2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences

[Raptorpat]

Yeah head to head polls this early are functionally meaningless 

[Icarus27k]

I think Biden would be in trouble if a serious Democrat (not RFK Jr; I mean c'mon) challenged him and made the case:

Under Biden's watch, women have lost the right to abortion and affirmative action has been eliminated. Biden has done nothing serious in response. If Biden is reelected, marriage equality will end. 

[Icarus27k]

And then, run on a promise of IF voters elect enough Democrats to the House and Senate, the Supreme Court will be expanded, Puerto Rico will be granted statehood if they desire it, and the process of statehood for the District of Columbia will begin in Congress. 

[Raptorpat]

3 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

If Biden is reelected, marriage equality will end. 

Do you fall into the camp that the Senate-negotiated bill that passed wasn't good enough?

[katt_goddess]

6 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

I think Biden would be in trouble if a serious Democrat (not RFK Jr; I mean c'mon) challenged him and made the case:

Under Biden's watch, women have lost the right to abortion and affirmative action has been eliminated. Biden has done nothing serious in response. If Biden is reelected, marriage equality will end. 

When it comes to a future of lost rights, it doesn't really matter who gets elected as long as there is a 'majority' of MAGAt GOP in either House or Senate and the current creatures of the SCROTUS can continue to get paid to knock and block anything that is for all the American people in favor of whatever pipedream is being pushed by the dude that sent them a bottle of Napoleon's dick-print champagne wrapped in an original Hitler watercolor.

Biden gets reelected, they'll push through garbage, block actual meaningful anything, blame him for everything negative and claim he's being a horrible evil fascist if he tries anything that they consider an attempt to go over their personal precious heads.

Any current GOP nominee gets elected, all 'rights' will be determined by a collection of very special [ white, 'christian', male ] people allowed to make those decisions openly and anyone that dares to say anything against that new normal will be called a horrible evil fascist. 

Summary - people who don't even know what words mean are going to cry and cause problems either way. 

[Icarus27k]

3 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

Do you fall into the camp that the Senate-negotiated bill that passed wasn't good enough?

 

Yes. I'm alarmed. The Respect for Marriage Act would just force all states to recognize marriages performed in other states. If the Supreme Court overturns Obergerfell v Hodges (2015), states that don't want marriage equality can stop issuing licenses for new couples.

That is unacceptable.

[Icarus27k]

I realize there is a LOT going on in the world right now, but the right to marriage being under threat is unacceptable. And Biden reacting with "I'm concerned about what expanding the Court will do to partisanship in America" is unacceptable.

That nostalgia for long dead bipartisanship will cost every oppressed group their rights. 

[MasqueradeOverture]

[rpgamer]

I'd also enjoy seeing an alternative with Abbott. Instead of getting caught at the airport fleeing to Cancun during Texas' next crisis, he decides to take a more stealthy route..

[Seight]

We are now at the "I am mildly disappointed that it was an art critic, and not in fact RFK Jr., who farted" portion of the Presidential campaign.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/rfk-jr-on-issues-natural-gas-climate-crisis-b2375325.html

[scoobdog]

1 hour ago, Seight said:

We are now at the "I am mildly disappointed that it was an art critic, and not in fact RFK Jr., who farted" portion of the Presidential campaign.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/rfk-jr-on-issues-natural-gas-climate-crisis-b2375325.html

That is surreal, even by current election standards.

[Raptorpat]

Y'all gotta read the NYPost take https://pagesix.com/2023/07/12/rfk-jr-press-dinner-explodes-in-war-of-words-and-farts/

[katt_goddess]

"miserable blob"

Farts.

 

[scoobdog]

That play by play misused sadly too much for my taste.

[Raptorpat]

a bit more predictive than polls at this stage, Dems have been over performing in special elections this year

 

[Icarus27k]

I think the 2022 midterm added to the evidence that as long as the dynamics are "normal versus the Trump party" voters will choose normal. 

This actually raises interesting questions about the viability of the GOP in the long run.

Edited July 19, 2023 by Icarus27k

[Master-Debater131]

1 hour ago, Raptorpat said:

a bit more predictive than polls at this stage, Dems have been over performing in special elections this year

 

This isnt quite as predictive as it used to be. In 2020 the GOP was over performing and lost, then in 2022 they were over performing and had a seriously underwhelming night.

What we have seen is across the country all the "safe" districts arent quite as safe as they used to be. Both Dems and Republicans have started to show up even in races where their district leans heavily to the other party. This looks like one of those cases. Its an R+23 district so many Dems didnt bother to show up historically. Now they are. Its still a R district, but the depressed D vote is showing up. That has some pretty interesting implications when you look at state and federal races.

[Raptorpat]

According to that spreadsheet, there was a slight aggregate Dem lean in both of those special election cycles.

In both cases I'd say that basically matches the General Election results.

[Raptorpat]

Also big news today that Sununu is stepping aside in NH.

 

[Master-Debater131]

No Lables run?

 

Doesnt make a lot of sense for him to leave unless he had other plans. He ruled out running for the GOP, but he may be tempted to try a No Labels 3rd party run.

[Raptorpat]

I thought he seemed pretty serious about not running for president in general.

[Master-Debater131]

True, but things might have changed. Trump is still the front runner for the GOP even though he is staring down a 3rd indictment and Biden is the presumed nominee for Dems even though he looks like he might literally keel over and die at any moment.

Knowing that thats the "competition" could have him reconsidering a run. Is it an uphill battle? Absolutely. But no one really wants either Biden or Trump so theres a very clear 3rd lane developing.

[Icarus27k]

Marjorie Taylor Greene explains all the good Biden has done.

[Seight]

5 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

Marjorie Taylor Greene explains all the good Biden has done.

Damn, beat me to it.

[Master-Debater131]

20 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

True, but things might have changed. Trump is still the front runner for the GOP even though he is staring down a 3rd indictment and Biden is the presumed nominee for Dems even though he looks like he might literally keel over and die at any moment.

Knowing that thats the "competition" could have him reconsidering a run. Is it an uphill battle? Absolutely. But no one really wants either Biden or Trump so theres a very clear 3rd lane developing.

Like I said

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3876

"With the 2024 presidential race potentially pitting a current and former president against each other and more than a dozen other candidates officially seeking their party's presidential nomination, voters are evenly split about voting for a third-party candidate, with 47 percent saying they would consider voting for a third-party candidate in the 2024 presidential election and 47 percent say they would not consider it, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University national poll released today.

Independents say more than 2 to 1 (64 - 30 percent) that they would consider voting for a third-party candidate in the 2024 presidential election while Democrats (61 - 35 percent) and Republicans (57 - 38 percent) say they would not consider it."

 

 

There is a very clear 3rd party lane opening up thanks to how awful both the Democrat and Republican presumed nominees are.

[1pooh4u]

MTG should continue campaigning for Joe. She’s very good at it. 

[1pooh4u]

1 hour ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Like I said

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3876

"With the 2024 presidential race potentially pitting a current and former president against each other and more than a dozen other candidates officially seeking their party's presidential nomination, voters are evenly split about voting for a third-party candidate, with 47 percent saying they would consider voting for a third-party candidate in the 2024 presidential election and 47 percent say they would not consider it, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University national poll released today.

Independents say more than 2 to 1 (64 - 30 percent) that they would consider voting for a third-party candidate in the 2024 presidential election while Democrats (61 - 35 percent) and Republicans (57 - 38 percent) say they would not consider it."

 

 

There is a very clear 3rd party lane opening up thanks to how awful both the Democrat and Republican presumed nominees are.

Honestly I been thinking about ditching the democrat party and registering as an independent because of how awful both sides actually are. What stops me is in my state I would no longer be able to vote in primaries, and I’m still of the mind it’s more important for me to stay a reg dem so that I can try to get more progressive democrats in the ticket than leaving out of just disgust. Sometimes I think the democrats are intentionally incompetent because they actually want the same things republicans want but it’s better they act powerless than telling us the truth

[scoobdog]

4 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

Honestly I been thinking about ditching the democrat party and registering as an independent because of how awful both sides actually are. What stops me is in my state I would no longer be able to vote in primaries, and I’m still of the mind it’s more important for me to stay a reg dem so that I can try to get more progressive democrats in the ticket than leaving out of just disgust. Sometimes I think the democrats are intentionally incompetent because they actually want the same things republicans want but it’s better they act powerless than telling us the truth

Personally, I'm holding out for AOC in the following election.  She's been, improbably, flying under the radar most of this administration while her fellow squad mates have stepped in it on occasion.  As long as she's around, there's a real chance that Democrats can become relevant again.

[Master-Debater131]

23 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

Honestly I been thinking about ditching the democrat party and registering as an independent because of how awful both sides actually are. What stops me is in my state I would no longer be able to vote in primaries, and I’m still of the mind it’s more important for me to stay a reg dem so that I can try to get more progressive democrats in the ticket than leaving out of just disgust. Sometimes I think the democrats are intentionally incompetent because they actually want the same things republicans want but it’s better they act powerless than telling us the truth

Its not so much that they are intentionally incompetent as they are owned by the same people who own the GOP. When you realize that the GOP and Democrats are both owned by the same people and companies things make a lot more sense. Functionally there isn't really a difference between the two anymore, its all just show. They both are working to make sure that the middle class shrinks, lower class suffers, and their corporate overloads continue to make more money. They just go about it in different ways, but their end goal is the same. "Fuck you" - Congress

[Master-Debater131]

Bidens age is a problem, and its become such a liability to his campaign that staffers are actively working to hide just how badly he has aged.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/joe-biden-age-re-election-short-stairs-air-force-one-rcna95355

"WASHINGTON — The president of the United States tripping and falling is never a good moment in the throes of a re-election campaign. But when the president is 80 years old and already faces concerns that he’s too old for another term, it’s something of a crisis.

Joe Biden’s aides realized they had a problem last month when the president tripped over a sandbag — hard — at the Air Force Academy’s graduation ceremony. Afterward, during a post-event recap, a few aides tried to figure out what may have gone wrong and how to make sure that such an embarrassing and dangerous incident “never happens again,” according to two people familiar with the discussion.

“You can’t be too careful,” one said.

Biden’s answer to voters who question whether he’s up to the rigors of a second term is simple: “Watch me.” The trouble is, voters are watching, and what they’re seeing is hardening impressions that it’s time for him to step aside, polling shows. Apart from being the most taxing job on the world stage, the presidency is also the most public, and signs of advancing age are tough to miss."

 

 

There is a very real chance that Biden wont even make it to the election next year. His mental state is degrading before our eyes, and his is clearly at a point where he shouldnt be in charge of anything, let alone the nuclear codes. Everyone knows this, even Democrats, but they dont want to openly say it. For Democrats they cant say it because if they try to force him off of the ticket then that leaves them with Kamala as the only one who can run, and she would lose to literally anyone the GOP nominates, even Trump. She is such a horrible candidate that Tulsi Gabbard ended her campaign. Kamala is basically the Chris Christie of Democrats, but with smaller boobs.

Some Dems have been running a shadow campaign knowing this. Newsom has clearly been running a Presidential campaign without making it official. Hes playing the odds that Biden wont be the nominee. Hes counting on something happening in the next 12 months that forces Biden off the ticket and opens a path for him to jump Kamala and be the nominee.

[Icarus27k]

On 5/23/2023 at 6:07 PM, Icarus27k said:

 

I don't see how this WON'T be an election catastrophe if Trump is the GOP nominee. 

 

I still believe Republicans are going to sober up and choose DeSantis or someone. When it gets real to them that Trump may be behind bars in November 2024. 

 

I'm starting to think I was wrong. The voters who choose a GOP primary don't care about winning a general election. They are voting out of emotion and stupidity. 

[Icarus27k]

 

Congratulations to Biden on his reelection.

 

(Any of the five on the right would have a good chance of defeating Biden, but Republicans are going to choose the guy who will be in prison in November 2024.) 

[Icarus27k]

Democrats are drastically overperforming in 2023's special elections. Is it a clue for Biden vs. Trump?

Some Republicans, however, caution against "reading too much into specials."

Looking ahead to 2024, Democrats concede some cause for concern -- including President Joe Biden's anemic approval rating and early polls forecasting a repeat race against former President Donald Trump in which Biden either ties or trails, due in part to a notable chunk of undecided voters and apprehension over Biden's age and acuity, which he has repeatedly dismissed.

But Democrats also say that based on 2023 so far, they see plenty of reason for optimism about their chances with voters.

An analysis from FiveThirtyEight found that in 38 special elections held so far this year, Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean -- or the relative liberal or conservative history -- of the areas where the races were held by an average of 10%, both romping in parts of the country that typically support the party while cutting down on GOP margins in red cities and counties, too.

For instance, the Democratic candidate in a Wisconsin State Assembly special election last month lost by just 7 points in an area where Republicans have a 22-point edge and where Trump beat Biden by almost 17 points in 2020.

In a New Hampshire special election in May for a state House seat, the Democrat won by 43 points, far beyond the party's estimated 23-point edge in the district.

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democrats-overperforming-2023-special-elections-clue-biden-trump/story?id=101850305

[katt_goddess]

I agree with the whole don't be too optimistic thing. Dems should not take any race for granted even if it seems like a runaway. There are too many morons out there that are going to take any garbage they hear as gospel and vote for absolute Hitler if that's what the voices from the talking box tell them. The only way to counteract that is to make sure that people are being completely informed about the candidates running in all the various elections and encourage voting. 

[tsar4]

Ladies & Gentlemen - your Republican front-runner:

[katt_goddess]

12 hours ago, tsar4 said:

Ladies & Gentlemen - your Republican front-runner:

Then go, Lumpy Dumpy.

If we want you back, we have an extradition treaty with France which I'm sure they'll be more than happy to comply with. They aren't all that happy with domestic terrorists either. 

[Seight]

13 hours ago, tsar4 said:

Ladies & Gentlemen - your Republican front-runner:

 

[Doom Metal Alchemist]

On 8/9/2023 at 4:37 AM, tsar4 said:

Ladies & Gentlemen - your Republican front-runner:

America: Love it or leave it.

[SwimOdin]

Today, I’m eating freedom fries

[Master-Debater131]

 

But remember, we arent allowed to talk about Biden Inc. or the influence scheme that they ran for years.

[Jman]

At this point I’m convinced the GOP knows that Trump is the easiest thing for the Democrats to rally around.  For all the “orange man bad” jokes the right likes to make, pointing out the guy who says the quiet part loud makes fundraising and rallying way easier.  If they can eliminate him and force their constituents to rally behind something less insane on the surface level, they have a much better shot in 2024.

[Master-Debater131]

2024 is shaping up to be a very simple election. If Trump is on the ballot then any Democrat wins. If Biden is on the ballot, and Trump isn't, then any Republican wins.

Trump is simply unelectable by any calculation, and his toxicity is so bad that if he is on the ballot the GOP will lose across the board.

Biden is historically unpopular and his policies do not have broad public support. He is losing roughly 20% in his primary to a guy who is a conspiracy nut.

Neither candidate is strong, its just a question of which candidate is the weakest come November 24. Trump is the weakest by a mile, but without him on the ballot Biden very likely loses. Theres a reason you are seeing multiple Democrats running shadow campaigns. They are banking on Biden not making it to 24.

[PenguinBoss]

3 minutes ago, Jman said:

At this point I’m convinced the GOP knows that Trump is the easiest thing for the Democrats to rally around.  For all the “orange man bad” jokes the right likes to make, pointing out the guy who says the quiet part loud makes fundraising and rallying way easier.  If they can eliminate him and force their constituents to rally behind something less insane on the surface level, they have a much better shot in 2024.

But currently, that's DeSantis, who is just Trump without the charisma.

RFK may as well register as a Republican and run.

[Icarus27k]

1 minute ago, Master-Debater131 said:

 

Biden is historically unpopular and his policies do not have broad public support. He is losing roughly 20% in his primary to a guy who is a conspiracy nut.

 

 

 

This is not a sign of weakness on Biden's part. It's a curious factoid, but RFK Jr. is not going to receive 20% of Democratic primary votes or delegates. Even if he did, it wouldn't mean anything.

[Raptorpat]

15 minutes ago, PenguinBoss said:

But currently, that's DeSantis, who is just Trump without the charisma.

MEANWHILE, IN IOWA

[naraku360]

On 7/20/2023 at 10:55 AM, Master-Debater131 said:

Functionally there isn't really a difference between the two anymore, its all just show.

Well, aside from the GOP wanting to genocide anyone not straight or white enough and putting pro-slavery PragerU videos in elementary schools.

Pretty sure those are mostly GOP things.

Edited August 11, 2023 by naraku360

[katt_goddess]

4 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

 

But remember, we arent allowed to talk about Biden Inc. or the influence scheme that they ran for years.

I'd be more willing to believe such crap if it wasn't for the fact that the same people who are very very into going after Hunter Biden - a civilian who happens to be the son of the current President - won't say or do a single thing about the 3 kids + their spouses/f*cktoys who actively made money while holding positions IN the WH under Drumpf. 

Hell, you really want to go after a drug addict with a gun fetish, raid Jazzhand Jr's place. Better do it quickly before he runs off to 'inspect' that new golf course the Saudis just so happen to be building for Drumpf.  

[scoobdog]

3 hours ago, katt_goddess said:

I'd be more willing to believe such crap if it wasn't for the fact that the same people who are very very into going after Hunter Biden - a civilian who happens to be the son of the current President - won't say or do a single thing about the 3 kids + their spouses/f*cktoys who actively made money while holding positions IN the WH under Drumpf. 

Hell, you really want to go after a drug addict with a gun fetish, raid Jazzhand Jr's place. Better do it quickly before he runs off to 'inspect' that new golf course the Saudis just so happen to be building for Drumpf.  

Garland is buying time.

[tsar4]

[Icarus27k]

21 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

 

Trump is simply unelectable by any calculation, and his toxicity is so bad that if he is on the ballot the GOP will lose across the board.

 

 

 

We agree on this. If Trump is the GOP nominee, it'll be a "Biden wins be default" situation. Which is new. I haven't seen a noncontested presidential election in my lifetime. 

Edited August 12, 2023 by Icarus27k