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UnevenEdge

2022 Midterms: Oh god, not again


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I’d say “if that happens there will be riots” but we didn’t burn anything down when roe v Wade was reversed so I’m sure it’ll be crickets if the scotus decides it’s ok to completely override the will and vote of the people. Traditionally the electors vote the way the people voted let’s see if that tradition means anything. Justice Roberts likes to use tradition as justification for their decisions let’s see how things play out 

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The US has been violating child labor laws with some States going as far as to loosen their child labor laws. Allowing minors to work hours that would interfere with school 

I voiced concern a few years back when college education started being attacked because throughout history education and the inteligencia get attacked first. The US is purposely dumbing down its citizens so that we’ll all be ok with the death of democracy 

what does this have to do with the midterm elections?  When the GOP retakes the majority we will all find out

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"High school isnt for everyone, thats why McDonald's is excited to announce its new Mcprenticeships! Get real-world experience in the most in-demand field, get out of going to school, and enjoy a free meal on us every day! Qualifying Mcprentices can even enroll in our McCareer Path: after four years of service take advantage of our reduced-cost GED program and someday you could become a manager!"

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11 minutes ago, SwimModSponges said:

Seniors 65+ have already cast 8x the votes than 18-29ers.

image.png.a012e876c4dd8faf8b00206099cd7ec9.png

Yeah because a lot of young people are going the Benji route and saying fuck it....I watch the GA race more than my own and a video I saw said early turnout was down like 30% and unsure if they'd vote at all in Fulton

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58 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

When the GOP retakes the majority we will all find out

A little back-of-the-envelope Senate math:

in 2024, the Dems have to defend seats in WV, OH, MT, AZ, and NV with no obvious pickup opportunities (class I is a Dem-heavy map, presidential year)

in 2026, the Dems have to defend GA, but only have possible pickup opportunities in Maine and NC (class II is a GOP-heavy map, midterm)

there won't be another widely competitive senate map where Dems can win new seats until this (class III) is up for reelection again in 2028 (presidential year)

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https://nypost.com/2022/11/04/south-dakota-senate-candidate-joel-koskan-charged-with-felony-child-abuse/

Quote

South Dakota Senate candidate Joel Koskan accused of grooming, raping child family member

A Republican running for South Dakota state Senate was charged with felony child abuse Thursday for allegedly grooming and raping a young family member for years, according to local reports.

[...]

These allegations concerning Joel Koskan are deeply disturbing, and he should immediately end his campaign,” party chairman Randy Seiler said in a statement. “While he will still appear on the ballot, the choice for the voters of District 26 couldn’t be clearer. Partisan politics aside, Joel Koskan should not be voting in the legislature on issues that affect South Dakota kids — or any issues at all.”

Remember when Walker got caught paying for his mistresses abortion, having secret kids, and horrible domestic abuse?

And he's still winning?

Yeah

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31 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

A little back-of-the-envelope Senate math:

in 2024, the Dems have to defend seats in WV, OH, MT, AZ, and NV with no obvious pickup opportunities (class I is a Dem-heavy map, presidential year)

in 2026, the Dems have to defend GA, but only have possible pickup opportunities in Maine and NC (class II is a GOP-heavy map, midterm)

there won't be another widely competitive senate map where Dems can win new seats until this (class III) is up for reelection again in 2028 (presidential year)

That means we’re about to find out, no? And it will be a long time before democrats ever have a majority again?

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8 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

That means we’re about to find out, no? And it will be a long time before democrats ever have a majority again?

If PA/GA/NV collapse, yeah. Unless something crazy happens and the cult frees itself, or if there are more one-offs like Doug Jones, probably a decade at least. The Dems would need to come out of this with 53 seats to not need to depend on Tester, Brown, and Manchin defying gravity for yet another cycle in 2024. Given that it's turning into a more regular midterm cycle where the out-party has the hate advantage and the kids won't vote, that's off the table.

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Week old news, but fun anyways. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/adam-weeks-minnesota-house-candidate-recruited-by-republicans/

Quote

Adam Weeks was never going to win Minnesota's 2nd District seat in Congress, but the deceased Legal Marijuana Now Party candidate has had an outsized effect on the race. His death in September from an apparent accidental fentanyl overdose set off a legal battle over whether the contest should be delayed until February.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Tuesday that it won't be.

Now, according to a published report, Weeks left a voicemail for a friend in which he said he was recruited to the race by Republicans solely to siphon votes away from Democratic Rep. Angie Craig in a competitive suburban-to-rural district south of Minneapolis.

https://www.kare11.com/article/news/local/breaking-the-news/ad-from-right-wing-pac-urges-vote-for-deceased-candidate/89-a4ca3b83-c9db-4dd0-a21b-e174d2430c93

Quote

Ad from right-wing PAC urges vote for deceased 3rd party candidate
Experts say the bizarre ad in the 2nd Congressional District is an effort to siphon votes from Democrat Angie Craig.
Author: Kent Erdahl
Published: 7:48 PM CDT November 3, 2022
Updated: 7:48 PM CDT November 3, 2022
ST PAUL, Minn. — The final days of an election tend to feature a few political stunts, but an online ad encouraging people to vote for someone who has died? That's enough to surprise even political professionals.

"I think this is probably unprecedented," said Brian McClung, CEO of Part Street Public Government Relations, and a former Republican campaign manager in Minnesota. "You know, we hear lots of stories in politics about dead people voting in Chicago, and now we have an ad asking people to vote for someone who is dead, and that is really bizarre."

image.thumb.png.34f5fe0d2ad77128506fef2d5de15ddf.png

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11 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

If PA/GA/NV collapse, yeah. Unless something crazy happens and the cult frees itself, or if there are more one-offs like Doug Jones, probably a decade at least. The Dems would need to come out of this with 53 seats to not need to depend on Tester, Brown, and Manchin defying gravity for yet another cycle in 2024. Given that it's turning into a more regular midterm cycle where the out-party has the hate advantage and the kids won't vote, that's off the table.

The numbers on voters under 50 is just horrible and gets worse with each younger demographic idk how accurate this is or how concerned we should be maybe the younger people are waiting until Tuesday? That’s what I’m doing maybe others are doing the same? 🤷‍♀️☹️

(I see sponges posted the graphic already)

BA85AD1C-AFC6-4889-839D-DACEA975FD01.jpeg

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personal anecdote from the other day (a conversation between my coworker and her 19 y/o brother in the Bronx):

brother: hey um... so is there an election happening?

coworker: ...yeah, the federal midterms/statewide races. why...? you said you didn't want to register to vote.

brother: my civics professor said he'd give us extra credit if we vote

coworker: well the deadline to vote already passed, you're outta luck

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2 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

personal anecdote from the other day (a conversation between my coworker and her 19 y/o brother in the Bronx):

brother: hey um... so is there an election happening?

coworker: ...yeah, the federal midterms/statewide races. why...? you said you didn't want to register to vote.

brother: my civics professor said he'd give us extra credit if we vote

coworker: well the deadline to vote already passed, you're outta luck

Womp womp 🤦‍♀️
 

why can’t we register and vote on Election Day?  Why isn’t that a thing?  If someone brings a birth certificate or some other proof of eligibility, proof of address and any ID with a photo, why can’t they be allowed to vote?  It’s bullshit ridiculous that we don’t allow this

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4 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

why can’t we register and vote on Election Day?  Why isn’t that a thing?  If someone brings a birth certificate or some other proof of eligibility, proof of address and any ID with a photo, why can’t they be allowed to vote?  It’s bullshit ridiculous that we don’t allow this

There was a ballot proposition to amend the NYS constitution (which prohibits registration within ten days of an election) that lost last year, because it was an odd-year election, Republicans invested heavily in opposing all the proposed election reforms, and Democrats did absolutely nothing. It cost them that, it cost them no-excuse absentee balloting, and it cost them redistricting.

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43 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

There was a ballot proposition to amend the NYS constitution (which prohibits registration within ten days of an election) that lost last year, because it was an odd-year election, Republicans invested heavily in opposing all the proposed election reforms, and Democrats did absolutely nothing. It cost them that, it cost them no-excuse absentee balloting, and it cost them redistricting.

I remember that I took a look time in the voting booth carefully reading everything pretty sure I voted yes on most everything that was proposed 

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I remember not understanding the redistricting question so I just voted “yes” hoping any redistricting would be done fairly and responsibly I voted “yes” on all of it. Idgaf if civil courts have a higher cap and who doesn’t want clean water and easy voting abilities? 

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The court thing was a simple reform that unfortunately had to go through the process. The environmental one, they tried to oppose it due to the fear of regulations/litigation, but it won because it was so simple. The two voting ones were also simple, but only the opposition was engaged. The redistricting one - I voted against it because philosophically I don't think you fix a bogus, built-to-fail redistricting commission by making it easier for Dems to sideline it. You fix it by fixing it. But then the Dem maps all got thrown out because they had to sideline it regardless. The ghosts of Dean Skelos and Andrew Cuomo live on, even though neither are technically dead yet. 

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Honest question: I early voted earlier, one of the pages on the digital ballot had a space to select "For" on all unopposed candidates, but didn't actually show the names of them. Is that weird?

(I'm almost certain nobody higher than...maybe county level that I voted for is winning here btw :| )

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Just got done dropping my ballot off. Fully expect Polis to win in a cakewalk. Hes pretty popular, and even got me voting for him. We had a ton of ballot issues this year as well. The interesting ones were to legalize "magic mushrooms" for therapy use. Really hoping that one passes. Same with take-out and delivery alcohol. Polis temporarily allowed this during the pandemic, now we can vote on making it permanent.

There were some other issues as well for local stuff, but nothing major. My county may allow for MJ sales if it passes. I voted for it, but if it doesnt it doesnt really matter. We are literally surrounded by counties who allow for MJ sales, so its a 5 minute drive if I want to grab some.

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So were a little more than 48 hours out now, so Ill put in my predictions. I dont think anything major can change this between now and Tuesday, and no polling should radically swing the numbers here. First the House, then Ill jump into the other races.

For the House, the GOP have it. They dont need a lot of pickups to take it, and all polling and early voting signs show the GOP should have a good night. With where they sit right now, anything less than a 20 seat pickup would be a disappointment. That should be the floor for the GOP on Tuesday. I figure they will wind up with anywhere from 21-40 additional seats. If they win more than 40 additional races then they had a huge night and its clear we are in "Red Wave" territory that will extend to a whole lot of other races as well. Democrats are spending money playing defense in races where Biden had a 10 point or more victory just 2 years ago. So theres a real chance that if things start to go south for Dems on Tuesday, that they go very south. Any race that is a D+5 or less is probably flipping. The real question is what happens at the D+10 seats.

For the Senate, its a total guessing game. RCP currently has the GOP picking up 4 additional seats to get to a 54-46 advantage. Im not sure I buy that one only because the GOP nominated some truly horrible candidates.

Non-Competative Races: FL, OH, NC, CO. These were all seats that at one point in this election cycle people thought may be competitive. They arent. These races are done and wont flip at all.

Georgia - Ive said all along that Walker will win, and I see no reason to change now. He has the lead in polling down the stretch and the national atmosphere benefits him. Hes also going to get pulled across the finish line by Kemp as he embarrasses Abrams in the Governors race. I dont think he gets to 50% though, so he will have to get his win in a December Runoff.

PA - Prior to his stroke Fetterman was the single strongest Democrat in this entire election cycle. Now? Not so much. Its clear that Oz has closed the ground on him since his stroke. I still think Fetterman wins, but it will be much closer than it otherwise would have been. If there truly is a Red Wave then Oz probably finds a way to win, but it will be super close. Im still sticking with my prediction of Fetterman winning this one.

Arizona - I still have a hard time thinking the GOP win here, but they probably will. Lake is a painfully horrible candidate and full blown wacko, but shes also  aided by running against the worst Democrat in this cycle. Lake wins the Govenors race, and the Senate is a coin flip. This is a tough one only because with Lake carrying the top of the ticket it will be very hard for Kelly to win. It would take an insane amount of vote splitting, and thats just not something we usually see. For the same reason I think GA flips I will say AZ does a well. A very bad candidate aided by the national atmosphere and a more popular figure at the top of the ticket.

Nevada - this ones the easiest flip to call. Democrats have royally flubbed Nevada this cycle and the GOP is going to make them pay. GOP sweep both the Senate and Governors races in Nevada this year. Laxalt has leads outside of the margins of error in recent polls, so it would take a truly remarkable failure in polling for him to lose now.

That puts my prediction at a 51-49 GOP advantage in the Senate. So this could easily wind up being another 50-50 split, or it could flip into much bigger GOP gains depending on how it goes. Democrats best hope is a 51-49 win, but more realistically their goal is 50-50 with how things are.

Theres two wildcards though, NY and NH. If there is a true Red Wave then it will show early in these two states. If the GOP somehow wins either the Senate race in NH, or the Gov race in NY, then they are going to run the table everywhere else. The GOP wont win in NH and then lose in the rest of these tossups. The only way the GOP pull off NH is if the national atmosphere is just so toxic for Democrats that any race that isnt a D+5 is going to flip to the GOP on Tuesday. If either of these happens then that also means the GOP are going to have a huge night in the House.

The TL:DR is that the GOP are going to win on Tuesday, its just really a question of by how much.

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Just now, Insipid said:

Irrelevant, but I have covid again (almost recovered now), just like during the 2020 election. Well, maybe I really shouldn't vote after all. 🙃

I would look into some form of absentee ballot. In any case, feel better.

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