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Putin: "Stick to the timeline!"


tsar4

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Just a Colonel this time?  Here I was hoping for another general.  

Apparently Russian rules of engagement don’t give lower ranked officers autonomy so the senior commanders have to play helicopter parent, explaining why they’re in the field and not directing movement from a rear command post.

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4 minutes ago, Jman said:

Just a Colonel this time?  Here I was hoping for another general.  

Apparently Russian rules of engagement don’t give lower ranked officers autonomy so the senior commanders have to play helicopter parent, explaining why they’re in the field and not directing movement from a rear command post.

Theres also widespread reports of the soldiers simply refusing the orders of superiors.  Which isn't really a surprise.  Most of the army are conscripts who have little to no training.  They also have access to the internet so they can see whats happening.

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Just now, tsar4 said:

This is huge if true...  (The story is in Ukrainian)

image.png.47fb784181e147b04e3c1541462e1aa3.png

Considering the widespread reports of sabotage in Belarus against the Russian army, this isnt hard to believe.

 

Theres a rel chance that there could be a revolution in Belarus because of this.  The only thing that saved the current regime last time was Putin sending in troops, and hes a little preoccupied right now. If suddenly the military is sent to fight an extremely unpopular war, or they simply refuse, then the current regime may face a legitimate challenge from the people.

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You can bet your ass that NATO is asking Ukraine to send this to us. We've been wanting to get our hands on these for a while now, and Russia has kindly left one for Ukraine to send our way.  I really wouldnt be surprised if the next shipment of weapons was met with a "payment" by Ukraine in teh form of this device.

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5 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

 

If true, damn has Russia fucked this up. Theres rumors flying around today that they are going to give up on taking Kiev and the Western part of the country and instead redeploy everything to the Donbas to try and solidify their gains there.

like .... accidentally ran him over or ran him over on purpose ? 

XD

 

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It's at a turning point where Russia is pulling back from its now-stretch-goals (like taking the capital) and digging in where they've been successful, so whatever they don't get pushed out of in the near-term is going to lock in.

They're already trying to reframe the current status as the plan all along so it can be spun into a victory.

 

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As awesome as it is to see Ukraine starting to actually win this war, I do wonder if that increases the odds that Putin uses a WMD. He is being thoroughly embarrassed right now on all fronts. If he has to pull back to Donbas, what happens when he starts losing there?  I really dont think its crazy to think that Ukraine can retake some of the big cities there, and maintain control on ones they currently control.

 

Hes shown he is more than wiling to commit war crimes by targeting civilian infrastructure, whats to stop him from using chemical weapons?

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7 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

As awesome as it is to see Ukraine starting to actually win this war, I do wonder if that increases the odds that Putin uses a WMD. He is being thoroughly embarrassed right now on all fronts. If he has to pull back to Donbas, what happens when he starts losing there?  I really dont think its crazy to think that Ukraine can retake some of the big cities there, and maintain control on ones they currently control.

 

Hes shown he is more than wiling to commit war crimes by targeting civilian infrastructure, whats to stop him from using chemical weapons?

I think the fact that he's being able to dig in to some successful places is what is stopping him from dropping a nuke, bioweapon, or chemical weapon.  A lot is being made of him gaslighting with the chemical weapon plant accusation and him floating nukes as a last resort, but the significant issue with troop morale make using weapons of mass destruction a non-starter.  For him to successfully drop such a weapon, he needs to have firm control of the area or risk triggering a world war type conflict that he can't win and China won't back.   The odds were always going to be steep that he would revert to such weapons in the glare of the world spotlight, but the situations where such a weapon might reap marginal benefits all but evaporated once his forces started to get decimated.

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I would definitely say [ not that they are going to anyway ] but Ukraine do not give up for even a second. Do not allow any thoughts of Russians rebelling in their own ranks to keep from pushing back and forward with everything possible. 

This has been more of a shitshow than anyone expected. This isn't the expected chess game of a supposed first world leader, this feels like someone trying to play checkers on a Sorry! board. It feels like a magician's trick and we aren't watching the right hand. :| 

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2 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

I think the fact that he's being able to dig in to some successful places is what is stopping him from dropping a nuke, bioweapon, or chemical weapon.  A lot is being made of him gaslighting with the chemical weapon plant accusation and him floating nukes as a last resort, but the significant issue with troop morale make using weapons of mass destruction a non-starter.  For him to successfully drop such a weapon, he needs to have firm control of the area or risk triggering a world war type conflict that he can't win and China won't back.   The odds were always going to be steep that he would revert to such weapons in the glare of the world spotlight, but the situations where such a weapon might reap marginal benefits all but evaporated once his forces started to get decimated.

But what happens if he starts to lose those places?  Morale in his army is already rock-bottom, and thats before Ukraine really starts to counter attack.  They have started in a few places and seem to be having success.  What happens if the UA suddenly pushes Russia out of cities it controls in the Donbas? 

 

I agree that the odds he uses something are low, but I dont think its 0. And I do think that the worse his army does the more likely he is to something extremely stupid. The "escalate to descalate" doctrine that they use also may push him to do some sort of limited chemical attack. If the UA totally frees Mariupol for example, would he drop a chemical weapon in that city and then try and sue for peace saying that its gotten out of hand? I dont think the reaction from Ukraine, or the rest of the world, would be to accept that, but thats apparently how the Russian playbook operates. You make things worse to try and make them better.

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43 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

As awesome as it is to see Ukraine starting to actually win this wa

I definitely wouldn't say they're winning.

Russia is still invading, bombing cities to dust, capturing other cities and installing puppets, and they have a numerical advantage despite suffering steep losses.

Whether we realize it or not, a lot of the information being filtered out does have a pro-ukrainian bias, and we are completely in the dark as to how many casualties they've taken.

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16 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

I definitely wouldn't say they're winning.

Russia is still invading, bombing cities to dust, capturing other cities and installing puppets, and they have a numerical advantage despite suffering steep losses.

Whether we realize it or not, a lot of the information being filtered out does have a pro-ukrainian bias, and we are completely in the dark as to how many casualties they've taken.

Oh I absolutely recognize that what we are seeing is filtered with propaganda in mind. But I also think that the Ukraine is winning when you consider the full context of what happened. Russia invaded with the goal of decapitating the current government, setting up a puppet regime, and fully absorbing Ukraine back into the Russian sphere of influence. None of those things are going to happen. If anything the Russian-Ukraine split is going to become even more pronounced with Ukraine trying to get into the EU.

Russia may take control of a few cities and regions, but they wont take the whole country. And the places they are taking are, as you said, being bombed into dust. Thats not setting up for a benefit to the Russians. If anything it will be a huge drain. And thats assuming that Ukraine doesnt retake those ares or that there isnt a prolonged resistance in those areas that continues to drain Russian assets. At this point there really isnt a way for Russia to "win" in any conventional sense. Their initial goals are now totally unreachable, and even some of their new goals may become unreachable before long.

The West is poised to pump billions into Ukraine to help them rebuild when this war ends, the same cant be said for Russia. Theres no bringing back the people who Russia are murdering, but the long-term outlook for Ukraine looks better than it does for Russia.

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1 hour ago, Raptorpat said:

I definitely wouldn't say they're winning.

Russia is still invading, bombing cities to dust, capturing other cities and installing puppets, and they have a numerical advantage despite suffering steep losses.

Whether we realize it or not, a lot of the information being filtered out does have a pro-ukrainian bias, and we are completely in the dark as to how many casualties they've taken.

The US Government isn't completely in the dark about casualties, and its assessment, while considerably less rosy than Ukraine's Defense, still amounts to a staggering amount of casualties in the relatively short amount of time the war has been fought.

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1 hour ago, Master-Debater131 said:

But what happens if he starts to lose those places?  Morale in his army is already rock-bottom, and thats before Ukraine really starts to counter attack.  They have started in a few places and seem to be having success.  What happens if the UA suddenly pushes Russia out of cities it controls in the Donbas? 

If he ends up dropping a WMD, one of two things can happen:  WWIII starts by default and his forces are completely overwhelmed by NATO or his own forces are caught in the blast and decimated.  The redline term gets thrown around too easily, but nukes, biological, and chemical weapons all implicitly represent an existential threat to the world as a whole.

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https://nypost.com/2022/03/25/joe-biden-says-us-troops-will-be-in-ukraine-in-apparent-gaffe/

"President Biden told US troops in Poland Friday that they will witness the bravery of Ukrainians fighting off Russia’s invasion “when you’re there” — making a significant gaffe after he previously said the US must stay out of the European conflict to avoid triggering “World War III.”

Biden made the remark while addressing members of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division after lunching on pizza and posing for selfies with dozens of paratroopers at a mess hall in Rzeszow, southeastern Poland.

“You’re going to see when you’re there, and some of you have been there, you’re gonna see — you’re gonna see women, young people standing in the middle in front of a damned tank just saying, ‘I’m not leaving, I’m holding my ground,’” Biden said."

It's a "gaffe" until you realize his dementia has simply rendered him incapable of keeping his mouth shut....

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Ginguy said:

https://nypost.com/2022/03/25/joe-biden-says-us-troops-will-be-in-ukraine-in-apparent-gaffe/

"President Biden told US troops in Poland Friday that they will witness the bravery of Ukrainians fighting off Russia’s invasion “when you’re there” — making a significant gaffe after he previously said the US must stay out of the European conflict to avoid triggering “World War III.”

Biden made the remark while addressing members of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division after lunching on pizza and posing for selfies with dozens of paratroopers at a mess hall in Rzeszow, southeastern Poland.

“You’re going to see when you’re there, and some of you have been there, you’re gonna see — you’re gonna see women, young people standing in the middle in front of a damned tank just saying, ‘I’m not leaving, I’m holding my ground,’” Biden said."

It's a "gaffe" until you realize his dementia has simply rendered him incapable of keeping his mouth shut....

 

 

 

FNGLGWwWUAU_kNX.jpg.aa7ad4ff98016d403079dcfd641408a6.jpg

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16 minutes ago, Ginguy said:

https://nypost.com/2022/03/25/joe-biden-says-us-troops-will-be-in-ukraine-in-apparent-gaffe/

"President Biden told US troops in Poland Friday that they will witness the bravery of Ukrainians fighting off Russia’s invasion “when you’re there” — making a significant gaffe after he previously said the US must stay out of the European conflict to avoid triggering “World War III.”

Biden made the remark while addressing members of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division after lunching on pizza and posing for selfies with dozens of paratroopers at a mess hall in Rzeszow, southeastern Poland.

“You’re going to see when you’re there, and some of you have been there, you’re gonna see — you’re gonna see women, young people standing in the middle in front of a damned tank just saying, ‘I’m not leaving, I’m holding my ground,’” Biden said."

It's a "gaffe" until you realize his dementia has simply rendered him incapable of keeping his mouth shut....

 

 

 

Wow, anyway...

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2 hours ago, scoobdog said:

If he ends up dropping a WMD, one of two things can happen:  WWIII starts by default and his forces are completely overwhelmed by NATO or his own forces are caught in the blast and decimated.  The redline term gets thrown around too easily, but nukes, biological, and chemical weapons all implicitly represent an existential threat to the world as a whole.

My dad used to work as an at-large instructor teaching fire/police departments what to do in case of an attack involving chemical weapons (this was a thing they were very worried about post 9/11).

One of the concepts in the material involved "Mutually-Assured Destruction." So let's say, hypothetically, Russia attacks *checks Wikipedia* Kharkiv (est. population 1,433,886) with a WMD. Now, you have given any other country with WMD-style weapons reason to retaliate by attacking *checks again* either Yekaterinburg (1,495,066) or Kazan (1,257,341)

I'm not saying Putin's not crazy enough to do it, but he would open up a Pandora's Box where he could cause a lot of problems for himself and Russia if he did.    

Edited by Seight
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1 hour ago, tsar4 said:

Unconfirmed, but amazing if true...

image.png.a52fc89c7f69b15dd4ad50a48f797309.png

I wouldn't really rely on anything citing the Azov Battalion as it's source. Those guys are the alleged neo-nazis that tie all the narratives together, though I can't say for sure since I didn't follow the conflict prior and everything declarative now is untrustworthy.

https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/03/02/what-is-ukraines-azov-battalion/

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1 hour ago, Seight said:

My dad used to work as an at-large instructor teaching fire/police departments what to do in case of an attack involving chemical weapons (this was a thing they were very worried about post 9/11).

One of the concepts in the material involved "Mutually-Assured Destruction." So let's say, hypothetically, Russia attacks *checks Wikipedia* Kharkiv (est. population 1,433,886) with a WMD. Now, you have given any other country with WMD-style weapons reason to retaliate by attacking *checks again* either Yekaterinburg (1,495,066) or Kazan (1,257,341)

I'm not saying Putin's not crazy enough to do it, but he would open up a Pandora's Box where he could cause a lot of problems for himself and Russia if he did.    

Precisely.  It's certainly not impossible for him to fire Chekov's gun, but to do it he would almost certainly have to be insane.  I saw an article somewhere talking about how close the world was to a nuclear war but for an XO on a Russian submarine during the Bay of Pigs incident disobeying a direct order and refusing to fire a missile.  The reality is that Putin might be losing it, but he isn't all powerful and he won't be able to simply fire off a nuke without someone intervening.

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8 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

I wouldn't really rely on anything citing the Azov Battalion as it's source. Those guys are the alleged neo-nazis that tie all the narratives together, though I can't say for sure since I didn't follow the conflict prior and everything declarative now is untrustworthy.

https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/03/02/what-is-ukraines-azov-battalion/

I know who/what they are or purported to be.  And I've heard differing statuses as far as Mariupol goes.  

Yes - the Ukrainians hold it, that's why the Russians are shelling it.

No - it's contested and there's street to street fighting in some areas.

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