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Putin: "Stick to the timeline!"


tsar4

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On 4/5/2022 at 11:38 AM, Master-Debater131 said:

Lets start with NATO.

One of Putin's clearest goals over the past 20 years has been to divide NATO and prevent its expansion. Both of these now appear to be a total failure. NATO is more united now than it has been since the end of the Cold War. Nations that had previously not been spending on their military are pumping billions into their military. Germany freaking woke up. Nice job Putin! And for expansion? Yea, that's absolutely happening. Finland and Sweden are both looking very likely to join NATO sooner than later. And there are other nations looking to speed-run a NATO membership thanks to this war. NATO is at its strongest position ever, and is only going to get stronger in the coming years and decades.

The reason these countries are suddenly starting to spend again is dependent on which countries you are talking about. The Baltic States are genuinely worried about Russia invading, Finland and Sweden (not members) are equally concerned about possible incursion. Germany, Italy, France, Denmark, Holland et al are not worried about Russian invasion nearly as much as the realization that America, upon whom they relied, is being run by a dementia-riddled vegetable and a VP who somehow manages to make even less sense than the aforementioned vegetable. All of a sudden the notion of relying on America is simply not viable, thus the increased spending. Before you cry foul, remember that when Russia invaded Georgia,

 

Chechnya, and seized Crimea, there was lack of increased military spending in response to those incursions.

On 4/5/2022 at 11:38 AM, Master-Debater131 said:

The Russian Economy.

Its done. Absolutely done. No Western company is going back to Russia anytime soon. European nations are working to cut off their energy supply from Russia as fast as possible. Thats the single biggest chunk of the Russian economy and the only thing that kept them afloat all these years. You take that away and they are screwed. China and India are going to buy, but its going to take years to build the infrastructure needed to deliver that energy to those nations. The sanctions are absolutely working as well. Russia is close to a default on its debt, and when that happens its going to be a generation before their economy recovers. The only reason the Ruble and their stock market havent failed is because of manipulation that they are doing. That manipulation wont last forever thanks to the sanctions. We dropped the equivilant of multiple nuclear bombs on the Russian economy, we are just waiting for the fallout to fully destroy it.

 So, what part of Russia exporting energy to India, China, South America, Central America etc. do I need to repeat? Yes, Western Europe is working to find new supplies, but they are still buying from Russia, even now, and buying in Rubles no less. Yes, Russia is manipulating its currency, it probably isn't good in the long term, but it isn't nearly as unsustainable and some claim. China has been manipulating its currency for decades after all. The western countries that are not doing business are being replaced by Chinese companies, which are basically providing the same products under a different name since most of the goods are made in China anyway. Russia made its dollar denomination debt payments, the next potential default wouldn't be until after the sanction exemption expires in late May. By then Russia will probably have sufficient foreign reserves from gas, coal and fertilizer sales to make it. Yes, sanctions are working to make things difficult, they are not crippling in the way the western media is presenting them.

On 4/5/2022 at 11:38 AM, Master-Debater131 said:

Putins Popularity

Yea, trust the polls from a dictatorship. I'm sure they are true.

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-approval-rating-increase-russia-1693521

"Approval numbers regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin's activities since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War have seen a steep increase in recent months, according to a new poll from independent pollster Levada.

The poll showed that approval of Putin's actions increased from 69 percent in January to 83 percent in March."

Take it with a grain of salt.

On 4/5/2022 at 11:38 AM, Master-Debater131 said:

Now for the big one, Ukraine itself.

No, Russia has not achieved its goals. Not even close. From the start their stated goal was to completely take over Ukraine and either absorb it back into Russia or set up a puppet government. Neither of those are going to happen anytime soon. Russia tried for a full blown takeover and failed. Their military has been exposed as a complete joke and its painfully clear that if Russia tried to fight any organized and modern military they would be routed. The few places where Russia had gained control they have lost it. Outside of the Donbas the Russians are being pushed back on all fronts. As for control of the Donbas, good luck with that. There is going to be a generation long insurgency in that are that is going to drain Russia of resources that it doesnt have. And thats assuming that Ukraine doesnt start to push Russia back there as well. We are arming Ukraine with some high-tech and high-power weaponry and its shredding the Russian military to pieces. The Ukrainians are far from being rendered combat ineffective. If anything they have gained strength thanks to NATO weaponry and the massive inflow of Western fighters who are joining their foreign legion. Thousands of well trained, well armed, and highly experienced fighters are joining the Ukrainians and are tearing Russia apart. The whole idea that Russia is achieving their goals is nothing more than some of the most epic goal-post shifting you will ever see. They've shifted from a stated goal of total control of Ukraine to "well, maybe just this little part here".

 

The only ones who think that Russia is actually achieving anything here are the Russian Propagandists and Tucker Carlson, but I repeat myself. Russia has failed, and the fallout from this war is going to cause Russia to suffer for decades to come. Ukraine is going to rebuild with billions of dollars from the Western world. It will likely end up in a stronger position in 10 years than they were before the war started. Russia will have nothing but the smoking ruble of its economy and an insurgency to deal with for decades.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

Plenty of relatively recent maps there. Russia has suffered setbacks and certainly is not an S tier army, but they haven't been rebuffed entirely. Ukraine getting training is good, getting heavy weapons is good (not from the U.S. I would add) and getting experienced foreign fighters to help are all positive. The issue of course is that Russia is doing much the same. Yes, our toys are cooler, but the fact is Russia simply has more. At any time Putin could decide to drop a daisy cutter on downtown Kyiv and there is damn little Ukraine could do to stop it. Putin seems to be perfectly content to have a long occupation, he has in Ossetia since 2008, he seized Crimea in 2014, and the war in Chechnya was a long grinding affair that is still somewhat ongoing. In fact, this invasion is very similar in terms of tactics to what was done in Chechnya, and Chechnya didn't win. Will this be costly to Russia in terms of casualties and resources, absolutely. Will it cripple them, probably not. Will Putin care, absolutely not.

Oh, I'm not a Russia propagandists/apologist and last I checked I wasn't Tucker Carlson either. I just don't take the western media narrative at face value. Russia has stated repeatedly that one of their strategic goals was deep water access to the Black sea, and a land bridge to that access point. They have achieved that. Is it a Pyrrhic victory, probably, but it is too early to be making blanket long-term predictions.

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4 hours ago, Ginguy said:

Germany, Italy, France, Denmark, Holland et al are not worried about Russian invasion nearly as much as the realization that America, upon whom they relied, is being run by a dementia-riddled vegetable and a VP who somehow manages to make even less sense than the aforementioned vegetable. All of a sudden the notion of relying on America is simply not viable, thus the increased spending. Before you cry foul, remember that when Russia invaded Georgia,

Now we know why you're so terrible at political advice... you think everyone else is as stupid as your base.

4 hours ago, Ginguy said:

So, what part of Russia exporting energy to India, China, South America, Central America etc. do I need to repeat? 

None of it because you qualify your own bullshit immediately afterward.  Everyone knows China manipulated the yuan for decades, but they weren't doing it prop up its value.  In fact, they were doing it to suppress its value which is a significantly different thing:  by pegging it at x amount to the US dollar, they were effectively undervaluing its worth so businesses could do international transactions at the higher valued dollar and pay for the materials and labor in the lower value yuan.  It has its pitfalls to be sure and it generally only works as long as you can keep the CPI artificially low as well... something that gets increasingly hard as foreign businesses return the favor and start trying to tap the Chinese people for their products and services.  By comparison, attempting to boost your currency's value is always a losing proposition - you can't force people to buy your coins if there is no underlying market for the products, resources or services you can provide.  Which leads to the biggest hole in your argument:

It doesn't matter who has a need for the resources Russia requires if there is no infrastructure.  India can most certainly buy their cheap oil and the West is going to be more than happy to let them, but the infrastructure to ramp up the supply in places like India or China isn't going to allow Russia to offset the loss of the European markets in anything less than a decade... and you're not getting a pipeline across the Atlantic to feed Brazil or Mexico.  China can easily adapt to changing conditions because their most important commodity is their manufacturing sector:  it severely limits how embargo can be placed at least as long as it takes to build up one's own manufacturing capabilities and its infinitely more difficult curtailing the specific products that can be embargoed because of the sheer diversity of items manufactured.  Russia has its petroleum and natural gas:  if any country refuses to allow a Russian tanker or a tanker with purposely vague manifest to dock or they simply decide to shut off a pipeline, then the product doesn't get moved and no transaction is made.

The sanctions are most definitely crippling when it matters most, in the short term.

4 hours ago, Ginguy said:

Plenty of relatively recent maps there. Russia has suffered setbacks and certainly is not an S tier army, but they haven't been rebuffed entirely. Ukraine getting training is good, getting heavy weapons is good (not from the U.S. I would add) and getting experienced foreign fighters to help are all positive. The issue of course is that Russia is doing much the same. Yes, our toys are cooler, but the fact is Russia simply has more. At any time Putin could decide to drop a daisy cutter on downtown Kyiv and there is damn little Ukraine could do to stop it. Putin seems to be perfectly content to have a long occupation, he has in Ossetia since 2008, he seized Crimea in 2014, and the war in Chechnya was a long grinding affair that is still somewhat ongoing. In fact, this invasion is very similar in terms of tactics to what was done in Chechnya, and Chechnya didn't win. Will this be costly to Russia in terms of casualties and resources, absolutely. Will it cripple them, probably not. Will Putin care, absolutely not.

All of those operations were short, which partially explains why Putin tends to rely on such violent tactics.  It appears that the Russian armed forces have had operational issues for decades, and the Russian brass relied on short active operations with heavy artillery to cover for those deficiencies.  Undoubtedly, Putin knew this and was gambling that he could get in there immediately after the Olympics and before the West had a chance to sniff out what he was doing and pull together.  No one questions the fact that he can dig in for an indefinite amount of time, but he isn't going to be able to continue active military operations for very long because that bombardment strategy only works if there is something less to salvage after the bombing is done.  He's effectively leveled any infrastructure that might be useful in connecting the Crimea to the East, and now he's damaged his own ability to even hold on to Crimea because of that.  He lost any real chance of making the Ukraine an extension of Russia when his initial operations failed, so all he can really do is turn it into a wasteland.

Edited by scoobdog
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7 hours ago, Ginguy said:

Germany, Italy, France, Denmark, Holland et al are not worried about Russian invasion nearly as much as the realization that America, upon whom they relied, is being run by a dementia-riddled vegetable and a VP who somehow manages to make even less sense than the aforementioned vegetable.

Damn, and we were so close to me maybe agreeing with him too.

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54 minutes ago, Seight said:

Damn, and we were so close to me maybe agreeing with him too.

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I wonder how big his half-chub was while he was being this nakedly disingenuous.

Also who the fuck still uses the term "Holland" for The Netherlands in 2022?

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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-clarify-next-steps-possible-nato-entry-within-weeks-foreign-minister-2022-04-07/

Finland will clarify next steps regarding a possible decision to seek NATO membership in the coming weeks, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told reporters after attending a NATO foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels on Thursday.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, opinion polls commissioned by Finnish media outlets have shown a swift U-turn in public opinion in Finland with the majority now favouring joining U.S.-led NATO.

 

The Pikachu face memes for this are obvious.  Russia has a clear goal of stopping NATO expansion, and thanks to its war in Ukraine its accelerating NATO expansion.

Depending on how the application goes, Finland could be a NATO member by the end of the year.

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20 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-clarify-next-steps-possible-nato-entry-within-weeks-foreign-minister-2022-04-07/

Finland will clarify next steps regarding a possible decision to seek NATO membership in the coming weeks, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told reporters after attending a NATO foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels on Thursday.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, opinion polls commissioned by Finnish media outlets have shown a swift U-turn in public opinion in Finland with the majority now favouring joining U.S.-led NATO.

 

The Pikachu face memes for this are obvious.  Russia has a clear goal of stopping NATO expansion, and thanks to its war in Ukraine its accelerating NATO expansion.

Depending on how the application goes, Finland could be a NATO member by the end of the year.

I really think it's more likely that Putin's stated opposition to NATO was more about him regaining influence over former Soviet satellite states and less about him actively trying to suppress NATO.  It was always a means to an end, as evidenced by the fact he went into a country that hadn't really even attempted to join prior.  On its surface it make no real sense for either Russia or China to oppose NATO unless it serves to break up a coalition with the United States (almost explicitly so in the case of China).  For China, the invasion itself was a monumental disaster because it puts them in a position where they have to defend Russia against Europe at a time when they seek to have greater influence in Europe.  None of this helps them isolate Europe from North America, which is always going to be their primary goal because Europe (particularly the more conservative former Eastern Bloc members) is a valuable piece in this game of global chess - an affluent customer that doesn't particularly want to be pushed around economically by the US.  More importantly, keeping Europe and NATO as a whole placated has the added benefit of hamstringing the US when it comes to China attempting to exert influence in its own sphere.  China gets nothing from being an enemy of NATO, and the longer Russia botches this invasion, the more likely that China is unable to extract itself from Putin's stench.  That can have disastrous effects for any aspirations China might have in expanding its control into the South China Sea or taking over Taiwan.

TL;DR - Opposition to NATO was always a means to an end for Russia and by product of other aspirations for China.

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On 3/3/2022 at 9:19 PM, Poof said:

That's the Zaporizhzhia plant that my fan works at!! I still haven't been able to get in touch with him on skype. He hasn't logged on since the invasion started :( I even posted about him before:

9-B2-C6026-E510-4001-86-C6-AB422-E975399

He wanted to buy me a console, but I already had an xbox. And you guys said I shouldn't accept it since Ukraine is a really poor country so I didn't but I did chat with him occasionally since I still appreciated the gesture. He was so nice I hope he's ok :(

This isn't my first rodeo w/fans in warzones. Sometimes they disappear for a long time then make contact again eventually. But sometimes they just disappear :( 

hahaha! i just skyped w/him he's ok and safe ! :RoboTeeth:

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47 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

That's awesome. How is he doing?

he said he was ok and safe but wouldn't say where. He said his internet is slow. He was more concerned about me since I said I was sad last time we talked which was well before the invasion. Thats the other thing about fans in warzones. Not just warzones necessarily. Any country with crazy shit going on. They never wanna talk about it. If it's so bad that it disrupts them, whenever they're undisrupted and come back online, they just wanna resume the michelle show like nothing happened

i kinda get the impression that he's still in ukraine since he doesnt wanna say where. Like if he got out as a refugee why not just say? 

Edited by Poof
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9 hours ago, PenguinBoss said:

If he's in Ukraine, wouldn't he have gotten conscripted?

He might still be there since hes an electrician at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant which is ukraines largest one. It hasn't fallen to russia. Apparently evacuees from Mariupol are fleeing to zaporizhzhia. He might still be there working, helping, or fighting, idk?

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16 hours ago, scoobdog said:

I really think it's more likely that Putin's stated opposition to NATO was more about him regaining influence over former Soviet satellite states and less about him actively trying to suppress NATO.  It was always a means to an end, as evidenced by the fact he went into a country that hadn't really even attempted to join prior.  On its surface it make no real sense for either Russia or China to oppose NATO unless it serves to break up a coalition with the United States (almost explicitly so in the case of China).  For China, the invasion itself was a monumental disaster because it puts them in a position where they have to defend Russia against Europe at a time when they seek to have greater influence in Europe.  None of this helps them isolate Europe from North America, which is always going to be their primary goal because Europe (particularly the more conservative former Eastern Bloc members) is a valuable piece in this game of global chess - an affluent customer that doesn't particularly want to be pushed around economically by the US.  More importantly, keeping Europe and NATO as a whole placated has the added benefit of hamstringing the US when it comes to China attempting to exert influence in its own sphere.  China gets nothing from being an enemy of NATO, and the longer Russia botches this invasion, the more likely that China is unable to extract itself from Putin's stench.  That can have disastrous effects for any aspirations China might have in expanding its control into the South China Sea or taking over Taiwan.

TL;DR - Opposition to NATO was always a means to an end for Russia and by product of other aspirations for China.

I think its a combination. He wants to regain control over former soviet states, but he also has been working to split NATO. All the Russian propaganda and disinformation in the US was working right up until he attacked. Opinions of NATO were pretty low, now they are sky high. There used to be a fairly visible split between the US and other NATO nations, particularly Germany. That split is basically gone. Sure, Germany may be slow to uptake some sanctions, but they are absolutely moving in a pro-NATO and anti-Russia direction.

 

For China, I totally agree.  This has been a disaster for them. It also proves to China that the entire Western world can rally around a cause when a larger nation invades a smaller one. You have to know that they have watched how the West reacted and realized what would happen if they try and invade Taiwan. Not to mention that Taiwan is a far more complex target military speaking than Ukraine. Cant just drive tanks across the ocean. Russia is going to turn into a client state of China from this, but that also hurts China. Russia is going to be a net-drain on anyone they interact with for the near and medium term future.

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China isn't going to make Russia a "client state" - they have absolutely no need for Russia besides whatever resources they can get from them on the cheap.  The partnership really only serves the greater purpose of uniting against the United States.

In the long run, China will be fine; they've done just enough nothing in this conflict to recover most of their previous contacts once the quagmire becomes perpetual background noise.  It might have killed their more adventurous goals in the near term, but it also shifted much of the global ire toward Putin and Russia.  Furthermore, Xi knows that there is plenty of opportunity in the vacuum of left by Putin's eventual collapse not just in the West but also in the Near East where there are far more viable partners to build an effective coalition.  All of this get Xi to this summer not just unscathed but in a relatively stronger position without even needing to do something as drastic as start any special operations.

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13 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/11/investing/russia-default-sp/index.html

 

Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt, says S&P

 

Now is when the sanctions really start to bite.  Common use items that people got used to having are about to become very scarce.

Beat me to it.  Yeah, things are about to go south economically for Russia very quickly.

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3 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

We all knew this was coming.  Sure sounds like the Russians are now using chemical weapons in places where they haven't had a whole lot of luck.

Maybe don't take everything any given Azov Nazi says at face value? Because they're fucking Nazis?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-says-russian-forces-could-use-chemical-weapons-2022-04-11/

Unconfirmed, and after all that we've seen Zelensky like about only to later be proven dishonest, I think if there were even a chance it was true he would already be saying it happened. But "we'll see" I guess! There's only nuclear war at stake, the important thing is that rightwing American warmongers like you are having fun splashing shit water around. 

Edited by Nablonsky
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10 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Lots of reports coming out that the Russian army has been taking souvenirs, from Chernobyl.

 

Yeaaaaa..........

Cue up Alice Cooper's "Nuclear Infected"

Edit: ...and Modern English "I Melt With You".

Edited by tsar4
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1 hour ago, Ginguy said:

The only one they'll talk about is the most tame video of Ukranians executing a single wounded dying Russian, all the other much more horrific videos just exist in this semi permanent stasis as ""unverified"" because they're inconvenient right now. 

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8 minutes ago, stilgar said:

Ukrainians do war crimes: nabs won't shut the fuck up about how evil they are.

Russians do war crimes: nabs says it was the Ukrainians who did it or the US.

Ukranians do war crimes - zero mention of their existence by anyone in this thread. 

The fakest allegations about "possible, unconfirmed reports" indicating Russia may be using chemical weapons - OMG WHEN WILL THE MADNESS STOP

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3 hours ago, Nablonsky said:

The only one they'll talk about is the most tame video of Ukranians executing a single wounded dying Russian, all the other much more horrific videos just exist in this semi permanent stasis as ""unverified"" because they're inconvenient right now. 

The BBC article specifically references, and generally verifies, the incident in which several Russian POWs were allegedly (I haven't seen the video so I will not state that with certainty) shot, some of which were bound and/or hooded. There is an article from the Guardian which addresses the incident where a single wounded Russian soldier was shot, but since that article contains video, edited but still there, I opted not to link it due to the somewhat nebulous nature of the rules regarding such content.

 

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47 minutes ago, Ginguy said:

The BBC article specifically references, and generally verifies, the incident in which several Russian POWs were allegedly (I haven't seen the video so I will not state that with certainty) shot, some of which were bound and/or hooded. There is an article from the Guardian which addresses the incident where a single wounded Russian soldier was shot, but since that article contains video, edited but still there, I opted not to link it due to the somewhat nebulous nature of the rules regarding such content.

 

There are many more videos than just these circulating online. It is not comparable, the hesitation and slow walking and constant over-qualifying and tempered language and general lack of coverage in MSM of war crimes committed by Ukranians* vs the volume of obvious fanfiction and desperate lies and propaganda coming out of Ukraine which our war hungry media broadcasts and trumpets largely uncritically, with little subsequent coverage of these propaganda stories having been quickly proven false. 

*and the US, and Israel, and Saudi Arabia, etc etc. Everyone sees how this works. 

Edited by Nablonsky
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