2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences

[SwimModSponges]

Actually, according to NYT...

www.nytimes.com/2022/12/08/upshot/georgia-voter-turnout-republicans

Quote

The New York Times
Turnout by Republicans Was Great. It’s Just That Many of Them Didn’t Vote for Republicans.
2 days ago

 

[SwimModSponges]

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/12/09/kent-stermon-death-investigation-desantis-board-governors/

Quote

Kent Stermon, a longtime friend of Gov. Ron DeSantis who served on the governor’s transition team and was a current member of the board that oversees the state’s public universities, was found dead Thursday evening, according to police.

The Atlantic Beach Police Department in Duval County said Stermon was found dead in his truck in the parking lot of a post office just outside of Jacksonville. The investigation is being worked as a suicide, police said, and they do not suspect foul play. He was 50 years old.

In a statement Friday, Jacksonville Sheriff T.K. Waters said that Stermon “was the subject of an active investigation by the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office, which began a few weeks prior to his death. This investigation remains ongoing at this time and will continue until its completion.”

[...]

Stermon was well-known in Florida political circles, in part because he was one of the few people in DeSantis’ orbit who had been by his side since the beginning of the governor’s political career.

 

 

In a 2018 interview with the Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald, Stermon said he and DeSantis became friends through mutual social circles in Jacksonville nearly 10 years prior, before DeSantis had run for Congress. He helped in DeSantis’ campaigns as a “labor of love,” he said.

 

“He trusts me to do it right,” Stermon said at the time, which was shortly after DeSantis had been elected as governor. “He has so many people coming after him right now. I don’t want anything from him.”

 

A Republican political donor, Stermon contributed to a slate of candidates but gave more to DeSantis than any other state candidate, with checks totaling about $60,000 for both campaigns for governor. He has also contributed thousands to federal races.

 

 

“The Governor and First Lady were shocked and saddened to hear of Kent’s passing, and their prayers (and our entire office’s prayers) are with his family during this difficult time,” DeSantis spokesperson Taryn Fenske said.

 

The governor’s office said it had “no knowledge” of the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office investigation into Stermon.

 

Stermon was the president of Total Military Management, a company that contracts with the federal government to relocate military members. A statement the company posted on Facebook called Stermon “a beloved husband and father, and a dedicated leader, mentor and friend.”

 

In 2019, DeSantis appointed Stermon to the Board of Governors, which oversees Florida’s public universities. On Friday, the Board of Governors said Stermon served the board “with distinction” and “has been a champion of higher education and student success in Florida and a long-time supporter of the University of North Florida in many ways throughout the years.”

 

 

According to his biography on the state university system’s website, Stermon also had served on several nonprofit boards, including the Boys and Girls Club and Dreams Come True, a Jacksonville organization that grants the wishes of children with life-threatening illnesses.

 

Betting it was a suicide by two shots to the back of his head, and that the investigation involved child trafficking. 

Edited December 10, 2022 by SwimModSponges

[1pooh4u]

33 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

If the GOP nominate another complete wacko then theres a real chance that a significant enough number of GOP voters flip to Sinema and she outright wins another term.

Her move isnt as crazy as it sounds. Theres a very real chance that it works for her in 2024 and she wins another term.

Here’s the thing though Sinema is so unlikeable she might not peel away as many votes as she thinks. seriously across all age groups races and political leanings she’s viewed unfavorably I’m not saying what she did isn’t good strategy I just think there’s a chance it could not work. Did she not campaign on being a young female bisexual Bernie Sanders, and then became a female bisexual Manchin?  I just think she already lost a ton of votes just cuz she turned into just another corporate politician  and if the poll I saw is accurate at all not that many Republicans would vote for her even if the GOP candidate is K Lake

 

[scoobdog]

1 hour ago, Master-Debater131 said:

If the GOP nominate another complete wacko then theres a real chance that a significant enough number of GOP voters flip to Sinema and she outright wins another term.

Her move isnt as crazy as it sounds. Theres a very real chance that it works for her in 2024 and she wins another term.

It’s the only move she could make because she’s that unpopular.

[Raptorpat]

1 hour ago, matrixman124 said:

Her only motivation seems to be corporate funding. This makes me think this is coming from corporate interests that don't want the Democrats to have a significant lead over the Republicans in Congress.

Nah it's pure electoral gamesmanship. No one's cutting her a check and saying "you must do this thing."

I've seen a lot of commentary from people who knew her in AZ pre-Senate and they consistently said she was always personal ambition over everything else. 

She cozied up to pharma and whomever supports her quest to protect the status quo because she thought she needed to carve an ultra-moderate path to be successful and after two years of digging through bedrock in the wrong direction for nothing, she's calculating that her most realistic path to personal success is to just dam the river.

[Raptorpat]

49 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

Did she not campaign on being a young female bisexual Bernie Sanders, and then became a female bisexual Manchin?

oh man this visualization is trippy

[katt_goddess]

5 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

If the GOP nominate another complete wacko then theres a real chance that a significant enough number of GOP voters flip to Sinema and she outright wins another term.

Her move isnt as crazy as it sounds. Theres a very real chance that it works for her in 2024 and she wins another term.

Someone should make a Wine Tours list of all the boutique experiences she HASN'T gone on yet and use that as a countdown to when she'll leave office since it seems like she's been more into boutique experiences than actual government work.

[naraku360]

8 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

If the GOP nominate another complete wacko then theres a real chance that a significant enough number of GOP voters flip to Sinema and she outright wins another term.

Her move isnt as crazy as it sounds. Theres a very real chance that it works for her in 2024 and she wins another term.

Republicans will see that she was a Democrat and a woman, so they definitely won't like her no matter how far in her past the D was.

They're far dumber than you give them credit. Just run some adds saying she was a Demonrat on Fox for a month and her GOP career dies almost as fast as women's right to vote under the GOP.

[1pooh4u]

7 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

oh man this visualization is trippy

Now imagine witnessing the transformation in 125 degree Arizona temperatures 😆

[Raptorpat]

 

[Master-Debater131]

Democrats have a huge challenge in 2024 to retain the Senate. They have a ton of seats to defend that are in Red states, and some in swing states as well.

I suspect you will see more retirements as the election approaches.

[Ginguy]

Democrats have no issues retaining the Senate as long as Mitch is still around in leadership.

 

[Raptorpat]

5 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Democrats have a huge challenge in 2024 to retain the Senate. They have a ton of seats to defend that are in Red states, and some in swing states as well.

I suspect you will see more retirements as the election approaches.

Michigan is a blue-tinted swing state, but the Dems also won a trifecta there for the first time in like 40 or 50 years. So we'll see how two years of that impacts feelings there.

Just skimming around, I've seen that Buttigieg has put out a statement that he's not interested and I've seen that Slotkin is actively considering it.

[Master-Debater131]

19 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

Michigan is a blue-tinted swing state, but the Dems also won a trifecta there for the first time in like 40 or 50 years. So we'll see how two years of that impacts feelings there.

Just skimming around, I've seen that Buttigieg has put out a statement that he's not interested and I've seen that Slotkin is actively considering it.

MI should be an easier hold for Dems than in many other states. Who knows what will happen in the next 2 years, but its probably a hold for Dems.

The real wildcard is going to be GOP nominees. We just saw a few months ago how Trump cost the GOP the Senate (Again) by pushing horrible nominees in 3 very winnable races. Will that happen again and save the Dems? Or will the GOP learn from this an abandon the Trumpist tendencies that are losing them races all over the country. Frankly, the best hope for Dems in 2024 is probably the GOPs tendency to do the dumbest possible thing.

[Raptorpat]

On 1/5/2023 at 1:08 PM, Ginguy said:

Democrats have no issues retaining the Senate as long as Mitch is still around in leadership.

I would point out that he was the realist sounding the alarm from the onset that MAGA was pushing shit tier candidates like Dr. Oz, Blake Masters, Herschel Walker, and whomever else who would blow winnable races, buuuuuut at the same time I would prefer the same outcome in 2024 so I'll refrain from making that point out loud

 

 

oops

[Seight]

8 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

I would point out that he was the realist sounding the alarm from the onset that MAGA was pushing shit tier candidates like Dr. Oz, Blake Masters, Herschel Walker, and whomever else who would blow winnable races, buuuuuut at the same time I would prefer the same outcome in 2024 so I'll refrain from making that point out loud

 

 

oops

He didn't have a problem with that when he thought they were going to win.

[Master-Debater131]

12 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

I would point out that he was the realist sounding the alarm from the onset that MAGA was pushing shit tier candidates like Dr. Oz, Blake Masters, Herschel Walker, and whomever else who would blow winnable races, buuuuuut at the same time I would prefer the same outcome in 2024 so I'll refrain from making that point out loud

 

 

oops

Its insane the amount of hate that the wackos are throwing at McConnell.  Hes the reason any of those failed candidates even had a chance to begin with. He is a fundraising machine and pumped millions into races trying to save horrible candidates.

The GOP would have the majority right now if they wouldnt have nominated such garbage candidates. There were easy wins on the table, but they couldnt take them. Rather than being smart they decided to double down on the MAGA stupidity that cost them 2020. McConnell warned them that this would happen, and now hes being attacked for being right.

[Ginguy]

15 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

I would point out that he was the realist sounding the alarm from the onset that MAGA was pushing shit tier candidates like Dr. Oz, Blake Masters, Herschel Walker, and whomever else who would blow winnable races, buuuuuut at the same time I would prefer the same outcome in 2024 so I'll refrain from making that point out loud

 

 

oops

I would point out that Old Crow Mitch spent more money on saving Murkowski in Alaska from a Republican than he did on the candidates that he was publicly trashing, all of whom have races that were within grasp.

 

[scoobdog]

15 minutes ago, Ginguy said:

I would point out that Old Crow Mitch spent more money on saving Murkowski in Alaska from a Republican than he did on the candidates that he was publicly trashing, all of whom have races that were within grasp.

 

I think he made the right choice.

[katt_goddess]

3 hours ago, Ginguy said:

I would point out that Old Crow Mitch spent more money on saving Murkowski in Alaska from a Republican than he did on the candidates that he was publicly trashing, all of whom have races that were within grasp.

 

And exactly how much of the money that the Annoying Orange 'fundraised' went to actual candidates and not...oh...a Chinese bank account?  

[scoobdog]

42 minutes ago, katt_goddess said:

And exactly how much of the money that the Annoying Orange 'fundraised' went to actual candidates and not...oh...a Chinese bank account?  

Fixed that ... because you know it'll be Eric's liver the next time he misses a payment.

[katt_goddess]

6 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

Fixed that ... because you know it'll be Eric's liver the next time he misses a payment.

It's not like he's using it anyway.

If his liver was working, he would have shriveled up and pissed himself away for being such a toxic clown anyway. 

[Raptorpat]

4 hours ago, Ginguy said:

I would point out that Old Crow Mitch spent more money on saving Murkowski in Alaska from a Republican than he did on the candidates that he was publicly trashing, all of whom have races that were within grasp.

politics 101: a Leader's job is to protect their members first and foremost

[Seight]

Meanwhile in Hell The Texas We Have At-

Nope, fuck it, I stand by it, MEANWHILE IN HELL:

Executive Order to Prohibit Indoctrination and Critical Race Theory in Schools

Executive Order to Limit Government Overreach, Reduce Bureaucracy and Review Previous Executive Orders

Executive Order to Reduce Government Rules and Regulations

Edited January 11, 2023 by Seight

[naraku360]

On 1/10/2023 at 2:27 PM, scoobdog said:

Fixed that ... because you know it'll be Eric's liver the next time he misses a payment.

I was going to suggest the proper correction would be Chinese massage parlor but those usually employ adults who are not relatives of him, so probably not.

[Ginguy]

On 1/10/2023 at 6:08 PM, Raptorpat said:

politics 101: a Leader's job is to protect their members leadership position first and foremost

Fixed that for ya.

 

[Raptorpat]

by... protecting their members...

[Master-Debater131]

The hardliner position of "better a complete hardliner than no one" will never make sense. Your choices are take someone who votes with you 80% of the time, or someone who votes with you 0% of the time and you side with the 0%? In no sane world does that make sense.

I made the same argument to Dems complaining about Manchin. You can get a guy that votes with you 80% of the time, or a GOP Senator who votes with you 0% of the time. Which one would you choose?

 

[Raptorpat]

Schumer will do whatever he can to try to help conservative Manchin win reelection in conservative WV, including in a primary, just like McConnell did whatever he could to save idiosyncratic moderate Murkowski in idiosyncratic moderate Alaska.

[Master-Debater131]

11 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

Schumer will do whatever he can to try to help conservative Manchin win reelection in conservative WV, including in a primary, just like McConnell did whatever he could to save idiosyncratic moderate Murkowski in idiosyncratic moderate Alaska.

Yup. And thats because hes being a good leader. He knows any +1 is good for him and his party. Not to mention all the power that comes with being Speaker/Majority Leader. That +1 gets you control of the Senate, and that control is extremely powerful.

[Ginguy]

*le sigh*

There were 3 States, Az, Ga, and Nv, which were in play and could have benefited from the money spent instead on saving Murkowski. That seat, the Ak seat, was always going to be GOP. The only difference was if it was Murkowski, who would vote for Old Crow, or Tsubaka, who probably wouldn't. The spending of the money on that Ak race instead of one or more of the competitive races is the issue. Old Crow wasn't protecting members or GOP seats, he was protecting his position as leader. He traded a potential, (a strong one at that) of a Majority for his leadership seat in a minority. That isn't looking out for your members, who lose chairs and majorities on important committees.

 

[Raptorpat]

Murkowski is an active, incumbent member of his conference (in a state that routinely votes for moderates over partisans - Peltola, the 2010 Murkowski write-in, governors, coalition conferences in the statehouse).

You don't sacrifice actual for potential. Especially when the potential is crazy dogshit-tier quality. The whole narrative of this past cycle was that Democrats stayed home but independents showed up and voted for moderates, and the crazies all severely underperformed.

Throwing Murkowski under the bus to gamble on Blake fucking Masters (or Herschel Walker) was never the rational gambler's choice. McConnell was the only stakeholder on either side whose predictions weren't embarrassed by the end results, and because he's always playing the long game (keeping in mind in the immediate term the Senate minority is the only minority conference with a veto), it frankly sets them up for a healthier, functionable majority in the better-than-not odds that they flip the chamber in 2024 because they don't have to take ownership of the extremism and crazy (and whatever Herschel Walker is).

Imagine if Roy Moore beat Doug Jones in the special - yes they wouldn't have lost the seat for the rest of the cycle but there'd have been an extra year and a half of Senate Republicans having to own an actual pedophile in the public conscious every single day. It's like that, without the baggage they can focus on the offense against Tester, Manchin, Brown etc.

[naraku360]

2 hours ago, Ginguy said:

*le sigh*

There were 3 States, Az, Ga, and Nv, which were in play and could have benefited from the money spent instead on saving Murkowski. That seat, the Ak seat, was always going to be GOP. The only difference was if it was Murkowski, who would vote for Old Crow, or Tsubaka, who probably wouldn't. The spending of the money on that Ak race instead of one or more of the competitive races is the issue. Old Crow wasn't protecting members or GOP seats, he was protecting his position as leader. He traded a potential, (a strong one at that) of a Majority for his leadership seat in a minority. That isn't looking out for your members, who lose chairs and majorities on important committees.

 

It could just be that your guys sucked donkey balls.

[naraku360]

2 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

Imagine if Roy Moore beat Doug Jones in the special - yes they wouldn't have lost the seat for the rest of the cycle but there'd have been an extra year and a half of Senate Republicans having to own an actual pedophile in the public conscious every single day. It's like that, without the baggage they can focus on the offense against Tester, Manchin, Brown etc.

When in doubt, @Ginguywill always have [gestures at the GOP].

[Seight]

2 hours ago, naraku360 said:

It could just be that your guys sucked donkey balls.

But he really really wanted those guys tho.

[katt_goddess]

Buttery males.

[scoobdog]

8 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

Murkowski is an active, incumbent member of his conference (in a state that routinely votes for moderates over partisans - Peltola, the 2010 Murkowski write-in, governors, coalition conferences in the statehouse).

You don't sacrifice actual for potential. Especially when the potential is crazy dogshit-tier quality. The whole narrative of this past cycle was that Democrats stayed home but independents showed up and voted for moderates, and the crazies all severely underperformed.

Throwing Murkowski under the bus to gamble on Blake fucking Masters (or Herschel Walker) was never the rational gambler's choice. McConnell was the only stakeholder on either side whose predictions weren't embarrassed by the end results, and because he's always playing the long game (keeping in mind in the immediate term the Senate minority is the only minority conference with a veto), it frankly sets them up for a healthier, functionable majority in the better-than-not odds that they flip the chamber in 2024 because they don't have to take ownership of the extremism and crazy (and whatever Herschel Walker is).

Imagine if Roy Moore beat Doug Jones in the special - yes they wouldn't have lost the seat for the rest of the cycle but there'd have been an extra year and a half of Senate Republicans having to own an actual pedophile in the public conscious every single day. It's like that, without the baggage they can focus on the offense against Tester, Manchin, Brown etc.

Let's also not forget that throwing money at Adam fucking Laxalt was also a losing proposition.  He might not know this, but Laxalt  is a perennial loser in Nevada in part because of his poor showing amongst Latino voters.  You don't "win"  by boosting a candidate that isn't going to carry a growing and important demographic.  I mean, a freshman poli-sci student could tell you that.

[Raptorpat]

Laxalt had probably the best chances out of the whole gang just based on candidate quality, but NV was a rare statewide ticket-splitter with the Republicans flipping the Governor's office and losing the Senate. I don't think that discrepancy can be accounted for by a lack of investment alone.

[scoobdog]

27 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

Laxalt had probably the best chances out of the whole gang just based on candidate quality, but NV was a rare statewide ticket-splitter with the Republicans flipping the Governor's office and losing the Senate. I don't think that discrepancy can be accounted for by a lack of investment alone.

"Best" in the sense that he was the one most likely to benefit from low turnout.  His quality is by no means better despite the fact he's been less vocal than Masters about the usual Trumpian conspiracies.

[Raptorpat]

Kari Lake: the perfect candidate for a three-way race

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1615090660348133377

 

[SwimOdin]

1 hour ago, Raptorpat said:

Kari Lake: the perfect candidate for a three-way race

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1615090660348133377

 

I am almost salivating, what a train wreck that will be

[Top Gun]

 

[NewBluntsworth]

53 minutes ago, SwimOdin said:

I am almost salivating, what a train wreck that will be

She could win. A 3-way race is how we got Trump as the Republican nominee in 2016

[scoobdog]

I wonder how many fake leftists will vote for Kari.... like they did for Trump.

[Seight]

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-fires-warning-shot-handle-ron-desantis-2023-1

• "So we'll handle that the way I handle things," Trump said. 

Oh no you guys, Donald Trump's going to promise to pay Ron DeSantis and then not do it!!!

[Raptorpat]

On 1/16/2023 at 6:35 PM, SwimOdin said:

I am almost salivating, what a train wreck that will be

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1615895437562478595

[Raptorpat]

Sinema avoided a primary by disaffiliating with the party, but if she runs she'll have a Democratic opponent in the general election.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/23/gallego-bid-sinema-senate-run-2024-00078976

[scoobdog]

5 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

Sinema avoided a primary by disaffiliating with the party, but if she runs she'll have a Democratic opponent in the general election.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/23/gallego-bid-sinema-senate-run-2024-00078976

Her problem is that she doesn't have much of anything to really pad her resume other than the fact she voted for most Democratic proposals and didn't for a few others.

[Master-Debater131]

14 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

Her problem is that she doesn't have much of anything to really pad her resume other than the fact she voted for most Democratic proposals and didn't for a few others.

She doesnt really need to do a whole lot in order to either win or to destroy the Dems chances at winning though.

If, and this is an absolutely gigantic IF, the GOP nominate someone who is fairly reasonable moderate then it sets up 2024 to be Center-Right, Center-Left, Hard-Left. Gallego seems like a pretty pure progressive, which may not play well in a purple state like AZ. If he runs a progressive campaign then all she would have to do here is pull off 5% of the Democratic vote and that hands the seat to the GOP. 2024 also should be a more favorable GOP year with the Presidential elections and an unpopular Biden running for reelection (Im still assuming he is).

Or, if the GOP go pure wacko then she can pick up the sizeable GOP non-wacko vote and 5-10% of the Democratic vote and win that way.

She really isnt as weak as people online are trying to make her sound. By going independent she basically warned the Dems to either back her, or hand the seat to the GOP.

[scoobdog]

2 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

She doesnt really need to do a whole lot in order to either win or to destroy the Dems chances at winning though.

If, and this is an absolutely gigantic IF, the GOP nominate someone who is fairly reasonable moderate then it sets up 2024 to be Center-Right, Center-Left, Hard-Left. Gallego seems like a pretty pure progressive, which may not play well in a purple state like AZ. If he runs a progressive campaign then all she would have to do here is pull off 5% of the Democratic vote and that hands the seat to the GOP. 2024 also should be a more favorable GOP year with the Presidential elections and an unpopular Biden running for reelection (Im still assuming he is).

Or, if the GOP go pure wacko then she can pick up the sizeable GOP non-wacko vote and 5-10% of the Democratic vote and win that way.

She really isnt as weak as people online are trying to make her sound. By going independent she basically warned the Dems to either back her, or hand the seat to the GOP.

She is that weak only because she hasn't really shown she can act on her own.  Frankly, going independent is fine in the short term if she wants to avoid a bruising primary later on, but it's only a first step and it comes with a difficult task attached.  She has four years to show that she's more than an obstructionist - that she can come up with important legislation on her own, work with Kelley to get Arizona priorities on to the Senate floor, and do more than just act like an entitled date when it comes time to get important legislation from either side through.  The problem is she's trying to fashion herself as McCain Maverick without any of the leadership qualities that made McCain the legend he is.

If her goal is to warn the Democrats to back off, all she's doing is feeding he worst narratives for both sides.