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2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences


NewBluntsworth

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Just now, tsar4 said:

Gen. Jack D. Ripper's doodles

image.png.3622ca8afab5b0f6a1ca9e85fd1fbaaf.png

I think you might be overestimating, either my intelligence or knowledge of culture because I feel no more informed now than when I read the initial caption in the first place. 

(I’m having one of my amazing brain farts)

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2 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

I think you might be overestimating, either my intelligence or knowledge of culture because I feel no more informed now than when I read the initial caption in the first place. 

(I’m having one of my amazing brain farts)

 Ripper tries to justify his actions for starting a war and claims his actions will forestall the Soviet plot to fluoridate US drinking water.

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3 minutes ago, matrixman124 said:

Euthanizing Raccoon and Squirrel unacceptable 

having underage topless girls sitting on your lap, win the presidency 

you know I’m pretty happy I don’t shill for a guy who would turn a blind eye to such depraved actions 

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27 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

I think you might be overestimating, either my intelligence or knowledge of culture because I feel no more informed now than when I read the initial caption in the first place. 

(I’m having one of my amazing brain farts)

I’m with you.  I know Strnangelove is brilliant satire, but it’s still too heavy handed for me.

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39 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

Ah, got it. Finally. Sorry 
image.png.f7b696fe06403c2438660fd53a949979.png

HEY!

That paste was surprisingly delish. It had a sort of weird mint after taste that I still have a taste memory of.

They changed the formula. But I think it still crusts on clothing like the worst case of snots ever.

And this has been your moment of 'Why Does katt Know This Horrible Sh*t'. We now return you to your regular scheduled discussion of 'Why Does Everything Dumpster Touch Smell Like Sh*t'. 

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1 hour ago, mthor said:

Don't get me started.

(Technically, I'm actually somewhere on the cusp of Gertrude and Susan.)

It's the perfect time to get into it, considering one side's attitude toward non-European immigrants.

 

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7 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Guess when you get down to it some people are totally OK with the government spending time and resources to kill a squirrel that was an overall force for joy and good in this world, and some people aren't.

Im pretty happy knowing I dont side with this kind of depraved action by the government. Says a whole lot about someone if your OK with this kind of thing.

...You side with the people that will cram a roadkill bear into their car, leave it for the evening, and dump it in central park. Or cut the head off a whale.

Get all the fuckin way out of here with this bullshit.

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The biggest shame here is just how much the whole event was politicized.

Which... frankly seems too suspicious. At first, it sounded exactly like a case of "my son got lost in a hot air balloon," so, imagine my surprise when I find it's been validated. Still feels like it leaves questions. Something like this doesn't just blow up. Did they snitch on themselves to spin up some attention? Was snitch just preparing to manufacture some outrage? A long term plan?

I mean, honestly, if this were politically flipped, there'd be a hundred "false flag" accusations by now. Convenient how quickly they'll believe something if they think it benefits them.

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2 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

I'm sure it all played out legit, just not sure how it warped into presidential discourse

The fact that it did just smacks of either subterfuge or desperation.

And.. I can't really wrap my head around being that desperate for a news angle.

Somebody, somewhere in the great Machine, looked at this happening, and, at this point in the election cycle, determined it needed national attention?

It's just... MD on a national scale. Willing to look like complete fools because somehow that owns the libs..

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13 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

 

 

This may wind up being a gift to the GOP on the even of the election. First off, fuck the government for doing this. Peanut was harmless, and was actually a great outlet to help raise money to rescue other animals. This whole "rabies" crap is just that, total crap.

It also shows exactly how dangerous the government truly is. At the swipe of a pen some bureaucrat decided that a squirrel needed to be sized and killed. Cops raided the guys house and sized Peanut, and his buddy Fred.

Fight crime? Nah. Deal with Drugs? Nah. Some guy has a squirrel and raccoon and uses their antics to help raise money for animal rescue? Absolutely unforgivable, send in the stasi.

There is a lot of talk about Third Rails in politics, and animals are quite likely the single biggest third rail we have. People argue over all sorts of different positions, including on third rail issues like social security, healthcare, and government benefits. But absolutely everyone agrees, do not fuck with animals.

There truly is a lot of fury online right now over this. Its amazing how quickly this has spread, and just how truly pissed off people are.

Trump is already campaigning on this issue, and so are other Republicans.

Musks timeline is also full of this, which means that nearly every X user in America is currently being exposed to this story.

 

......So

 

This is why GOP leaders are blocking Pornhub in their States

 

It all makes sense now. If their constitutes can't beat their meat or flick their bean in anger at the devil's movies, they knew all that rage would redirected at the government euthanizing a squirrel (that was not vaccinated for rabies) for biting someone

 

 

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23 minutes ago, rpgamer said:

I can't really wrap my head around being that desperate for a news angle.

lol did you see that seltzer poll, or maybe the nazi rally?

I think the odds are better than not that the bottom has completely dropped out from under their campaign 

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5 minutes ago, Jman said:

It’s being heavily artificially boosted by Elon and his troll farm, but the fucking squirrel had rabies.  

My squirrel body my squirrel choice! Oh wait…the squirrel was a woman?
 

She dies.

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11 minutes ago, Seight said:

I'm losing track of how many "HEARTBREAKING: THE WORST PERSON YOU KNOW MAKES A GOOD POINT" moments we've had at this point.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/mcconnell-trump-gop-new-book/index.html

The GOP is too comically evil for Mitch McConnell.

"Ugh, the politics I caused are so disgusting I need a nice warm bath in my favorite brand of virgin blood!"

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10 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

I'm sure it all played out legit, just not sure how it warped into presidential discourse

Two words - 'eating pets'. 

Since that angle was shot down by even the republicans of the state, they have to scramble for a new pet story to pretend to care about.

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12 hours ago, katt_goddess said:

HEY!

That paste was surprisingly delish. It had a sort of weird mint after taste that I still have a taste memory of.

They changed the formula. But I think it still crusts on clothing like the worst case of snots ever.

And this has been your moment of 'Why Does katt Know This Horrible Sh*t'. We now return you to your regular scheduled discussion of 'Why Does Everything Dumpster Touch Smell Like Sh*t'. 

I still win because that there pic of Ralph was supposed to actually be a gif. You might know what paste actually tastes like but I, apparently, kept on eating it to this very day 😆🫠😆

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2 hours ago, 1pooh4u said:

I still win because that there pic of Ralph was supposed to actually be a gif. You might know what paste actually tastes like but I, apparently, kept on eating it to this very day 😆🫠😆

We were supposed to stop?

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Alrighty, 2 days to go which means its time to put in final predictions for where things go.

 

Lets start with the easier races, the Senate. Its currently a 51-49 Democratic Senate. Democrats are playing defense across the board with the majority of likely flip seats currently being held by Democrats. CNN has a list of the top 10 most likely seats to flip, and the top 8 are all Democrats.

The two most likely to flip are WV and MT. Those seem like pretty sure bets at this point, which means the GOP likely has a floor of 51 Senators next year. Florida isnt in play, and as much as Democrats want to think Texas is in play there just isnt evidence of that. Its Lucy and the football every election down there, and theres no reason to think that wont be the case this year. No poll has Cruz with a lead below the MoE, which means it would take a truly historic polling failure for Cruz to lose his seat.

Beyond those seats, OH, PA, WI, MI, NV, and AZ are all in play.

In Arizona, Democrats are probably going to win that seat. Its an odd case where vote splitting sure looks to be the norm. Lake is an absolutely horrible candidate, and shes going to cost the GOP what should be an easy pickup. Theres 1 poll right now showing Lake winning, and Im going to go ahead and say thats an outlier. Gallego should win this one pretty easily.

Nevada might be the best next chance at a GOP pickup, and for them not to it would require a lot of vote splitting. Early voting in NV is showing the GOP with a very clear advantage at the top of the ticket. Will it carry to the Senate? My guess is no, theres going to be enough vote splitting to save the Democrats here. Democrat hold.

Ohio is another high chance GOP pickup, this one Im going to say there wont be enough vote splitting to save Brown. Trump is going to win Ohio easily, and its going to carry Moreno in a squeaker. 52-48 GOP.

That's it though, there wont be any other flips. The only way that we see more flips is if either A. Harris is somehow going to have a historic blowout election (extremely unlikely) or B. Trump carries the entire Blue Wall and brings the GOP Senators with him (also unlikely).

Nebraska 1 is suddenly making noise, but I think thats all it is. Noise. GOP going to hold that. So my prediction is a 52-48 GOP Senate. With the map the way it is, that should be considered a W for Democrats. If there is some, so far, unseen GOP wave that carries Senators as well then the Democrats are looking at a total wipe out and a sudden GOP majority of 56-44, or worse. So a 3 seat loss in this map is absolutely a win for Democrats.

 

Now the House. This one hasnt gotten as much attention because it generally follows the top of the ticket. The easy thing to do is say that whoever wins the top of the ticket win the House. And thats exactly what Im going to do. Theres a chance for a surprise here where the GOP could win the House while losing the White House. The reason for that is actually in NY. After the last redistricting cycle the GOP made huge gains in NY, and thats what actually gave them the House in the last election. Sounds like the GOP are turning out in droves in these districts, so theres an outside chance that the GOP can hold the House even if they lose the WH. That said, Im sticking with the person who wins at the top wins the House. Whoever does win will likely have a very slim majority though.

 

Now for the big one, the White House.  All accounts say this should be an extremely close race. Both parties are putting out stuff saying that they are running better than ever before and their party is going to win, and win big. If you are in a liberal bubble you expect Harris to run away with it early, and the GOP bubble is saying that the only way for Harris to win is to cheat.

That's extremely unlikely though. All accounts say this is going to be close, like down to a few thousand votes close. Out of all the likely scenarios, the most unlikely ones are where either party runs away with this thing in a huge EC victory. Polling is extremely close, and all the experts are saying this is going to be a squeaker right down to the end. Im also going to say that the pollsters have gotten much better at finding those "shy" voters so these numbers will be far more accurate than they have been in the past. If they arent, then it will likely favor Trump. The NYT pointed this out today saying they still cant figure out how to correctly poll Trump voters, so who knows. Anyways, lets look at some states.

Trump is going to carry NC, GA, and AZ. Hes polling well there, and all accounts are that the GOP are performing very well in the early vote. These states arent going to provide a surprise. Theres been a lot of talk about Georgia, but thats all its going to wind up being in the end, Talk. Harris isnt bringing the enthusiasm needed to carry the state, and a lot of evidence that women, particularly black women, are voting at lower rates in 2024 than they did in 2020.

Current tally - Trump 262 Harris 211.

Nevada looks like its going to go to the GOP. There is crazy enthusiasm out there for GOP voters, and they are running so far ahead of where they have historically been that its looking good for the GOP. Some initial reporting is saying that this is actually a bit of a California effect. A ton of Republican voters have fled California, and a lot of them wound up going to Nevada. That might be enough to flip the state to the GOP, and thats what Im going to say is happening. Trump flips NV. 268-211 Trump.

Theres a total outlier in Iowa out this week, but thats all it is. Huge outlier. This pollster did the same thing before where suddenly the Democrats had a huge lead leading up to the election only for Trump to win it easy.

New Hampshire. Suddenly thats "in play", but I kinda doubt it. The only way it is in play is if there's some sort of Trump blowout coming, and I just dont see it. If they cant call NH early though then thats probably a sign that Trump is doing better than expected. An early call means status-quo and good news for Harris. Harris hold NH 268-215 Trump.

Nebraska 2 - Currently listed as a Toss Up, but its leaning pretty hard Harris. Im going to say she wins NE 2. 268-215 Harris.

Now it gets interesting, the Blue Wall. MN, WI, MI, and PA are all at play, and all are within the MOE according to polls. Trump is up in the RCP average in PA, and Harris leads in all the others. If that holds then Trump wins 287-251. Thats not what Im going to call though.

All the evidence is pointing to a Trump win up here. The economic indicators, inflation, right track/wrong track, enthusiasm, favorability ratings, top issues to voters, and who is leading all of those top issues. All of it favors Trump. There also are the "silent Trump" voters that dont show in the polls and lead to Trump usually running 3-5 points ahead of the polls. This screams 2016 all over again so Trump should win these states.

But he wont.

There are a ton of AWFLs out there who as cosplaying the Handmaids Tail, and the Democratic propaganda has been masterful at making Trump seem like Hitler. The propaganda arm of the Democrats, the media, have echoed these idiotic claims, but they will do the job and carry an extremely weak candidate across the finish line. Harris is going to win all of these states, and win the WH 270-268. Theres a chance that she might win another state somewhere, but its not super likely. Her cap is probably in the 290 EC range, same as Trumps. I put money on Harris on Kalshi, and Im likely going to win some decent money off that bet. Tried to do the same on Robinhood when they opened that up, but I cant get it to work. Oh well, Ill stick with my Kalshi winnings and be happy with them.

So my final predictions are:

Senate: 52-48 GOP Advantage

House: Democrat win with a slim majority

White House: Harris over Trump 270-268

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2 hours ago, Dark_Cloud_Overhead said:

They're fine with making sure mass murderers have the freedom to be as heavily armed as possible, and are all for making videos to show how much they personally love their guns and to go hunting, but yeah somehow they're all broken up about a squirrel. I mean... I just have no more words.

Republicans are mad it was euthanized before they had the chance to torture it.

Edited by naraku360
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