is to what the polls say about voters now more than the candidates.

It says that the ones most likely to be asked/have time to answer any sort of surveys are older lumps that are so absolutely entrenched in the 'Vote Republican because they are totally the same Republicans as Grandpa voted for!' mentality with a healthy sprinkling of those who want the world to burn and want to be the ones holding the match. 

You also have those that toss people feeling dissatisfied with Biden into the 'Voting for Orange is the New Orange' camp when that isn't what that means. 

Probably not quite what you are asking for but that's my take on it anyway. I don't care for polls because there's no way to ask everyone and expect to get actual long-term translatable answers. 

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