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2022 Midterms: Oh god, not again


Master-Debater131

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18 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Its uh, its looking like this might be a total GOP takeover in Virginia.  The GOP may even retake the House.

Their Senate isn't up for reelection for another two years so that stays Dem. VA probably has the worst election calendar of any state.

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Probably. Once all the votes are counted, the question will be (assuming it's all federalized) are Dem-voters from previous elections staying home because they're disappointed with the party's performance nabs-style (or otherwise indifferent), or were they really only on board in the first place purely to get rid of Trump and aren't actually Dem-leaning?

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57 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

are Dem-voters from previous elections staying home because they're disappointed with the party's performance nabs-style (or otherwise indifferent), or were they really only on board in the first place purely to get rid of Trump and aren't actually Dem-leaning?

 

https://www.lx.com/politics/young-voters-didnt-turn-out-for-californias-recall-what-that-means-for-democrats-in-2022/44683/

Young people are the same all over and they're all embarrassed and disgusted by this rightwing democratic party that never does anything for anyone and its rightwing rich people agenda.

IMO Dems can't just stand by and do nothing except the most rightwing possible legislation and still expect the people they need to put them over the top to bother leaving the house to vote for them just because they "got something done" when that something is always meager and temporary and often terrible/much shittier than advertised. 

If they can't get good legislation passed bc of all of the many conservative democrats in the party than they need to go all out excoriating those Dems and burn them at the stake and kick them out of the party, cast out the demons instead of constantly sucking up to them and ceding all control to them and appeasing them as they water down every potential policy until it's just water that someone pissed in. Stop openly giving them everything they want and telling progressive legislators to trust the process and just go along with the rightwing legislation for now, blatantly lying/fake promising to come through with actually good legislation "later" which never ever comes, like the way they've been doing. 

Instead they're just keeping all their excuses intact, on purpose. Not packing the court, not going over the loser parliamentarian's nonbinding recommendations to actually do some good for people, not getting rid of the filibuster etc. Just publicly giving up on all of that, no public pressure on any of the allegedly "small handful" of Dems who don't support those things, just 'welp these ""quasi-Republicans'" are not into it guys, sorry everyone, but they're simply too valuable to have around, we need them here to make everything worse so we can't identify them as enemies and try to rally voters to fight them out of office"

The Dems are not trying whatsoever to remake this party that literally everyone hates and only bothers to vote for after the GOP gets in power and reminds everyone of how bad they are bc they're happy with where they are as a party, forever playing the lovable loser face that just can't get anything done to the Republican's' dastardly heel tactics which result in getting the right everything they could ever possibly want, bc the Dems mostly want those same things just as much as the Republicans do. 

Article excerpts:

Spoiler

They aren’t the numbers Democrats wanted to see heading into a vital midterm year.

New data obtained by NBCLX reveals turnout among voters aged 18-29 fell by nearly half for California’s September recall election, compared to the 2020 presidential election 10 months earlier.  The share of ballots from those young adults fell to just 12% of the electorate, down from 17% last November, according to the secretary of state’s office.

And even though overall turnout for the recall election was down 28% from 2020’s presidential race, the drop-off among voters under 30 (48%) was four times higher than the drop-off among voters over 60 (12%).

Gen Z-ers, voters more likely than any other generation to support Democratic candidates, according to Pew, are also now the voters most likely to say they no longer support the job performance of President Joe Biden and other established Democrat leaders.

California’s turnout numbers, as well as recent polling, suggest Democrats may be suffering due to young progressives’ frustrations over the glacial pace of progress in fulfilling Biden campaign promises on social programs, climate change and civil rights.

While the young voter drop-off didn’t stop Newsom from surviving his recall election by a 24-point margin, Democrats trying to preserve their narrow eight-seat House majority don’t feel like they have any room for error in 2022.

“Democrats are going to face devastating consequences in the midterm elections if we do not deliver for the people,” said Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY), one of the youngest members of Congress at 34 years old. “Most people intuitively believe that when a party has unified control of the federal government, including majorities in both chambers of Congress, that they should be able to act swiftly, especially on the priorities that they campaigned on.”

Only 43% of Gen-Z voters approve of President Biden’s job performance, compared to 51% of Millennials, 46% of Generation X and 45% of Baby Boomers, according to an October poll from Morning Consult and Politico.

For Gen Z, that represents a nearly 20-point drop in approval from June, when 62% of adults 18-24 gave Biden the thumbs-up, compared to 59% of Millennials and 51% of both Gen X-ers and Baby Boomers. Polls ahead of the California recall election showed similar dissatisfaction among young voters for Gov. Newsom, despite him frequently being painted as too liberal by conservatives in other parts of the country.

And a recent poll from The Economist and YouGov revealed only 36% of voters under 30 said they considered President Biden “liberal,” the lowest of any age group polled. Only 24% considered him “honest and trustworthy,” also the lowest of any age group.

Young voters are also dissatisfied with leading Democrats, such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a San Francisco native also painted for decades by conservatives as too liberal, but who’s recently been criticized by progressives for not doing enough to forcefully pass Democratic priorities. Her approval rating among Gen-Z voters (23%) was far lower than among any other generation, according to the Morning Consult/Politico poll.

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Seems like Democrats don’t know how to read the room. There wasn’t a whole lot they had to do to look good and they just didn’t deliver.  They seem to be in complete denial that progressive Democratic socialist policies are what the people want. Particularly the newer voting demographic.  The NY Post tried to push this off on Biden’s policies being unpopular but idt it’s that. A lot of his policies and bills he wants to pass are insanely popular but Sinema and Manchin are doing everything in their power to stall and gut everything.  Voter turnout was pretty much shit across the country too

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In ny the back of the ballot had some amendments or something to consider and I hate that this shit doesn’t get enough attention. I get crap in the mail for voting all the time. Don’t remember getting anything about the questions on the back of the ballot, one was about redistricting, how am I supposed to vote on that when it’s unclear what changes they want to make?  Clean air. Yes I want that worked on.  Up to Election Day registration, yeah I want that. Eligible voters shouldn’t be kept from voting because they didn’t register soon enough. Yes I want no excuse absentee voting. Other NYers didn’t want most of those things. Clean air they wanted. On the redistricting question I crossed my fingers and voted yes hoping anything that was planned was to make it more fair but that’s a real stupid way to vote on something. 💩

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I'll freely admit that I don't pay much attention to local races because what the fuck is a prothonotary and why is it even an elected position. There were a bunch of questions on our ballot about whether judges should be retained for another term because I guess that's how PA does things, but it was a bitch of a time finding out info and I mostly gave up at some point. There was one lady running for some office as both a Democrat and a Republican so lord knows how that works. 

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Most major statewide ballot measures failed out here.  At the local level only one passed. It requires all police officers and sheriffs to pass a background check. That was already state law, but it brings local law inline with state.  There was a measure to remove the word "men" and "man" from our local laws and charter as well, that went down in a flaming pile.

 

We basically voted "Status quo" out here.

 

Edit: Should add that one is still too close to call. Its too close to call on if we will change our local laws to allow for marijuana dispensaries to be established. Its currently leading, but its close enough that they have to wait for any provisional ballots as well as a recount before they can say one way or the other.  Im hopeful it passes.

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14 minutes ago, Top Gun said:

I'll freely admit that I don't pay much attention to local races because what the fuck is a prothonotary and why is it even an elected position. There were a bunch of questions on our ballot about whether judges should be retained for another term because I guess that's how PA does things, but it was a bitch of a time finding out info and I mostly gave up at some point. There was one lady running for some office as both a Democrat and a Republican so lord knows how that works. 

I forgot about that, there was a judicial question on there too whether or not to expand civil court jurisdiction to a cap of 50k from 25k. Idgaf about that. Make the cap a billion dollars. Doubt it matters to most people 

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1 hour ago, 1pooh4u said:

Seems like Democrats don’t know how to read the room. There wasn’t a whole lot they had to do to look good and they just didn’t deliver.  They seem to be in complete denial that progressive Democratic socialist policies are what the people want. Particularly the newer voting demographic.  The NY Post tried to push this off on Biden’s policies being unpopular but idt it’s that. A lot of his policies and bills he wants to pass are insanely popular but Sinema and Manchin are doing everything in their power to stall and gut everything.  Voter turnout was pretty much shit across the country too

The Republican Party ran a scorched earth campaign against the five Constitutional Amendments and the Democrats did... nothing. To adopt a constitutional amendment, the legislature has to pass it once, then pass it again in the subsequent term, then it goes to public referendum. For all that effort shielding the little baby sea turtles from predators, they sure did leave them on their own for the last 30 yards to the sea.

In reverse order:

  • Prop 5 (passed): this was a purely bureaucratic amendment to increase the financial jurisdiction of NYC civil courts from $25k to $50k, which hadn't been updated since the 1980s. It's unfortunate that a local, technical adjustment has to go to a statewide referendum, but for whatever reason it's in the state constitution and this is the process. To that end, the state GOP chair said something along the lines of "I don't particularly care about NYC courts, so we're just telling everyone to vote 'no' on everything so they don't get confused."
  • Props 4 & 3 (failed): prop 4 would lift the constitutional requirement that absentee voting requires an excuse, and prop 3 would lift the constitutional 10-day registration deadline in order to vote. The GOP campaign framed no-excuse absentee voting and same-day registration as inviting fraud, and the Democrats did nothing.
  • Prop 2 (passed): this enshrines an affirmative right to clean air, water, and a healthful environment in the state constitution. The GOP opposed it because the nature of affirmative rights empowers the state to enforce it through regulation and litigation. However the simplicity of the language made it impossible to negatively characterize, so it passed.
  • Prop 1 (failed): I will spare everyone the extensive details, but this proposal incorporated numerous positive or technical cleanup change to the apportionment and redistricting process, but all of that was logrolling to mask that it reduced the 2/3 majority threshold to override the new redistricting commission to just a bare majority. It's impossible to summarize concisely and a little bit slimy, so it was real easy to attack.
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17 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

The Republican Party ran a scorched earth campaign against the five Constitutional Amendments and the Democrats did... nothing. To adopt a constitutional amendment, the legislature has to pass it once, then pass it again in the subsequent term, then it goes to public referendum. For all that effort shielding the little baby sea turtles from predators, they sure did leave them on their own for the last 30 yards to the sea.

In reverse order:

  • Prop 5 (passed): this was a purely bureaucratic amendment to increase the financial jurisdiction of NYC civil courts from $25k to $50k, which hadn't been updated since the 1980s. It's unfortunate that a local, technical adjustment has to go to a statewide referendum, but for whatever reason it's in the state constitution and this is the process. To that end, the state GOP chair said something along the lines of "I don't particularly care about NYC courts, so we're just telling everyone to vote 'no' on everything so they don't get confused."
  • Props 4 & 3 (failed): prop 4 would lift the constitutional requirement that absentee voting requires an excuse, and prop 3 would lift the constitutional 10-day registration deadline in order to vote. The GOP campaign framed no-excuse absentee voting and same-day registration as inviting fraud, and the Democrats did nothing.
  • Prop 2 (passed): this enshrines an affirmative right to clean air, water, and a healthful environment in the state constitution. The GOP opposed it because the nature of affirmative rights empowers the state to enforce it through regulation and litigation. However the simplicity of the language made it impossible to negatively characterize, so it passed.
  • Prop 1 (failed): I will spare everyone the extensive details, but this proposal incorporated numerous positive or technical cleanup change to the apportionment and redistricting process, but all of that was logrolling to mask that it reduced the 2/3 majority threshold to override the new redistricting commission to just a bare majority. It's impossible to summarize concisely and a little bit slimy, so it was real easy to attack.

Thank you for explaining it all now I don’t feel badly that I voted “yes”. I voted “yes” down the ballot because with the exception of the one you explained last, but was first on the ballot, sounded like positive changes.  Too bad only two of them were approved 

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I suppose it depends on whether you believe in the merits of independent redistricting, or if you believe it is akin to "unilateral disarmament".

On one hand, yeah the commission is a mess and wasn't particularly negotiated around success. And the Senate Republicans built in a bonus, basically if the GOP is still in control of the Senate, it's a majority vote to override, and if the Dems won control it's a 2/3 vote to override. But faced between fixing it or allowing the majority to do whatever it wants, they opted for the latter. Instead of getting rid of the "Republican bonus" and applying the 2/3 rule universally they wanted to make the bonus the actual rule.

I'd say they've earned the fallout, but they already have dual supermajorities that will override the commission this year so it was really a future power grab.

Anyways, given this and the voting rights stuff failed, if they immediately tried again the next time it could go to a vote would be 2023. But given there are even less elections of consequence that year, it only makes sense (to me at least) to hold off until the 2024 presidential cycle ballot.

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Hmm, seems I was correct about election night events, simply incorrect in which State they occurred.

What surprised me the most was the Mayor of Buffalo winning in a sour grapes write-in campaign against the self-proclaimed socialist Democrat candidate.

 

What is amazing to me is the sudden and swift turn against suburban white women, who largely gave the Dems their victories in 2020. Now apparently they are racists and a danger to democracy. 

At this rate the Dems are going to run out of constituencies.

 

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The whole "this election means they will never win again" thing is as predictable as it is tired.

2008: Obama wins, the GOP will never win again!

2010: GOP wave, Democrats will never win again!

2012: Obama Wins, the GOP will never win again!

2014: GOP win, Democrats will never win again!

2016: Trump win, Democrats will never win again!

2018: Democrat wave, the GOP will never win again!

2020: Biden win, the GOP will never win again!

2021: GOP wins off-year, Democrats will never win again!

 

Our politics operates as a pendulum. Its constantly swinging from one party to the other. Thats just kinda how it works here. Maybe to greater degrees and faster swing in recent years than the pre-2000 years, but it still swings.

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The question is: to what extent is it due to persuasion versus turnout?

Like, I assume there two odd-year states have their long-running gubernatorial track records of flipping away from DC because it's a comparatively low turnout election where turnout is only goosed for the aggrieved side.

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/11/breaking-new-jersey-senate-president-wont-concede-republican-truck-driver-says-12000-ballots-recently-found-one-county/

"New Jersey state Senate President Steve Sweeney is not conceding in a race The Associated Press called for Edward Durr, a virtually unknown Republican challenger, on Thursday morning.“The results from Tuesday’s election continue to come in, for instance there were 12,000 ballots recently found in one county,” Sweeney said in an email to POLITICO. “While I am currently trailing in the race, we want to make sure every vote is counted. Our voters deserve that, and we will wait for the final results.” Sweeney, who as Senate president is the state’s second-most powerful elected official, was down more than 2,000 votes to Durr,a truck driver who says he spent less than $10,000 on the race."

How does it go; he's a danger to Democracy!!!!!!!! REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Raptorpat said:

Has Sweeney alleged that it was fraud yet to his massive political base?

Not yet.

I presume he is waiting for the ballot machines to stop going BRRRRRRRRRRR, and has thus far gone with the "every vote has to be counted". This is distinct from Ciattarelli's(sp) "every legal vote" stipulation.

I've not been following this too much, so things might have changed in the last 24-48 hours. It's New Jersey, I think they taught Chicago.

 

 

 

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https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3827

 

Long way out from election day, and a ton can change, but man are these numbers brutal. And not just for him. The generic congressional ballot is leaning heavily toward the GOP right now.

 

"Americans say 46 - 38 percent they would want to see the Republican Party win control of the House of Representatives, while 16 percent did not offer an opinion.

Republicans and Democrats overwhelmingly back their own parties. Independents say 41 - 31 percent they would want to see Republicans win control of the U.S. House of Representatives, while 28 percent did not offer an opinion."

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9 hours ago, FatRacistAltRightIncel said:

GREAT!

THOSE GOT-DAMN COMMUNIST CHINESE AGENTS INSIDE THE UNITED STATES GUVMENT ARE GONNA STEAL ANOTHER ELECTION FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE!

IT'S SO SAD TO SEE THIS COUNTRY FLUSHED DOWN THE TUBES IN THE NAME OF GLOBOHOMO AND WOKEISM!

SAD!

You need a welfare check?

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3 hours ago, Ginguy said:

So, Cook moved three Senate races from lean Dem to toss up.

Wonder how the massive social spending bill that passed the House will impact things....

 

 

In a honest society, less than the massive even-more-than-last-year military budget that seems to get a ticker tape parade from the 'party of fiscal responsibility' .

At least the social programs can be audited. 

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Well, looks like thats it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/19/us/politics/wisconsin-republicans-decertify-election.html

Quote

Republicans in Wisconsin are engaged in an all-out assault on the state’s election system, building off their attempts to challenge the results of the 2020 presidential race by pressing to give themselves full control over voting in the state.

The Republican effort — broader and more forceful than that in any other state where allies of former President Donald J. Trump are trying to overhaul elections — takes direct aim at the bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission, an agency Republicans created half a decade ago that has been under attack since the chaotic aftermath of last year’s election.

The onslaught picked up late last month after a long-awaited report on the 2020 results that was ordered by Republican state legislators found no evidence of fraud but made dozens of suggestions for the election commission and the G.O.P.-led Legislature, fueling Republican demands for more control of elections.

Then the Trump-aligned sheriff of Racine County, the state’s fifth most populous county, recommended felony charges against five of the six members of the election commission for guidance they had given to municipal clerks early in the pandemic. The Republican majority leader of the State Senate later seemed to give a green light to that proposal, saying that “prosecutors around the state” should determine whether to bring charges.

And last week, Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, said that G.O.P. state lawmakers should unilaterally assert control of federal elections, claiming that they had the authority to do so even if Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, stood in their way — an extraordinary legal argument debunked by a 1932 Supreme Court decision and a 1964 ruling from the Wisconsin Supreme Court. His suggestion was nonetheless echoed by Michael Gableman, a conservative former State Supreme Court justice who is conducting the Legislature’s election inquiry.

Republican control of Wisconsin elections is necessary, Mr. Johnson said in an interview on Wednesday, because he believes Democrats cheat.

“Do I expect Democrats to follow the rules?” said the senator, who over the past year has promoted fringe theories on topics like the Capitol riot and Covid vaccines. “Unfortunately, I probably don’t expect them to follow the rules. And other people don’t either, and that’s the problem.”

The uproar over election administration in Wisconsin — where the last two presidential contests have been decided by fewer than 23,000 votes each — is heightened by the state’s deep divisions and its pivotal place in American politics.

Some top Republican officials in Wisconsin privately acknowledge that their colleagues are playing to the party’s base by calling for state election officials to be charged with felonies or for their authority to be usurped by lawmakers.

Adding to the uncertainty, Mr. Johnson’s proposal has not yet been written into legislation in Madison. Mr. Evers has vowed to stop it.

“The outrageous statements and ideas Wisconsin Republicans have embraced aren’t about making our elections stronger, they’re about making it more difficult for people to participate in the democratic process,” Mr. Evers said Thursday. The G.O.P.’s election proposals, he added, “are nothing more than a partisan power grab.”

 

So there's a lot more, but tldr- remember when Republicans tried to ignore the results of the election and submit their own hand-chosen electors instead of the electoral college and err'body was like "hey, thats literally election fraud"?

Well now thats cool.

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ENHANCE

6 hours ago, SwimModSponges said:

the bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission, an agency Republicans created half a decade ago that has been under attack since the chaotic aftermath of last year’s election.

So literally, they created a commission around the time Trump was elected and now they're like "naw"?!?!?1?

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https://jacobinmag.com/2021/11/republicans-wisconsin-ron-johnson-voting-rights-gerrymandering-midterms

Quote

appeared on local radio to declare his “loss of confidence” in the state’s elections commission and assert the need for its legislature to take control of future elections. The context for Johnson’s remarks is important, coming as they do in the wake of a nonpartisan report that found no significant evidence of fraud during the 2020 election — the upshot being that if actual evidence of foul play cannot be found, Republican lawmakers will simply continue to assert that it has occurred as a pretext for continuing to meddle with election rules. Johnson’s intervention also follows a Republican-led push for a partisan redistricting of the state that passed its senate earlier this month.

Taken together, both represent different thrusts in a wider GOP strategy to consolidate power by rewriting election laws and empowering state legislatures to toss out results in future contests. The two efforts are, of course, mutually reinforcing. With greater control of state legislatures, Republicans wield more power to rewrite rules and redraw district boundaries, thus ensuring false majorities that will, in turn, be empowered to act in the GOP’s favor in the event of future disputes in presidential elections — particularly if the results are close

In the case of Wisconsin, it’s already quite apparent how effective such rigging efforts can be. Whether Johnson’s push ultimately succeeds or not, and whether the latest GOP-led attempt at redistricting eventually finds a way around Democratic governor Tony Evers’s subsequent veto, the state’s gerrymandered boundaries have already rewarded Republicans with 64 percent of the seats in its assembly on only 46 percent of the vote. In many ways, it’s pertinent that such efforts are happening in Wisconsin to begin with. A longtime progressive fortress and onetime bastion of American socialism, the past decade has seen the state transformed into a kind of laboratory for the Right’s wider assault on unions, voting rights, and other pillars of democracy.

Its experience is, of course, by no means an isolated case. Since the 2020 presidential election, Republican legislatures across America have moved to redraw the boundaries of state electoral districts, rewrite election rules, and suppress the votes of traditionally non-Republican constituencies. As of last May, data compiled by the Brennan Center found that legislators in some forty-eight states had introduced legislation with restrictive provisions, while twenty-two of such bills had already been enacted. This is to say nothing of the many GOP-led efforts at redrawing district boundaries, a few more of which have passed through other state legislatures in recent months. A summary compiled by voting rights expert Ari Berman underscores the profoundly antidemocratic character of such efforts:

In Georgia, Republicans passed a new congressional map on Monday that would give their party 64 percent of US House seats in a state Joe Biden won with 49.5 percent of the vote.
In Ohio, Republicans passed a new congressional map on November 18 giving their party at least 80 percent of seats in a state Donald Trump won with 53 percent of the vote.
In North Carolina, Republicans passed a new congressional map on November 4 giving their party between 71 to 78 percent of seats in a state Trump won with 49.9 percent of the vote.
In Texas, Republicans passed a new congressional map on October 18 giving their party 65 percent of seats in a state Trump won with 52 percent of the vote.
As Berman rightly points out, such gerrymandering may help give the Republican Party a huge advantage in next year’s midterms and allow it to consolidate control in several key state legislatures — effectively turning them red for at least the next decade, even if the GOP secures less than 50 percent of the vote.

For all their rhetoric surrounding Donald Trump, the events of January 6, and the supposedly existential threat facing American democracy, national Democrats have steadfastly refused to do any of the things necessary to counter this onslaught. They’ve apparently ruled out any attempt to ditch the filibuster and visibly have no strategy to pass voting rights legislation ahead of next year’s midterms. Still more remarkably, officials in the Biden White House have insisted to activists that the Democrats intend to “out-organize” voter suppression — as sure a sign as any that even basic self-interest will not be enough to convince the administration to make voting rights a priority while Democrats wield unified control of the federal government.

The picture is, to say the least, pretty bleak. While one of America’s two major political parties is engaged in a concerted effort to rig future elections in its favor, its supposedly reform-minded, liberal alternative consistently refuses to do much more than issue dire rhetorical warnings about the Republican menace while precluding or dismissing the kinds of actions that logically follow from them. Make no mistake: the ultimate goal of the GOP’s strategy is nothing less than the permanent instantiation of conservative minority rule. Thanks to the complacency of America’s most powerful liberals, the realization of that goal may start to look like something more than a pipe dream in the years ahead.

 

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What it should mean when a Republican is seeing a primary challenger: "We think you're too busy following GOP leadership's vendettas to effectively serve for this fine state's interests."

What it's gonna mean: "Your elected representatives vote with Biden and the Democrats...like, 15% of the time. THAT'S WAY TOO HIGH!"

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