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2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences


NewBluntsworth

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Assuming Trump loses in November, this really will be his last hurrah. A loss means Trump is definitely going to prison.

Trump himself might freak out when he realizes he lost because he'll know there's no stopping the consequences of his actions reaching him. 

 

Vote against Trump in November like it means he'll go away forever when he loses. 

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14 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

Assuming Trump loses in November, this really will be his last hurrah. A loss means Trump is definitely going to prison.

Trump himself might freak out when he realizes he lost because he'll know there's no stopping the consequences of his actions reaching him. 

 

Vote against Trump in November like it means he'll go away forever when he loses. 

 bless

 

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14 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

Vote against Trump in November like it means he'll go away forever when he loses. 

There is no assuming with this presidential election and unreasonableness of the Republican Party.  If voting to send him to prison is what it takes to get voters out, so be it.

As a progressive, I totally understand the disillusionment that my fellow Americans are experiencing,  Anti-semitism continues to run rampant even as Arab Americans are witnessing a genocide of their own.  Asian Americans continue to be targeted on the streets, Latino Americans are branded as aliens on land they've inhabited for centuries and Black Americans continue to die a the hands of not just cops but an unfeeling health care system.  Meanwhile white Americans continue to whine about how they're being persecuted.  Like it or not, Biden really is overseeing an America at a low point, and the misdirections that the Republican Party use with their tired talking points distract from the very real malaise that voters have about the state of their home.

The problem has always been a fundamental misunderstanding about what's happening.  To an extent, Biden has to own the fact that the people who sent him to the White House are not living better lives than they were under Trump... or Obama and George W before him.  At the same time, it's not fair to simply ask these same voters to choose "the lesser of two evils" when it doesn't alleviate their suffering.  Nonetheless, the problems that are truly affecting this country and its morale can't be addressed by a vote or a new law or a policy decision.  Anti-semitism exists because the average American citizen turns a blind eye to the attitudes that underpin it.  It's the same with institutional racism - its easy to protest against a police shooting, but what are we doing about giving Black Americans a better shot at an equal education and the opportunities that come with it?  Individual local policies that address inequalities are sorely absent with increasingly compressed opportunites to address them.

That is why its important to send Trump to hell and give Biden a second term.

Biden is not going to fix our problems for us because no Democrat, no matter how Progressive can.  The girdlock we see in Congress is a function of the system not an impediment to it - it's an example of what needs to happen when conservative polities represent a true threat freedom.  At the core of it is an understanding that both Republicans and Democrats acknowledge; government can't force people to be altruistic.  If Trump is allowed to be President, he will break that gridlock and we will see a restrictions to our freedoms - there will be attacks on reproductive rights, there will be moratoriums on programs meant to deal with racial inequality in education and finance, and there will be no safety nets against open racism from extremist elements.  If Biden is retained, we continue as we are and we take the  lesson to heart that we need  take ownership for our communities and start voting on local policies that take into account people different from us and less advantaged as us even if it isn't in our best interest.  It shouldn't be simple and it means we have to rediscover our faith in humanity, but the choice is stark.

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Democrats' big vulnerability: Why they're losing Black, Hispanic voters

https://www.axios.com/2024/03/13/why-democrats-black-hispanic-vote-republican

"New data shows that Democrats' longtime advantage with Black, Latino and Asian American voters has shrunk to its lowest point in more than 60 years — creating a massive vulnerability for President Biden and congressional Democrats.

Why it matters: One of the most loyal parts of the Democratic coalition is suddenly in danger. Black and Hispanic men could vote Republican in numbers not seen since President Dwight D. Eisenhower was elected in the 1950s.

The big picture: Latinos, the nation's largest non-white group, still lean Democratic. But they've been shifting Republican over the last two decades, and are no longer the slam-dunk Democrats they were in 1960 when JFK ran for president."

 

This is something that has been happening for a while now. Democrats have largely become the party of rich coastal and urban white people. They progressive element of the party has lurched the party to the left and they have abandoned the working class. This shift has put the assumption that demographic shifts would guarantee a permanent democratic majority on its death bed. It also has opened up ways for the GOP to pick up enough votes among the working class to shift elections. Theres a reason the Rust Belt is firmly in play this year, and a lot of it has to do with the working class being abandoned by Democrats.

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I read that Financial Times article too. The evidence is partially based on crosstabs of current Biden vs. Trump polls, which have huge margins of error and aren't predictive of the November general election. The subgroups of African-Americans and Hispanics in such a poll can have a MOE of plus or minus 10 points. 

 

Keep in mind it's March, and in past election cycles we didn't pay attention to general election polls yet. 

 

My conclusion is a FT reporter is searching for a story and finding information to craft the story he wanted. 

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Missed this when it came out, but its one of the polls taken after the SOTU.  There has not been any post-SOTU bounce for Biden. The RCP average shows that all polls taken since the SOTU continue to show Trump with a lead. A 3 or 5 way race is just as bad for Biden. Its even worse in battleground states where Trump has the lead outside of the MoE in a majority of polls.

Biden is currently losing this race. He is a deeply unpopular president, and he is going to struggle to change that mindset this late in the game.

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He's not a "deeply unpopular president."  That's you exaggerating.  But, it's still not a surprise that Biden isn't popular given that the theme has always been that neither presidential candidate is the one voters wants to see.  Again, the poll is within a standard margin-of-error, is months away from the conventions themselves, and, isn't likely to reflect those who are undecided (which, at this point, is going to be a larger percentage than usual because of the candidates).

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He absolutely is deeply unpopular.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating

RCP continues to show his approval being very poor. He has an average negative of 15 points. Thats deeply unpopular.

You cant put lipstick on this pig. Biden is not a popular president. His popularity is coming almost entirely from Democrats at this point. Independents are not supporting him. He has somewhere between a 20-30% approval among Independents depending on the poll. That is absolutely horrible for any candidate to have.

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4 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Democrats' big vulnerability: Why they're losing Black, Hispanic voters

https://www.axios.com/2024/03/13/why-democrats-black-hispanic-vote-republican

"New data shows that Democrats' longtime advantage with Black, Latino and Asian American voters has shrunk to its lowest point in more than 60 years — creating a massive vulnerability for President Biden and congressional Democrats.

Why it matters: One of the most loyal parts of the Democratic coalition is suddenly in danger. Black and Hispanic men could vote Republican in numbers not seen since President Dwight D. Eisenhower was elected in the 1950s.

The big picture: Latinos, the nation's largest non-white group, still lean Democratic. But they've been shifting Republican over the last two decades, and are no longer the slam-dunk Democrats they were in 1960 when JFK ran for president."

 

This is something that has been happening for a while now. Democrats have largely become the party of rich coastal and urban white people. They progressive element of the party has lurched the party to the left and they have abandoned the working class. This shift has put the assumption that demographic shifts would guarantee a permanent democratic majority on its death bed. It also has opened up ways for the GOP to pick up enough votes among the working class to shift elections. Theres a reason the Rust Belt is firmly in play this year, and a lot of it has to do with the working class being abandoned by Democrats.

 

 

 

The change among African-Americans and Hispanics over 25 years has not been from Democrat to Republican but from Democrat to independent. I'm willing to bet they very much distrust the GOP. 

 

Screenshot_20240314-150939.thumb.png.5deb8f3b5dce3fca51d4a00906d528bc.png

Screenshot_20240314-150753.thumb.png.c9b73725c18ea032f3ad850ae0a5b4bb.png

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One of my new things is searching the Twitter accounts of Nate Silver/Nate Cohn/Dave Wasserman/every other expert on elections from early 2020 and see how much they commented on the general election.

It wasn't much. Almost like it wasn't important yet. 

Edited by Icarus27k
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The rich want a conservative government that doesn’t impede their profits.  Not a dictatorship.  If the GOP and their goals don’t align, they’ll make a new Conservative Party to replace the GOP.

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3 hours ago, Jman said:

The rich want a conservative government that doesn’t impede their profits.  Not a dictatorship.  If the GOP and their goals don’t align, they’ll make a new Conservative Party to replace the GOP.

They'd be happiest with a dictatorship that doesn't impede their profits.

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2 minutes ago, naraku360 said:

They'd be happiest with a dictatorship that doesn't impede their profits.

A dictatorship is actually shit for corpos, save those in the inner circle.  Government control, seizure of assets if you back the wrong horse, etc.  Most conservatives would rather a government with weak controls, which dictatorships notoriously have plenty of.

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6 minutes ago, Jman said:

A dictatorship is actually shit for corpos, save those in the inner circle.  Government control, seizure of assets if you back the wrong horse, etc.  Most conservatives would rather a government with weak controls, which dictatorships notoriously have plenty of.

While it may sound counterintuitive, dictatorships backed by corporations are a fairly common occurrence. They can buy privileges normal people can't or influence policy making.

America functions not dissimilarly. We're not a dictatorship necessarily, but popular opinion rarely has a fraction of the impact of money. The lack of real power voters have and the dramatic overreach of the wealthy makes us not all that far off from a corporate dictatorship. If you push corporate America and the GOP policymakers to the logical conclusion of their combined greed, I doubt a GOP-led dictatorship would hurt corporations given how much power corporations have had in building the present system.

I'm pretty sure this is a who rather than what. Trump is financially destitute, legally fucked, and the GOP can't get rid of him. I'm not convinced a GOP frontrunner as obviously frothing at the mouth to become a dictator as Trump is would get the same rejection. Trump has insane, unprecedented baggage.

They aren't bailing on him out of dislike toward dictators. They're bailing on him because their lizard brains only comprehend stimulations relating to money, of which Trump clearly has none.

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12 hours ago, naraku360 said:

While it may sound counterintuitive, dictatorships backed by corporations are a fairly common occurrence. They can buy privileges normal people can't or influence policy making.

America functions not dissimilarly. We're not a dictatorship necessarily, but popular opinion rarely has a fraction of the impact of money. The lack of real power voters have and the dramatic overreach of the wealthy makes us not all that far off from a corporate dictatorship. If you push corporate America and the GOP policymakers to the logical conclusion of their combined greed, I doubt a GOP-led dictatorship would hurt corporations given how much power corporations have had in building the present system.

I'm pretty sure this is a who rather than what. Trump is financially destitute, legally fucked, and the GOP can't get rid of him. I'm not convinced a GOP frontrunner as obviously frothing at the mouth to become a dictator as Trump is would get the same rejection. Trump has insane, unprecedented baggage.

They aren't bailing on him out of dislike toward dictators. They're bailing on him because their lizard brains only comprehend stimulations relating to money, of which Trump clearly has none.

Jman is right, though.  It is counterintuitive because it's mostly incorrect.

Corporations almost never support consolidation of power inside their home borders for the simple reason that there needs to be a physical separation between corporate leaders and the banana republic strongmen they control.  To put in simpler terms - major corporations can "control" a dictator from afar by feeding him resources, funds, or even man power in exchange for exclusive access, land grants, and/or markets, but this only works if there is an effective mechanism for cutting off the supply line when that dictator doesn't provide what he's asked to.

Russia is an extremely poor example because the current government was predicated on an oligarchy rather than a dictatorship, but it proves a valuable cautionary tale about why power consolidation inside of ones borders is so extremely risky.  There is only one way to consolidate power effectively, and the same rules apply for those ruling by themselves or as part of a select group.  Oligarchies end up failing fairly quickly because the consolidation process is fundamentally undemocratic, which breed mistrust among the stakeholders and leaves an opening for one person to eliminate his rivals.

To the contrary, corporations want and expect a weak democratic system inside their own borders where they can act without interference.

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1 minute ago, scoobdog said:

Jman is right, though.  It is counterintuitive because it's mostly incorrect.

Corporations almost never support consolidation of power inside their home borders for the simple reason that there needs to be a physical separation between corporate leaders and the banana republic strongmen they control.  To put in simpler terms - major corporations can "control" a dictator from afar by feeding him resources, funds, or even man power in exchange for exclusive access, land grants, and/or markets, but this only works if there is an effective mechanism for cutting off the supply line when that dictator doesn't provide what he's asked to.

Russia is an extremely poor example because the current government was predicated on an oligarchy rather than a dictatorship, but it proves a valuable cautionary tale about why power consolidation inside of ones borders is so extremely risky.  There is only one way to consolidate power effectively, and the same rules apply for those ruling by themselves or as part of a select group.  Oligarchies end up failing fairly quickly because the consolidation process is fundamentally undemocratic, which breed mistrust among the stakeholders and leaves an opening for one person to eliminate his rivals.

To the contrary, corporations want and expect a weak democratic system inside their own borders where they can act without interference.

I never said it was intelligent. I'd argue most of America's mega-wealthy are 2nd and 3rd (or more) generation of wealth and fundamentally don't understand the limitations of their power. Or have simply been rich for so long they've forgotten what the outside world is like.

I'm not confident that dipshits like Elon Musk or Donald Trump have any concept of what losing power could look like, until now that it's too late to fix. Jingle some coins and they'll be your best friend until you hurt their fragile feelings.

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8 minutes ago, naraku360 said:

I never said it was intelligent. I'd argue most of America's mega-wealthy are 2nd and 3rd (or more) generation of wealth and fundamentally don't understand the limitations of their power. Or have simply been rich for so long they've forgotten what the outside world is like.

I'm not confident that dipshits like Elon Musk or Donald Trump have any concept of what losing power could look like, until now that it's too late to fix. Jingle some coins and they'll be your best friend until you hurt their fragile feelings.

Can't really comment on that, per se.  Regardless, those same wealthy individuals regardless of how they come into their wealth know that they can prop up weak leaders easily.  When one such weak leader is willing to attack the system and push a fringe agenda, they're at least smart enough to know that the risk does not meet the potential reward.

Trump got corporate support the first time around because corporations saw him as being weak and potentially ineffectual.  Now that he's proven to be weak and effectually destructive, he isn't particularly appealing.  Jaded as this might sound, Biden is a much better target for such corporate pressure because he's not only unlikely to cause the mass harm that Trump can, he's also likely a lame duck leading a highly partisan Congress which will effectively kill major legislative changes from wither side of the political divide.  In any other situation, that would be the only reason you would need to vote against him, but in this situation it says less about the man and more about the government we've given him to lead.

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2 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Well now, thats a pretty big deal. Texas is now allowed to arrest illegal immigrants within its borders. At least, they can for now. The case itself will still need to be heard, tried, and likely appealed to SCOTUS no matter how this goes.

 

This will last exactly as long as it takes for people to realize they are just pulling people off the streets for 'not looking American' and the various officers and police stations start getting sued by those same Americans. 

 

As for Dumpy not getting money, go figure that the walking wallets are starting to run very dry. Even those numbnuts that insisted on rolling coal during Obama stopped that stupidity when they realized that they could buy gas to waste or buy beer but not both. Apparently he has f*cked around enough that he is now finding out that no bondsman in the entire country is willing to back his dumb bankruptcy-declaring ass for his NY case.

And he's also thinking of getting Manafort back to fundraise again...despite all the fraud and general bullshit he was held accountable for leading up to the previous Dumpsterfire presidency. Manafort went to jail and got pardoned by that Dumpsterfire - if he signs up for this again, someone should remind him that there won't be any pardons a second time. :| No fancy ostrich jackets this time. He'll be lucky if he can borrow a used feather boa from Santos. 

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35 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

Trump begs his supporters to send him 456 million dollars so that he doesn’t lose his ivory tower in NY or his other NY properties. His poorest supporters will donate their entire SSD and SSI checks to him and Trump will cash them happily 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-campaign-pleads-one-million-donations-cash-crunch-looms-2024-03-20/

 

Yeah, but will it meet the goal?  That’s doubtful.  And bankruptcy, the usual out here, would screw with his ability to raise campaign funds.

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13 minutes ago, André Toulon said:

I'll donate if I can be part owner. Sounds like a cheap way to get vacation property 

You won’t get any property but you might qualify for a pair of gold sneakers 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/03/08/5-ways-to-wear-trumps-sneakers-no-really-00145512
 

wow they’re $300 and they already flipped pairs on eBay for $5k. wtf is wrong w people 😳

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Just now, Jman said:

Yeah, but will it meet the goal?  That’s doubtful.  And bankruptcy, the usual out here, would screw with his ability to raise campaign funds.

I doubt he’ll reach the goal, but you never know. Every time I think he’s done. He isn’t. Whatever people think they know about the rules goes straight into the garbage when it comes to Trump. 

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