Putin: "Stick to the timeline!"

[bnmjy]

Just now, Raptorpat said:

Which one, r/Russia?

Yes, it was closed for a few hours yesterday. Now the mods are severely limiting what is getting posted and deleting many comments.

[tsar4]

25 minutes ago, bnmjy said:

If any of you need something to pass the time, check out the Russia subreddit. They seem to be going through an existential crisis right now . . . lawl

That would be an improvement over what I saw when I was there last.

[Raptorpat]

I know when the invasion started they banned all "political" posts.

In other internet news, Anonymous breached and leaked the database of the Russian Ministry of Defense website. It's @youranontv on Twitter.

[tsar4]

1 hour ago, bnmjy said:

Tangential, why is it being spelled as Kyiv now? I know it's the more correct pronunciation, but I remember it being spelled as Kiev for the longest time, including the conquest of Crimea in 2014.

Edit: Oh, I see.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KyivNotKiev

Same for Lviv, which was Lvov when I was in College, no doubt.

[Master-Debater131]

 

 

Good.  Now to boot them out of SWIFT.

[scoobdog]

42 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

 

 

Good.  Now to boot them out of SWIFT.

I don't think the US has a whole lot of sway on that one, but I'm pretty sure we would love to if Europe was willing.

[tsar4]

1 hour ago, bnmjy said:

Yes, it was closed for a few hours yesterday. Now the mods are severely limiting what is getting posted and deleting many comments.

Just took a peek at a recent post.  76 comments...75 missing.

[mthor]

1 hour ago, bnmjy said:

Yes, it was closed for a few hours yesterday. Now the mods are severely limiting what is getting posted and deleting many comments.

Kiwi Farms has closed registration - apparently that's where a bunch of them went.

[Sawdamizer]

Russia psyops at its finest…. Mildly horrifying nonetheless …

Russian TOPOL-M systems being moved in Russia

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by Sawdamizer

[Master-Debater131]

1 hour ago, scoobdog said:

I don't think the US has a whole lot of sway on that one, but I'm pretty sure we would love to if Europe was willing.

I dont know a ton about how it works but from what I have read is it takes a majority vote, but they almost always require universal approval out of respect for other members. 

 

Last I heard its down to only Cyprus holding it up. Italy and Hungary are onboard now.  I really wouldnt be shocked if they get ejected from SWIFT this weekend.

[scoobdog]

1 minute ago, Master-Debater131 said:

I dont know a ton about how it works but from what I have read is it takes a majority vote, but they almost always require universal approval out of respect for other members. 

 

Last I heard its down to only Cyprus holding it up. Italy and Hungary are onboard now.  I really wouldnt be shocked if they get ejected from SWIFT this weekend.

The consequences could be damaging to any of the European buyers that depend on Russian product, but it will most likely be devastating to Russia.  From what I've heard, their internal replacement for SWIFT is still developing.

[Master-Debater131]

 

 

Thats a pretty big hit if true.

[PerfectFlowingHair]

Russia's gonna get Ukraine. Calling it. This sanction and condemnation dance is going to do exactly fuck all, and this talk of kicking Russia out of SWIFT is just that. Talk. Kabuki theater. Bluster. Political posturing. My eye's twitching just following it all - TAKE AN ACTUAL DECISIVE FUCKING MEASURE OR SHUT UP YOU POLITICIANS!

[tsar4]

A call to arms from Anonymous

[PerfectFlowingHair]

1 minute ago, tsar4 said:

A call to arms from Anonymous

Oh. Wow. Alright. Amendment to my above post. The world governments are going to do fuck-all of any importance, but with Anonymous going full blast? These are the same random civilians who straight up called multiple successful airstrikes on Syrian training camps. Maybe Ukraine's got a chance after all.

[Raptorpat]

Putin calculated in the costs of all the economic sanctions and being exiled from the international economy and community (basically talking everything the world can do short of physical conflict, which it can't do), and it was still worth it to him because he believes the current international order is just meant to prop up the west at his and everyone else's expense so it's worth breaking.

What he didn't calculate was China getting cold feet, and this is the primary leverage point that will determine the outcome.

 

[helpme]

Well I decided to look up the death rate for this war and naturally daily mail came up but if what it says is true thats a huge hit

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10550799/Ukraine-hits-airfield-Russia-missile-strike-blow-Putin-downing-six-helicopters.html

Ukraine says it has inflicted one of Russia's heaviest ever day of losses with more than 1,000 casualties: Putin's losses now stand at 2,800 troops, 80 tanks and 516 armoured vehicles as fightback continues 

[tsar4]

Matt Groening chimed in -

[tsar4]

Chicago City Hall

[Poof]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-business-europe-8acc2106b95554429e93dfee5e253743

Interesting article on the intelligence pre-invasion

[Raptorpat]

Quote

A Ukrainian government official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence said Kyiv was convinced about two weeks ago that Russia would invade. But the government publicly tamped down concerns about an invasion to limit damage to Ukraine’s economy and panic in the country, the official said. Any mass mobilization of Ukrainian forces could have given additional pretext to Putin, who repeatedly and falsely claimed Ukraine was planning to attack separatist-held parts of the Donbas.

There it is - damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[tsar4]

Reports are that Ukraine downed a second II-76.  Apparently these are used to carry 100+ paratroops.

[Poof]

30 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

There it is - damned if you do, damned if you don't.

It's probably the right move tho. The world not believing Putin's narrative is important.

[Raptorpat]

I think that's why Zelenskyy is going out of his way to be in a position to get caught once the horde breaks through. They'll execute him, he'll have done nothing but defend his country and be martyred for it, and the Ukrainians will rally around each other rather than the puppet government that springs up.

[scoobdog]

4 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

I think that's why Zelenskyy is going out of his way to be in a position to get caught once the horde breaks through. They'll execute him, he'll have done nothing but defend his country and be martyred for it, and the Ukrainians will rally around each other rather than the puppet government that springs up.

I would hope Putin isn't stupid enough to create a high value martyr.    The slow motion nature of the invasion means he was already feeling the effects of the invasion before he even started.

[Poof]

9 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

I think that's why Zelenskyy is going out of his way to be in a position to get caught once the horde breaks through. They'll execute him, he'll have done nothing but defend his country and be martyred for it, and the Ukrainians will rally around each other rather than the puppet government that springs up.

We'll see. I'm actually hoping for this optimistic scenario where Putin isn't really serious about this invasion, is only going to fight enough to make it look real, and then use the act of withdrawing as a big bargaining chip. He keeps bringing up being open to talk / going back and forth on it? I'm not sure info is accurate on that tho

Zelenskyy is brave and I think you're right about him willing to be that martyr, but idk if he's given up yet. He's receiving support from tons of countries. Ukraine's army might be stronger than people realize, including Putin. The Ukrainians seem super motivated to fight, and they have been fighting since 2014. This isn't a country that was just going about its business and suddenly got invaded. In fact, Putin stretching this out over so many years might be what really toughened up ukraine the most.

[Raptorpat]

3 minutes ago, Poof said:

He keeps bringing up being open to talk / going back and forth on it? I'm not sure info is accurate on that tho

He only started once China got cold feet. They had a call and then a couple hours later Putin suggested he would do talks, but in Belarus and with nearly every condition being a poison pill.

[Jman]

Zelenskyy must be wondering how he got here.  He was a comedian who acted in a parody of the government before being legitimately elected.  That’s like if John Oliver was suddenly leading Britain while London was being bombed!

He’s got way bigger cojones than any political comedian here.  I love the guy, but no way in fucking hell does Seth Meyers martyr himself for his country.

[Seight]

9 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

He only started once China got cold feet. They had a call and then a couple hours later Putin suggested he would do talks, but in Belarus and with nearly every condition being a poison pill.

I'm imagining almost every version of those talks being, at best, "You can keep Ukraine, but not as much as what you started with before I attacked you, and only if you say yes."

[Raptorpat]

 

[Master-Debater131]

 

[Sawdamizer]

So, what happens if they end up killing Zelenskyy? Armchair foreign policy scholars only need respond.

[Poof]

54 minutes ago, Sawdamizer said:

So, what happens if they end up killing Zelenskyy? Armchair foreign policy scholars only need respond.

What do you mean what happens?

[Raptorpat]

 

[Raptorpat]

Seeing a lot about the rough condition the Russian military is in, both in terms of equipment and personnel.

World's largest nuclear stockpile aside, not a great look if you base all of your leverage around wanting anyone beyond 20 miles of your border to fear your capabilities.

 

[Jman]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/26/armed-with-hammers-and-pistols-ukrainians-wait-at-barricades-for-the-russians?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I’m no political expert concerning Ukraine.  I do know however that all the Ukrainians I’ve ever worked out with are a pretty tough lot.  They are planning to make this a long slog for the Russian military.

[Raptorpat]

There's an agreement to remove certain Russian banks from SWIFT.

Not a finance wizard so someone smarter than me can explain the actual scope of the agreement because all I can do is take it at face value and it doesn't sound as comprehensive as was talked about before.

Edit: I guess this kind of explains it.

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Raptorpat

[tsar4]

One of the Ukrainian rallying cries - 

[tsar4]

Unconfirmed reports have Russian soldiers captured wearing Ukrainian military uniforms, driving Ukrainian military vehicles into Kyiv.

Chechen General killed in Ukraine, possibly by Ukrainian Elite Forces.

BBC reporting that the children of Russian Oligarchs are coming out against the war. 

[naraku360]

43 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

There's an agreement to remove certain Russian banks from SWIFT.

Not a finance wizard so someone smarter than me can explain the actual scope of the agreement because all I can do is take it at face value and it doesn't sound as comprehensive as was talked about before.

Edit: I guess this kind of explains it.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/swift-sanctions-russia-banking-ukraine-1.6365146

I think I understand from this article, but my banking experience isn't quite enough to explain it though I'll try. 

Sounds like it's mostly a method of bank to bank communication for speeding up external transactions. Basically losing access would slow the flow of money significantly, albeit not cutting it off since SWIFT in itself doesn't move money. It's more notifications that are set to trigger approvals and declines quickly.

I am speaking from the lower ranks of banking, though, so the only thing I can say with confidence is "that sounds bad for Russia."

Edited February 26, 2022 by naraku360

[Ginguy]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/what-swift-banking-system-russia-ukraine-b2024006.html

Solid article on SWIFT sanctions. Seems like it would be a hindrance to Russia, but not a total freeze of their international financial access.

A good measure however, in that it continues to add pressure on Moscow to stop the invasion. Ultimately though the best course of action is to give the Ukrainians all the Javelin/AT-4 and Stinger missiles they can use, as well as arming the Baltic republics and Taiwan with similar weapons in vast quantities. Positioning intermediate range weapons in Poland, Finland (if they join NATO) and particularly Taiwan would be good steps as well. Taiwan could use some good anti-ship missiles as well. The general idea being to give these countries, (yes that includes the sovereign nation of Taiwan) the ability to defend themselves. 

  I don't think Putin expected this level of resistance from the Ukrainians or the world at large. He is going to pay a price for it, as well he should, but unless he is tossed out of Ukraine entirely, including the East and Crimea, he will still be able to claim victory of sorts.

 

 

[tsar4]

I just hope that, if Putin goes full "Hitler in the Fuhrerbunker", someone there has the backbone to keep him away from the big, red button.

[tsar4]

Elon Musk tweeted that he has opened "Starlink Service" to Ukraine and is sending more terminals.

[Raptorpat]

I saw scrolling the reddit live feed (can't find it now) that the alleged leak is that the order from on high is in to take Kyiv by Monday no matter the cost, explicitly overruling the concern from the paradrop division because they're going to take all the losses.

If true, the next 24 hours could be even more rough both for the city and the hundreds of untrained and unequipped 19 year olds that are going to get torn to shreds after being thrown out of airplanes.

[Ginguy]

This might come down to morale. If a bunch of 19-28 yr olds are getting tossed out of a plane, they might pull an Iraqi Army and just say "F it". Trying to take a city by air drop is extremely difficult with highly trained troops, if Putin is just tossing out fodder it is going to end up being very bloody for everyone. Really, the harder Russia gets its ish pushed in the better for everyone; it would deter/cripple Russia and serve as a very clear warning to Beijing.

 

 

[Top Gun]

I have to believe that a lot of the higher-up Russian military commanders think this whole thing is a fucking terrible idea. Who among them has the balls to stand up and say "We're not doing this shit"?

[Poof]

2 hours ago, Ginguy said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/what-swift-banking-system-russia-ukraine-b2024006.html

Solid article on SWIFT sanctions. Seems like it would be a hindrance to Russia, but not a total freeze of their international financial access.

A good measure however, in that it continues to add pressure on Moscow to stop the invasion. Ultimately though the best course of action is to give the Ukrainians all the Javelin/AT-4 and Stinger missiles they can use, as well as arming the Baltic republics and Taiwan with similar weapons in vast quantities. Positioning intermediate range weapons in Poland, Finland (if they join NATO) and particularly Taiwan would be good steps as well. Taiwan could use some good anti-ship missiles as well. The general idea being to give these countries, (yes that includes the sovereign nation of Taiwan) the ability to defend themselves. 

  I don't think Putin expected this level of resistance from the Ukrainians or the world at large. He is going to pay a price for it, as well he should, but unless he is tossed out of Ukraine entirely, including the East and Crimea, he will still be able to claim victory of sorts.

 

 

Today Germany sent 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 stingers. The netherlands, Czech Republic, and portugal also declared deliveries today. The netherlands' included 200 stingers. Ukraine has and is getting anti air and anti tank delivered.

Russia also accused the USA of using our CIA drones and other surveillance to scout for the ukrainians. 

[tsar4]

Hmmmm....

[Poof]

8 hours ago, Sawdamizer said:

So, what happens if they end up killing Zelenskyy? Armchair foreign policy scholars only need respond.

Since you never elaborated, if he dies as a result of Russia taking Kyiv then it would be the beginning of regime change. There would be a ukrainian government in exile/underground somewhere that still claims legitimacy but without control. And Russia would begin installing its own leadership.

If he just gets hit by a bomb or assassinated but Russia doesn't take Kyiv, then whoever is vice president gets to step up. Either way since he's being so badass his death will probably just inspire ukrainians to fight harder.

[Poof]

13 minutes ago, tsar4 said:

Hmmmm....

translated from https://47news.ru/articles/208119/

Quote

 

The circumstances of the death of the Deputy General Director of the Unified Settlement Center of Gazprom for Corporate Security, whose body was found in the prestigious village of Leninskoye in the Vyborg District of the Leningrad Region, are being established. A note was found nearby, law enforcement officials told 47news. A month earlier, the body of a top manager of another division from Gazprom's orbit was found in the same village. Both of the now deceased previously worked at Gazprom Transgaz.

As it became known to 47news, in the early morning of February 25, the police received a message about the death of a man on Rubinovaya Street in an elite cottage village in Leninsky.

The officers who arrived at the scene found the deceased in a noose in the annex garage, a note lay nearby. The deceased was identified as 61-year-old Alexander Tyulakov, Deputy General Director of the Unified Settlement Center (UCC) of Gazprom for corporate security. This division performs the functions of the treasury of the entire monopoly.

Prior to his appointment to the ERC, Alexander Tyuliakov, since March 2014, worked as Deputy General Director for Corporate Security and Human Resources at Gazprom Transgaz St. Petersburg, a 100% subsidiary of Gazprom, which was engaged in the export and transportation of fuel to nine regions of Russia.

The circumstances of the incident are established by the Investigative Committee of the Leningrad Region.

Gazprom ERC at the time of publication could not comment on the incident.

Recall that a month earlier, Leonid Shulman, 60-year-old head of the transport service of Gazprom Invest, was found dead in a mansion on Zhemchuzhnaya Street in the same village of Leninskoye. A retractable construction knife was found on the side of the bathtub. A note was also found. Shulman also previously worked for Gazprom Transgaz.

47news said that many of the top managers of the gas monopoly live in the village of Leninskoye. Because of the accumulation of well-known names, it is called "Gazprom's nest".

District: Vyborgsky District
To be the first to know about the main events in the Leningrad region - subscribe to the 47news channel in Telegram