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2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences


NewBluntsworth

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1 hour ago, Icarus27k said:

It would be interesting if we could find a record of Biden's opponent, Trump, forgetting what year he left the presidency. 

...yeah, it's happened already. 

 

Screenshot_20240208-175543.thumb.png.ed67d030535dfeee83695ea0c596ae65.png

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-forgets-what-years-he-was-president-while-on-the-stand-in-ny-fraud-trial

There's gotta be an age limit to this job.

Spoiler

Unless you're Willie Nelson. Willie 2024.

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The executive summary of the Special Counsel's decision on Biden. On the one hand, no provable crime was found. On the other hand, it paints an unflattering picture of Biden. 

A lot of the unflattering criticisms seem gratuitous and subjective opinion. "Mr. Biden has long seen himself as a historical figure"? How does the writer even know that? 

Screenshot_20240208-205352.thumb.png.47c989f2304b4bd9ee666098d37a34aa.png

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We need a candidate other than Biden. Biden has done pretty awesome things for the economy and his consumer protection people are top notch and actually fight for us however there is too much against him.  He is absolutely showing his age and it’s beyond “he’s thinking of another word to not stutter” what he’s done in the ME? Are you kidding?  We’re all supporting genocidal actions in Israel and Biden still wants to be buddies w Netanyahu. Don’t get me wrong, anyone thinking Trump would be different, is insane. He’s not forcing Netanyahu to do anything he’s the president that for no reason started shit and declared Jerusalem the Israel Capital. So we got two terrible candidates. I’m not voting for president this go around because neither candidates deserve to hold the highest office we got. One is a crook and the other is showing their age too much. 

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Biden ‘willfully’ kept classified info, would come off as ‘elderly man with poor memory’ at trial, scathing report says

https://nypost.com/2024/02/08/news/special-counsel-robert-hur-issues-report-on-bidens-mishandling-of-classified-documents/

"President Biden “willfully retained and disclosed classified materials,” special counsel Robert Hur found in a bombshell report released Thursday — though Hur recommended against criminal charges, in part because a jury might well view Biden as an “elderly man with a poor memory.”

Biden, 81, flouted legal restrictions on keeping sensitive documents throughout his 36 years in the Senate and after his eight-year vice presidency — stashing them in cardboard boxes “surrounded by household detritus” in his garage in Wilmington, Del., and other locations, the 388-page report said.

Investigators even uncovered a recording of Biden confiding in his ghostwriter Mark Zwonitzer in April 2017, three months after leaving the vice presidency, that he still had official records because “I didn’t want to turn them in” — sounding similar to former President Donald Trump, who faces 40 criminal charges and up to 450 years in prison for resisting handing over documents after leaving the White House in 2021."

 

Woah boy is there a lot to unpack here. Lets start with the big one, no charges for Biden. All this does is continue to build Trumps case that there is two tiered justice system. One for the "right" group of people, and one for everyone else, because its just (D)ifferent. Really hard to argue that claim either. Biden willfully took classified material and refused to give it back. Same thing Trump did. Biden shared classified material, same as Trump. Growing numbers of Americans, of all political stripes, believe that there is a 2 tiered justice system and this sure builds on that belief. It sure looks like Trump is being prosecuted because hes a political enemy and Biden gets a pass because hes not.

However, In an attempt to discredit that line of attack the special prosecutor went to great lengths to say that the primary reason Biden isnt being charged is because hes a dithering old man who has huge memory problems if not outright dementia. Biden doesnt remember when he was VP, sometimes thinks he still is VP, doesnt remember Afghanistan, and doesnt even remember when his own son died. That is a downright damning statement that confirms what the majority of Americans believe. Biden is just too old for the job and is not mentally capable to be POTUS.

Biden may be avoiding charges and jail time, but this report may have been a fatal punch to his reelection chances. Its impossible for anyone other than the most political of hacks to say that Biden is mentally fit enough to be President.

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11 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

  I’m not voting for president this go around because neither candidates deserve to hold the highest office we got. One is a crook and the other is showing their age too much. 

 

ba2898c0-3cbf-4e9d-bd2e-179fd3e0bede-bestSizeAvailable.webp.95754b3556255d09f5726e03bf859229.webp

 

Join me!  The Jeb! 2024 Write-In campaign is going strong!

(no but really, still vote, just vote 3rd party like I plan to do)

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On 12/21/2023 at 9:12 AM, Master-Debater131 said:

Theres really only one of two ways that this ends.

 Either SCOTUS overrules this decision, or Red and Blue sates rush to find any excuse they have to pull the other parties nominee off the ballot.

 

The safe money is on SCOTUS overruling this decision. Trumps never actually been convicted of anything even remotely close to an Insurrection, so SCOTUS can easily say that CO got it wrong because Trump hasnt been tried and convicted of an Insurrection. Thats a pretty easy ruling that they can make without even touching the bigger question surrounding the 14th amendment.

https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-insurrection-trump-2024-election-397a481d2886b64bba06b24ff3d03f37

The Supreme Court seems poised to reject efforts to kick Trump off the ballot over the Capitol riot

"The Supreme Court seems poised to reject attempts to kick former President Donald Trump off the 2024 ballot, with conservative and liberal justices in apparent agreement in a case that puts them at the heart of a presidential election."

 

 

Called it. SCOTUS is going to toss this thing out whole-hog. The only real question is if its 9-0 or 8-1 at this point. It sure looks like there is near unanimity on this case from SCOTUS that Colorado cant just kick Trump off the ballot. It also looks like they are going to do what I said they would, avoid the whole "insurrection" thing and rule against CO on the technical wording of the 14th amendment. I thought they would take the route that hes never actually been tried and convicted, but instead they appear ready to strike it down because of the actual wording of the 14th Amendment. CO never really had a case this whole time. it was a purely political act that does not have legal standing.

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51 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

 

ba2898c0-3cbf-4e9d-bd2e-179fd3e0bede-bestSizeAvailable.webp.95754b3556255d09f5726e03bf859229.webp

 

Join me!  The Jeb! 2024 Write-In campaign is going strong!

(no but really, still vote, just vote 3rd party like I plan to do)

Someone could offer me a million dollars to vote for Jeb Bush and I would stay broke and stupid.  I can’t vote for that idiot.  I’m not saying there’s no amount of money that could get me to vote for Jeb, but it’s definitely more than a million 

I might write in Williamson or Sanders. Sanders is old but he’s a good example of a sharp elder person.  Like,  I wish to be as mentally acute as Sanders if I ever reach that age. 

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15 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

Someone could offer me a million dollars to vote for Jeb Bush and I would stay broke and stupid.  I can’t vote for that idiot.  I’m not saying there’s no amount of money that could get me to vote for Jeb, but it’s definitely more than a million 

I might write in Williamson or Sanders. Sanders is old but he’s a good example of a sharp elder person.  Like,  I wish to be as mentally acute as Sanders if I ever reach that age. 

Ide take  a million to vote for Jeb. Not like hes going to win anyways lol.

Im waiting to see who shows up on the ballot as a 3rd party out here. Ill pick from that list and vote for them, even if I dont necessarily support all their ideas. Rather protest vote 3rd party than for either of the two "main" options.

I wish "None of the Above" was an option.....

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28 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Ide take  a million to vote for Jeb. Not like hes going to win anyways lol.

Im waiting to see who shows up on the ballot as a 3rd party out here. Ill pick from that list and vote for them, even if I dont necessarily support all their ideas. Rather protest vote 3rd party than for either of the two "main" options.

I wish "None of the Above" was an option.....

None of the above is kinda an option. You can vote for no one.  I wish Biden stuck with “I’m only doing one term” there are democrats out there that can beat Trump but I’m not sure, nope, I’m sure, that Biden isn’t one of them. People are tired of this two options model and the attitude of “well the other guy is worse” every election it’s Douche and Turd Sandwich on the ballot and nothing changes if nothing changes

IMG_5332.thumb.jpeg.f47d637504c04f8a832bc6d47ac8c824.jpeg

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1 minute ago, 1pooh4u said:

None of the above is kinda an option. You can vote for no one.  I wish Biden stuck with “I’m only doing one term” there are democrats out there that can beat Trump but I’m not sure, nope, I’m sure, that Biden isn’t one of them. People are tired of this two options model and the attitude of “well the other guy is worse” every election it’s Douche and Turd Sandwich on the ballot and nothing changes if nothing changes

IMG_5332.thumb.jpeg.f47d637504c04f8a832bc6d47ac8c824.jpeg

I want it on the ballot though. That way they can be embarrassed when they lose to literally no one.

South Park nailed it, and its only more true with time.

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18 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

I never understood the criticism of Biden being old. He just acts like a usual 80-year-old man. 

 

Like, have you ever met one? He's pretty much Biden. 

Yes, he is just like a normal 80-year-old man.

That's the problem.

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1 hour ago, Master-Debater131 said:

I want it on the ballot though. That way they can be embarrassed when they lose to literally no one.

South Park nailed it, and its only more true with time.

I purposely used the 2004 reference instead of the 2016 SP reference because of how long this has been a problem.  I live in NY me not voting for either candidate won’t make a difference anyway. Biden will still take NY. 

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27 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

I purposely used the 2004 reference instead of the 2016 SP reference because of how long this has been a problem.  I live in NY me not voting for either candidate won’t make a difference anyway. Biden will still take NY. 

Hes going to take my state as well. I would rather protest vote a 3rd party candidate though.

Honestly, its been going on longer than that. the 2004 reference was just so perfect that its hard to top.

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21 hours ago, 1pooh4u said:

None of the above is kinda an option. You can vote for no one.  I wish Biden stuck with “I’m only doing one term” there are democrats out there that can beat Trump but I’m not sure, nope, I’m sure, that Biden isn’t one of them. People are tired of this two options model and the attitude of “well the other guy is worse” every election it’s Douche and Turd Sandwich on the ballot and nothing changes if nothing changes

IMG_5332.thumb.jpeg.f47d637504c04f8a832bc6d47ac8c824.jpeg

 

 

I'm not as impressed by South Park as you are.

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16 minutes ago, Icarus27k said:

 

 

I'm not as impressed by South Park as you are.

Idgaf what impresses you because you think Biden is the only choice you see that’s possible. Biden is a weak candidate you are the biggest poster in an 8 page thread on Israel where btw you claimed Israel was committing genocide before they counted their dead after Oct 7 and YET you want to say “Vote Biden” and “rah rah rah Biden” well I guess the country supporting acts of genocide with both US cash and weapons killing, what is it? 30k people mostly all civilians isn’t a big enough deal for you. It doesn’t turn your fuckin stomach to vote and talk about Biden like he’s the only one that can save us?  So don’t you reply to me like you have some intellectual or moral superiority over here because you don’t.  The choices we have been given in candidates for the last 30 years all want the same thing. The Democrats talk but that’s all they do. They serve the same people the republicans serve but you just want to keep that status quo even if it means supporting genocide.  Will Trump do better?  Hell no and THAT is the FUCKIN PROBLEM that you seem to want to CONTINUE FOREVER.   “Vote for Biden. Love the economy ignore the genocide assist” that’s you. That’s how you sound.  

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I've been watching elections for 20 years, and I've noticed some surprising gradual changes about them. One is the switch from Republican to Democratic in the category of "highly engaged" voters. 

When I did my first analysis on an election as an undergrad, Democrats benefited from the broad categories of "adults" or "registered voters" while Republicans benefited from the more narrow category of "likely voters". This lead to Republicans getting a boost whenever pollsters switched over to likely voter screens in the polls. 

Now those categories are reversed. That's why Democratic candidates in special elections can improve on Biden's 2020 margin in their states/districts at a time when Biden's poll numbers are low. 

On average, Democratic candidates have improved upon Biden's 2020 margins by an average of 4 percentage points since 2022.*

 

*

Screenshot_20240210-133109.thumb.png.7e56fc947bf54b9edf72f8e02a7bc40a.png

Edited by Icarus27k
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Considering the "highly engaged voters are Democratic" thing, there's a theory suggested by election watchers like Harry Enten and Nate Cohn that Biden should improve his position when polls switch over to likely voter models. I'm suspecting that too. We'll see if it happens.

 

 

 

Edit: Here's one poll that illustrates the point. Biden's margin against Trump goes from -2 points among adults to 0 among RVs to +3 among LVs. It's just one national poll, somewhat dubious by the inclusion of candidates Kennedy and West, who frankly aren't going to be on the ballots of many states. So take it with those caveats.

 

Screenshot_20240210-140139.thumb.png.0d07fb5bb34a4df7f8379521bf024fb7.png

Edited by Icarus27k
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Lol at the above pic.

 

I tend to think the Special Counsel Robert Hur report, where he says all these unflattering things about Biden's age, is a flash-in-the-pan story that we will forget about in two weeks. And frantic headlines like in that CNN screenshot is the media and pundits blowing whichever way the wind blows.

The Hur report reminds me of the woman who accused Biden of sexual assault in 2020. That lady who has now emigrated to Russia, kind of proving her story was bunk. Remember people were worried in 2020 about that possibly derailing Biden's campaign, and then it didn't? 

 

With that said, Biden's age is an issue that's more long lasting. It is already baked into people's opinions of Biden. You can see this in the insult "Sleepy Joe" that Republicans tried to use in the 2020 campaign. 

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Screenshot_20240210-232453.thumb.png.5a53c9009f1b114e143e509351ea720d.png

 

I did this in 2016, and fortunately my life was greatly improved by it. I've made friendships that are way more meaningful now than before. Maybe that's just something that always happens when you real-life block people you find completely abhorrent itself of tolerating them. 

This is in addition to the benefit of never actually listening to what Trump or any of his voters say. 

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9 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

Screenshot_20240210-232453.thumb.png.5a53c9009f1b114e143e509351ea720d.png

 

I did this in 2016, and fortunately my life was greatly improved by it. I've made friendships that are way more meaningful now than before. Maybe that's just something that always happens when you real-life block people you find completely abhorrent itself of tolerating them. 

This is in addition to the benefit of never actually listening to what Trump or any of his voters say. 

I hate Trump, but I don't think ostracizing his voters is gonna help solve anything. This party politic shit is a farce. There is much common ground to be found getting the shaft from the current corporate welfare state.

But hey, if it helps you personally you do you.

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59 minutes ago, Insipid said:

I hate Trump, but I don't think ostracizing his voters is gonna help solve anything. This party politic shit is a farce. There is much common ground to be found getting the shaft from the current corporate welfare state.

But hey, if it helps you personally you do you.

 

It's more of a personal thing. Like blocking people online. I was hesitant to do it at first out of perhaps some half-baked moral code, I guess. (You're supposed to "tolerate" everyone, right?)

 

I am pleasantly surprised how it has improved my life. Just don't ever talk to people who are abhorrent. If I ever find myself doing so, I excuse myself quickly and never think twice about the encounter.

 

Ignoring people you dislike works. 

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22 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

.... sounds a little ranty and inaccurate.

Inaccurate? You know what.  you’re Jingai but a democrat. What’s inaccurate?  It’s not our bombs falling down on civilians?  Biden still wanting to give billions to a country engaging in genocidal acts?  Oh I’m sorry,  Mayorkas and Biden asked Netanyahu to exercise caution to which the answer was “no”.  So what is inaccurate?  In what way is the US not complicit in the actions of Israel?  What exactly has our government done to help w any of it?   You’re such an inaccurate historian in that thread. Had some pretty strong feelings about it but yet you push Biden endlessly. Congratulations Jingai. 

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14 minutes ago, Icarus27k said:

 

It's more of a personal thing. Like blocking people online. I was hesitant to do it at first out of perhaps some half-baked moral code, I guess. (You're supposed to "tolerate" everyone, right?)

 

I am pleasantly surprised how it has improved my life. Just don't ever talk to people who are abhorrent. If I ever find myself doing so, I excuse myself quickly and never think twice about the encounter.

 

Ignoring people you dislike works. 

Jingai 100%

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‘Squad’ member Cori Bush losing by 22 points in new Dem primary poll

https://nypost.com/2024/02/10/news/squad-member-cori-bush-losing-by-22-points-in-new-dem-primary-poll/

"“Squad” member and US Rep. Cori Bush could lose big in this summer’s Democratic primary, according to a new poll.

A new poll by GOP firm Remington Research finds Bush, (D-Missouri), losing by 22 points to rival Wesley Bell in the Aug. 6 contest.

“It’s a big red flag for far-left Squad lawmakers,” Josh Kraushar, editor-in-chief of Jewish Insider, posted on X. “This data is yet another example why pandering to the left-wing radicalism on Israel in the Dem party is a counterproductive strategy for Biden.”"

 

Not sure about the pollster, but this backs up other polls out there showing Bush likely losing in the primary.

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4 hours ago, 1pooh4u said:

Inaccurate? You know what.  you’re Jingai but a democrat. What’s inaccurate?  It’s not our bombs falling down on civilians?  Biden still wanting to give billions to a country engaging in genocidal acts?  Oh I’m sorry,  Mayorkas and Biden asked Netanyahu to exercise caution to which the answer was “no”.  So what is inaccurate?  In what way is the US not complicit in the actions of Israel?  What exactly has our government done to help w any of it?   You’re such an inaccurate historian in that thread. Had some pretty strong feelings about it but yet you push Biden endlessly. Congratulations Jingai. 

 

 

I don't argue with people online anymore. Sorry about that. I sincerely didn't expect you to go off because I made the point that South Park isn't a good thing to quote. I stand by that point.

You replied to that with something like, "IDGAF because ..." And then you went on an irrelevant topic.

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1 minute ago, Icarus27k said:

 

 

I don't argue with people online anymore. Sorry about that. I sincerely didn't expect you to go off because I made the point that South Park isn't a good thing to quote. I stand by that point.

You replied to that with something like, "IDGAF because ..." And then you went on an irrelevant topic.

It’s not irrelevant because it speaks  directly to why Biden is a terrible candidate.  You want to make back handed comments, thinking no one is going to care or notice, but it doesn’t work like that. You don’t get to start the argument and then say “I don’t argue online anymore”  and yeah image grabs from South Park is actually pretty spot on for what’s going on.  

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20 minutes ago, discolé monade said:

Says the guy that totally pays all his bills all the time.

Just ask any lawyer that's worked for him.

And any venue that's hosted one of his ego rallies.

And anyone that's won a lawsuit against him.

And basically anyone that's ever been his partner in any business venture that went tits up.

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It makes more sense (both the Taylor Swift thing and the NATO thing) when you accept Trump is like a child, doesn't think out what he's going to say, and has no intelligent motivation for why he's about to say it.

 

So you shouldn't listen to him or think too much about it. Trump is just an idiot, says everyone who has ever met him.

 

FyTs2FWWAAAhDxt.thumb.jpeg.e5a8cf36e313ff1ddcfb64f8924fd5d5.jpeg

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