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UnevenEdge

2022 Midterms: Oh god, not again


Master-Debater131

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I just voted. Because Andrew Cuomo shit on democracy by making it prohibitively difficult for (real) third parties to make it to the ballot, it was probably the simplest ballot I've ever filled out. Just Dem/GOP candidates for everything (on their main party line and on the Conservative/WFP lines).

One statewide ballot proposal  for a $4.2b environmental bond act and one local town proposal.

I was out and back before my laptop could idle into sleep mode. It's disgusting that super urban environments elsewhere develop multi-hour lines because they don't have enough resources and then the alternative voting opportunities get challenged in court.

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Well I voted. I wore a mask to protect others from my covid. I think the CDC should have put a mask advisory just for today, but of course that would have made too much sense. Fortunately, when I came to the booth there was no line and I was able to practice social distancing.

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7 minutes ago, Top Gun said:

I just threw mine in the mailbox a few weeks ago. Of course the state GQP raised a total bitch-fest about ballots where people didn't fill out the date...even though it'll get a damn postmark anyway.

My recollection is that the GOP won the case because the Chief Justice unexpectedly died a couple months ago so the top court deadlocked and the appellate decision remained controlling. Something like that.

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I did the mail-in weeks ago because I knew I'd be working and there was a potential for snow issues in November [ it's now supposedly going to be hitting the area late tomorrow with massive ice leading to snow on top ] . 

Dems left the House run in order to let the Independent candidate get all the votes possible [ Mund is Pro-Choice against Armstrong's 'pro-life' + list of fails for the actual people of ND ] . The Senate run consists of incumbent Hoeven who is an absolute jackass and hasn't worked a real job in his entire life, Christiansen on the Dem side, and Becker-the-Pecker running for the Sore Loser Party because he didn't get the Rep nom. 

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Voted all D on my ballot, didn't give a vote to any uncontested republicans because fuck all of them.  Had a lot of non-partisan court positions showing up but more of them were uncontested as well.  Big thing on the KY ballot was Amendment 2, banning abortion in all circumstances in the KY constitution.  Voted hard no to that shit.  Hope the rest of the voters in the state followed suit.  Also go Charles Booker, let's can Rand.

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9 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Florida alone looks like its going to provide the GOP the flips they need to win the House.

I mean, look at what Desantis did with redistricting. Even if it all gets thrown out after litigation for bastardizing everything we know about fair district laws, it's served its purpose for this cycle.

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So far there appears to be a remarkable amount of vote splitting happening.In OH, GA, and PA it appears that there is serious vote splitting happening. In OH and GA the GOP Governors are running decently ahead of the GOP Senate candidates. In PA the Democrat Governor is running ahead of the Democratic Senator candidate.

This is just crazy. You never see vote splitting like this, but its happening.

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Quote

It’s still too early (and close) for ABC News’s Decision Desk to call, but we have a possible upset alert! Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, the conservative firebrand representing Colorado’s 3rd District who once vowed to carry her glock in Congress and has embraced Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen, is currently trailing in her reelection bid. With 71 percent of expected vote reporting, Boebert has 48 percent while her challenger, Democrat and former Aspen City Council Member Adam Frisch, leads with 52 percent. Our forecast gave Boebert a 97-in-100 chance of winning, so if Frisch can maintain his lead, it will be a surprising ouster.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/348874/

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So far things are going basically how I predicted they would go. The biggest miss so far is in AZ. I figured that Lake was going to win, but thankfully it doesnt look like she will.  She is the definition of fucking insane, so her going down is good. That miss makes also my Senate predictions 50-50. So at this point we are looking at either a 50-50 Senate, or a 51-49 Democratic Senate. I dont see how the GOP get to 51 at this point. Whats so interesting is that so far in the Conservative sphere there is A LOT of blaming of Trump going around. People are realizing that the GOP had a golden opportunity this year, and Trump fucked it up. His candidates are going to cost the Senate, Again. I really think we see a shift away from Trump and toward DeSantis after this one. Pretty clear that the hardcore pro-trump crowd just isnt that big, and its not big enough to win elections.

The amount of vote splitting is really crazy this year. I cant remember another time seeing this kind of vote splitting. Its also becoming clear that the polling has been pretty accurate so far. The RCP averages are holding up well as of now, and thats a good thing. It means that the pollsters have figured things out again and we have a little better idea of how things are going.

I still say that the GOP win the house, but its not the biblical red wave that it looked like for a while there. Odds are the GOP probably wind up with 15-25 pickups at the end of the day. Thats enough to get them the majority, but likely disappointing for them.

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He helped win the Dems two likely GOP House seats that the Republicans tried to draw away from them.

The reverse coattails appear to be happening in NY, Lee Zeldin lost but it's possible his coattails decide control of Congress, because NY's courts were some of the only courts to do the right thing.

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Many races remain too close to call, specifically Walker/Warnock which is headed to a run off.  The big story is apparently Gen Z establishing themselves as a voting block to be reckoned with.  They voted in force and seemed to turn the red wave into a red trickle.

Cord cutting means no ability to watch Fox News apparently.

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