katt_goddess Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Icarus27k said: I want to learn a real funny phrase or statement in Russian to say back to Russian trolls on Twitter. I used to say "Your Olympics were terrible" but that's very dated. You could refer to them as pee hole dandruff. Perhot’ podzalupnaya. Milk sucker might get past the censors too [ molokosos ]. Or if you just don't care and want to see who cries the hardest - shestiorka [ prison bitch ]. But if Tsar has any suggestions, I bow to his more current potential insults. I haven't done Russian in almost 40 years now. I'm rustier than the Titanic. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Overwhelming majority of Americans think Biden is too old for another term: POLL https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/poll-americans-on-biden-age/story?id=107126589 "An overwhelming majority of Americans think President Joe Biden is too old to serve another term, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll. According to the poll, conducted using Ipsos' Knowledge Panel, 86% of Americans think Biden, 81, is too old to serve another term as president. That figure includes 59% of Americans who think both he and former President Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner, are too old and 27% who think only Biden is too old." 86% is not a survivable number. You cant get 86% of Americans to agree on a damn thing, and yet here we are. 59% think both are too old, and they arent wrong, but that 86% number is absolutely gruesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seight Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 hours ago, Icarus27k said: I want to learn a real funny phrase or statement in Russian to say back to Russian trolls on Twitter. I used to say "Your Olympics were terrible" but that's very dated. What about "there are three Formula 1 races in America and none in Russia this year?" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) I'm not surprised by it, but I continue to be amazed by GOP cowardice toward Trump. Why would you cower from such a ridiculous figure, even at this late date when Trump is more likely to go to prison than to win an election? He's not going to be able to do anything to you. Grow some balls. Edited February 13 by Icarus27k 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) A person like Liz Cheney defied Trump and lost her seat because of it. But so what? Comebacks are things that happen. Cheney could take a vacation for a few years, wait for Trump to die or go to prison, and then run for office again when he's not a factor anymore. My point is: even if you lose your seat because Trump gets mad at you, so what? Edited February 13 by Icarus27k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mix Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) Just think, there's a universe where The Rock is president. Lucky bastids Edited February 13 by Mix 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mix Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I just want you all to know it's your fault. Everybody with their dumb jokes, making fun of The Rock when he floated that idea. "haha, I guess we had a rich president, so why not try a strong president." Well, now all you get is different flavors of old president. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mix Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, Icarus27k said: I'm not surprised by it, but I continue to be amazed by GOP cowardice toward Trump. Why would you cower from such a ridiculous figure, even at this late date when Trump is more likely to go to prison than to win an election? He's not going to be able to do anything to you. Grow some balls. Trump is the Chairface Chippendale of our universe. By that I mean he is as formidable as he is ridiculous. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) 3 hours ago, Icarus27k said: Legal experts at JustSecurity.com have an expected timeline for when Trump's federal trial related to Jan. 6 could begin and end. This is based on Trump's filing constitutional claims on the novel idea of presidential immunity. Long story short: the experts think Trump's immunity claims will fail and the U.S. Supreme Court will reject, and Trump will stand criminal trial before election day. An expected start date of a trial range from June 1 to July 15, with expected end date ranging from Sept. 1 to Oct. 30. Earlier or later in those dates depends on whether the Supreme Court agrees to grant cert and hear oral arguments or not. https://www.justsecurity.org/91837/how-long-will-trumps-immunity-appeal-take-analyzing-the-alternative-timelines/ Cross-posting this from the "Trump Insurrection" thread to say I'm 95% sure Trump will be convicted of these crimes if it goes to a trial, and these best estimates for trial dates would have a trial concluding before Election Day in November. Somehow I don't see America electing a just convicted felon president. Edited February 13 by Icarus27k 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I don't know why I'm even following this any more. It has dulled from cosmic horror to a sad and pathetic look into the final days of the last remnants of the Paleolithic age. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Summary: The 81-year-old guy who defeated that one guy already four years ago, who has a booming economy and a half dozen significant laws to his name (including lowering America's carbon emissions significantly and forgiving $100 billion worth of student loans). The 77-year-old who is going to be going to court dates throughout the year, has no money to campaign on, and is going to get convicted of what is basically sedition in about September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 hours ago, naraku360 said: I don't know why I'm even following this any more. It has dulled from cosmic horror to a sad and pathetic look into the final days of the last remnants of the Paleolithic age. I'm okay with it. By no means is Joe Biden a solution to anything, but he hasn't stood in the way of Democrats and hasn't pushed a different agenda. How Biden is dealing with the situation in Palestine is in no way acceptable and it can't be overstated how the United States has a responsibility to intervene in this and stop the senseless and pointless bloodshed. But, it was never on Biden alone to fix 75 years worth of policy mistakes, and, more importantly, not something anyone else in his position could have fixed with a broken congress. I'm not happy that Biden is my presumptive choice; I do accept that he's the right choice as long as a vile monster like Trump has control over the GOP and I understand that lining up a worthy progressive candidate, even someone like Bernie, is reckless thing to do when so many American voters are stupid and unworthy of their voting rights. This is all to say that we're not at the point of no return yet, and, once Biden is in office as a lame duck, Democrats can start making progress. At least that's the hope, not matter how unrealistic it is. We're not at the point of hopelessness, yet. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katt_goddess Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 hours ago, Icarus27k said: Cross-posting this from the "Trump Insurrection" thread to say I'm 95% sure Trump will be convicted of these crimes if it goes to a trial, and these best estimates for trial dates would have a trial concluding before Election Day in November. Somehow I don't see America electing a just convicted felon president. 'America' doesn't have to elect him. He's already telling his rabid in-bred ammosexual supporters that he doesn't need their votes since he already has plenty, he just needs them to 'watch' the ballot boxes on election day especially in those horrible cheating blue states. In other words, shoot the voters if you don't like them. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) There's going to be weeks of Trump on trial over Jan. 6. It's going to be the top news story for weeks. And this is going to be late summer, leading into Labor Day (probably). For all we know, once that's over, the narrative could be: How much is Trump to lose by? It's definitely not going to be good for Republicans. Edited February 13 by Icarus27k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) You can see it coming: At one point, someone will ask the question: can the Republican Party replace Trump for someone else? Maybe Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis. But the RNC will be powerless because Trump just forced the RNC chair to resign and replaced her with a member of his own family. Edited February 13 by Icarus27k 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 It kind of makes you wonder if Trump knows this is going to happen, and that's why he's asserting control over the RNC now, instead of doing it earlier. *Lightbulb* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 hours ago, scoobdog said: I'm okay with it. By no means is Joe Biden a solution to anything, but he hasn't stood in the way of Democrats and hasn't pushed a different agenda. How Biden is dealing with the situation in Palestine is in no way acceptable and it can't be overstated how the United States has a responsibility to intervene in this and stop the senseless and pointless bloodshed. But, it was never on Biden alone to fix 75 years worth of policy mistakes, and, more importantly, not something anyone else in his position could have fixed with a broken congress. I'm not happy that Biden is my presumptive choice; I do accept that he's the right choice as long as a vile monster like Trump has control over the GOP and I understand that lining up a worthy progressive candidate, even someone like Bernie, is reckless thing to do when so many American voters are stupid and unworthy of their voting rights. This is all to say that we're not at the point of no return yet, and, once Biden is in office as a lame duck, Democrats can start making progress. At least that's the hope, not matter how unrealistic it is. We're not at the point of hopelessness, yet. Unworthy of their voting rights? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
discolé monade Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/12/2024 at 5:04 PM, katt_goddess said: You could refer to them as pee hole dandruff. Perhot’ podzalupnaya. Milk sucker might get past the censors too [ molokosos ]. Or if you just don't care and want to see who cries the hardest - shestiorka [ prison bitch ]. But if Tsar has any suggestions, I bow to his more current potential insults. I haven't done Russian in almost 40 years now. I'm rustier than the Titanic. can i get a pronounciation on that please? i do believe i found my new favorite thing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
discolé monade Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 hours ago, scoobdog said: . We're not at the point of hopelessness, yet. it's pretty fucking bleak, to say the least, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 hours ago, scoobdog said: I'm okay with it. By no means is Joe Biden a solution to anything, but he hasn't stood in the way of Democrats and hasn't pushed a different agenda. How Biden is dealing with the situation in Palestine is in no way acceptable and it can't be overstated how the United States has a responsibility to intervene in this and stop the senseless and pointless bloodshed. But, it was never on Biden alone to fix 75 years worth of policy mistakes, and, more importantly, not something anyone else in his position could have fixed with a broken congress. I'm not happy that Biden is my presumptive choice; I do accept that he's the right choice as long as a vile monster like Trump has control over the GOP and I understand that lining up a worthy progressive candidate, even someone like Bernie, is reckless thing to do when so many American voters are stupid and unworthy of their voting rights. This is all to say that we're not at the point of no return yet, and, once Biden is in office as a lame duck, Democrats can start making progress. At least that's the hope, not matter how unrealistic it is. We're not at the point of hopelessness, yet. Except it is on Joe Biden alone as far as giving Israel billions that will lead to billions in weapons sales that will lead to more misery for civilians. How would you feel if you were a Muslim living in the US and your only choices are either Biden or Trump. Would you really have the balls to tell them what you posted here in this thread? Would you give them a history lesson to make sure they remain worthy of their voting rights? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 In a special election in NY-03 to replace expelled Congressman/serial liar George Santos, D Tom Suzzoi won. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/12/2024 at 2:09 PM, Icarus27k said: I want to learn a real funny phrase or statement in Russian to say back to Russian trolls on Twitter. I used to say "Your Olympics were terrible" but that's very dated. How about - "Ты хороший маленький услужливый идиот! Можно печенье!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 hours ago, naraku360 said: Unworthy of their voting rights? You heard me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It's hilarious how much they can't help themselves. Media: Democrats winning elections is bad news for Democrats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/10/2024 at 1:33 PM, Icarus27k said: I've been watching elections for 20 years, and I've noticed some surprising gradual changes about them. One is the switch from Republican to Democratic in the category of "highly engaged" voters. When I did my first analysis on an election as an undergrad, Democrats benefited from the broad categories of "adults" or "registered voters" while Republicans benefited from the more narrow category of "likely voters". This lead to Republicans getting a boost whenever pollsters switched over to likely voter screens in the polls. Now those categories are reversed. That's why Democratic candidates in special elections can improve on Biden's 2020 margin in their states/districts at a time when Biden's poll numbers are low. On average, Democratic candidates have improved upon Biden's 2020 margins by an average of 4 percentage points since 2022.* * This above is why the special election in NY-3 turned out well for Democrats. Years ago, Democratic party activists like myself used to dread special elections, and low turnout elections in general. They were difficult and the GOP had the advantage. Now that's changed. It's years of work of organizing and creating a Democratic base that actually wants to go out in the middle of a snowstorm in February to vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Pennsylvania Oklahoma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) 2 hours ago, Icarus27k said: It's hilarious how much they can't help themselves. Media: Democrats winning elections is bad news for Democrats. The money is in the general population being terrified of autocratic control when the responsible thing would be pointing out the weaknesses of these potential autocrats. Even SNL had Weekend Update tell the crowd “Trump’s gonna win” as they booed. The money’s in eternal terror. Edited February 14 by Jman 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I really like Democratic-leaning voters who are totally not tolerating any of your bullsh*t. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katt_goddess Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 14 hours ago, discolé monade said: can i get a pronounciation on that please? i do believe i found my new favorite thing. shes-tee-or-ka. No real overemphasis on any of the parts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Women remain galvanized. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZoomBubba Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Are polls really anything aside from filler for 24-hour news cycles now? It seems like every election since Nate Silver got a little attention polls are just pushing everything else out of the news. This is after they are shown to pretty inaccurate. Seriously, I've seen the margin of error go from -/+2% to -/+5% in the last couple of years. +/-5% is pretty much the range of every election since the 1980s. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasqueradeOverture Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Biden is in campaign mode now apparently. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 On 2/16/2024 at 6:12 PM, ZoomBubba said: Are polls really anything aside from filler for 24-hour news cycles now? It seems like every election since Nate Silver got a little attention polls are just pushing everything else out of the news. This is after they are shown to pretty inaccurate. Seriously, I've seen the margin of error go from -/+2% to -/+5% in the last couple of years. +/-5% is pretty much the range of every election since the 1980s. Interesting thought. Polls this early (February of an election year) are useless. They're not predictive, so I just don't read them this time of the year. In addition, there is some evidence to suggest polls have gotten more inaccurate over a period of years. I heard political scientist Larry Sabato argue this point recently, and how his famous "Sabato's Crystal Ball" publication has begun to de-emphasize polls for what he calls "dynamics" (how a state/district has voted in the past, for how long, and by what margins; as well as economic indicators). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katt_goddess Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 17 hours ago, Icarus27k said: Called it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 17 hours ago, Icarus27k said: You have megadonors already planning to build something new when the GOP collapses in on itself and refusing to donate to the party, this will only accelerate that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZoomBubba Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 18 hours ago, Icarus27k said: Interesting thought. Polls this early (February of an election year) are useless. They're not predictive, so I just don't read them this time of the year. In addition, there is some evidence to suggest polls have gotten more inaccurate over a period of years. I heard political scientist Larry Sabato argue this point recently, and how his famous "Sabato's Crystal Ball" publication has begun to de-emphasize polls for what he calls "dynamics" (how a state/district has voted in the past, for how long, and by what margins; as well as economic indicators). I try to avoid them, but it's been difficult since the pods I listen to on the way to work and on the way back home have constantly been talking about them. They ought to call MSNBC the Poll Channel now. We all know that even close to the election there's only going to be about six states that matter and within them it's going to come down to a few districts that are always close. Always sucks. I hope after the MAGA thing is over that the next gen lawmakers push reforms like a national popular vote for president (no plurality, of course, if no one gets 50%+1 there should be a runoff between the top two) and term limits for Supreme Court justices. Reforming those two things would hopefully provide for a much more stable and predictable system. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZoomBubba Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 hours ago, Jman said: You have megadonors already planning to build something new when the GOP collapses in on itself and refusing to donate to the party, this will only accelerate that. They're just holding on to it until the general is under full swing. They aren't going to turn on Trump because he is going to let them do whatever they want to do. The billionaires who follow Accelerationism (i.e. Musk, Thiel, Zuckerberg, Andreessen) want Trump because they see him as a destructive force that will allow them to step in and rebuild America in their own image from his wreckage. These billionaires want to use treat actual human buildings and the world like it's their real-life game of Sim City. Trump's already bought into it with his "Freedom Cities" propositions. It sounds like a conspiracy theory, but remember Musk is pretty much a real life version of a Bond villain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katt_goddess Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, ZoomBubba said: I try to avoid them, but it's been difficult since the pods I listen to on the way to work and on the way back home have constantly been talking about them. They ought to call MSNBC the Poll Channel now. I believe the Spice Channel trademarked that already, in all possible spellings, for all eternity. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwimOdin Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Shit, I remember Spice. Those colorful waves of static were so hot. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katt_goddess Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Election 2024 list of Presidential nominees - Democrat - Biden RepoLickins - Drumpf Write-In - 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZoomBubba Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 19 hours ago, Icarus27k said: The thing is, considering the current state of the GOP base, she's probably not wrong. It is truly something watching the party that produced Lincoln and T. Roosevelt turn willingly turn itself into the piggy bank for an unimaginative and stupid clown because they're scared that said clown's followers might get mad and cause them to lose a few seats for an election cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 3 hours ago, ZoomBubba said: The thing is, considering the current state of the GOP base, she's probably not wrong. It is truly something watching the party that produced Lincoln and T. Roosevelt turn willingly turn itself into the piggy bank for an unimaginative and stupid clown because they're scared that said clown's followers might get mad and cause them to lose a few seats for an election cycle. Most conservative movements end up that way, just as most progressive movements end up being taken over by conservatives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Could the Dems flip the refusal to certify script if Trump wins (and SCOTUS does nothing)? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 https://twitter.com/VoteDarkBrandon/status/1761171673284313392 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasqueradeOverture Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Fuckin nuke this timeline 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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