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2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences

NewBluntsworth

By NewBluntsworth
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Belize Aristocrat

Belize

Posted
Posted (edited)

In the Pennsylvania early vote, you can use TargetSmart (a firm the Democratic Party uses to track votes on a daily basis so they have intel for GOTV efforts) to get a sense of the modeled partisan vote. Right now the early vote is:

  • Democratic 65%
  • Republican 32%
  • Unaffiliated 3%

This represents about 21% of the expected total vote.

 

Trump can whack away at our 32-point lead on election day with 21% of the vote in, but Dems are going to keep trying to build it up even more. 

 

 

Edited by Belize
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Raptorpat
Raptorpat

https://x.com/selina_dedalus/status/1817624852276424868

little_girl_lost
little_girl_lost

Trump made his choice, he should have to carry jd vance to term.

GuyBeardmane
GuyBeardmane

Happy to see those two got out to cast their vote.

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Master-Debater131 Hero

Master-Debater131

Posted
Posted
On 10/22/2024 at 7:58 AM, Master-Debater131 said:

Actions speak louder than words, or in politics actions speak louder than polls. There is more evidence that the top of the ticket is starting to impact down-ballot races in the swing states. Normally when running ads you embrace the candidate at the top of your ticket and say you will support them. Something else is starting to happen though.

In these tough swing states Democrat candidates are now running ads touting how they have worked, and supported, Trump and Trumps policies. You don't do that if you think your candidate is pulling away in the race. Candidates are seeing something in their internal polls that has them worried that Harris will pull them down and cost their own seats.

Republican candidates tried the same thing during the 2018 mid-terms and 2020 nationals when Biden was on the ticket. They knew that the top of the ticket was an anchor so they tried to abandon ship. It didnt work for them. It might work for Democrats in some of these swing states, but it also could mean there is a true cascade happening that gives the GOP more wins than expected.

Theres going to be a surprise somewhere in here on election day, its just a question of where.

Just gonna keep this rolling with this new article from the WSJ:

Expect the GOP to Win Big in the Senate

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/expect-the-gop-to-win-big-in-the-senate-secret-weapon-trump-voters-election-578d3764?st=QNnuMm

"Two Democratic senators up for election touted their links to Donald Trump last week. Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey released an ad declaring he had “sided with Trump” on trade and tariffs, while an ad from Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin boasted that she “got President Trump to back her Made in America bill.”

One conclusion from these ads is that Mr. Trump is in the ascendancy in these states. He might be. But the ads also speak to a hidden dynamic that may hand the Senate to the GOP. Candidates in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are fighting for the support of undecided voters. These voters tend to account for between 5% and 10% of states’ electorates, enough to sway the result of a close race. These crucial voters look a lot more like Mr. Trump’s supporters than Kamala Harris’s.

According to our latest Pennsylvania poll, 51% of undecided Senate voters intend to vote for Mr. Trump, compared with 23% for Ms. Harris. This pattern replicates itself across our internal research. In Ohio, 78% of undecided voters in the Senate race would opt for Mr. Trump, in Montana 59%, and in Arizona 77%. Overall, twice as many undecided voters in Senate races back Mr. Trump over Ms. Harris."

WSJ polling is picking up on the same trend that other polls are showing. There is a preference cascade building, and that preference is for Trump. The late breaking deciders are siding with Trump. Its not unusual for the out of power party to pick up these late breakers, so this is pretty normal.

The top of the ticket learners are now building coattails where people will vote straight party line. Trump is gaining, if not outright leading, at the top of the ticket and thats likely going to translate into more GOP pickups in the Senate than we might think.

 

The Senate is the easiest thing to call right now, and its absolutely going to flip to the GOP.

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Jman Super Hero

Jman

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Posted (edited)

https://www.newsweek.com/michigan-republican-endorses-harris-calls-trump-totally-unhinged-1974077
 

More current Republicans are endorsing Harris, much to Lindsey Graham’s consternation and his tongue being tired from all the bootlicking.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4947150-texas-early-voting-turnout-record/amp/

The polarized nature of the political block has resulted in record turnout in Texas, traditionally a very low turnout state (2020 saw 51% of eligible voters stay home).

 

Edited by Jman
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Blackrose321 Gentry

Blackrose321

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Posted
15 hours ago, 1pooh4u said:

Which positions did she go against that were so insanely popular that Trump would have or did implement?

ok, yeah there was some level of hubris by not going to Wisconsin or WTH she didn’t go, but how was that worse than grabbing women by the pussy? Worse than not paying vendors and contractors?  Worse than demanding the death of 5 innocent kids in NYC? 

I seem to remember her being lambasted for her previous stance on gay marriage. It was seen as "flip flopping" or chasing the most popular policy rather than a potential genuine change. Bernie, by comparison, has always been a left-leaning hell raiser so her history, while just as qualified, if not more so, was also more "establishment". Trump and Bernie were political outsiders for different reasons, and 2016 was really all about the outsiders and pushing envelopes. So even by the time Clinton was the nominee, there was still frustration over the matchup of Clinton vs. Bernie because Bernie vs. Trump polled better than Clinton vs. Trump. No one was really paying much attention to Trump, let alone comparing Clinton's potential policies to his.

Trump got a freebie, and it's why he and his followers are so lazy even now. They've never had to work for it.

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Blackrose321 Gentry

Blackrose321

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Just gonna keep this rolling with this new article from the WSJ:

Expect the GOP to Win Big in the Senate

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/expect-the-gop-to-win-big-in-the-senate-secret-weapon-trump-voters-election-578d3764?st=QNnuMm

"Two Democratic senators up for election touted their links to Donald Trump last week. Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey released an ad declaring he had “sided with Trump” on trade and tariffs, while an ad from Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin boasted that she “got President Trump to back her Made in America bill.”

One conclusion from these ads is that Mr. Trump is in the ascendancy in these states. He might be. But the ads also speak to a hidden dynamic that may hand the Senate to the GOP. Candidates in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are fighting for the support of undecided voters. These voters tend to account for between 5% and 10% of states’ electorates, enough to sway the result of a close race. These crucial voters look a lot more like Mr. Trump’s supporters than Kamala Harris’s.

According to our latest Pennsylvania poll, 51% of undecided Senate voters intend to vote for Mr. Trump, compared with 23% for Ms. Harris. This pattern replicates itself across our internal research. In Ohio, 78% of undecided voters in the Senate race would opt for Mr. Trump, in Montana 59%, and in Arizona 77%. Overall, twice as many undecided voters in Senate races back Mr. Trump over Ms. Harris."

WSJ polling is picking up on the same trend that other polls are showing. There is a preference cascade building, and that preference is for Trump. The late breaking deciders are siding with Trump. Its not unusual for the out of power party to pick up these late breakers, so this is pretty normal.

The top of the ticket learners are now building coattails where people will vote straight party line. Trump is gaining, if not outright leading, at the top of the ticket and thats likely going to translate into more GOP pickups in the Senate than we might think.

 

The Senate is the easiest thing to call right now, and its absolutely going to flip to the GOP.

If I write my own opinion piece will you share that here as well?

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Jman Super Hero

Jman

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

The way they had the music line up with it was just hilarious.

That entire season was fantastic. The Skankhunt story line was just so well done, with so many perfect jokes.

It’s a shame it was so mentally exhausting for Matt and Trey.  It’s probably why they switched over to the Tegridy farms stuff.

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Master-Debater131 Hero

Master-Debater131

Posted
Posted
Just now, Jman said:

It’s a shame it was so mentally exhausting for Matt and Trey.  It’s probably why they switched over to the Tegridy farms stuff.

It would make sense.  I really enjoyed the Tegridy farm stuff. People from CO saw so many stupid references in the different episodes, and some of the underlying stuff was pretty locally relevant. It wasnt as good as Skankhunt, but Randy is a fantastic character to center on for a bit. Just dumb stuff thats slapstick comedy.

 

And then the Japanese Toilet episode......pure gold.

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Master-Debater131 Hero

Master-Debater131

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Posted
8 minutes ago, naraku360 said:

This source looks sketchy.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-growing-gender-gap-among-young-people/

 

Heres another one. Democrats losing ground with men is a well documented phenomenon that has been a topic of discussion for years. Men, particularly younger working men, are leaving the Democratic party. 

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André Toulon Monster Mutant

André Toulon

Posted
Posted (edited)

MD: These womenfolk aren't going to have dick in their life if they don't want to date Republican men because this post from today alluding to an article link from when Biden was still the presidential candidate says so.

I'm convinced she's not reading any of this shit 

Fun fact, I too left the Democrats...as you all know because of another tryhard similar to MD....But I didn't join the Republicans....How, 😱

Edited by André Toulon
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scoobdog Monster Mutant

scoobdog

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2 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Thats a fun stat to overlay with this one

 

 

Going to be a whooollleeeee lot of unhappy single people if they cant accept people having different views than themselves.

A lot of unhappy single dudes, you mean.  I think it's safe to say single women are more likely to happily choose being single over having a partner that's trash.

And, yes, all people who vote for Trump are trash, regardless of the stupid excuse they come up with.

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Belize Aristocrat

Belize

Posted
Posted

The main Democratic super PAC, Priorities USA, thinks Georgia is going to be decided by ~1,000 votes either way. It's contained in a slide from a recent private presentation that is now on social media.

 

If you know anyone in Georgia who might vote, it's a good idea to pressure them. 

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katt_goddess Monster Mutant

katt_goddess

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Thats a fun stat to overlay with this one

 

 

Going to be a whooollleeeee lot of unhappy single people if they cant accept people having different views than themselves.

 

 

No one should be forced to deal with someone who thinks it's 100% okay that rapists should be the ones to choose the mother of their kid.

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Insipid Legend

Insipid

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Posted

The growing divide between men and women is a legitimate issue Pat and I brought up earlier in this thread. This is gonna cause the birth rate to plummet. Unlike conservatives who just look to the past with rose tinted glasses, I think population decline will ultimately be a good thing for humanity and the planet as a whole.

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Jman Super Hero

Jman

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Insipid said:

The growing divide between men and women is a legitimate issue Pat and I brought up earlier in this thread. This is gonna cause the birth rate to plummet. Unlike conservatives who just look to the past with rose tinted glasses, I think population decline will ultimately be a good thing for humanity and the planet as a whole.

The American Lysistrata.

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Raptorpat Monster Mutant

Raptorpat

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Posted
24 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

Omg

More voter disenfranchisement hopefully this gets overturned because the ballots are post marked on Election Day. Fuckin nonsense 

IMG_6818.thumb.jpeg.6694119800ff25d42879a3479c71cc95.jpeg

A chance to see if scotus actually believes in the Purcell principle (that federal courts can't state election rules at the last minute).

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1pooh4u Monster Mutant

1pooh4u

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

A chance to see if scotus actually believes in the Purcell principle (that federal courts can't state election rules at the last minute).

Only if they think Trump will be harmed by this. 
 

This must impact democrats more otherwise the 5th circuit would have ruled the other way

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discolé monade Monster Mutant

discolé monade

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Belize said:

The main Democratic super PAC, Priorities USA, thinks Georgia is going to be decided by ~1,000 votes either way. It's contained in a slide from a recent private presentation that is now on social media.

 

If you know anyone in Georgia who might vote, it's a good idea to pressure them. 

taking my daughter monday. 

 but i'm afraid, in this area, trump may pull it out.** win thisthere's not enough dems here. what we do have is a stacked elections board, complete with at least one heritage foundation member (of upper echelon in this area-secretary i think) 

**really REALLY bad word formation. but it has to stay. because reasons. 

Edited by discolé monade
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discolé monade Monster Mutant

discolé monade

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9 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-growing-gender-gap-among-young-people/

 

Heres another one. Democrats losing ground with men is a well documented phenomenon that has been a topic of discussion for years. Men, particularly younger working men, are leaving the Democratic party. 

giphy.gif lol poor thing. 

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matrixman124 Icon

matrixman124

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-growing-gender-gap-among-young-people/

 

Heres another one. Democrats losing ground with men is a well documented phenomenon that has been a topic of discussion for years. Men, particularly younger working men, are leaving the Democratic party. 

Men are privileged dipshits that are crying that they aren't getting everything that our toxic masculinity infested culture promised them. Trump promises them that and they listen intently and excitedly.

This is the path to how women legally become a man's property again.

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