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UnevenEdge

2022 Midterms: Oh god, not again


Master-Debater131

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28 minutes ago, SwimModSponges said:

The U.S. budget deficit was sliced in half for fiscal 2022, the biggest drop in history following two years of huge Covid-related spending.

Wow, so what you're saying is that the govt stopped spending a ton of extra money once the pandemic ended. Smfh. 

Not even worth pointing out how hollow this is. 

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1 hour ago, SwimModSponges said:

Huh, because what im hearing is, Biden cut the deficit in half, the largest decrease ever.

Weird.

The deficit is forecasted to be reduced from 2.8 trillion to 1.4 trillion between 2021 and this year. They played it on MSNBC earlier. What you gravitated toward I’m guessing was “deficit cut in half under Biden.”

Clever liberal wordplay to confuse our tender virgin ears

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/10/21/remarks-by-president-biden-on-historic-deficit-reduction/

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1 hour ago, SwimModSponges said:

Oh god, you cannot make me ready to listen to her become the Digivolved version of Sarah Palin.

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Since switching from Registered Voters to Likely Voters the RCP average has shown a huge swing to the GOP on the generic ballot. The GOP hold a 3 point advantage on the generic ballot and RCP is predicting a pickup of between 12 and 47 seats, with an average of 29.

The same movement has been seen in Senate races. The GOP now hold the lead in Nevada, and have rapidly closed the gap in Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.

Even some governors races have shifted to the GOP. Evers in Wisconsin looks to be in real trouble.

Sure looks like things have swung back to GOP Wave territory.

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31 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Since switching from Registered Voters to Likely Voters the RCP average has shown a huge swing to the GOP on the generic ballot. The GOP hold a 3 point advantage on the generic ballot and RCP is predicting a pickup of between 12 and 47 seats, with an average of 29.

The same movement has been seen in Senate races. The GOP now hold the lead in Nevada, and have rapidly closed the gap in Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.

Even some governors races have shifted to the GOP. Evers in Wisconsin looks to be in real trouble.

Sure looks like things have swung back to GOP Wave territory.

Not even close.  But momentum has shifted.

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On 10/25/2022 at 6:46 PM, 1pooh4u said:

The fact that Thomas is allowing the argument that pressuring Raffensperger to disallow ballots because of signature matches is legislative business tells you all you need to know about Thomas. Disgusting 

The fact that Thomas is allowed to weigh in when his wife is in trouble for the same shit that Lindsey Graham is in trouble for is bullshit.

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Firmly in Red Wave territory now.

The RCP average has the GOP with a lead on the generic ballot with a win range of 12-49 seats, averaging 30.

538 shows the Senate as a pure tossup after having it in Democrat control just last week. They have the GOP with an 88% chance to take the House.

In Arizona, bat shit insane Kari Lake has an 11 point lead in the most recent poll for the Governors race. Hobbs may be the worst Democrat in this cycle, and shes showing it. This race is going to be over before it ever gets to election day. Kelly has a lead of only 1.5 points in the Senate race, and that race has been tightening for a while. Unless there is a historic level of vote splitting in Arizona is sure looks like the GOP are primed to pick up a Senate seat there.

Nevada looks to flip to the GOP where the GOP candidate Laxalt has a 1.2% lead in the average, and a 4 point lead in the most recent poll. Well within the MoE, but he has had the lead for almost a month now.

In Oregon of all places there is a real chance for a GOP win for Governor. This race is a little weird because its a 3 way race, but the GOP candidate Drazen has had a lead in every recent poll. Its within the MoE, but theres a real shot that the GOP win this one.

In Georgia, Walker now has the lead in the RCP average. Even though he has the lead, he doesnt look ready to clear that 50% hurdle to avoid a runoff.  Which is not the case in the Governors race where Kemp should win in an absolute laugher, and likely clear the 50% mark.

And in PA what a difference a day makes, or really what a debate makes. Oz now has his first lead ever in polling after the debate. There was clear movement toward him before the debate, but now he takes the first lead ever. Fetterman still has a lead in the overall average, but its down to 0.3%, so as good as a tossup.

Election night could be absolutely brutal for Democrats with the way things are going. Theres not really anything left at this point that could change momentum either. Opinions are pretty baked in on the key issues this election cycle, and they are not good for Democrats. Its been Inflation and the Economy since day 1, and thats not what Democrats have talked about. In my state the only Dem who has even touched these issues has been Gov. Polis, who I plan on voting for. Hes going to cruise to reelection because hes a good candidate and is talking about the issues that matter. In the Senate race and my local House race its Abortion, Abortion, January 6th, and Abortion. Those may be key issues for Democrats, but thats not whats going to turn the election this year. I expect Bennet to win, but I think my local House seat goes GOP. Its a fairly swingy district, and the Dem candidate is flat out ignoring economic issues to focus on Abortion.

For all the bat shit insane stuff the GOP pushes, they are talking about the issues that matter this year. And they are going to win because of it.

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So what, are you implying that it's a good thing that your average American voter is too mind-numbingly stupid to have any sort of convictions deeper than "muh gas prices"? That candidates can pretend they have any control whatsoever over massive global economic cycles and get away with it?

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3 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

In Oregon of all places there is a real chance for a GOP win for Governor. This race is a little weird because its a 3 way race, but the GOP candidate Drazen has had a lead in every recent poll. Its within the MoE, but theres a real shot that the GOP win this one.

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I've seen a fair bit of analysis that Dems are overperforming in red state districts (where abortion rights are at risk on the state level) and underperforming in blue state districts (where abortion rights are not at risk on the state level). So like Sharice Davids is overperforming in Kansas, but SPM in NY is underperforming.

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1 hour ago, Raptorpat said:

I've seen a fair bit of analysis that Dems are overperforming in red state districts (where abortion rights are at risk on the state level) and underperforming in blue state districts (where abortion rights are not at risk on the state level). So like Sharice Davids is overperforming in Kansas, but SPM in NY is underperforming.

One question that always pops up with this kind of analysis though is are they really over performing, or are these people who were going to vote anyways just doing it early? There has been a lot of reporting that early voting is up, but that by itself doesnt tell us much. We need to know if these are your consistent voters just doing it early, or irregular voters who could actually turn an election.

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Confirmed attempted political assassination of Nancy Pelosi.

https://apnews.com/article/paul-pelosi-assaulted-156ece77186eb11b97260af3c5122f67

Quote

Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin, at a campaign stop for a congressional candidate, said of the Pelosis: “There’s no room for violence anywhere, but we’re going to send her back to be with him"

 

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A political ad came on tv this morning and I have a tendency to tune them out, but I swear I heard the final line as an ominously voiced - "Civilization depends on it!".  Unfortunately, before I could look up to see who it was about, it was already into the next political ad.

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