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Putin: "Stick to the timeline!"


tsar4

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1 hour ago, Poof said:

On the contrary... at the beginning I thought it wasn't about invading europe. Now I don't even think he actually cares about taking ukraine at all. I think he's showing the asian countries who are hesitant to join his alliance what happens when you go against the West even if you're not attacking anyone actually in an alliance with them (demonstrating the double standard) whilst also trying to exacerbate our inflation and economic problems(since he knows we're about to raise our rates). 

I think we dun fucked up a lot bigger than originally thought actually.

I don't see a lot of evidence suggesting this.  I'm assuming the qualifier here is that Mongolia is in on the deal, thus "adding" to the Sino-Russo alliance?

In the greater scheme of things (and aside from MD's rosy interpretation of how our sanctions impact Russia), there isn't much to be said about how the United States responded to Putin's set-up and invasion.  The sanctions are ultimately being enforced by the stakeholders most impacted by the loss of Russian exports; we're just here mostly as moral support for the EU and military hardware supplier for the Ukraine.  That being said, you're also not indicating that this "deal" is somehow creating a global shift:  the two main players are essentially the same and only one of them, China, has an expanding economy.  If Russia is showing anybody anything, it's showing China that if they wait it out they're going to move the focus if power away from Moscow to Beijing without having to do a single thing.

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35 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

The biggest risk at this point is that he becomes completely unhinged and either expands the war or deploys tactical nukes against Ukraine.  Hes already started to shell residential areas, theres not a whole lot further he can go. The idea that he will be able to occupy a peaceful Ukraine with a relatively intact economy is completely gone.

I would say the biggest risk is that Putin finds a way to recover from this without losing power, which is still a pretty safe bet at this point.  Nonetheless, if he is completely unhinged, China will most certainly step in and stop him before he starts a nuclear winter.  Arguably, having Putin go insane publicly gives China the escape route it desperately needs right now:  it can be a more palatable resistance partner to the West and the US specifically to whomever steps up to oust Putin.

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26 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

I would say the biggest risk is that Putin finds a way to recover from this without losing power, which is still a pretty safe bet at this point.  Nonetheless, if he is completely unhinged, China will most certainly step in and stop him before he starts a nuclear winter.  Arguably, having Putin go insane publicly gives China the escape route it desperately needs right now:  it can be a more palatable resistance partner to the West and the US specifically to whomever steps up to oust Putin.

Thats a really good point. If he somehow retains power thats a pretty bad outcome. I do have to wonder how likely that is though. We arent going to take him out, but theres a growing amount of rumbling from the Oligarchs who are pissed off. If anyone would take him out, its them. Even if he stays in power, how much power is he going to have? I dont know what sort of apatite the powers in Russia will have for letting Putin keep his power after this.

 

China is arguably gaining the most of anyone with this.  Russia is being exposed and China can just sit back and watch as their sphere of influence grows. Central Asian countries wont look to Russia anymore, they'll look to China.

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Central Asia was already looking to China before the invasion, either as a partner or as a threat.  China has had deeper pockets when coming into into smaller, less affluent countries, making them the natural ally in the absence of deep Western connections.  I think it's safe to say that Putin's current actions are effectively capitulating any attempt at primacy over the East to its neighbor.  We also have to consider the invasion a last-ditch effort by Putin to regain influence over his Western neighbors.  But, there is certainly does not appear to be a greater plan on his part, and the fact that he decided to engage in an ill-fated invasion is evidence of his waning ability to manipulate others.

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Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet Union.  He clearly stated as much when he was talking about the invasion to Ukraine. That idea is 100% dead.  If they cant handle Ukraine, he cant handle the rest of the old soviet bloc countries. Not to mention the ones that are in NATO.

His lifes work has been to splinter NATO, and thats also an unmitigated failure. Germany has woken up and is spending a ton on modernizing and improving their military. If anything, NATO is more united now than at any point in the last few decades. 

 

Its really hard to look at this and think that Putin is in any way going to win.  He may take Ukraine, but its going to come at such an extreme cost that it will eventually cause him to lose the war.

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Russia wants NATO interference because that would give the Russian people an enemy they could actually rally behind.  It’s why the administration is going with de-escalation and financial punishment instead.

Also, the ruble is now worth less than Dogecoin, a joke crypto.


image.png.284d6967a0ac34be34cae1baaa43ceab.png

Edited by Jman
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1 hour ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet Union.  He clearly stated as much when he was talking about the invasion to Ukraine. That idea is 100% dead.  If they cant handle Ukraine, he cant handle the rest of the old soviet bloc countries. Not to mention the ones that are in NATO.

His lifes work has been to splinter NATO, and thats also an unmitigated failure. Germany has woken up and is spending a ton on modernizing and improving their military. If anything, NATO is more united now than at any point in the last few decades. 

 

Its really hard to look at this and think that Putin is in any way going to win.  He may take Ukraine, but its going to come at such an extreme cost that it will eventually cause him to lose the war.

You need only look at Russian attempts at interfering in our elections to have a general idea of what Putin's aims actually were before this whole Ukraine debacle.

For a very long time, Russia has been ceding influence to other up and coming powers.  China is the most substantial, but there have been other smaller nations that have expanded their own spheres of influence in regional hot spots.  Turkey, for instance, was able to use the decline of Assad and the resulting infiltration of ISIS to expand its reach throughout the western parts of Asia Minor and the Easter Mediterranean.  India has for several decades now been solidifying its own power on the international stage; with outset of the pandemic it was leveraging its manufacturing abilities to play a greater role in the international COVID response (to decidedly mixed results).  Even the Arabian Penninsula has been able to use its petroleum wealth spur rampant development and create a budding turf war amongst the emirates in the region.  Whereas these budding regional powers needed markets and infrastructure to build their wealth initially, they are now mature enough to take control from the superpowers of their commercial spaces.  The United States has, for the most part (and despite Trump's best efforts) been able to navigate this by keeping its own regional alliances somewhat active.  Russia, on the other hand, has had to increasingly compete with its neighbors for market share of exports of its natural resources, the one commodity it can rely on to bring in capital.

Putin's stated distrust of NATO more or less boils down to this:  Russia needs Europe to buy and consume its natural resources, and with that purchase it hopes to have a greater say in Europe's economies.  While expressly a military alliance, NATO brings with it economic ties as well.  It allows various members access to military hardware to be sure, and, at the same time, it provides defensive protection for the smaller member states not just against a dying Russia but against the various insurgency groups that risen to fill the void left by the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Foisting an inept and profoundly stupid man into the American Presidency was most likely Putin's attempt at damaging NATO just enough to give Russia an opportunity to compete.  A lot has been made about his willingness to relive the days of the Communist empire, but its really only the influence part that matters.  He wants to relive the days where  Russia could keep the US in check by currying favor with allies (or hostage states) and reaping the benefits of these far reaching and disparate economies.  I imagine he saw Russia as the worthy inheritor of the (not-so-) great European imperial dynasties that began to die off for good in the late nineteenth century, and a NATO that rather than being a puppet for the American government was actually acting like an mutually beneficial alliance.

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15 minutes ago, tsar4 said:

Ya gotta love it...

image.png.91666eb516d37b192501d895538627b0.png

Kind of surprised it took this long.

A lot of people in the Russian language subreddit are expressing disinterest in learning the language now. Quite a shame that Russians are gonna face discrimination for quite some time because of one asshole. I still like Russian culture, despite it all.

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59 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

Per @Poof:

 

Cold War 2 goes like... China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia are united in their dislike of the NATO hegemony. They can't fight us bc as the graphic I posted before shows:

1-Es4k2ezbtp6-X5-r-j-I-Kg.png

We pretty much are the world order. Even together, they couldn't take us on at this time. So China focuses on growing, funding, trading, and avoiding direct conflict w/us. If it did otherwise, we would destroy their $64 trillion economy. It's Iran, North Korea, and Russia's job to harass and impede our interests, influence, and economic growth. Secondarily they also keep large armies / nukes. They do these things and absorb the sanctions we put on them for it, leaving China relatively free to trade and grow. It's a very long term strategy.

This isn't me demonizing these countries either. It's not only smart, it's the only way to compete against us, and they can pursue this strategy without ever seeking WW3. I'm not saying they're evil or want to kill us all or anything.

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8 hours ago, scoobdog said:

Of the four you mention in your new new axis, only China will be solvent after this mess.  So, what, is China going to carry three dead weight countries just to stick it to the US?

The other thing to keep in mind is that India and China do not have good relations.  India-Russia might, but if Russia falls into Chinas orbit then India is going to bolt.  There is zero chance that India starts to support China.

 

Bush started to make inroads with India to try and pull them to the West.  If a new Russia-China axis develops after this then whoever is POTUS needs to aggressively court India. 

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16 hours ago, scoobdog said:

Of the four you mention in your new new axis, only China will be solvent after this mess.  So, what, is China going to carry three dead weight countries just to stick it to the US?

It's not carrying. It's just trade and economic cooperation.

At this point it's still just a potential alliance. It's absolutely Putin's objective to expand CSTO tho. And I think he's just done a really good job at bringing everyone together over the years. So much so that I think one day very far in the future(long after he's dead) his alliance will include china and iran. Like....

Spoiler

CSTO now

CSTO.png

CSTO future

CSTO-Copy.png

 

I think the only ones that might have to be hostile takeovers beyond ukraine would be, moldova, georgia, turkmenistan. I don't think he can scalp any of the interior non-nato states like not even Serbia. But if he could get iran to join, all those countries in the iranian sphere of influence would eventually join too I think (afghanistan idk but putin is interested). I don't think there could be ideological resistance to Russia and Iran both trying to get you to come onboard. Mongolia is a similar case. If China goes, mongolia will too. Is it all so far fetched?

Edited by Poof
azerbaijan is Russia ally now
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2 hours ago, Poof said:

It's not carrying. It's just trade and economic cooperation.

It is when the financial responsibilities in the cooperation fall mostly on one side.

2 hours ago, Poof said:

At this point it's still just a potential alliance. It's absolutely Putin's objective to expand CSTO tho. And I think he's just done a really good job at bringing everyone together over the years. So much so that I think one day very far in the future(long after he's dead) his alliance will include china and iran. Like....

  Reveal hidden contents

CSTO now

CSTO.png

CSTO future

CSTO-Copy.png

 

I think the only ones that might have to be hostile takeovers beyond ukraine would be, moldova, georgia, azerbaijan, turkmenistan. I don't think he can scalp any of the interior non-nato states like not even Serbia. But if he could get iran to join, all those countries in the iranian sphere of influence would eventually join too I think (afghanistan idk but putin is interested). I don't think there could be ideological resistance to Russia and Iran both trying to get you to come onboard. Mongolia is a similar case. If China goes, mongolia will too. Is it all so far fetched?

I agree he's been trying for such an alliance, and if it hadn't been for the series of disastrous invasions he most definitely would have been there by now.  The problem isn't that such an alliance isn't still possible, it's that the partner responsible for coalescing that alliance isn't Russia.  China has been running its own charm offensive for nearly as long as Russia has and been just as if not more successful at building a worldwide network that can sustain its manufacturing ability.  On the domestic front, Xi's most recent conservative crackdown is more of a blip on the radar than anything and it may have a more to do with upcoming 20th Party Congress than any concerted effort to change the current power dynamics.  Even so, China's manufacturing and tech sectors still rival any other country in the world and far outstrip Russia's fading counterparts.  China has the potential right now to take the reigns of a future Eastern Bloc and whoever takes over from Putin when he's inevitably ousted is going to be chasing them.

The question is whether of not China wants or needs such an alliance at the moment.  I would suggest they don't now, but may in the future.

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1 hour ago, scoobdog said:

It is when the financial responsibilities in the cooperation fall mostly on one side.

I agree he's been trying for such an alliance, and if it hadn't been for the series of disastrous invasions he most definitely would have been there by now.  The problem isn't that such an alliance isn't still possible, it's that the partner responsible for coalescing that alliance isn't Russia.  China has been running its own charm offensive for nearly as long as Russia has and been just as if not more successful at building a worldwide network that can sustain its manufacturing ability.  On the domestic front, Xi's most recent conservative crackdown is more of a blip on the radar than anything and it may have a more to do with upcoming 20th Party Congress than any concerted effort to change the current power dynamics.  Even so, China's manufacturing and tech sectors still rival any other country in the world and far outstrip Russia's fading counterparts.  China has the potential right now to take the reigns of a future Eastern Bloc and whoever takes over from Putin when he's inevitably ousted is going to be chasing them.

The question is whether of not China wants or needs such an alliance at the moment.  I would suggest they don't now, but may in the future.

How cheap do you think you could buy natural resources from a blacklisted nation if you were the only real buyer? It's symbiotic. What are the financial responsibilities?

You're right China and Iran do run their own spheres of influence. It doesn't matter if it ends up being Iran and China joining the CSTO, or if China and Iran start regional alliances of their own, then all 3 regional alliances join together. The particulars don't matter. The western bloc I put together is an intertwining of different alliances too. It's not all NATO. And Putin is aware of what China joining the CSTO or this hypothetical coalition means. He knows he won't be king of asia. He knows if he tried to, it wouldn't work. Not in the 20ish possible years he has left to live. He is realistic in his goals I think.

 

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3 minutes ago, Poof said:

How cheap do you think you could buy natural resources from a blacklisted nation if you were the only real buyer? It's symbiotic. What are the financial responsibilities

For about as cheap as you could get it from a South American country that also desperately needs the money and has none of the sanctions to contend with.

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7 minutes ago, Poof said:

You're right China and Iran do run their own spheres of influence. It doesn't matter if it ends up being Iran and China joining the CSTO, or if China and Iran start regional alliances of their own, then all 3 regional alliances join together. The particulars don't matter. The western bloc I put together is an intertwining of different alliances too. It's not all NATO. And Putin is aware of what China joining the CSTO or this hypothetical coalition means. He knows he won't be king of asia. He knows if he tried to, it wouldn't work. Not in the 20ish possible years he has left to live. He is realistic in his goals I think.

It would be the only thing he's realistic about.  Like it or not, the invasion of the Ukraine was a huge unforced error that cost him any chance of retaining control of Russia's destiny.  That means achieving whatever other goals he might still have unattained are wholly dependent on China at this point.  

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2 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Cant think of a better way to really turn the heat up and guarantee decades worth of insurgency than to strike at the heart of a national religion.

 

Its like putin is trying to ensure that the Ukraine is a battlefield for decades to come.

They're going scorched earth now that it's clear they aren't just walking in, they're more geared to artillery and bombings anyhow.

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5 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

For about as cheap as you could get it from a South American country that also desperately needs the money and has none of the sanctions to contend with.

Which south american countries? The ones that routinely break our sanctions with Iran?

1 minute ago, scoobdog said:

It would be the only thing he's realistic about.  Like it or not, the invasion of the Ukraine was a huge unforced error that cost him any chance of retaining control of Russia's destiny.  That means achieving whatever other goals he might still have unattained are wholly dependent on China at this point.  

You're right that he depends on China for any hope of success. You're wrong to assume the dependency began now. It's always been that way, and that's why what his interests are what they are. That's why he has to do things this way, and that's why I think the invasion is net positive, not an error.

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It hasn't always been that way, no, but it certainly started well before the invasion.  Russia has been on a steady decline since well before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and subsequent attempts by post soviet leadership has consistently failed to reignite manufacturing and industrial sectors.  China entering the scene as a savior is only recent, however, and the amount of help they're willing to offer is going to be limited by what is in their best interests.

Why do you think Russia has to do this to better its relationship with China?

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1 minute ago, scoobdog said:

It hasn't always been that way, no, but it certainly started well before the invasion.  Russia has been on a steady decline since well before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and subsequent attempts by post soviet leadership has consistently failed to reignite manufacturing and industrial sectors.  China entering the scene as a savior is only recent, however, and the amount of help they're willing to offer is going to be limited by what is in their best interests.

Why do you think Russia has to do this to better its relationship with China?

Putin wants to oppose NATO, it's the only thing he cares about. He considers Russia's best interest and opposing NATO to be synonymous. Building a Eurasian alliance is the only way to oppose NATO. I couldn't imagine anything else he could do that would work. That's why he's always needed China. He / Russia don't HAVE to do it, but to pursue their interest of standing up to NATO, yes they need China. Therefor he needs and has always needed China.

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1 minute ago, Poof said:

Putin wants to oppose NATO, it's the only thing he cares about. He considers Russia's best interest and opposing NATO to be synonymous. Building a Eurasian alliance is the only way to oppose NATO. I couldn't imagine anything else he could do that would work. That's why he's always needed China. He / Russia don't HAVE to do it, but to pursue their interest of standing up to NATO, yes they need China. Therefor he needs and has always needed China.

He didn't need to destroy his own country and crash his economy into the side of a mountain.  China had good relations with Russia before.  They weren't for NATO before the invasion.  THey would have been on board with an alliance without invasion.

Now they're not as likely to get into an alliance or oppose NATO openly because of it.  They have too much money tied up in Europe to take up a doomed cause.

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The national sanctions are huge, but the pure number of corporations who are completely leaving Russia may wind up being bigger. It doesnt matter if there are sanctions if no one will do business with you.

 

Russia is going to be completely isolated from all the major corporations, and who knows when, if ever, they would go back.

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40 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

He didn't need to destroy his own country and crash his economy into the side of a mountain.  China had good relations with Russia before.  They weren't for NATO before the invasion.  THey would have been on board with an alliance without invasion.

Now they're not as likely to get into an alliance or oppose NATO openly because of it.  They have too much money tied up in Europe to take up a doomed cause.

Again, they just finalized the deal on the new pipeline during the debut of this war. China isn't condemning the invasion. What more do you want? Also I'm talking about this alliance being formed over decades and decades. Like boiling the frog slowly. If they turn the heat up too fast the frog gets mad, sends sanctions and the CIA.

This invasion satisfies all the objectives I've been talking about. It expands CSTO, it fucks with us economically (this will probably induce a recession), it further divides europe and asia, brings together the asian countries. 

The case that he makes to everyone in asia is that no one is safe from the west until they all band together. It's true too. Letting his country get sanctioned proves that you can't do what you want. You have to listen to the west. The west gets to invade whoever they want, but if you do the exact same thing, you'll be punished. 

And you need to think of the economic damage as the payment for buying Ukraine, if the invasion is successful...

Edited by Poof
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For everyone thinking China is getting cold feet, they aren't.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-vetoes-un-security-action-ukraine-china-abstains-2022-02-25/

"The U.N. vote was delayed two hours for last minute negotiations by the United States and others to win China's abstention, diplomats said.

The council softened the language in its resolution to say it "deplores" Russia's "aggression against Ukraine" from "condemns," while a reference to Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, which deals with sanctions and authorization of force, was removed along with a reference to "the president.""

That is kind of the opposite of getting cold feet. China is still committed to its partnership with Russia. Unless the world starts to sanction China the Russian oligarchs will not feel the bite of sanctions.

 

 

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One of the problem with indiscriminately firing weapons into civilian areas is eventually you are going to kill civilians from friendly nations.

 

Russia isnt going to stop until they have pissed off everyone.  Really starting to wonder when someone in the Kremlin isnt going to do the math and realize that taking out Putin is the better option.

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7 hours ago, Poof said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

CSTO now

CSTO.png

CSTO future

CSTO-Copy.png

 

I think the only ones that might have to be hostile takeovers beyond ukraine would be, moldova, georgia, azerbaijan, turkmenistan.

I have to go back and edit this bc I missed that Azerbaijan just allied with Russia.

https://eurasianet.org/ahead-of-ukraine-invasion-azerbaijan-and-russia-cement-alliance

Azerbaijan is the land route between russia and Iran, btw...

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2 hours ago, Poof said:

Again, they just finalized the deal on the new pipeline during the debut of this war. China isn't condemning the invasion. What more do you want? Also I'm talking about this alliance being formed over decades and decades. Like boiling the frog slowly. If they turn the heat up too fast the frog gets mad, sends sanctions and the CIA.

This invasion satisfies all the objectives I've been talking about. It expands CSTO, it fucks with us economically (this will probably induce a recession), it further divides europe and asia, brings together the asian countries. 

The case that he makes to everyone in asia is that no one is safe from the west until they all band together. It's true too. Letting his country get sanctioned proves that you can't do what you want. You have to listen to the west. The west gets to invade whoever they want, but if you do the exact same thing, you'll be punished. 

And you need to think of the economic damage as the payment for buying Ukraine, if the invasion is successful...

It's a case he didn't need to make, and I disagree with the assertion that it brings together the Asian countries.  There is no evidence to suggest it has.

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18 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

It's a case he didn't need to make, and I disagree with the assertion that it brings together the Asian countries.  There is no evidence to suggest it has.

I hope you're right Scoob

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They completely froze my Gazprom shares today. I figured they’d still let you close out but no. Now I have to have it forever haha. Funny I’m not allowed to do business w/Gazprom even tho we’re literally still gonna be paying them since energy companies are excluded from the sanctions. That’s why I bought it (I learned it from you!), for academic purposes. I swear I didn’t buy it bc of my compulsion to do things that will put me on government lists. Just notice me senpai 🎈🥺 🇺🇸 I’m here

edit: They are allowing people to sell today even tho the email claimed selling would be halted too.

Edited by Poof
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