scoobdog Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 8 minutes ago, tsar4 said: Trump sent Covid testing machines to Putin I like how he sounded like a petulant teenager girl while doing it and Putin had to soothe his temper because of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Joe, or maybe more likely, Jill Biden is doing whatever they can to sabotage the Harris campaign. This is the 2nd time in a week where Harris has gone out to do an major, well major for her, event and Biden counter programs her at the same exact time. This time it was when she went on The View. While she was doing that Biden was doing his own press event talking about preparing for Hurricane Milton. Biden also went a step further this time and flatly rejected the Harris talking point that DeSantis was refusing to coordinate with the White House. Turns out that not only is that not true, its hilariously wrong. DeSantis and the Biden Admin have been in pretty constant communication leading up to the hurricane. Biden even praised DeSantis for his preparedness before the storm. Biden really does hate Harris. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 That’s your takeaway? Not DeSeantis being shamed or forced to taking the call lest his constituents suffer? This hurricane is going to be a record breaker, and at that point, innocents will pay the price if he plays politics. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Polling is starting to show a Trump advantage as well. Its not just worth looking at where current polls are, but also at historic comps. We have 2 previous elections we can look at to see what happened, and how the polls show whos got the advantage right now. National- Harris is running 7 points behind Biden and 2.6 behind Hillary. Hillary lost, Biden won. If shes this far behind Biden at this point thats a bad sign for her. Wisconsin - Again, behind both Biden and Hillary. Biden and Hillary wound up winning these. Biden by only 0.6%. Penn - Trumps actually leading here, and Harris is behind both Hillary and Trump. This is the strange one where Biden was performing worse than Hillary at this time but went on to win the state. Probably a bit of a home-town advantage for Biden, something Harris wont have. Ohio - not even worth mentioning. Thats going Trump Michigan - this may be the biggest flip this time around. Harris is well behind both Biden and Hillary. Biden was up 6.7% and wound up winning by roughly 3%. Harris is barely up with a 0.5% lead right now. Thats horrible for her. Democrats are already openly talking about how worried they are about Michigan flipping to Trump. He does that and its going to be extremely hard for Harris to win. Arizona - Polls have actually been fairly accurate on predicting the eventual winner here. No reason to think that wont continue based on recent history. NC - Trump has the lead right now. Biden had a 1.8% lead and Trump wound up winning it in 2020. Georgia - Probably the most likely to flip polls to Harris. In 2020 it was a Tie and Biden wound up squeaking out a win. Florida isnt worth talking about- Trumps got this in the bag. In all of these states Harris is running behind both Hillary and Biden at the same point in time. If the polls miss by even relatively the same amount as the last 2 elections then Trump is going to win the majority of these states. Trump has the advantage right now, and theres not a ton of time, or reasons, for the trajectory of this race to change. Theres nothing that can be said about Trump that isnt already said. Which is different from Harris where it seems like she does worse every time people learn about her. As of now, Trump is probably the favorite to win this thing. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Insipid Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 58 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said: Biden's numbers here for Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are lower than Clinton's, but unlike her, he won those states. None of this shit is set in stone or sets a precendent or anything. I'll even make a "bold" claim now: Trump will lose the popular vote again for the third and hopefully final career-ending time. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Another day, another crazed threat the media will run cover for. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PenguinBoss Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Trump calling anyone else incoherent makes me wish he understood irony. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwimOdin Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 @Master-Debater131 you can’t possibly believe Trump does any media interviews beyond the softest of soft nerf balls, right? This is all just fun trolling, yeah? You’re just here to have fun and not actually a serous person, correct? I just need a baseline. 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 58 minutes ago, Insipid said: Biden's numbers here for Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are lower than Clinton's, but unlike her, he won those states. None of this shit is set in stone or sets a precendent or anything. I'm not going to discount that any of it is true, but RCP is prone to swings in their averages because of their age-out method of averaging polls and their treating all polls evenly regardless of quality. Here's some excerpts from Split-Ticket explaining their own methodology by directly contrasting with RCP: Quote In a nutshell, our aggregates control for poll age, pollster quality, population, sample size, and house effects. We accept each poll that FiveThirtyEight collects, except for those from ActiVote and Trafalgar, and we default to the full-field matchup if a pollster polls both the full-field and the head-to-head versions of the race. Let’s break down the reasons for each factor that we control for. It’s obvious that a poll taken today will be more representative of the current state of play than a poll taken two months ago. What is less obvious is how to handle the impact of poll age. Some agencies (like RealClearPolitics) handle this by including all polls, weighted equally, within a certain window, and then dropping them once that window passes. In our opinion, this is not a good idea, and it leads to artificial jumps and drops caused by outliers leaving averages. These shifts are induced purely by polls abruptly “dropping out” of a window, which doesn’t reflect reality, because it signals movement to readers even when there has been none. ... This is very much a design choice, and we want to stress that there are no “right” answers. In our opinion, this yields a polling average that is inoculated against low-quality pollsters “flooding the zone” (like what we saw in 2022, especially at the state level), and reflects the high-quality data when we have it. Of course, pollster quality is not a guarantee of accuracy — as readers may remember, 2020 saw agencies like Trafalgar and Rasmussen succeed. But in 2022, these were some of the worst pollsters around, and they also yielded hilariously bad estimates across the board. In general, the data shows that agencies that use high-quality data with robust methodologies have empirically performed better over a long period of time, and for that reason, we place more trust in them. https://split-ticket.org/2024/09/05/our-2024-polling-aggregators-and-how-they-work/ 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said: Joe, or maybe more likely, Jill Biden is doing whatever they can to sabotage the Harris campaign. If I didn't know better, I would have sworn that you hate women, what with all this Lady MacBeth bullshit. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 56 minutes ago, SwimOdin said: @Master-Debater131 you can’t possibly believe Trump does any media interviews beyond the softest of soft nerf balls, right? This is all just fun trolling, yeah? You’re just here to have fun and not actually a serous person, correct? I just need a baseline. Take your IQ and convert to Celsius. You'll have an easier time understanding how MD thinks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 "The truth of the election is NOT what the polls really say, but rather what I want the polls to be." 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, Belize said: "The truth of the election is NOT what the polls really say, but rather what I want the polls to be." That honestly feels like the media. Every time polls show Harris getting a sustainable lead, at least five articles come out going “WELL ACTSHUTALLY” as if they’re terrified no one will watch the news if the election isn’t a horse race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 8 minutes ago, Belize said: "The truth of the election is NOT what the polls really say, but rather what I want the polls to be." 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, Jman said: That honestly feels like the media. Every time polls show Harris getting a sustainable lead, at least five articles come out going “WELL ACTSHUTALLY” as if they’re terrified no one will watch the news if the election isn’t a horse race. It's worth mentioning that all the discussions about polls at this point in the election cycle rarely offer any insight into the people behind the poll numbers, by necessity of course. There's no reason to think that Trump is going to make meaningful inroads into the electorate, so any discussion is going to be less about Trump and more about Harris, and, because that is what's driving the fascination with the polls, it's a situation where analysis of the poll numbers can't catch up to real-time appraisal of Harris. Polling is probably more single dimensional than MD is implying, meaning numbers that show any kind of favoritism toward Trump, whether its an outright advantage or a narrow gap, are reflecting the ongoing process of getting comfortable with Harris. It's also worth noting that, at this point, few people will admit to being undecided even thought they essentially are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
André Toulon Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I actually saw some Harris campaign ads on TV. Makes me feel better because dicknugget is always on the TV for some reason...finally seeing that she's being shoved down throats is comforting 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, André Toulon said: I actually saw some Harris campaign ads on TV. Makes me feel better because dicknugget is always on the TV for some reason...finally seeing that she's being shoved down throats is comforting She should be appearing more often. I’m expecting a pretty sustained blitz. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, Jman said: She should be appearing more often. I’m expecting a pretty sustained blitz. Kamala: *raises $1 billion* MD: Kamala's campaign is imploding!!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katt_goddess Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 9 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said: Joe, or maybe more likely, Jill Biden is doing whatever they can to sabotage the Harris campaign. This is the 2nd time in a week where Harris has gone out to do an major, well major for her, event and Biden counter programs her at the same exact time. This time it was when she went on The View. While she was doing that Biden was doing his own press event talking about preparing for Hurricane Milton. Biden also went a step further this time and flatly rejected the Harris talking point that DeSantis was refusing to coordinate with the White House. Turns out that not only is that not true, its hilariously wrong. DeSantis and the Biden Admin have been in pretty constant communication leading up to the hurricane. Biden even praised DeSantis for his preparedness before the storm. Biden really does hate Harris. It's not 'counter programming' if there's a damn national emergency happening at the same damn time as some talk show. You honestly act like he should have just sat back and waited - 'oh yeah, The View is currently on. I guess letting people know about the hurricane and warning them about blatantly dangerous lies can wait an hour for that'. If THAT had happened, you'd be in here claiming he actively wants people to suffer in the storms. Harris is on a talk show doing that 'interview' thing that you were bitching about how she doesn't do those because she is a presidential candidate. Biden was on tv as the current President trying to get people to stop listening to the 80 year-old f*ckwit running for Dictator's misinformation campaign DURING A FRICKING NATIONAL EMERGENCY. And DeSantis was taking phone calls from the WH directly but was absolutely dismissing any calls originating from Harris specifically because he's a self-important shithead. If, as is suddenly the MAGAt narrative, the VP is a Very Important Person who does all the big things and passes all the legislation all by themselves which is why it's suddenly the Harris administration and she's to blame for everything [ according to the person who as president remarked on the record numerous times that he took no responsibility for anything that went wrong despite it being HIS administration ], then he should have been taking those calls. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seight Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 You're absolutely going to believe this but it turns out that the Trump Bibles were imported from China. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Basically what I know about polling from the past two presidential elections: 2016: national polling was a pretty accurate reflection of the actual popular vote, with Clinton about 2 points ahead of Trump, but in pre-election polls both candidates were frequently stuck in the mid- to low 40s. The big polling inaccuracy came in state-level polling, which almost always showed Clinton leading Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump shocked everyone by winning these due to a last-minute surge among his supporters that occurred days before Election Day. The surge occurred so late that state-level polls didn't have time to detect it. 2020: both national and state-level pre-election polls had Biden winning by a much larger margin than he did. Oftentimes the 2020 polling error was bigger than the 2016 polling errors. No one has been able to account for this error, but it's assumed the Covid pandemic and mail-in voting had something to do with it. 2024 is not going to reproduce the exact same circumstances that occurred in either 2016 or 2020 no matter wghat happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
discolé monade Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 11 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said: Joe, or maybe more likely, Jill Biden is doing whatever they can to sabotage the Harris campaign. This is the 2nd time in a week where Harris has gone out to do an major, well major for her, event and Biden counter programs her at the same exact time. This time it was when she went on The View. While she was doing that Biden was doing his own press event talking about preparing for Hurricane Milton. Biden also went a step further this time and flatly rejected the Harris talking point that DeSantis was refusing to coordinate with the White House. Turns out that not only is that not true, its hilariously wrong. DeSantis and the Biden Admin have been in pretty constant communication leading up to the hurricane. Biden even praised DeSantis for his preparedness before the storm. Biden really does hate Harris. do you have a podcast? or just the tiktok? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 6 hours ago, discolé monade said: do you have a podcast? or just the tiktok? 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doom Metal Alchemist Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 1 hour ago, naraku360 said: Butt-Ross. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 21 hours ago, Raptorpat said: https://split-ticket.org/2024/09/05/our-2024-polling-aggregators-and-how-they-work/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/9/2275763/-Major-Upset-Democrat-beats-Republican-in-Alaska-in-an-area-Trump-won-by-15?detail=emaildkre&pm_source=DKRE&pm_medium=email A Democrat in Alaska won a special election in an area Trump won by 15 points in 2020. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackrose321 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Donald Trump Says Project 2025 Author 'Coming on Board' If Elected Quote Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has said he would bring Tom Homan, a Project 2025 contributor, into his administration if he wins November's election. In a Tuesday appearance on California's KFI radio station, host John Kobylt asked Trump what plans or proposals related to immigration he had "ready to go" if elected. "You've seen Tom," the former president replied. "You've seen Tom Homan. He's coming on board." 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 19 hours ago, Jman said: She should be appearing more often. I’m expecting a pretty sustained blitz. Meanwhile enthusiasm from small donors is waning for Trump https://apnews.com/article/trump-campaign-donations-small-donors-decline-f1a6b238d15edb3f72260e4c86d2c552 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
André Toulon Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 People send millions to politicians to be on TV but wouldn't tip a door dasher 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 And... my Georgia ballot for Kamala Harris has been dropped in the mailbox. And now, we wait. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katt_goddess Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 7 hours ago, Blackrose321 said: Donald Trump Says Project 2025 Author 'Coming on Board' If Elected Princess Tinyhands - 'I don't know anything about Project 2025. It's not something that I'm about' Also Princess Tinyhands - 'Here's a list of all the people and ideas that I think are just the greatest things ever and will absolutely be a part of the New America Under Me' *list of people who wrote that 900+ manifesto of shit with a detail-less collection of buzzwords from it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PenguinBoss Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 He's a concept of a truthful person. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seight Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 7 hours ago, tsar4 said: FORMER NASCAR DRIVER DANICA PATRICK TO MODERATE JD VANCE TOWN HALL 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackrose321 Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 I did not have this on my bingo card: ‘It’s mindblowing’: US meteorologists face death threats as hurricane conspiracies surge 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwimOdin Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 The dumbest timeline. 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 https://newrepublic.com/post/187080/donald-trump-rally-fake-firefighters-lie Trump’s rallies are chock full of paid actors or cult members lying about their professions. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
discolé monade Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 plaid shirt guy = national treasure. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 Masterful gambit, sir https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/10/california-reject-musk-spacex-00183371 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 ANOTHER guy with guns by a Trump rally was arrested yesterday, but this time it was just a random supporter with an unregistered weapon. He’s since been released on bail. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katt_goddess Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 It's all about 2A until you get near a Dumpster rally. Then it's the republicans taking your guns. Funny how that works. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 A very interesting development. For the past week, the Trump campaign, the Republican Party or both have been leaking internal polls for the presidential race. It's highly unusual for internal polls to be revealed. I am *unsure* of the intent. I don't know if it's a cynical trick, so I'm not spreading the numbers. The pollsters whose names are attached to them are well-known GOP pollsters, so that might lead some credence to them. But the gist of them is they are bad for Trump. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 12 minutes ago, Belize said: Is he gonna take everyone’s food again? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 Orban threatens to withhold Ukrainian Aid to help Trump get to the White House Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
discolé monade Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 Trump Coachella Rally Attendees Were Left Stranded After Campaign Buses Left Without Them | Video 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.