2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences

[Icarus27k]

[André Toulon]

Just a little effort and some spin....

[tsar4]

Not so hot take:  If Trump somehow wins, the next thing he & his ilk will attempt is removing the 22nd amendment.

[Seight]

36 minutes ago, tsar4 said:

Not so hot take:  If Trump somehow wins, the next thing he & his ilk will attempt is removing the 22nd amendment.

Who in his inner circle knows there's more than 10 though?

[katt_goddess]

1 hour ago, Seight said:

Who in his inner circle knows there's more than 10 though?

Most of his base can't even read an entire amendment without getting tired. 

[PenguinBoss]

2 hours ago, Seight said:

Who in his inner circle knows there's more than 10 though?

Numbers?

[naraku360]

17 hours ago, Seight said:

Who in his inner circle knows there's more than 10 though?

You grossly overestimate their ability to count into double digits.

[naraku360]

16 hours ago, katt_goddess said:

Most of his base can't even read an entire amendment without getting tired. 

You grossly overestimate their willingness to read passed the first half of the title.

[Icarus27k]

I just made the mistake of trying to figure out what a Republican is saying. 

 

 

WTF? Pence should have passed voting laws on Jan. 6, 2021? Does he me a quid pro quo: pass these laws or I'm not certifying the electoral college count? If so, sounds dumb and probably criminal. 

 

[katt_goddess]

2 hours ago, naraku360 said:

You grossly overestimate their willingness to read passed the first half of the title.

I grossly overestimate their ability to actually not use a pocket version of the Constitution as a beer coaster. 

[Raptorpat]

The first dropout?

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1696569027202531621?s=20

https://twitter.com/FrancisSuarez/status/1696566861196914997?s=20

Edited August 29, 2023 by Raptorpat

[stilgar]

Who?

[katt_goddess]

Just going to drop this here so everyone can laugh at him, Gov. Buttdumb has gone on the record as saying that he's not interested in being Drumpf's VP because the only jobs he [ Buttdumb ] has ever had are... CEO and Governor and those are the only types of jobs he's interested in.

Keep that in mind the next time you are unfortunate enough to catch one of his interviews where he tries to paint himself as a small town boy with a firm work ethic. 

[Seight]

6 hours ago, stilgar said:

Who?

[Master-Debater131]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4174521-trump-drops-6-points-in-post-debate-gop-poll/

Trump drops 6 points in post-debate GOP poll

"Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley saw the largest boost, with her support jumping from 2 percent to 7 percent after the debate.

The poll found Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 12 percent, up 2 percentage points from before the debate.

Former Vice President Mike Pence got 7 percent support in the poll, up from 3 percent before the debate."

 

This helps answer one question. By not being there Trump did lose support. Hard to say if this will be a lasting trend or if it will force Trump to the debate stage at some point. But it is encouraging to see that the Trump bubble isnt quite as impenetrable as thought.

[1pooh4u]

27 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4174521-trump-drops-6-points-in-post-debate-gop-poll/

Trump drops 6 points in post-debate GOP poll

"Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley saw the largest boost, with her support jumping from 2 percent to 7 percent after the debate.

The poll found Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 12 percent, up 2 percentage points from before the debate.

Former Vice President Mike Pence got 7 percent support in the poll, up from 3 percent before the debate."

 

This helps answer one question. By not being there Trump did lose support. Hard to say if this will be a lasting trend or if it will force Trump to the debate stage at some point. But it is encouraging to see that the Trump bubble isnt quite as impenetrable as thought.

He’s still way ahead though and wasn’t it just one poll from Emerson?

[Master-Debater131]

5 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

He’s still way ahead though and wasn’t it just one poll from Emerson?

Yes hes still way ahead, and there were other polls that showed a softening as well. The biggest thing with the Emerson poll is its Trumps favorite. He routinely said its the best and the one people should look at. So naturally hes been bashing it the last few days. Been funny to watch actually.

[Jman]

Meanwhile Mitch had software issues again -

 

 

 

[1pooh4u]

41 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Yes hes still way ahead, and there were other polls that showed a softening as well. The biggest thing with the Emerson poll is its Trumps favorite. He routinely said its the best and the one people should look at. So naturally hes been bashing it the last few days. Been funny to watch actually.

He always does that. Fox News was great now they suck it’s mind boggling that he still has so much support 

[1pooh4u]

Oh a tree fell on top of the governor’s mansion in Florida with DeSantis family inside. Mother Nature is trying to take out the entire family 😬

https://nypost.com/2023/08/30/huge-tree-just-misses-desantis-mansion-during-idalia/?utm_campaign=iphone_nyp&utm_source=ru.reactivephone.MobileSearch.OpenInSearchUI

Edited August 30, 2023 by 1pooh4u
Wishful thinking

[Raptorpat]

32 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

a house fell

a tree is kind of like a house, for squirrels and birds

[1pooh4u]

55 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

a tree is kind of like a house, for squirrels and birds

Well he’s got a lot in common with the Wicked Witch of the East 🫠

[1pooh4u]

Mitch McConnell had another episode of getting stuck he was asked about will he run in 2026 and he just went all lights on no one’s home at the press conference or whatever you call it 

[Icarus27k]

3 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

Mitch McConnell had another episode of getting stuck he was asked about will he run in 2026 and he just went all lights on no one’s home at the press conference or whatever you call it 

If that really happened immediately after the question was asked, I would think it was a bit. 

[discolé monade]

[katt_goddess]

1 hour ago, 1pooh4u said:

Well he’s got a lot in common with the Wicked Witch of the East 🫠

No coven, grove, temple, circle, etc of any note wants anything to do with that family. 

DeSatan is just begging to be dropped in a vat of Preparation H.

[Seight]

5 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

a tree is kind of like a house, for squirrels and birds

House Hits Other House

[Raptorpat]

https://twitter.com/WSJPolitics/status/1696975982916186394

[Icarus27k]

Will it be impossible for the GOP to ever win a national popular vote again? The evidence of that happening in presidential elections is compelling. If it happens in Congressional elections (national popular vote for U.S. House), that would be significant. I'm going to watch for that in future elections. 

 

We may silently be seeing the growing irrelevance of one of the two big parties. 

[Icarus27k]

In September 1999, Gallup has George W. Bush beating Al Gore 56% to 39%.

In July 2003, Fox News had Bush leading John Kerry 54% to 35%. 

In September 2011, ABC News/WaPo had Mitt Romney beating Barack Obama 49%-45%.

In September 2019, Fox News had Joe Biden beating Donald Trump 52% to 38%.

 

 

Just in case anyone wanted to compare national polls conducted right now. 

[discolé monade]

but why? 

the real question is, which giant corp. has the largest and deepest pocket-who are THEY backing?

[Master-Debater131]

On 8/30/2023 at 8:12 PM, Raptorpat said:

https://twitter.com/WSJPolitics/status/1696975982916186394

[Master-Debater131]

No one wants Joe Biden to run again, even his own party.

This shouldnt be a surprise either. He is not a good President. Biden is currently polling below Trump at the same time in their presidencies. The entire poll is nothing but a bloodbath for Biden. His age is clearly a liability, and its no surprise either. He consistently looks like hes about 1 breath away from keeling over and dying on stage. Hes reminding everyone of Grandpa when Grandpa lost his mind.

On the issues, hes losing badly. The most important issue is always the economy and his numbers there are atrocious. Again, no surprise. The economy is not good and people feel it every day. "Bidenomics" have been a complete failure and people know it. Only people on his payroll or the most partisan of democrats think the economy is working in peoples favor. Everyone else is looking at Biden with general contempt for his economic policies.

Head to head polls are largely useless with our electoral system, but they are instructive. Right now Biden is within the margin of error of every potential GOP candidate except for Nikki Haley. She has a clear lead on Biden right now which is very interesting. For Biden though this is another bad sign. If hes within the margin of error of Trump he is in deep deep trouble. Trump is back in the news in a big way for being arrested, and Biden cant even get clear of him.

Conventional wisdom has been that Trump is unelectable and Biden would cruise to reelection against him, but thats changing. Polling is consistently showing that Biden is an extremely weakened president and his support continues to weaken. If the GOP were smart they would nominate someone who doesnt have the baggage that Trump has and have a much easier path to victory. But even if they dont, Trump really does look like he has a shot at beating Biden thanks to just how weak Biden is.

 

Im going to sick with an earlier prediction. I dont think either Biden or Trump are on the ticket next year. Trump may be "occupied" and Biden is going to get the boot or simply not make it to the election next year.

 

[scoobdog]

All that poll shows is that there is rightly a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Joe Biden.  Your prediction doesn't suggest who would step into the void behind Biden given that nobody had done it so far and there isn't likely to be anyone will to take the kind of sucker punches that Trump had been dishing out to this point.

[Icarus27k]

[Master-Debater131]

I think its pretty obvious who would step in if Biden isnt the nominee, Gavin Newsom.  Hes been running a shadow campaign for months.  Hes making a calculated bet that if Biden were unable to run in 24 hes would become the default nominee. Kamala is not going to be the nominee because she would get just crushed by any GOP candidate, even Trump. Newsom is clearly positioning himself as the "fall back" option for if/when Biden cant run in 24.

[scoobdog]

Gavin has repeatedly said he won't run.  That's not to say he will or won't, but he's already put himself in a position where he can't just step in without paying a penalty for flopping on a prior commitment.  In fact, the only way he can avoid this is if something really drastic happens... like Biden becomes too ill to continue and nobody else steps into the void.  Newsome knows that he can burnish his credentials better as a surrogate than he can as a candidate because he can use his pulpit to point out GOP flaws while the state's legislature pumps through his agenda.  Once he becomes a candidate, a lot has to change in how he messages his record as a governor and his vision for the country overall.  Calling him a potential fall-back option minimizes the significant amount of events that have to occur to make it even possible let alone feasible.

[Icarus27k]

There is no secret plan to replace Biden as the nominee. Democrats aren't cynical enough to conspire against each other at that level. If Biden were to die tomorrow, the Democratic primary race would be completely open. 

Newsom is ambitious and probably wants to get elected POTUS someday, but so does every current U.S. senator. 

[katt_goddess]

I put zero faith in the intelligence of people who vote republican because 'ECONOMY!' and then say nothing when said elected republicans either do absolutely nothing to make anything better or outright push for anything that makes things worse so they can blame democrats for the 'ECONOMY!'. 

Further, the exact same people who cry about Biden's age being an absolute factor in why he needs to go this second don't say anything about ANYTHING their golden fraud hero is up to including HIS age. They won't even kick out Yertle and he's actively shutting down on the public stage. 

[scoobdog]

21 minutes ago, Icarus27k said:

There is no secret plan to replace Biden as the nominee. Democrats aren't cynical enough to conspire against each other at that level. If Biden were to die tomorrow, the Democratic primary race would be completely open. 

Newsom is ambitious and probably wants to get elected POTUS someday, but so does every current U.S. senator. 

Except none of those senators has done much to carry the party standard.  The reason Newsome comes up is because he's putting himself out there as a party leader even if he's not running an actual election campaign.  He's playing to a lot of expectations and that fuels conspiracies alongside idle speculation.

No, the bigger takeaway from recent polling is that Biden is going to have an enthusiasm gap that means he has to work harder than a typical incumbent President for his reelection.  He can't campaign like that now, this far away from the general election, because that has its own stigma.  Eventually he'll have to stump aggressively, but that's not something we didn't know already.

[Master-Debater131]

35 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

Gavin has repeatedly said he won't run.  That's not to say he will or won't, but he's already put himself in a position where he can't just step in without paying a penalty for flopping on a prior commitment.  In fact, the only way he can avoid this is if something really drastic happens... like Biden becomes too ill to continue and nobody else steps into the void.  Newsome knows that he can burnish his credentials better as a surrogate than he can as a candidate because he can use his pulpit to point out GOP flaws while the state's legislature pumps through his agenda.  Once he becomes a candidate, a lot has to change in how he messages his record as a governor and his vision for the country overall.  Calling him a potential fall-back option minimizes the significant amount of events that have to occur to make it even possible let alone feasible.

Except thats exactly what he is doing. He isnt running a campaign in the true sense of the word, hes running a shadow campaign. Hes campaigning without actually launching a campaign. His entire strategy is to build an image as the guy who can step in if Biden cant run. Hes holding events, having fundraisers, visiting key states, having media appearances, and doing everything a candidate does with the exception of actually launching a campaign.
Everyone recognizes that Biden has lost a step and is in serious mental decline. Frankly, hes probably got no better than a 50/50 shot at actually surviving to the 24 election.

Newsom realizes this and is doing everything he can to be the first option if Biden either cant, or isnt around to, run next year.

[scoobdog]

2 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Except thats exactly what he is doing. He isnt running a campaign in the true sense of the word, hes running a shadow campaign. Hes campaigning without actually launching a campaign. His entire strategy is to build an image as the guy who can step in if Biden cant run. Hes holding events, having fundraisers, visiting key states, having media appearances, and doing everything a candidate does with the exception of actually launching a campaign.
Everyone recognizes that Biden has lost a step and is in serious mental decline. Frankly, hes probably got no better than a 50/50 shot at actually surviving to the 24 election.

Newsom realizes this and is doing everything he can to be the first option if Biden either cant, or isnt around to, run next year.

THere's a difference between running a shadow campaign and building base.  No one's dumb enough to think that he doesn't have higher aspirations; we just know that he's playing a long game and doing exceedingly well at it.

And you're playing into the myth of the feeble Biden.

[katt_goddess]

Always remember that the same people who think someone who took a weekend to rest after tripping on a sandbag is feeble think this is the height of health - 

[Seight]

2 hours ago, katt_goddess said:

Always remember that the same people who think someone who took a weekend to rest after tripping on a sandbag is feeble think this is the height of health - 

"A svelte 215 pounds"

[katt_goddess]

20 hours ago, Seight said:

"A svelte 215 pounds"

Yeah. If that's 215 lbs, then I'm a size zero with A cups.

[Top Gun]

Yep, and I can totally still fit into my skinny pants from middle school.

[naraku360]

On 9/8/2023 at 5:43 PM, Seight said:

"A svelte 215 pounds"

"What do you mean that's only 268 dollars?! I'm worth so much more, you wouldn't believe it!"

Edited September 10, 2023 by naraku360

[Icarus27k]

I'm thinking North Carolina will be the next Republican-voting state to go blue in a presidential election. It's not that far behind Georgia in terms of its demographics shifts. 

 

[Master-Debater131]

Bidenomics!

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/09/median-household-income.html

Real median household income after taxes fell 8.8% to $64,240 from 2021 to 2022 and the poverty rate after taxes as measured by the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) increased 59% to 12.4%.

These significant changes in after-tax income and poverty rates of U.S. households were much larger than the annual changes in before-tax income and poverty, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released today.

 

Bidenomics in action!

[stilgar]

It's almost like the economy got fucked in the ass from a pandemic and decades of corporate greed. Also, it seems the vast majority of people who cry about "bidenomics" are braindead far right idiots.