2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences

[katt_goddess]

There is always going to be someone who will intentionally vote for the worst things purely to watch shit happen in real time. It's their idea of making a difference by voting for the known dumpster fire and then watching the flames take on a life of their own while patting themselves on the back saying 'I did this!' 

[Raptorpat]

It's going to slip under the radar due to the Trump stuff today, but earthquake news from Wisconsin:

https://twitter.com/SplitTicket_/status/1643428667983556608

If they follow in the reverse footsteps of NC, where the Republicans flipped the court and immediately reversed all of its recent rulings including on gerrymandering, the new Wisconsin court will probably do the opposite and force competitive maps there for the first time in eternity. Maybe a Michigan part 2?

 

UPDATE:

The GOP appears to have held onto an open Senate seat to restore their supermajority, and they've already bounced around the idea of impeaching Protasiewicz to prevent her so the fireworks may not be over yet.

https://twitter.com/SplitTicket_/status/1643444263525711872

 

UPDATE x2:

Apparently impeachment doesn't apply to judges, which has a separate removal process that requires supermajorities in both houses (which WI GOP don't have).

https://twitter.com/IanJJamison/status/1643446995619545097

Edited April 5, 2023 by Raptorpat

[Raptorpat]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1644404121267580929

[Icarus27k]

I don't know how a three-way race will work out for Sinema, but I'm ready to gamble over it (I want the Dem to win), just to get rid of her. 

Edited April 7, 2023 by Icarus27k

[Raptorpat]

Seems like a worthwhile bet if she's targeting soft Republicans and independents instead of Democrats.

[Icarus27k]

Sinema is bad.

 

Manchin is too, but I begrudgingly respect him for what he did last year with the Inflation Reduction Act, where he convinced the Republicans he was NOT going to support it so they would give up on obstructing it. But then turned around and DID support it and said, "Technically, I never actually said I wouldn't support it; you Republicans just assumed that." 

[scoobdog]

Sinema is probably done if that's the route she wants to take.  I mean, hunting unicorns is usually something a girl gives up before she turns 12.

[naraku360]

On 4/7/2023 at 12:08 PM, Raptorpat said:

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1644404121267580929

Shitshows gonna show their shit.

[Master-Debater131]

On 4/7/2023 at 1:42 PM, Raptorpat said:

Seems like a worthwhile bet if she's targeting soft Republicans and independents instead of Democrats.

Its a smart move. If Dems go hard left and GOP goes hard Right then there is a very visible path as a centrist for her to take. A lot depends on who get nominated, but she is making a smart bet here. Its easy to see both parties nominating some complete wackos that alienate a significant enough number of people for her to win.

[Raptorpat]

I mean, it's her best bet but it's still an awful bet to have to make. I don't think the Dems are going hard left, Ruben Gallego just seems regular left to me and the state is trending that way anyways.

Given most Dem leaning voters hate her and most Republican leaning voters wouldn't vote her over an actual registered Republican, I wouldn't bet any money on it.

[stilgar]

5 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Its a smart move. If Dems go hard left and GOP goes hard Right then there is a very visible path as a centrist for her to take. A lot depends on who get nominated, but she is making a smart bet here. Its easy to see both parties nominating some complete wackos that alienate a significant enough number of people for her to win.

In what world have dems gone hard left?

[Icarus27k]

Me in 2016:

If Trump loses this year, it'll be a one election loss for Republicans. But if Trump wins this year (he's totally NOT going to, I mean c'mon), Republicans will have lost several future election cycles. They may never recover. 

 

Republicans have lost 2018, 2020, 2022 and it looks like 2024 with Trump's meddling. 

[Icarus27k]

An anti-DeSantis ad from the Trump campaign. 

I'm fine with Trump destroying DeSantis. Trump is doing Democrats' work for them. 

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1646855386773831680

Edited April 14, 2023 by Icarus27k

[scoobdog]

1 hour ago, Icarus27k said:

An anti-DeSantis ad from the Trump campaign. 

I'm fine with Trump destroying DeSantis. Trump is doing Democrats' work for them. 

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1646855386773831680

It seems DeSantis is doing a pretty good job of destroying his own chances without anyone’s help.  His infamous lack of charisma is starting to rear its ugly head now that his war on Disney hasn’t ended up burnishing his profile.

[Icarus27k]

(As a Democrat, I consider DeSantis to be the real threat of the two. I suppose if things get REALLY bad for Trump and Trump has destroyed DeSantis, Republican voters could look for a third option. But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, you know?) 

[Icarus27k]

After all these years, I am still giving Republicans a little credit in the sense I am expecting their pro-Trump fever to break when they realize it's going to destroy them. I'm preparing for them to suddenly turn on Trump and support someone else.

 

But maybe I'm wrong and they will unhesitatingly follow Trump over a cliff. In which case, that's that. 

[naraku360]

21 minutes ago, Icarus27k said:

After all these years, I am still giving Republicans a little credit in the sense I am expecting their pro-Trump fever to break when they realize it's going to destroy them. I'm preparing for them to suddenly turn on Trump and support someone else.

 

But maybe I'm wrong and they will unhesitatingly follow Trump over a cliff. In which case, that's that. 

I don't think their issue is that the establishment is in love with Trump.

It's that they brainwashed their base into worshipping the dumb pile of stupid. They tied themselves to him like he was the second coming of Reagan.

[Raptorpat]

I think that base is its own beast now. Like Trump isn't in control of it, they view him favorably but he's subject to its whims like the rest of the party.

The best example is right after he was elected. He was personally sympathetic to the dreamers and he very briefly tried to sell the idea to his crowds and got booed. His base put him in his place and so he shed his last remaining inkling of humanity and instead spent the next 3.95 years failing at using dreamers as a bargaining chip for his wall.

[scoobdog]

48 minutes ago, Icarus27k said:

(As a Democrat, I consider DeSantis to be the real threat of the two. I suppose if things get REALLY bad for Trump and Trump has destroyed DeSantis, Republican voters could look for a third option. But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, you know?) 

I did to, until he started doing some really stupid things (as opposed to just soulless and craven).  Whether or not you think Disney deserved to be fucked with, DeSantis was making a huge bet on this.  As soon as Disney fought back and neutered his power play, he was exposed in a really bad way.  If he continues to fight, he really will be an enemy of big business.  If he leaves it as it is now, he's (rightly) a target of criticism for his incompetence and resulting impotence.

Now, politicians flub things all the time, so it's not like this spat should be anything more than bump in the road... unless the car going over that bump is running on four flats.  DeSantis is well known for being cold and off putting to donors.  He never projects the charm or, alternatively, the confidence that donors expect out of their pet politicians, and it alienates him from the people he needs to rehabilitate or burnish his image.  That's a catastrophic flaw in any candidate, no matter how good they are.

[katt_goddess]

4 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

After all these years, I am still giving Republicans a little credit in the sense I am expecting their pro-Trump fever to break when they realize it's going to destroy them. I'm preparing for them to suddenly turn on Trump and support someone else.

 

But maybe I'm wrong and they will unhesitatingly follow Trump over a cliff. In which case, that's that. 

I don't remember if it was linked here or if I read it somewhere else but there are chunks crying about how if Drumpf doesn't win, they'll never vote again.

All I can say is that's like threatening to drop me off at a bookstore and handing me an unlimited gift card. I am being threatened with a good time. 

[Raptorpat]

https://twitter.com/mikepompeo/status/1647001366441897985

[Top Gun]

5 hours ago, katt_goddess said:

I don't remember if it was linked here or if I read it somewhere else but there are chunks crying about how if Drumpf doesn't win, they'll never vote again.

All I can say is that's like threatening to drop me off at a bookstore and handing me an unlimited gift card. I am being threatened with a good time. 

 

[SwimOdin]

20 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

https://twitter.com/mikepompeo/status/1647001366441897985

Such a shame

[Icarus27k]

 

Yikes. 

I don't expect DeSantis to ever be president. The whole thing Republicans have where they try to imitate Trump just makes them unelectable.

But at the same time, they need to imitate Trump to win primaries. 

 

[Icarus27k]

I wouldn't mind if Democrats did one of their "secretly support an unelectable Republican in a primary" thing here. The Pennsylvania Senate race, that is.

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by Icarus27k

[PenguinBoss]

Gotta love the use of "combat" when it comes to other people's right to vote.

[Raptorpat]

https://twitter.com/larryelder/status/1649213455310942209

🤷‍♂️

[Icarus27k]

Elder added, "but that leader won't be my unelectable self." 

[scoobdog]

3 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

Elder added, "but that leader won't be my unelectable self." 

Maybe he'll kidnap and replace Tim Scott.  Republicans would never know the difference.

[Seight]

5 hours ago, scoobdog said:

Maybe he'll kidnap and replace Tim Scott.  Republicans would never know the difference.

We would've also accepted "J.C. Watts".

[Master-Debater131]

So Biden officially announced his reelection bid today. In any normal world he wouldnt have done this. Hes underwater on virtually every major issue, a majority of Americans dont want him to run, huge numbers of his own party think hes too old, and he generally hasnt been very good.

But he still has a very real, if not likely, chance at winning because the GOP have become a death cult centered around Trump. Any halfway competent GOP candidate would wipe the floor with Biden. But thats not what the GOP appear ready to do. Trump looks likely to win the GOP primary again and then lose his 4th straight election. DeSantis would crush Biden if he got the opportunity. But nope, the GOP seem more willing to help elect Biden than to deviate from the Cult of Trump. It really is remarkable to look at.

[Raptorpat]

I saw a headline or something somewhere that said that people who are moderately disapproving of Biden are likelier to vote for him than generic R.

I don't recall if it was in totality or if it was independents, but regardless it paints the picture of "normal or crazy?"

[Master-Debater131]

1 minute ago, Raptorpat said:

I saw a headline or something somewhere that said that people who are moderately disapproving of Biden are likelier to vote for him than generic R.

I don't recall if it was in totality or if it was independents, but regardless it paints the picture of "normal or crazy?"

Thats the fundamental problem the GOP has while tied to Trump. They are the "crazy" party with him at the helm. If they nominated a normal candidate like DeSantis, or Scott, or even freaking Romney then they would lose a lot of that "crazy" image. But nahhhhh, lets keep MTG and Trump as the figureheads of the GOP. What could possibly go wrong?

[Raptorpat]

Desantis has gone full culture war and he's making a fool of himself, I genuinely don't think he's any greater a candidate than Trump.

I don't think there are going to be any Romney/McCain-type GOP candidates who downplay culture war stuff any time soon.

[Master-Debater131]

DeSantis going full culture war is really hurting him. He had built up enough goodwill with the GOP base and then he overplayed his hand.

He has time to correct, but Im not sure he will.

[Raptorpat]

Disney is on a mission to burn all that time, and Trump and everyone else have all piled on.

I speculate he'll never even declare his candidacy.

Edited April 25, 2023 by Raptorpat

[scoobdog]

42 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

I speculate he'll never even declare his candidacy.

A lot depends on his current foreign country sales pitch, but I wouldn't bet on that being a rousing success.   A failure abroad should be all he needs to throw it in,  pack up and go back to Tallahassee.

[Master-Debater131]

A lot also depends on what happens in Georgia. If Trump is indicted in GA then that could be the one to take him down. The NYC charges are broadly viewed as purely political in Conservative spaces. Charges in GA wouldnt have that same sort of thinking. There already is talk in Conservative circles that his support could drop if there are charges to a point where he would become vulnerable.

[Icarus27k]

In Biden vs. Trump, the state of Georgia will vote for Biden. My anecdotal evidence tells me people here gave up on Trump like one year into his presidency and have seen enough of that nonsense. 

 

Which would be the whole presidential election if Biden wins Georgia, in my opinion. 

[Neubauten]

27 minutes ago, Icarus27k said:

My anecdotal evidence tells me people here gave up on Trump like one year into his presidency and have seen enough of that nonsense. 

And yet, anecdotally, they feel any different about Biden?

[Icarus27k]

5 minutes ago, Neubauten said:

And yet, anecdotally, they feel any different about Biden?

Biden represents the average, competent president. The kind that is more likely than not to win reelection. Like how the three presidents before Trump won reelection. 

[Icarus27k]

Also, the 2022 midterm elections add an unusual perspective on Biden. Usually, presidents, even those who win reelection (Clinton, Obama), have REALLY BAD midterms before they are reelected. But Biden's midterm in 2022 wasn't that bad for him. 

 

That may be evidence that voters are being asked to decide between crazy and normal and then choosing normal. Perhaps if the circumstances were normal Dem Party vs normal GOP, Biden would have had a really bad 2022 midterm. If Trump sticks around, I don't see the dichotomy changing.

Edited April 25, 2023 by Icarus27k

[katt_goddess]

Once again, if you want to change the world right now, vote Democrat.

If you vote Dem and they suck, you'll be able to vote them out. But if you vote Rep, you are basically voting for political herpes because they won't leave once voted out. Hell, they don't want to leave if they never got in in the first place now [ see also Kari Puddle ]. 

[Raptorpat]

Justice going to announce against Manchin tonight, though he's got a primary on his hands.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/27/republicans-get-justice-in-west-virginia-senate-race-00094160

[Raptorpat]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1652105712212819968

[Icarus27k]

Regarding Biden in general, he has a stronger case for reelection than what many people seem to think and what his underwater job approval rating implies. Here's how Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg (one of the few people who was credited for getting the 2022 midterm right) puts it:

I'd add wage growth to this list. The average hourly wage has had a pretty steep rise over the past two years. Maybe the fastest two-year rise ever recorded. Anecdotally, I can vouch for this. I currently make twice as much as my pre-pandemic job. 

[Raptorpat]

https://twitter.com/ColinAllredTX/status/1653727403536183301?s=20

[Master-Debater131]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/30/politics/senate-race-rankings-may-elections/index.html

The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024

The Tl;dr is this

1. Manchin - D WV

2. Tester - D MT

3 Brown - D OH

4. Sinema - I AZ

5 Rosen - D NV

6. Baldwin - D WI

7. Stabenow (retiring) 0 D MI

8. Casey - D PA

9 Cruz - R TX

10 Cruz - R FL

 

Its not a bad list, but a few seats are out of order. The #1 spot should be Brown of OH. That seat is 100% going to flip to the GOP. Ohio is now a deep red state who will elect anyone with an R next to their name. They just elected JD Vance after he ran one of the worst campaigns possible, and he won fairly comfortably.

Texas and Florida can be removed from this list all together as well. Neither state are flipping Democrat in 2024, even if Trump is on the Ballot. I get they had to find the top 10, but those are very safe seats.

Tester might be able to be dropped lower as well. He has shown a remarkable ability to win in years when the GOP dominate. Some of that is luck with some bad GOP candidates, but he is resilient.

Manchin is a total enigma. He hasnt even said if he is going to run or not. He he has said he wants to return to being Governor of WV, and with his GOP challengers getting stronger by the day now would make sense for him to bail. But will he? Even if he doesnt I do think this is the year when he loses his Senate race. The GOP have brought in some very high caliber candidates who should be able to take him down in a state as red as WV.

NV, WI, and MI probably dont flip. PA is a maybe, but with Biden on the ticket probably not. PA likely stays Blue.

AZ is a total wildcard. Can Sinema pull it off? Theres already rumblings that local Democrats are worried that she can.

Its still super super early, and a lot will depend on candidates, but right now I would say its safe to say the GOP pick up 2 seats minimum in 2024, and Democrats potentially flip AZ.

[Raptorpat]

2 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Theres already rumblings

where

[Master-Debater131]

9 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

where

There were articles posted to r/Politics a week or two ago about how local Democrats were concerned that she could win because of her support from DC Democrats. They want her to be cut off completely and removed from all assignments, but DC Dems wont do that for a few reasons including the raw math in the Senate right now. DC Dems are building her incumbency credentials which could be enough to get her over the top, and local Dems are frustrated with that.