Master-Debater131 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, scoobdog said: She is that weak only because she hasn't really shown she can act on her own. Frankly, going independent is fine in the short term if she wants to avoid a bruising primary later on, but it's only a first step and it comes with a difficult task attached. She has four years to show that she's more than an obstructionist - that she can come up with important legislation on her own, work with Kelley to get Arizona priorities on to the Senate floor, and do more than just act like an entitled date when it comes time to get important legislation from either side through. The problem is she's trying to fashion herself as McCain Maverick without any of the leadership qualities that made McCain the legend he is. If her goal is to warn the Democrats to back off, all she's doing is feeding he worst narratives for both sides. Not really disagreeing with you. She has a lot of work to do if she wants a win. She doesnt have to do a whole lot though to play spoiler to a Democratic chance in 2024. She can do just enough to pull 5% or more away from Democrats in 2024 and hand the seat to the GOP*. *pending the GOP not being complete idiots. Which is a very tall task these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Master-Debater131 said: Not really disagreeing with you. She has a lot of work to do if she wants a win. She doesnt have to do a whole lot though to play spoiler to a Democratic chance in 2024. She can do just enough to pull 5% or more away from Democrats in 2024 and hand the seat to the GOP*. *pending the GOP not being complete idiots. Which is a very tall task these days. My point isn't to say your warning isn't valid. It's just that it's not worth bringing up at this point because the Democratic senate bosses will still give her the opportunity to show leadership if (and that's a big if) she shows she's willing to be far more involved than she has been up to this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Possible revenge upcoming in a referendum to repeal RCV in Alaska: https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1618437311188078593 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Also - the megaprimary in CA is brewing: https://twitter.com/AdamSchiff/status/1618626586303160325 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Double also - MTG is gunning for Trump VP which I say: by all means please https://twitter.com/Petereporter/status/1618261628407156737 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doom Metal Alchemist Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Raptorpat said: Double also - MTG is gunning for Trump VP which I say: by all means please https://twitter.com/Petereporter/status/1618261628407156737 We all thought Trump would never get elected. We were wrong. MTG being Trump's VP only solidify's the victory for Trump, the GOP, the alt-right, and the loss of America. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Why would she solidify a victory, given the results of 2018, 2020, and 2022? 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seight Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 8 hours ago, Raptorpat said: Double also - MTG is gunning for Trump VP which I say: by all means please https://twitter.com/Petereporter/status/1618261628407156737 So like a McCain/Palin ticket for people whose entire personality is "Bruh, I'm serious, you should really try meth." 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 That makes it easier for DeSantis to dress himself up as “the normal one”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 hours ago, Jman said: That makes it easier for DeSantis to dress himself up as “the normal one”. counter: trump is being replatformed and can siphon all the GOP oxygen again 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewBluntsworth Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 hours ago, Jman said: That makes it easier for DeSantis to dress himself up as “the normal one”. Aka the Jeb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 PA Republicans are supposedly coalescing around Dave McCormick (who narrowly lost to Dr. Oz in the primary this past election) to challenge Sen. Bob Casey. This is a natural target seat, and he is a better candidate than Oz, but Casey also has a proven history of winning (in 2012, when the Dems last had an incumbent president running for reelection, Casey overperformed Obama by like two points). The article also mentions that McCormick hasn't formally agreed to run. https://thehill.com/homenews/3830466-republicans-tap-mccormick-to-oust-sen-casey-in-2024-pennsylvania-race/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mix Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 10:23 PM, Raptorpat said: Double also - MTG is gunning for Trump VP which I say: by all means please https://twitter.com/Petereporter/status/1618261628407156737 Wow...who would of thought the time-line where Palin became President would have the last laugh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 idk if it's real, but if it is then Nikki Haley is in the game https://twitter.com/MaryCaitlinByrd/status/1620617373458829313 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seight Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 So the Republicans are sending out Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the response for Biden's State of the Union and I just... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 3 hours ago, Seight said: So the Republicans are sending out Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the response for Biden's State of the Union and I just... Odds she shaves both her pits. 10:1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 It's late so I'm not going spelunking, but evidently Trump was amplifying on his faketwitter rumors that DeSantis is a groomer/pedophile. This shitshow is already commencing guys. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seight Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6 hours ago, Raptorpat said: It's late so I'm not going spelunking, but evidently Trump was amplifying on his faketwitter rumors that DeSantis is a groomer/pedophile. This shitshow is already commencing guys. Heel vs. Heel fight LET'S GO! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PenguinBoss Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Small government 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seight Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 7 hours ago, PenguinBoss said: Small government I'm proud of him for not going full pull and saying "but only at public schools." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 This gonna matter to the election deniers? Probably not 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Thats a big deal for Democrats. Montana is a red state where Tester has proven himself a very competent candidate. If he didnt run it would all but guarantee the seat flips to the GOP. Now however, its a pure tossup. The GOP should win this seat, but they have proven utterly incompetent when it comes to fielding quality candidates. If, and thats an absolutely massive if, the GOP nominate even a halfway decent candidate they should flip this seat in 24. If they go with a pure MAGA idiot though then Tester should hold this seat for another 6 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The more that jump in the GOP primary, the more likely it is that the 2016 primary repeats itself. https://twitter.com/vivekgramaswamy/status/1628200586297454598 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seight Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 hours ago, Raptorpat said: The more that jump in the GOP primary, the more likely it is that the 2016 primary repeats itself. https://twitter.com/vivekgramaswamy/status/1628200586297454598 I almost feel like there's a non-zero chance that this is the point. How many people who voted for Trump can even spell this name, honestly? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 https://twitter.com/ElissaSlotkin/status/1630191500188348420 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Hogan out https://twitter.com/GovLarryHogan/status/1632378210016022528 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seight Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 11 hours ago, Raptorpat said: Hogan out https://twitter.com/GovLarryHogan/status/1632378210016022528 Me, seeing a Republican actually make a really good point about not running against Donald Trump: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 First step is a doozy…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stilgar Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I wish he would have fallen down a flight of stairs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, stilgar said: I wish he would have fallen down a flight of stairs. I wish he fell down a flight of stairs on top of Ted Cruz’s head. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted April 2, 2023 Share Posted April 2, 2023 Asa Hutchinson in the game https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-news-exclusive-former-arkansas-gov-asa-hutchinson/story?id=98238115 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted April 2, 2023 Share Posted April 2, 2023 Oh no, there's a 2024 one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted April 2, 2023 Share Posted April 2, 2023 38 minutes ago, Icarus27k said: Oh no, there's a 2024 one? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seight Posted April 2, 2023 Share Posted April 2, 2023 3 hours ago, Raptorpat said: Asa Hutchinson in the game https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-news-exclusive-former-arkansas-gov-asa-hutchinson/story?id=98238115 This man's going to get JEB!-d so hard and he doesn't even know it yet. I can almost guarantee most of the actual Arkansas Republicans in office would endorse Trump over Asa. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Seight said: This man's going to get JEB!-d so hard and he doesn't even know it yet. I can almost guarantee most of the actual Arkansas Republicans in office would endorse Trump over Asa. I literally forgot he even existed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 (edited) Will Trump be the GOP nominee? I'm not so sure. Criminal trials in a few different jurisdictions (New York, Georgia, the federal government) might be what it takes to break Trump Fever. If it doesn't, the Republicans are going to lose all up and down the ballot in the 2024 general election. Edited April 3, 2023 by Icarus27k 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 If the GOP continues to be the "let's just troll everyone" party, that's not sustainable. We'll be talking about the former Republican Party in a decade if so. If they have any hope of salvaging themselves, they should shape up and become serious again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 4 hours ago, Icarus27k said: Will Trump be the GOP nominee? I'm not so sure. Criminal trials in a few different jurisdictions (New York, Georgia, the federal government) might be what it takes to break Trump Fever. If it doesn't, the Republicans are going to lose all up and down the ballot in the 2024 general election. His fans don’t care that he’s being charged, because they don’t think the awful things he’s done to people should be criminal. He didn’t need to tell them the election was stolen, they wanted to believe it before he said a word. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stilgar Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, scoobdog said: His fans don’t care that he’s being charged, because they don’t think the awful things he’s done to people should be criminal. He didn’t need to tell them the election was stolen, they wanted to believe it before he said a word. Only because he has been saying any election he loses was stolen since 2015. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, stilgar said: Only because he has been saying any election he loses was stolen since 2015. He is the ultimate infallible great white hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 Mentioned it in the Stormy thread, but more relevant in the election thread: https://twitter.com/juliealdermanb/status/1642851080995217408?s=20 The Dems dropped a public oppo dump on Desantis (who hasn't officially joined the race) so Trump etc. can use it against him in the primary. If the anti-Trump primary vote doesn't consolidate, then Trump probably rolls through like the 2016 primary with a better head start. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 17 minutes ago, Raptorpat said: Given Trump winning the primary is the presumed political goal, Dems also dropped their oppo dump on Desantis so the Trump team can use it in the primary. That feels like such a bad idea. They did this in the midterms as well and it backfired in a lot of House races. Dems also wanted Trump in 2016 and we all know how that turned out. America has the attention span of a goldfish. Propping up Trump seems like it has just massive backfire potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus27k Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 Trump has cost the Republicans three elections in a row (2022, 2020 and 2018). That was before he went on criminal trial. Americans have made clear how much they hate Trump over years. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said: That feels like such a bad idea. They did this in the midterms as well and it backfired in a lot of House races. Dems also wanted Trump in 2016 and we all know how that turned out. America has the attention span of a goldfish. Propping up Trump seems like it has just massive backfire potential. They didn't do it for the House races, though some House races might have been collateral damage. The strategy itself is still a risky one and it only works on Trump because he has an extensive history of mishandling and abusing information he gets to disastrous effect for himself. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 23 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said: Propping up Trump seems like it has just massive backfire potential. (I moved your post to the election thread) I think the strategic assessment, which I basically agree with, is that after everything, Trump and Trump-endorsed maga devout just aren't super electable in at least neutrally competitive environments. So to the extent that they remain the largest plurality in GOP primaries, keeping them afloat through to the general election is the best way to keep independents in those races from voting R. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, Raptorpat said: (I moved your post to the election thread) I think the strategic assessment, which I basically agree with, is that after everything, Trump and Trump-endorsed maga devout just aren't super electable in at least neutrally competitive environments. So to the extent that they remain the largest plurality in GOP primaries, keeping them afloat through to the general election is the best way to keep independents in those races from voting R. I agree to a point. PA and GA Senate are prime examples of how the MAGA type candidates blew what should have been easily winnable races because of how horrible the candidates were. The problem is that Dems have been pushing this strategy further and further into Red areas of the country. It works when you have a true tossup or even light-red-purple districts, but it was pushed into much more friendly GOP districts. That's a huge risk because a lot of the GOP base in those districts doesn't care who the candidate is, they just want the person with the R next to their name to win. The idea itself makes a lot of sense, elevate the most insane people possible to both hurt local chances as well as build a national image of a party thats lost its mind. But in practice it has huge potential to backfire. Even with everything that has happened theres a sizeable portion of this country that will never vote for a Democrat, no matter how insane the GOP candidate might be. Its the same the other way to, just less prevalent thanks to all of the oxygen being sucked up by the MAGA people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 Something else on that strategy is that Dems dont really need to do it. MTG, bobo the Clown, and that idiot in NY all got to the general on their own. Dems should just sit back and let the GOP implode on its own. Promoting people like those three is like playing with fire. It might work for a bit, but its also how we ended up with MTG on some pretty important committees in the House. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 27 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said: I agree to a point. PA and GA Senate are prime examples of how the MAGA type candidates blew what should have been easily winnable races because of how horrible the candidates were. The problem is that Dems have been pushing this strategy further and further into Red areas of the country. It works when you have a true tossup or even light-red-purple districts, but it was pushed into much more friendly GOP districts. That's a huge risk because a lot of the GOP base in those districts doesn't care who the candidate is, they just want the person with the R next to their name to win. The idea itself makes a lot of sense, elevate the most insane people possible to both hurt local chances as well as build a national image of a party thats lost its mind. But in practice it has huge potential to backfire. Even with everything that has happened theres a sizeable portion of this country that will never vote for a Democrat, no matter how insane the GOP candidate might be. Its the same the other way to, just less prevalent thanks to all of the oxygen being sucked up by the MAGA people. People have ever right to be suspicious of the tactic; even though it is being used on awful candidates (like DeSantis), it's nonetheless an ostentatious display of voter manipulation. However, the fact it works speaks more to the unique quality of Trump's die hard fanbase and the extremely ingrained biases they carry with them to the ballot box: it's not going to backfire precisely because of that one segment of voter that will vote Republican no matter what. To put it another way, hyperpartisanship exists not as an indictment on the opposing party as much as an indictment on moderate voters in both (or neither) of the parties but as a result of frustration in a certain type of voter that measure his or her loyalty on the number of ideological goals achieved. People like that can't be manipulated because they're already hamstrung by their own biases and insecurities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpgamer Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Preface, I know fuck all about politics, polling, etc etc. So, maybe this is a dumb question to ask, but. How much of any of this is taking into consideration new cohorts of voters? Sure, 2016 may have seen chunks of new/young voters going Trump because lul. But those, and the children that came up after them, have had 8 years to deal with this bs. Sure, some of them might be as gullible/impressionable as their parents or whatever. But, what are the chances these new voters, often cited as a huge factor, are fully aware Trump is disastrous, and will thwart any chance he might have at winning another election? I mean. If they actually get out and vote. Which doesn't seem so unlikely. Midterms, yeah that can be a struggle (even though significant turnout broke that "red wave" we were supposed to see last time..). Tell the upcoming generation that Trump is running for president again? Might not matter how die-hard his fandom is.. Also the whole covid disproportionately killing republicans. Not so sure Trump is any sort of inevitability at this point. I mean. Would feel more confident if Dems were putting up someone more.... more. Nobody wants Biden, sure, and yeah, maybe probably he could limp along to another term. But it'd be awful nice knowing there were more stand-outs ready to make a splash. But I guess "making a splash" also kinda goes against their desire to keep the establishment satisfied. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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