2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences

[Master-Debater131]

17 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

In the aggregate, Biden's numbers are still above where Trump was at this point. And even still, when soft disapprovals in those polls favor him over the other party (aka 2022), it's not something you can just write off based on one poll and reactions on reddit.

This is gonna be a long slog though.

Im not really sure that this is a good argument to make. If I was Biden and I saw this graph I would not be happy. Biden is barely above Trump at the same time frame, and Trump lost. That is not a comfortable place to be in.

I do agree that it will be a long slog though. There is a very long way to go in this, and to be quite frank, there is no guarantee that either Trump or Biden will be the nominees in 24.

Edited May 26, 2023 by Master-Debater131

[Icarus27k]

As evidenced from 2022, we could be in a dynamic where an unpopular Democrat is preferable to a Republican. And it's all thanks to Trump and the other Republicans who try to imitate him. 

[scoobdog]

36 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Likeability also doesnt really matter all that much anymore thanks to Trump. He is not a likeable guy with massive character flaws and yet he won once, and damn near did it a second time. Elections have become less about "look how good I am" and more about "Look how shitty he is".

I'm going to cherry pick this part of your post only to accentuate my point, not to refute what you're saying.

Trump isn't likable, but he is charismatic.  The problem with charisma is that people expect it means more than it does in terms of interpersonal dynamics.  Charisma is one tool in a toolbox; it just happens to be a very useful tool like, metaphorically speaking, a cordless drill/driver.  Charisma is in deceptively simple terms, the ability to interface with other people - it can't be defined by any specific mannerism but it can often be identified through those mannerisms.  It is most definitely not Emotional Quotient:  people with high EQ may or may not be able to interface with people even though the can understand and empathize with them.  Most critically, a charismatic person can believe or say whatever he or she wants without necessarily damaging that ability to interface, which means that people who are not particularly intelligent or are just willfully oblivious to the message will still be drawn to the charismatic person.  Like that driver/drill, charisma is a very effective tool that can both cause a lot of destruction if misused and be a force if used used for good.

Politicians since the dawn of history have often had to rely on charisma to be effective rulers with results that have run the gamut from building empires to causing the collapse of civilizations.  A charismatic Ron DeSantis would get women to vote for him even thought he wants to effectively end their rights to their own bodies and could draw in corporate donations while punishing Disney solely for their right to speak.  It's all a matter of getting people to respond to you that makes you electable.  Odious as he is, Trump gets people to respond to him.  DeSantis does not.

[scoobdog]

1 hour ago, Icarus27k said:

As evidenced from 2022, we could be in a dynamic where an unpopular Democrat is preferable to a Republican. And it's all thanks to Trump and the other Republicans who try to imitate him. 

The flip side to a charismatic Trump is that his own worst tendencies have allowed him to suppress what would otherwise be charismatic moderate candidates.  Arguably, DeSantis is doing what he's doing not so much because he's truly a far right demagog but because he's trying to emulate Trump as best he can.  Other moderate Republican stars can see the potential dangers of going up against a riled and uncontrolled based of voters, leaving a collection of has-beens like Nikki Haley and candidates that cause internal conflict in GOP voters like Tim Scott.  Whether people want to admit it or not, Biden also has charisma - he's not nearly as unlikeable as his poll numbers might suggest if you go off his one on one interactions with people.  His unpopularity is almost completely a function of his policy in a hyper polarized political state.

[katt_goddess]

Trump 'keeps' his numbers mainly because his bad behavior is seen as permission for all bad behavior in his followers. And he's going to keep screaming about how he is such a victim of all the horrible not-hims in the world [ and therefore all his followers are also allowed to claim that victimhood ] as long as there's a single dollar left to be grifted. 

And the problem with the 'move' to something like Twitter for all this political action is that Twitter is actively boosting only republican talking points. I don't follow any politicians but I'll have every shitty thing posted by the GOP big mouths right there in my feed while nothing pops up from the Dem side other than maybe a single occasional post from Biden from the official Presidential account about once a week. So any claims that this will totally even the playing field is a lie because the tv, for the most part, doesn't follow people around but something like Twitter is checked by some constantly and all they are going to get is artificially boosted GOP bullshit filled with only approving bot-replies within easy scrolling and all with Melon Husk's thumbs up.   

[matrixman124]

I don't think Trump is worried about DeSantis who he is now calling Rob. Gonna be quite a primary.

[Seight]

7 hours ago, matrixman124 said:

I don't think Trump is worried about DeSantis who he is now calling Rob. Gonna be quite a primary.

Imagine a Donald Trump that used his trolling power for good instead of evil.

[Icarus27k]

4 minutes ago, Seight said:

Imagine a Donald Trump that used his trolling power for good instead of evil.

In a Gotham City where Joker regains his sanity and moral center and becomes the most just district attorney in the city's history. 

[Master-Debater131]

On 5/26/2023 at 12:59 PM, scoobdog said:

I  Odious as he is, Trump gets people to respond to him.  DeSantis does not.

Clipped for brevity.

Now that I do agree with. Trump is totally unlikable, but he is charismatic and that brings people with him. DeSantis doesnt have that same "it" factor. If DeSantis were more charismatic then he would be a much bigger threat to Trump in the primaries. As it is, he has to hope that his policy wins and potential external factors help push him over the top.

[Icarus27k]

 

And he's going to be an election loser again and go to prison. So good look with your "meaner words". 

[Icarus27k]

 

Higher wages and a reduction in income inequality are big deals that are being taken for granted. 

[ZoomBubba]

On 5/17/2023 at 7:08 PM, Neubauten said:

This is literally all you have year after year after year. "BUT THE REPUBLICANS!!!

 

  Hide contents

Sit the fuck down, you're sickening everyone

 

I literally never said such a thing. 

I don't even think I've replied to you before. 

Sorry my comment triggered you. I'd recommend playing City Skylines or watching Camping with Steve if you're mired in negativity.

[Icarus27k]

 

Musk supports DeSantis and Dorsey supports RFK Jr. 

This generation of tech business people are not as smart or good as their predecessors. 

[katt_goddess]

21 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

 

Musk supports DeSantis and Dorsey supports RFK Jr. 

This generation of tech business people are not as smart or good as their predecessors. 

If he wants to beat Drumpf and DeSatan, he can run as a republican. He already believes all the same conspiracy theories. 

[Icarus27k]

 

I thought Kerry was going to win up until election night, so that brings back memories. But Kerry definitely lost, and I realized that by like midnight. It's kind of quirky that RFK Jr. is still fighting that fight though. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by Icarus27k

[Raptorpat]

2000 was the first election I was really cognizant of, and I still remember 2004 coming down to Ohio determining the race. I was shocked then at how quickly Ohio was called and they're just like "looks like GWB won, goodnight everyone" and after a month of Florida in 2000, all I could think was "wait that was it?"

[MasqueradeOverture]

A wild Cornel West appears.

Cornel West Announces Third-Party Bid for President - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Trump is so president again, isn't he?

[Raptorpat]

mike pants also running

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/05/pence-files-paperwork-to-run-for-president-00100204

[Seight]

2 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

mike pants also running

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/05/pence-files-paperwork-to-run-for-president-00100204

[Distortedreasoning]

rfk= democrat sheepdog. 

he will be playing the "bernie role" this time around. 

 

[scoobdog]

30 minutes ago, Distortedreasoning said:

rfk= democrat sheepdog. 

he will be playing the "bernie role" this time around. 

 

wtf?

[Distortedreasoning]

10 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

wtf?

???

[katt_goddess]

20 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

mike pants also running

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/05/pence-files-paperwork-to-run-for-president-00100204

Mike Pence 'I want to be the Ultimate Leader of the Hang Mike Pence Party!'

ND's Gov. Buttgum is announcing his bullshit tomorrow. Apparently his overwhelming need to make the cut was why he happily signed off on pretty much every anti-trans/anti-women/pro-book ban bill that hit his desk this year. Look forward to his attempt to pull the 'Let's stop talking about culture wars, we need to talk about the economy' line that was used during the last election cycle by desperate republicans that didn't want anyone to ask too many questions about basic human rights. 

[PenguinBoss]

I assume the F stands for Frankenstein.

[Master-Debater131]

Im splitting out the political talk of Trumps Indictment from the other thread.

 

This absolutely should be the end of any of Trumps political hopes. The indictment is scathing and absolutely devastating. Realistically, Im not sure it will move the needle all that much. It sure seems like most of the MAGA types are tripling down on the stupid today. Some are even saying that any GOP candidate that doesnt immediately suspend their campaign is taking part in election interference and is in league with Democrats. Its amazing how stupid the takes are from the MAGA crowd.

 

I really, really, hope that the polls show a total collapse in support for Trump in the coming days. But I have a hard time believing sanity will reign anymore.

 

 

[Raptorpat]

He gets a temporary boost in the primary but if he still wins, independents won't touch him with a 25 and 1/2 ft pole and the down-ballot collapses.

[scoobdog]

That really is a scathing indictment, but I don't see it moving is support much in either direction.  It doesn't really say much of anything that people didn't already know, as in there isn't a Chinese or Russian spy identified as seeing these documents.  His hard core supporters likely don't see anything that makes their blood run cold.  At the same time, it's substantive enough to make Trumps name tiring for even his most ardent supporters.  At some point, the tireless flood of negative stories is going to sap enthusiasm for Trump for everybody.  I think this might be enough to allow DeSantis to gain ground on the right most reaches of the GOP electorate.

[Master-Debater131]

Completely. Sadly, I think his support bumps up a few points this week. The "rally around the flag" effect, but its rallying around a total PoS.

If hes the nominee in 24, the GOP will suffer a historic election defeat.

I wonder if there is a point where the GOP essentially bars him from their primary process. It would make the MAGA crowd irate and likely lead to a ton of them staying home, but it could potentially save countless down-ballot Republicans who would otherwise lose if Trump were on the ballot.

[Raptorpat]

1 minute ago, Master-Debater131 said:

I wonder if there is a point where the GOP essentially bars him from their primary process.

Nothing short of all the candidates agreeing to drop out and consolidate around an alternative.

[katt_goddess]

He immediately sent out e-mails for donations to help 'fight the INJUSTICE' and 'SAVE OUR REAL AMERICA!' when he got the news.  

The GOP 'majority' will continue to rally around his fat ass because at this point to not do so would mean taking responsibility for letting that fat ass run things into the ground in the first place. Admitting that bad actions are bad might mean they can't engage in those same bad actions when they want to. 

[Master-Debater131]

19 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

That really is a scathing indictment, but I don't see it moving is support much in either direction.  It doesn't really say much of anything that people didn't already know, as in there isn't a Chinese or Russian spy identified as seeing these documents.  His hard core supporters likely don't see anything that makes their blood run cold.  At the same time, it's substantive enough to make Trumps name tiring for even his most ardent supporters.  At some point, the tireless flood of negative stories is going to sap enthusiasm for Trump for everybody.  I think this might be enough to allow DeSantis to gain ground on the right most reaches of the GOP electorate.

I think it could move the support of the "maybe Trumpers" or "whoever the GOP nominee is" bucket of voters. If you are hardcore MAGA or Never-Trump you arent moved by anything at this point, but theres a ton of people in the middle who could be moved by this indictment. Eventually there should also be enough people in the GOP who realize how purely undetectable he is and bolt for another candidate. Should being the key word. I dont know if they will.

[Master-Debater131]

18 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

Nothing short of all the candidates agreeing to drop out and consolidate around an alternative.

Thats the political way to do it, but is there a functional way to ban him? If they decide to ban him from the debates, can they also work to ban him from the Republican primary ballots? I dont know the answer to that question, but Im sure its one people within the GOP are asking themselves.

[katt_goddess]

2 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Thats the political way to do it, but is there a functional way to ban him? If they decide to ban him from the debates, can they also work to ban him from the Republican primary ballots? I dont know the answer to that question, but Im sure its one people within the GOP are asking themselves.

He was already saying that he wasn't going to do any debates because he was the winner, end of discussion, before this last went down officially. He could be banned on a state by state basis from appearing on a ballot but as long as he has more than 1% support, he'd still get pushed on there by loyalists. 

If they want to get rid of him, they need to cut his funding, pure and simple. He blows every dollar he gets so starving him wouldn't take that long. But they would all need to say enough is enough and refuse to allow him a single penny or the ability to reach their voters to attempt to grift from them.  

[Seight]

6 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Im splitting out the political talk of Trumps Indictment from the other thread.

 

This absolutely should be the end of any of Trumps political hopes. The indictment is scathing and absolutely devastating. Realistically, Im not sure it will move the needle all that much. It sure seems like most of the MAGA types are tripling down on the stupid today. Some are even saying that any GOP candidate that doesnt immediately suspend their campaign is taking part in election interference and is in league with Democrats. Its amazing how stupid the takes are from the MAGA crowd.

 

I really, really, hope that the polls show a total collapse in support for Trump in the coming days. But I have a hard time believing sanity will reign anymore.

 

 

I was telling my dad earlier "You realize the QRD of this situation is 'The GOP doesn't want the rule of law to be applied to Donald Trump in 2023 because none of them could beat him in the primaries in 2016', right?"

[Jman]

5 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Thats the political way to do it, but is there a functional way to ban him? If they decide to ban him from the debates, can they also work to ban him from the Republican primary ballots? I dont know the answer to that question, but Im sure its one people within the GOP are asking themselves.

One thing I’ve heard is a potential plea bargain where Trump gets the charges dropped then drops out of the race.  Of course Trump is too sociopathic to go the Nixon resignation route.

[scoobdog]

7 hours ago, katt_goddess said:

He was already saying that he wasn't going to do any debates because he was the winner, end of discussion, before this last went down officially. He could be banned on a state by state basis from appearing on a ballot but as long as he has more than 1% support, he'd still get pushed on there by loyalists. 

If they want to get rid of him, they need to cut his funding, pure and simple. He blows every dollar he gets so starving him wouldn't take that long. But they would all need to say enough is enough and refuse to allow him a single penny or the ability to reach their voters to attempt to grift from them.  

I don’t really know how someone is removed from the ballot he would meet legal requirements for being on in the first place.

[Icarus27k]

We are not far off from questioning the viability of the Republican Party. The GOP hasn't won an election cycle since 2016, McCarthy is barely the House Speaker after having to hold a couple dozen Speaker votes get him elected, and the GOP will lose up and down the ballot in 2024 if they nominate Trump. 

 

In a few years, we could be asking what new party is going to replace the Republican Party.

[Icarus27k]

Me in 2016: "If the Trump loses this year, the GOP will have lost one election. But if Trump wins this year, the GOP will have lost many elections."

[katt_goddess]

21 hours ago, Jman said:

One thing I’ve heard is a potential plea bargain where Trump gets the charges dropped then drops out of the race.  Of course Trump is too sociopathic to go the Nixon resignation route.

He wouldn't play by that anyway. His whole thing is going to be screaming about election interference in a contest that hadn't even started when he declared it and then trying to get back into the WH because he sees that as a Get Out of Jail Free card for all past, present and future criminal activities. 

17 hours ago, scoobdog said:

I don’t really know how someone is removed from the ballot he would meet legal requirements for being on in the first place.

I was looking at just the primary party ballots, not a national one. Each state's GOP would have to agree to cut his ass off the ballot no matter what and only do their pick from the non-impeached characters. 

[Icarus27k]

[Seight]

9 minutes ago, Icarus27k said:

I mean, its a distinct possibility, at least.

[Icarus27k]

 

Some idiot somewhere probably. 

[Seight]

3 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

 

Some idiot somewhere probably. 

I'd post the "People online make up a guy" Tweet but I have no doubt that people like this actually exist.

[scoobdog]

6 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

 

Some idiot somewhere probably. 

Some idiot?

[naraku360]

7 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

 

Some idiot somewhere probably. 

I'm not especially familiar with RFK Jr. but his Wiki page reads like if Bernie Sanders was made of red flags.

 

And not the communist kind.

[Raptorpat]

Virginia holds odd-year state elections (alongside Kentucky) and I think we'll treat them as part of the 2024 cycle. And the VA primaries were yesterday, where a number of incumbents lost their primaries due to the state's new maps. Quoted from the article, some of the most prominent include: 

• Sen. Joe Morrissey, a political centrist and increasingly rare Democrat who supports limits on abortion access, lost to former state legislator Lashrecse Aird, who calls herself a 100% supporter of abortion rights.
• Republican Sen. Amanda Chase, a right-wing firebrand who has served in the Senate since 2016 and embraced falsehoods about the 2020 presidential election, was edged out by Glen Sturtevant, a lawyer and former senator seeking a political comeback in the red-leaning suburban Richmond district.
• Saddam Salim, a first-generation immigrant and political activist, defeated moderate Democratic Sen. Chap Petersen, a lawyer who angered the angered the liberal wing of his party by providing a key vote for Republicans in getting some of Youngkin’s priorities across the finish line, including legislation that ended school mask mandates last year.

https://apnews.com/article/virginia-primary-election-2023-becbc84b7023c6326b7546c9d7476a7f

[discolé monade]

 a shadenfreude, indeed.

[Icarus27k]

Edited June 27, 2023 by Icarus27k

[Master-Debater131]

 

 

GOP is sprinting toward yet another disaster.  Its simply remarkable how suicidal the GOP is right now.

[Master-Debater131]

 

And yet........

 

I should just stop looking at polls right now. Its just too early lol