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UnevenEdge

2022 Midterms: Oh god, not again


Master-Debater131

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Yes, again! 

We are not that far away from the start of the 2022 campaign season, and we are only a couple weeks away from off-year elections in states like Virginia and New Jersey.

 

Going into next year the Democrats control the House and Senate by 8 seats and the VP respectively. All House seats are up for election next year and  in the Senate there are 34 seats up, 20 of them currently held by the GOP.

https://www.270towin.com/current-us-house-map/

In 2022, a GOP net gain of 9 seats would give them control of the House, and a net gain of 1 seat by either party in the Senate would give them control. This will be the first election since the 2020 Census produced a new electoral map.

Historically the party that controls the White House loses seats in the Midterms, and a key indicator of just how many is Presidential Job Approval. Both Obama and Trump saw their approval drop before the election, and then watched as their party was wiped out in the midterms.

Currently, the RCP average for Presidential Job Approval stands at a -6.6 approval.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html

 

RCP is a good resource for anyone looking for political information and news articles. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2022/

 

Prior to the 2022 elections though there is the Virginia off-year governors election. This has historically been a bit of a bellwether election in that it helps predict how the 2022 elections are going to go.  We are only a few weeks away from this election and McAuliffe currently has a 1.8 point lead in the RCP average. This race has tightened up considerably in the past couple of weeks.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/va/virginia_governor_youngkin_vs_mcauliffe-7373.html

 

There are also many local off-year elections where you can decide on issues that will directly impact you and the place you live. A bigger one out here is a proposed increase on Marijuana Taxes to fund schools. Check your local Secretary of State to learn more about your local elections.

 

We're a bit of a ways out still from the election, but rather than posting new threads all the time new polls came out I'm making this one so I can keep them all here. Im also going to use this thread for following the Virginia election.

 

And now, let the toxicity political juices flow. (but please don't be a dick about it, I'd like to actually try and keep it civil)

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New York has local elections and five statewide constitutional amendments, available here.

Three of which are elections reforms. One eliminates the ten-day voter registration requirement, and the other authorizes permanent no-excuse absentee voting.

The final one (well really proposal #1, the others are #3 and #4) does a wholesale cleanup of various elections stuff in the constitution but also tinkers with the redistricting commission originating in a 2014 amendment. Mixed bag on that one, depending on your perspective, but also very in-the-weeds.

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My vote goes to the politician that can explain to me, IN A WAY THAT MAKES SENSE, why I gotta pay taxes on internet purchases where I’m only receiving something digitally and not actually? Or tangibly? Idk what word I’m looking for but not a fucking train plane road or automobile or boat is used for half the shit I’m taxed on. 
 

explain that you got my vote.  Promise to cut that shit out, and I believe them, they got my vote two times. 

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On 10/22/2021 at 11:27 PM, Nabreezy said:

Dems are going to get wasted. Sucks to suck. 

Good is dumb.  It doesn’t help that the Senate sabotages the agenda every chance it gets (Manchin might as well have an R on his lapel) but they’re tone deaf.  Meanwhile the GOP is pure scum and doesn’t give a shit about how many people suffer or die, but they’re way more effective at the blame game.

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On 10/23/2021 at 9:51 AM, 1pooh4u said:

My vote goes to the politician that can explain to me, IN A WAY THAT MAKES SENSE, why I gotta pay taxes on internet purchases where I’m only receiving something digitally and not actually? Or tangibly? Idk what word I’m looking for but not a fucking train plane road or automobile or boat is used for half the shit I’m taxed on. 
 

explain that you got my vote.  Promise to cut that shit out, and I believe them, they got my vote two times. 

Sales tax doesn't give a fuck what you're buying. you gotta appease the gov't gods anytime you exchange someone else's goods for your currency...even if someone else's goods only exist as code. 

NFT has entered the chat.

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1 hour ago, wacky1980 said:

Sales tax doesn't give a fuck what you're buying. you gotta appease the gov't gods anytime you exchange someone else's goods for your currency...even if someone else's goods only exist as code. 

NFT has entered the chat.

I hate it that’s bullshit and it wasn’t always like that. It’s been a long time like this but it really really makes me mad. There’s no reason for it. I already pay taxes to be allowed to connect in the first place…ugh nvm I just hate it. Pooh smash 

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1 hour ago, wacky1980 said:

Sales tax doesn't give a fuck what you're buying. you gotta appease the gov't gods anytime you exchange someone else's goods for your currency...even if someone else's goods only exist as code. 

NFT has entered the chat.

Btw no vote for you. No sense is made 😆

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On 10/23/2021 at 10:51 AM, 1pooh4u said:

My vote goes to the politician that can explain to me, IN A WAY THAT MAKES SENSE, why I gotta pay taxes on internet purchases where I’m only receiving something digitally and not actually? Or tangibly? Idk what word I’m looking for but not a fucking train plane road or automobile or boat is used for half the shit I’m taxed on. 

21 hours ago, 1pooh4u said:

I hate it that’s bullshit and it wasn’t always like that. It’s been a long time like this but it really really makes me mad. There’s no reason for it. I already pay taxes to be allowed to connect in the first place…ugh nvm I just hate it. Pooh smash 

Much of the tax system is built around the concept of taxing transactions, because the constitution says there can be no "direct tax" - hence things like the income tax or the local sales tax where the government takes its cut in the transaction.

For a while there was a real disparity between in-person and online sales, no one knew who had jurisdiction over the internet so it wasn't sales taxed. Great for online shoppers, but it undercut physical retailers (on top of the added comparative costs of physical retail sites etc.) and it siphoned away tax revenues for localities that generally don't really have many other means of generating revenue. So to balance the scales for physical retailers and to make localities whole, NY law for example treats all online sales as occurring in the location of the consumer, so that's why you have to pay your local sales tax regardless of wherever you buy something online.

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9 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

Much of the tax system is built around the concept of taxing transactions, because the constitution says there can be no "direct tax" - hence things like the income tax or the local sales tax where the government takes its cut in the transaction.

For a while there was a real disparity between in-person and online sales, no one knew who had jurisdiction over the internet so it wasn't sales taxed. Great for online shoppers, but it undercut physical retailers (on top of the added comparative costs of physical retail sites etc.) and it siphoned away tax revenues for localities that generally don't really have many other means of generating revenue. So to balance the scales for physical retailers and to make localities whole, NY law for example treats all online sales as occurring in the location of the consumer, so that's why you have to pay your local sales tax regardless of wherever you buy something online.

Idc about being taxed if I purchase something that’s sent to me. What I think is bullshit nonsense is when I purchase digital items that don’t undercut anything because there was never a brick and mortar place for a lot of the purchases I make.  

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1 hour ago, Raptorpat said:

I don't know enough to speak to that, other than like a digital purchase of a game/movie means you're not buying a physical copy of that game/movie.

But my guess is they just wanted a blanket rule that maximizes revenue with the least ambiguity.

I mean an in app purchase but yeah games too. When I buy a digital copy of a game or music everyone gets paid except some hypothetical business owner, and the state of NY prior to the tax change That’s not fair to the consumer at all.  People purchasing things digitally are being less wasteful and thereby helping the environment but we’re taxed because they don’t get the tax from had I purchased it in a store.  I’m being taxed for not using something. That’s bullshit nonsense kakapeepeepoopooshire. 

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Virginia is getting awfully close.  McAuliffe has a 0.8% lead in the RCP average. Of the last 5 polls, only 1 has a lead of more than 1 point for him. The others are all either tied or McAuliffe by 1.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/va/virginia_governor_youngkin_vs_mcauliffe-7373.html

 

This is starting to shape up to have all the markings of a major upset. McAuliffe was supposed to walk away with this one in a state that Biden won by 10 just a few months ago.

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Pooh: States and localities can't print money the way the Feds can and are no better at balancing budgets. Thus, you pay taxes.

MD : I suspect about 6000 - 8,500 ballots worth of fortification in the Virginia race. McAuliffe should have been toast with his "parents shouldn't be involved in their children's education" bit. What is worth watching, in my view, is how effective the approach Youngkin has taken is. Will traditional grassroots campaigning actually flip a race against money and surrogates with national recognition?

 

 

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The RCP Average for Virginia has had a huge change today. Youngkin is up 1.2 in the latest average.  This is mainly because of a Fox poll showing him with an 8 point lead.

That poll looks mighty outlierish to me. No other poll has shown Youngkin with a lead, let alone one outside the MoE. Youngkin clearly has the momentum, but I really doubt hes up 8 right now.

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2 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

The RCP Average for Virginia has had a huge change today. Youngkin is up 1.2 in the latest average.  This is mainly because of a Fox poll showing him with an 8 point lead.

That poll looks mighty outlierish to me. No other poll has shown Youngkin with a lead, let alone one outside the MoE. Youngkin clearly has the momentum, but I really doubt hes up 8 right now.

And just like that WaPo is out with a poll showing McAuliffe with a 1 point lead.

 

The difference between the two is Fox polled Likely Voters and WaPo polled Registered Voters.  Either way, its pretty clear that Tuesday should be a very tight race.

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In other news, NY AG Letitia James just formally announced she is running for Governor.

The announcement video is a general combination of her bio and recent accomplishments, but it will be interesting to see what her real messaging will be given she is primarying an incumbent who is going out of her own way to check off all the right boxes to be reelected in her own right.

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6 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

The RCP Average for Virginia has had a huge change today. Youngkin is up 1.2 in the latest average.  This is mainly because of a Fox poll showing him with an 8 point lead.

That poll looks mighty outlierish to me. No other poll has shown Youngkin with a lead, let alone one outside the MoE. Youngkin clearly has the momentum, but I really doubt hes up 8 right now.

So, Va race.

Three scenarios are possible:

A. McAuliffe wins outright on election night.

B. Youngkin wins outright on election night.

C. Youngkin has more votes on election night but ultimately loses.

 

Of the three, I'd suspect C at this point. It will probably play out as follows; Youngkin and the GOP win on election night. The State House goes GOP by a slim margin, 3-5 seats, and Youngkin is the apparent winner by election night vote totals. The media will not call the race, instead pointing out that there are still five (I believe) business days for ballots postmarked by election day to arrive and be counted. Loudoun County, Fairfax County, Arlington County and Richmond Co. will all report preliminary results, and then the number of ballots needed for McAuliffe to eek out a bare victory will slowly trickle in to those counties.

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Just now, wacky1980 said:

So on the VA race...

twitter.com/holmes_reports/status/1454094826824212485

twitter.com/TrumpJew2/status/1454148274319933448

twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1454196150177783811

 

Lincoln Project lol. 

God, the Dems suck so much shit it's honestly incredible. Just constantly putting on one master class after another in losing, even when they "win"

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I don't even think I believe LP on this one. They're caping pretty hard for McAuliffe in this race, but I fail to see how anyone would think this was a good idea. Internet sleuths have supposedly ID'd most of these actors as VA Dem party staffers, which gives it a heavy false-flag vibe. However, LP claims it was a demonstration. Maybe they're trying to take some heat off McAuliffe and his slipping finish?

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On 10/23/2021 at 3:50 PM, naraku360 said:

Wut

It was lame duck-era Obama's (ie his entire last year in office when he couldn't even get his Supreme Court nominee seated) catchphrase for a little bit. Don't get angry about politics, don't be mad about how the world just keeps getting shittier and no one with any power is doing anything to improve it, just funnel alllllll that anger and frustration and energy into continuously voting for the Democrats year after year after year, because what other choice do we the powerless peons have? Don't get mad, just go vote and feel that catharsis when team blue occasionally "wins" on paper, regardless of what those "wins" actually result in for anyone.

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1 hour ago, Nabreezy said:

It was lame duck-era Obama's (ie his entire last year in office when he couldn't even get his Supreme Court nominee seated) catchphrase for a little bit. Don't get angry about politics, don't be mad about how the world just keeps getting shittier and no one with any power is doing anything to improve it, just funnel alllllll that anger and frustration and energy into continuously voting for the Democrats year after year after year, because what other choice do we the powerless peons have? Don't get mad, just go vote and feel that catharsis when team blue occasionally "wins" on paper, regardless of what those "wins" actually result in for anyone.

What's your problem, dude?

You think me not getting mad means I don't care?

I'm unreasonable when I'm mad, and it's just miserable and exhausting and pointless to rampage impotently. 

So I'm sorry if my lack of temper tantrums is hurting your feelings.

This isn't an ode to the holy Biden administration. If Trump had won, I'd striving for the same. Biden winning is irrelevant beyond people being less unbearably obnoxious with a constant flood of dumb culture war bullshit overshadowing the serious stuff.

I just grew up.

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