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2022 Midterms: Oh god, not again


Master-Debater131

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8 minutes ago, bnmjy said:

So I'm part of the tin foil brigade because I've become disillusioned with the system? Sorry that you find my sentiments that offensive. 🙄

 

Na, thinking Snopes is a Soros fronted whatever would make you a member. 

Disillusionment is just the step before acceptance. Politics is depressing if you don't accept that democracy is never going to allow for you to get everything you want. That's just how it is.

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A lot of the disillusionment with Biden comes from a fundamental misreading of his election. He was elected on 3 main things. 1. Not Trump. 2. A return to normal politics. 3. Stop Covid.  Outside of being Not Trump the other two havent really worked as planned. He ran on, and won, largely as a candidate who was going to return us to normal, stop the hyperbolic BS from the WH, and get us back to a point where when you woke up you didnt have to worry that POTUS started WW3 on Twitter. The fact that he  was given the smallest ruling majorities in Congress of any new President shows just how much people wanted "normal", not some massive leftward shift.

When he won his activist base pushed him hard-left and started pushing things that no one wanted and had no realistic chance of passing. He didnt win by promising to usher in some sort of new progressive regime, yet thats immediately what he tried to do when he got into the WH. The idea that he was going to be the next FDR and massively expand the scope and reach of government was always doomed to fail, yet that was the messaging they pushed. Single-Payer, a federal takeover of elections, massive expansion of government programs, and things like the green new deal were never going to get passed in a House and Senate as evenly divided as it is.

Anyone who stepped back and objectively looked at the political landscape would have realized that. But thats not what happened because partisans dont do that. Instead they ate up the messaging thinking that there was this massive transformation on the way, when the reality was that that was never going to happen.

So now Biden has seen his numbers collapse because the people in the middle who got him elected are abandoning him in droves because he hasnt really stopped Covid like he promised and he swung hard-left on legislative issues while his activist base is softening because they feel betrayed. Biden fell into a trap of his own making where he started to over promise on things he never could have delivered. That happens frequently to Presidents, "Mexico will pay for the wall!", and sets up November to be a horrible night for Democrats all because he couldnt objectively look at the political landscape when he was inaugurated.

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15 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

A lot of the disillusionment with Biden comes from a fundamental misreading of his election.

No, a lot of the disillusionment stems from the great resignation, which wasn't happening in 2020. There's quite an irony that many of the services Trump provided had ended under Biden's administration . . . and this makes for a good argument why Trump was better for the working class American. But that would mean Republicans would have to indirectly advocate for social services.

Damn, I just love the cognitive dissonance this is all causing.

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37 minutes ago, bnmjy said:

No, a lot of the disillusionment stems from the great resignation, which wasn't happening in 2020. There's quite an irony that many of the services Trump provided had ended under Biden's administration . . . and this makes for a good argument why Trump was better for the working class American. But that would mean Republicans would have to indirectly advocate for social services.

Damn, I just love the cognitive dissonance this is all causing.

The Great Resignation doent really have anything to do with Biden. Biden cant control where people work. The Great Resignation is all about pent up demand for new jobs after people didnt change jobs during Covid and a re-balancing of power between Employer and Employee. Covid has had a far bigger impact on employment trends than anything Biden has tried.

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5 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

The Great Resignation doent really have anything to do with Biden. Biden cant control where people work. The Great Resignation is all about pent up demand for new jobs after people didnt change jobs during Covid and a re-balancing of power between Employer and Employee. Covid has had a far bigger impact on employment trends than anything Biden has tried.

I mean his response to it. I know it has more to do with the pandemic. Like I mentioned before, many PPP loans have been forgiven without a second thought, many of the businesses being able to pay back. But student loans? No, people have to pay those back while facing job opportunities with stagnant wages. And you consider this simple remedy government overreach or extreme leftism (it doesn't have to be completely absolved, btw).

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4 hours ago, bnmjy said:

I mean his response to it. I know it has more to do with the pandemic. Like I mentioned before, many PPP loans have been forgiven without a second thought, many of the businesses being able to pay back. But student loans? No, people have to pay those back while facing job opportunities with stagnant wages. And you consider this simple remedy government overreach or extreme leftism (it doesn't have to be completely absolved, btw).

did all student debtors really vote for biden for student loan forgiveness??

whilst everybody simultaneously dunking on nabs for being about a couple thousand in stimulus?

at least with stimulus I'd get something too. Literally the only thing I'm proud of myself for on a financial level is having no debt. I paid for the one semester I did w/my restaurant jobs before dropping out (wasnt even camming yet). If I knew it was gonna literally be free, I wouldve gotten a fucking loan and gone. Maybe I wouldve never even started camming and I'd just have stayed in school. Esp since I wouldnt have had to be working to pay tuition and rent while going if i got a loan.

like you went to college. you got the education. You still have that... If they really forgave everybody's student debt without giving me free tuition or like at least $35,000 direct cash, I'd seriously just go back to crime and rob tf out of ppl until it evened out. Esp if I could figure out who got loans forgiven then rob them specifically. Bc honestly everyone who is on about student debt is way worse than nabs wanting more stimulus.

I'm not ignoring how PPP has absolutely been a corruption smorgasbord, but that doesn't mean student loan forgiveness is even close to fair. For it to actually be fair, you need a time machine to give me a payout or a free higher education like 15 years ago. That money now isn't equivalent to how it couldve changed my life back then.

Plus fuck my story there's people who went 4 years, couldnt get a good job, but still paid off their loans working a shitty job without a good salary.

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16 minutes ago, Poof said:

did all student debtors really vote for biden for student loan forgiveness??

whilst everybody simultaneously dunking on nabs for being about a couple thousand in stimulus?

at least with stimulus I'd get something too. Literally the only thing I'm proud of myself for on a financial level is having no debt. I paid for the one semester I did w/my restaurant jobs before dropping out (wasnt even camming yet). If I knew it was gonna literally be free, I wouldve gotten a fucking loan and gone. Maybe I wouldve never even started camming and I'd just have stayed in school. Esp since I wouldnt have had to be working to pay tuition and rent while going if i got a loan.

like you went to college. you got the education. You still have that... If they really forgave everybody's student debt without giving me free tuition or like at least $35,000 direct cash, I'd seriously just go back to crime and rob tf out of ppl until it evened out. Esp if I could figure out who got loans forgiven then rob them specifically. Bc honestly everyone who is on about student debt is way worse than nabs wanting more stimulus.

I'm not ignoring how PPP has absolutely been a corruption smorgasbord, but that doesn't mean student loan forgiveness is even close to fair. For it to actually be fair, you need a time machine to give me a payout or a free higher education like 15 years ago. That money now isn't equivalent to how it couldve changed my life back then.

Plus fuck my story there's people who went 4 years, couldnt get a good job, but still paid off their loans working a shitty job without a good salary.

No, they didn't vote for him for that. I'm just making bullshit arguments as they come along. This is politics.

Personally, I'm not even that much in student loan debt, and I can easily pay it all off. I feel bad for all the people who went to school and are saddled with that debt for the rest of their lives. I think these people outnumber those who work crappy jobs and eventually pay it all off.

Edit: Also fairness isn't always just about what is beneficial to oneself. I am also worried about future generations in regards to financial security.

Edited by bnmjy
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3 minutes ago, bnmjy said:

No, they didn't vote for him for that. I'm just making bullshit arguments as they come along. This is politics.

Personally, I'm not even that much in student loan debt, and I can easily pay it all off. I feel bad for all the people who went to school and are saddled with that debt for the rest of their lives. I think these people outnumber those who work crappy jobs and eventually pay it all off.

I really don't any more or less than anyone else in debt for anything. Like thinking back to those days all my friends all smug and getting treated like they're gonna save the damn planet bc "I'm a student/studying" it's so hilarious to me that little did we know these same people are gonna take all that respect, the education, do nothing, then want to pretend none of it ever happened.

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17 minutes ago, rpgamer said:

That's just the risk lenders take when they give out money. Maybe if they were smarter about who they were giving money to, this wouldn't be a problem.

And it’s just the risk society will take if it doesn’t match the students’ payout w/a donation to the Poof-Not-Robbing-You Fund

I might sit out on a few election cycles as well. Or I could get caught and become a nonvoter as a felon then you’ve lost me forever

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Manchin Watch 2022 is back on!

 

Lots of rumors swirling this morning that if Schumer goes ahead with a vote today on blowing up the filibuster then Manchin will take to the floor and deliver a speech calling out the hypocrisy of the move and announcing that he will leave the Democratic party.

 

The vote is scheduled for 6:30 EST, so stay tune for Manchin Watch to end at roughly 7 EST when the rumors inevitably turn out to be false.

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  Manchin will lay low, vote "no" on the change and keep his mouth shut, letting Sinema take all the heat since she is already on record having made the "hypocrisy" speech. Manchin will not leave the Democrat party since that would take away his biggest bargaining chip/threat.

 

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4 hours ago, Ginguy said:

  Manchin will lay low, vote "no" on the change and keep his mouth shut, letting Sinema take all the heat since she is already on record having made the "hypocrisy" speech. Manchin will not leave the Democrat party since that would take away his biggest bargaining chip/threat.

 

How much does it suck that the GOP doesn't want Manchin either?

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17 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Manchins problem is that hes too much of a Centrist for the Democrats, and doesnt suck enough MAGA cock to be in the GOP.

Manchin's problem is he's a centrist just to be a centrist.  He has no real leverage in the Senate:  he's not wanted by the GOP, he has no ideological connection to the party he's in, the Democrats,  and he has absolutely no acumen for deal making.  He and Sinema are fucking useless twits who offer nothing other than a vote.

The democrats have worked with centrists before, and sometimes they have success.  The likes of Susan Collins have at least some ability to negotiate behind closed doors with both parties and, while working with them can be problematic, at least they have enough skill to keep conversations open to both paths.  Manchin has done absolutely nothing other than string Democrats far enough along that he can effectively squelch the BBA because it's bad for his coal business.  He hasn't reached out to any Republicans, he hasn't offered a constructive counter proposal to the Democrats that would at least give them a framework.  He's even ignored his supposed constituents in the coal miner's union.

For all intents and purposes, Manchin is running out the clock on his political career.

Edited by scoobdog
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6 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

Manchin's problem is he's a centrist just to be a centrist.  He has no real leverage in the Senate:  he's not wanted by the GOP, he has no ideological connection to the party he's in, the Democrats,  and he has absolutely no acumen for deal making.  He and Sinema are fucking useless twits who offer nothing other than a vote.

The democrats have worked with centrists before, and sometimes they have success.  The likes of Susan Collins have at least some ability to negotiate behind closed doors with both parties and, while working with them can be problematic, at least they have enough skill to keep conversations open to both paths.  Manchin has done absolutely nothing other than string Democrats far enough along that he can effectively squelch the BBA because it's bad for his coal business.  He hasn't reached out to any Republicans, he hasn't offered a constructive counter proposal to the Democrats that would at least give them a framework.  He's even ignored his supposed constituents in the coal miner's union.

For all intents and purposes, Manchin is running out the clock on his political career.

Manchin isnt running out the clock on anything.  Hes the only possible Democrat who can win in what is arguable the more Republican state in the country. If he diesnt run, that seat flips GOP no matter who the candidate is. He knows this. He also is rumored to want to run for Governor again. He cant do that if he turns hard left. Hes a Centrist because those policies are actually popular in his state.

 

And as much as the Left likes to say hes moving goalposts and being dishonest, he really isnt. Hes been pretty clear from the start on what he will and will not vote for. Its not his fault that people think 1.8 Trillion actually means 5 or more trillion. Or that his repeated statements on refusing to nuke the filibuster somehow means hes actually going to nuke the filibuster.  Hes been very consistent, its just that people are either willfully ignoring what he is saying or outright refusing to believe that his repeated statements are his actual position.

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He's been anything other than clear, but that's beside the point.  Manchin exists solely to be a Democtratic vote, and that's anathemic to the role he's attempted to carve out for himself in the majority.  If he's so concerned with getting consensus from moderates on the other side of the aisle, why isn't he the one leading the charge to get them?  The same goes for Sinema.   They're great espousing ideals for moderation, but neither has done any of the work or, at the very least, had anything to show for whatever effort they might have made.

Whatever you might feel about his principles, he's objectively an ineffective Senator and the end result is that he's going to lose a reelection.  That's what I mean by "running out the clock."  He got to be in his position as centrist because of the potential he had for bridging a gap between parties, and, when the time came for him to realize that potential, he ended up doing nothing.  Progressives would likely be unhappy with him no matter what he does, but now the blue collar people that got him to where he's at are going to be unhappy with him too and Republicans are happy enough to put their own "moderate" candidate who says the right things and voted up and down party lines.

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He has been talking to them. Hes been trying to work on voting laws as well as ECA reform. ECA reform is the obvious way to secure elections and it has some good bi-partisan support. Now that the federal election takeover is dead hes already pivoting to ECA reform.

 

Hes not going to lose reelection. He is an institution in WV and is still a very popular figure there. Progressives in WV are a joke and have little to no power there at all and the idea that hes losing blue collar people is just laughable. Out of everyone in the Senate he may be the one with the best understanding of what the people are concerned about and want. It isnt some massive leftward swing, it isnt expanding government, it isnt some massive federal takeover of elections, it isnt blowing up the filibuster. Its inflation and Covid-19. He's keyed on those points multiple times going back to even before the infrastructure bill passed. Hes been very consistent about these points. Those two items consistently rank among the top concerns of everyone. its not his fault that the rest of his party is so out of touch with what people want that they have convinced themselves that everyone but them is wrong.

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9 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

He has been talking to them. Hes been trying to work on voting laws as well as ECA reform. ECA reform is the obvious way to secure elections and it has some good bi-partisan support. Now that the federal election takeover is dead hes already pivoting to ECA reform.

Ok, so what evidence of it do we have?  I didn’t see any Republicans acknowledging any conversations.  To be fair, I wouldn’t expect them to because they’re not interested in anything other than stymying legislation drafted by the other party.  But I also don’t see reports of him or Sinema holding meetings with more moderate members of the GOP.

I was being tongue-in-cheek with the clock comment, but I stand by it.  Manchin’s days as a sitting senator have a definite expiration now.  No Democrat can likely challenge him, of course, but the GOP will. He’s got almost nothing to show for the outsized influence he wielded this session, and that gives the Republicans more than enough opening with a candidate that’s more in line with WV’s strong conservative leaning.

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WV is not actually strongly conservative. They’re an interesting breed of rural state type conservative with a unique set of progressive ideologies mixed in. But if you aren’t aware of that, Manchin seems like a really bizarre representative.

To give you an idea, if I had to choose, I’d rather spend the rest of my live in WV than in southwest ohio.

It’s only the last 20 years that it’s gone consistently red and I’m 100% convinced it’s bc of anti-coal policy which overshadows everything else to them. I know I’ve posted before about democrats dropping the ball w/WV for not promising something good in return for going after coal.

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20 hours ago, scoobdog said:

How much does it suck that the GOP doesn't want Manchin either?

If Manchin leaves the Dems the GOP get all the Committee Chairs. Even if Manchin doesn't caucus with the Dems or the GOP the numbers still switch enough to give the Turtle his precious....

Sucks to be the party reliant on people you routinely threaten and harass to maintain your tenuous grip on power.

 

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7 minutes ago, Ginguy said:

Sucks to be the party reliant on people you routinely threaten and harass to maintain your tenuous grip on power.

Yeah, it does suck to have a voting base that cares and wants their leadership to actually do things other than bitch and moan about "the gays".

It's so much easier to be a Republican.

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2 hours ago, Poof said:

WV is not actually strongly conservative. They’re an interesting breed of rural state type conservative with a unique set of progressive ideologies mixed in. But if you aren’t aware of that, Manchin seems like a really bizarre representative.

To give you an idea, if I had to choose, I’d rather spend the rest of my live in WV than in southwest ohio.

It’s only the last 20 years that it’s gone consistently red and I’m 100% convinced it’s bc of anti-coal policy which overshadows everything else to them. I know I’ve posted before about democrats dropping the ball w/WV for not promising something good in return for going after coal.

This.

The suggestion that Manchin is fucking up has nothing to do with him not bending to the knee of progressives, though the progressives are predictable the most flustered by him.  Everyone knew from the beginning he was a blue dog and what Poof says is the reason why:  it's a blue collar constituency that is transitioning out of an industry that has been dying a slow death for a very long time.  Like most rural places, it's going to lean toward strong social conservatives, and, at the same time, its industrially based economy necessitates a more pragmatic slant when it comes to issues with economic reform.  As such, West Virginians might be big on tax reform and subsidies (particularly the redevelopment type), but they also are dependent on entitlement progams and have a special interest in labor reform, hallmarks of communities with large working middle class and both big priorities for Democrats.  Naturally, Manchin understands this more than anyone because of his close personal ties to the coal industry, and it does put him in a very tenuous position.

The problem is that the BBA is a huge opportunity to deliver on the latter for Manchin's voters.  Talking about things like long term inflation are important, but they also typically hit like a dull thud to voters who are struggling to get jobs and are already in need of assistance to survive.  The fact he chose to bring up inflation as an issue about the size of the bill is not going to win him support of those blue collar voters, nor is his conspicuous silence on what to do about the expiring coal subsidies.  More important than that is that he didn't use his position of power to  offer his own alternative to the BBA that specifically addressed his voters' concerns.  All he did was act as a check for other people's agendas.  It's a whole lot of "No, we can't do that," and practically none of "We need to do this instead."

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2 hours ago, Ginguy said:

If Manchin leaves the Dems the GOP get all the Committee Chairs. Even if Manchin doesn't caucus with the Dems or the GOP the numbers still switch enough to give the Turtle his precious....

Sucks to be the party reliant on people you routinely threaten and harass to maintain your tenuous grip on power.

 

Funny, but Manchin caucusing with the GOP is also highly unlikely because the GOP isn't interested in anything that benefits Manchin's core voting block.  He's just going to get replaced by a Republican.

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3 hours ago, Ginguy said:

 

Sucks to be the party reliant on people you routinely threaten and harass to maintain your tenuous grip on power.

 

The Right does it too, but since conservatives are naturally submissive to perceived higher powers due to the authoritarian parental upbringing, their kneejerk reaction is to fall in line when they hear the crack of the whip.

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Judge Jackson from the DC circuit is the current front-runner. She got Collins, Murkowski and Grahamnesty in her last confirmation hearing, as well as clerking for Justice Breyer, and she checks the campaign promise box Sleepy Joe made.

 

So, Rasmussen released a poll that showed 58% of likely voters at least somewhat agree that "the media is truly the enemy of the people".

That is entirely self inflicted on the part of the media.

 

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17 minutes ago, Ginguy said:

So, Rasmussen released a poll that showed 58% of likely voters at least somewhat agree that "the media is truly the enemy of the people".

That is entirely self inflicted on the part of the media.

No it isn't you little turd and you know it.

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45 minutes ago, Ginguy said:

So, Rasmussen released a poll that showed 58% of likely voters at least somewhat agree that "the media is truly the enemy of the people".

That is entirely self inflicted on the part of the media.

 

Only 58% of idiots think the media is the problem?  That sounds like an improvement to me.

... and yes, Fox News does have only itself to blame for this.

Edited by scoobdog
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9 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

 

Not overly surprised. The real question is just what kind of nominee can get approved in a 50-50 Senate. If Dems hold the line they can get anyone, but theres no guarantee that will happen.

"This will be my golden moment" -Mitch McConnell in the beginning stages of a plan to convince America that a President with 35.5 months left in his term is a "Lame Duck" and shouldn't appoint a new justice

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4 minutes ago, Seight said:

"This will be my golden moment" -Mitch McConnell in the beginning stages of a plan to convince America that a President with 35.5 months left in his term is a "Lame Duck" and shouldn't appoint a new justice

I mean, he is going to try.  He's completely free of any pride at this point.

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  • 2 months later...

Dems are never winning again, it's time to move on to something else if we actually want to change this country into anything other than the blood guzzling monster machine it's always been and going to be with these as our only choices at the voting booth. Either vote for something else or do something besides voting, otherwise may as well just give up all hope now. 

 

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Edited by Gray Charles
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https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3843

"While 33 percent of Americans approve of the way President Biden is handling his job, 54 percent disapprove with 13 percent not offering an opinion. Biden's 33 percent job approval ties the low that he received in a Quinnipiac University poll on January 12, 2022 when his job approval rating was a negative 33 - 53 percent.

In today's poll, Democrats approve (76 - 12 percent) of Biden's job performance, while independents disapprove (56 - 26 percent) and Republicans disapprove (94 - 3 percent)."

 

If this isnt an outlier, and if these numbers hold, then the Democrats are in deep deep trouble this November. All signs are pointing to a Red Wave, but with numbers like this it could be a Red Tsunami. No Democrat in an even remotely competitive race can survive these kind of overall numbers.

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Bet they could go for $2.50 gas, 2% inflation, no wars, food on the shelves and a mean tweet about now....

I have noticed a distinct change in tone however; it has shifted from "I warned you this would happen." to "You voted for this, you deserve it." The anger inherent in that is not a good sign imo.

 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Ginguy said:

Bet they could go for $2.50 gas, 2% inflation, no wars, food on the shelves and a mean tweet about now....

I have noticed a distinct change in tone however; it has shifted from "I warned you this would happen." to "You voted for this, you deserve it." The anger inherent in that is not a good sign imo.

Lol.  "$2.50" gas and "a mean tweet".  I'm sure Putin agrees one hundred thousand percent.

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