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Putin: "Stick to the timeline!"


tsar4

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Two years of War...

"According to a recent poll, 59% of Russians support the idea of Russia joining the European Union…" I wrote on 17 May 2001.

"Nato and Russia are actively seeking closer cooperation: a sign to both sides that the real threat to world peace lies not with each other…" [20 November 2001]

So, where did it all go wrong? I'm not the only person wondering.

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2 hours ago, tsar4 said:

Two years of War...

"According to a recent poll, 59% of Russians support the idea of Russia joining the European Union…" I wrote on 17 May 2001.

"Nato and Russia are actively seeking closer cooperation: a sign to both sides that the real threat to world peace lies not with each other…" [20 November 2001]

So, where did it all go wrong? I'm not the only person wondering.

We were treating Russia as a normal country, an aspiring liberal democracy. And then, a candidate for the president of Ukraine gets poisoned and then an anti-Putin Russian writer gets murdered. 

And we thought, "huh, that's weird but it's not enough to make a big case out of". 

This continues till 2014 when we were alarmed by the Russian annexation of Crimea but still thought "okay that's bad but hopefully that's all". 

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7 minutes ago, Icarus27k said:

We were treating Russia as a normal country, an aspiring liberal democracy. And then, a candidate for the president of Ukraine gets poisoned and then an anti-Putin Russian writer gets murdered. 

And we thought, "huh, that's weird but it's not enough to make a big case out of". 

This continues till 2014 when we were alarmed by the Russian annexation of Crimea but still thought "okay that's bad but hopefully that's all". 

"Ah, just give Hitler the Sudetenland.  It will shut him up and nobody will care."

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7 minutes ago, tsar4 said:

"Ah, just give Hitler the Sudetenland.  It will shut him up and nobody will care."

There are nuanced differences though. Nazi Germany was definitely the strongest army in the world at the time. Putin's Russia is not. It's being held in place by a smaller country that it just tried to absorb but failed at doing that. 

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11 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Saw this a few days ago.  I swear Putin was playing the 'long game', having Russians relocate to European countries to start enclaves.  Later, they either request assistance or claim they're systemically being hassled by the host country's Gov't. allowing Putin to start another "special operation".

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Periodic perspective:

Russia has dedicated practically its entire army to conquering Ukraine, and it's still not enough. They have to mobilize Russian men and change the entire Russian economy into a defense industry focused on the war. And they can't take over the Donbass, much less all of Ukraine.

The USA was able to dedicate only a portion of its army to two theaters of war (Afghanistan and Iraq) for 10-20 years. And average Americans never saw any change in their daily lives the entire time. 

 

Also, Russia has had hundreds of thousands of fatalities while the USA had like 10,000. 

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Remember that the US State Department warned of an imminent attack not that long ago.

My first thought is this is a false flag attack that Putin is going to blame on Ukraine and use as an excuse to escalate the war.

Theres plenty of video already online of inside the concert hall during the attack.

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Just started seeing that reported as well.

Chechnya maybe? There was talk at the very start of the Ukraine war that Chechnya might start acting up because so many Russian forces had to be removed from there to fight in Ukraine. Wouldnt be shocked at all if it turns out this came from there.


Or that its a false flag. Im still banking on false flag. Putin has a history of using false flag attacks.

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On 2/22/2024 at 9:24 PM, Icarus27k said:

We were treating Russia as a normal country, an aspiring liberal democracy. And then, a candidate for the president of Ukraine gets poisoned and then an anti-Putin Russian writer gets murdered. 

And we thought, "huh, that's weird but it's not enough to make a big case out of". 

This continues till 2014 when we were alarmed by the Russian annexation of Crimea but still thought "okay that's bad but hopefully that's all". 

The thing is that Putin showed his ass pretty much from the beginning of his time in power, everybody just chose to ignore it.  

He was suppressing dissent from the beginning.  And after more than 20 years, well...not super shocking that there's not much open dissent anymore.  20 years in politics is a very long time.  

Invading a neighbor?  Putin did it already in 2008, in Georgia, with almost no consequences.  So then he decided to get more bold and try to grab Crimea.  Still few meaningful consequences.  So was him launching a full invasion of Ukraine really shocking, or a natural progression?  He'd already showed his ambition.  

The lack of humanity, the destructiveness, the brutality of the Ukraine war?  Putin did all of it already in Chechnya.  Before there was Mariupol, there was Grozny.  Then after Putin crushed them he installed a strongman loyalist to rule them.  

Chechnya was a brutal, savage conflict that cast a long shadow over Russia and it's neighbors.  It destabilized the whole North Caucasus, showed very low value for human life, killed or displaced large numbers of people, and was a major generational trauma for multiple assorted ethnicities of Russia, yet it's rarely mentioned by Western analysts unless it's politically convenient to do so, which is kind of amazing to me.  

Eastern Europeans though...they paid attention and didn't forget.  Ukraine actually gave refuge to Chechens who didn't want to live under Putin, and now some of them/their children are returning the favor by fighting in the Ukrainian army.  

Chechnya has cast a very long shadow over the whole region.  

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Posted (edited)

When I first heard of this attack, I was afraid it was some group doing it in Ukraine's name or that Putin would claim Ukraine was behind it.  Instead, it was ISIS & the US warned Russia something was brewing...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68642162

image.png.1a60e607b10b797b3ab62802e7dc6a1c.png

Edit: as much distain as I have for Russia, it's for the Government & cronies, not the general populace.  No one should have to suffer this.

Edited by tsar4
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On 2/28/2024 at 8:27 PM, tsar4 said:

Saw this a few days ago.  I swear Putin was playing the 'long game', having Russians relocate to European countries to start enclaves.  Later, they either request assistance or claim they're systemically being hassled by the host country's Gov't. allowing Putin to start another "special operation".

Nah, this population mess goes back to before Putin was even born.  

A lot of it can be blamed on Stalin, population transfers were one of his common tactics to deal with nationalists and assorted other "troublemakers".  

He would remove the ethnic group to Siberia or Central Asia or whatever and bring ethnic Russians into their lands (this was not always consensual for the Russians either). 

In the later Soviet era some of these ethnic groups were allowed to move back to their homelands, but authorities still had a heavy hand on the situation and heavily suppressed nationalism.  

But it backfired, and instead surged across almost the whole former commie bloc once the boot on their necks was gone, leading population movements, ethnic cleansings, religious revival, xenophobia, etc.

Transnistria is a difficult problem to solve because wtf do you even do with those people?  

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On 3/17/2024 at 9:50 AM, Icarus27k said:

Periodic perspective:

Russia has dedicated practically its entire army to conquering Ukraine, and it's still not enough. They have to mobilize Russian men and change the entire Russian economy into a defense industry focused on the war. And they can't take over the Donbass, much less all of Ukraine.

The USA was able to dedicate only a portion of its army to two theaters of war (Afghanistan and Iraq) for 10-20 years. And average Americans never saw any change in their daily lives the entire time. 

 

Also, Russia has had hundreds of thousands of fatalities while the USA had like 10,000. 

Putin has been reluctant to fully mobilize Russian men because he knows there's going to be massive negative effects to that.  

Just look at what happened with the first (partial) mobilization, millions of men fled the country, and a significant proportion of those were exactly the kind of men Russia didn't want to lose --- men with money and assets, educated professionals, men with valuable skills, working-and-starting-families age men.  

So far the Russian army has been disproportionately composed of ethnic minorities, criminals, poor provincial alcoholics, and foreigners (they have been intentionally targeting Africans and Central Asians for recruitment, as well as targeting illegal migrants). 

Undesirables, pretty much.  Casualty numbers mean much less when the majority of your population doesn't really care if they die.  (Which sounds harsh to say, but...)

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1 hour ago, Icarus27k said:

 

 

 

Russian security services already claimed to have thwarted one planned attack by ISIS-K not far from Moscow earlier this month.  

Moscow also has a significant minority population of Central Asians, the main demographic of ISIS-K recruits.  And Central Asians are in general disliked by Russians.  

So...we'll see how all the threads come together and what the bigger fallout will be here.  

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Regarding today's terrorist attack.  

According to my husband, the general common opinion on Russian social media right now seems to be that this was most likely a false flag attack and/or an attack that was known but was "allowed" to happen to serve a greater goal.  

Some of their evidence: that mall usually has police.  There was no police presence at the time the attack started.  Police took 90 minutes to respond to the scene, and the perpetrators escaped.  

Husband said even some of the people he knows who are very stupid and don't normally question anything are suspicious. 

You can take from that what you will.  

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