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Putin: "Stick to the timeline!"


tsar4

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So a few days ago, Ukraine launched a big missile strike that took out the Black Sea Fleet's HQ in Sevastopol. Ukraine announced that they took out 34 Russian officers in the strike, including Admiral Viktor Sokolov, the commander of the Black Sea Fleet.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-black-sea-fleet-commander-killed-no-comment-by-moscow-2023-09-25/

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Shocking if true, but this is still a "he said, she said" thing at the moment. I'll wait to see what U.S. officials say about who was killed during this Ukrainian attack. 

 

But still, "we can hold this meeting over Zoom" would have prevented this. 

Edited by Icarus27k
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18 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

Shocking if true, but this is still a "he said, she said" thing at the moment. I'll wait to see what U.S. officials say about who was killed during this Ukrainian attack. 

 

But still, "we can hold this meeting over Zoom" would have prevented this. 

But wait - there's more!

Quote

MOSCOW, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Admiral Viktor Sokolov, the commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, was shown on Russian state television on Tuesday attending a defence leaders' meeting remotely, a day after Ukrainian special forces said they had killed him.

In video and photographs released by the defence ministry, Sokolov was shown as one of several fleet commanders on video apparently joining an in-person meeting of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and other army chiefs, although not speaking. It was not clear when the video was filmed.

Ukraine's special forces said on Monday that Sokolov had been killed along with 33 other officers in a missile attack last week on the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in the port of Sevastopol in Crimea, seized from Ukraine in 2014.

In response to the Russian video, the Ukraine special forces said on Telegram: "Since the Russians were urgently forced to publish a response with Sokolov allegedly alive, our units are clarifying the information."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-black-sea-commander-shown-working-after-ukraine-said-it-killed-him-2023-09-26/

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This war has taught me to refine which sources to believe. So far, I believe what U.S. military and intelligence officials say. Their record on calling this war has been spot on. However, they are often overshadowed by the policymakers they serve. These are the politicians in the White House and the Cabinet officials, who I trust less. They often go against what the military and intelligence officials say, and get things wrong.

I do NOT trust former U.S. government officials who have made a life of being experts. They have a pretty poor track record in this war. Almost like as soon as they leave government service, they lose the judgment they previously had. 

Most of all, think tank experts and researchers have been ridiculously wrong. I've seen them get proven spectacularly wrong in their predictions. Almost like they know just a little bit more about what's going on than you or I. 

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12 hours ago, tsar4 said:

2 questionable sources (Business Insider, The Sun) are reporting that the attack that did not kill Admiral Viktor Sokolov, was brought about by unpaid Russian Officers who sold intel to the Ukrainians because they have not been paid.

Ive seen the same thing floating around.


The thing with this kind of report is that in wartime it doesnt have to be true to be effective. If the rumors start to float around within the Russian army that Ukraine will pay for intel then others might take the opportunity to make a quick buck. Morale in the Russian army is reportedly low right now as well. Seems like a smart play to either release this info after the fact, or to release fake stories and see what might shake loose within the Russian army.

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This sounds similar to previous instances. Take this article from April 2022 as an example

 

Russia investigates report of British SAS forces in Ukraine

Russian media report alleges that the SAS has deployed to the Lviv region in western Ukraine.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/23/russia-investigates-report-of-british-sas-forces-in-ukraine

 

Or this article from a year later in April 2023. 

 

Leaked Pentagon documents claim elite British special forces are in Ukraine

A total of 50 members of British special forces were deployed to war-hit nation as of 23 March, according to new leaked document

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/uk-special-forces-ukraine-pentagon-leak-b2318290.html

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39 minutes ago, Icarus27k said:

I find the subject of Russian wonder weapons, a traditional thing Russia does, to be obnoxious. It's done for jingoism not actual utility in war. 

I know - I've lived through quite a few decades of Russian bluster, including, "We will bury you!" (and I know that wasn't about annihilation).

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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-planning-mine-black-sea-target-ukraine-grain-ships-rcna118946

 

"Russia is taking a beating in the Black Sea. Is it plotting a new escalation?

Britain said it has intelligence that suggests the Kremlin is seeking to target civilian cargo ships and pin the attacks on Ukraine.
 

KYIV, Ukraine — Britain says it has intelligence that Russia is trying to target civilian cargo ships carrying grain in the Black Sea by laying sea mines and planning to blame any attacks on Ukraine.

The U.K. did not provide any evidence for the allegation, which comes as Ukraine appears to be gaining momentum in the fight over the crucial sea, which is both Kyiv’s main export corridor and a launchpad for Russian attacks."

 
 
Because this is a great idea that will not have any bad outcomes. Mining the sea in no way risks major escalation. No chance this backfires and things have to get "Proportional".

 

 

Reference for those who don't get it:

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Russia knows the war is ultimately a stalemate (No one will invade Russia because no one wants to invade Russia!  No one has a problem with Russia existing till it tries to invade other nations!) so Putin will keep throwing meat at the grinder.

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23 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

Ukraine has reportedly crossed the Dnipro just west of Kherson City

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1714689007118921828

Yahoo has a story confirming that not only are they across the river, but they have established a position to now launch further attacks from.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-forces-cross-dnipro-river-182000162.html?guccounter=1

 

This is a pretty big deal.

The article also points out that the UA now has ATACMS and have used them to help this push. They can penetrate much further than HIMARS can, but are launched from the same platform. So the UA has a hell of a new weapon that they can use to reach even further into occupied territory, and Russia itself.

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1. Allies of Ukraine have put stipulations on their military aid saying Ukraine can't use it to hit Russia (internationally recognized Russian territory). 

2. These are a specific kind of ATACMS. Ones that have a shorter range than other versions. This range is less than what many pro-Ukraine people had been hoping for. It's also the cluster munition version of ATACMS. (Other versions are single warhead.) It's a cluster bomb that has a range significantly greater than ordinary cluster artillery. It's not suitable for specific targets. It just hits many things over an area. Ukraine could not use it, for example, to target a specific building. 

3. Ukraine has already been using long-range precision missiles with single warheads (the Storm Shadow and Scalp). 

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