2022 Midterms: Oh god, not again

[Poofy]

Spoiler

 

[naraku360]

On 9/7/2022 at 5:36 AM, SwimModSponges said:

Dr. Oz's daughters don't want to have sex with him due to his smell.

[Master-Debater131]

Keep an eye out for a potentially big swing in the Generic Ballot as pollsters start to switch from Registered Voters to Likely Voters.  In 3 out of the 4 that have switched to this model the GOP have a lead, in a few cases a big lead.

Most pollsters start to switch to LV models right about this time during election cycles. If the GOP regain a substantial lead on the Generic Ballot question that will be why.

[Raptorpat]

Then the question becomes "are pollsters quantifying the right 'likely' voters?"

We've seen a few recent cycles where Trump-leaning voters were seriously undercounted. There's the possibility they haven't yet figured out how to account for that, or that they overcompensate and undercount the other side.

[Master-Debater131]

44 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

Then the question becomes "are pollsters quantifying the right 'likely' voters?"

We've seen a few recent cycles where Trump-leaning voters were seriously undercounted. There's the possibility they haven't yet figured out how to account for that, or that they overcompensate and undercount the other side.

Its not just Trump voters who havent responded, its huge swaths of the GOP voter base refusing to participate in the polls. Trasfalger has figured out an innovative way to capture this by asking them who they are voting for, then then asking who they think their neighbors are voting for. This has made them a bit more accurate than others.

I suspect that even now the GOP vote is being under counted. The relationship between the GOP and media/pollsters is poisoned beyond repair. Theres also the general problem of polls calling only landlines when a lot of people, including myself, got rid of them years ago.

Modern polling is flawed, but it does give us at least some insight into what is going to happen.

[Sawdy]

[discolé monade]

i'm super excited to work the polls.

[Master-Debater131]

2 minutes ago, discolé monade said:

i'm super excited to work the polls.

[Raptorpat]

2 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Its not just Trump voters who havent responded, its huge swaths of the GOP voter base refusing to participate in the polls. Trasfalger has figured out an innovative way to capture this by asking them who they are voting for, then then asking who they think their neighbors are voting for. This has made them a bit more accurate than others.

I suspect that even now the GOP vote is being under counted. The relationship between the GOP and media/pollsters is poisoned beyond repair. Theres also the general problem of polls calling only landlines when a lot of people, including myself, got rid of them years ago.

Modern polling is flawed, but it does give us at least some insight into what is going to happen.

I guess what I'm saying is that there could be one more GOP undercount, but it could go in the other direction. I don't believe anyone credibly predicted the Kansas referendum, intentionally scheduled alongside a competitive GOP primary, to absolutely blow out in the other direction. It's not so much how many people answer the polls so much as how well the form can predict what the likely voter cocktail will be.

[discolé monade]

has anyone heard of Project SAVE, being thrown around by the fringe GOP?

(not the PS of atlanta~childrens healthcare)

[katt_goddess]

2 hours ago, discolé monade said:

has anyone heard of Project SAVE, being thrown around by the fringe GOP?

(not the PS of atlanta~childrens healthcare)

Is that about the whole 'integrity of the republican party' thing where only true republicans should be allowed to vote for their candidates in primaries so that only true republican candidates will be on the ballot?

While I can agree with the idea in principle [ actual voters of that party should be the ones having the say for who will represent their party and not just anyone who wanders in off the street that meets voting legibility ] it's pushed by the same people who like to have closed door meetings on public dime and that actively kick out anyone even within their own so-called party from these meetings that might disagree with them or tell the media about what they are actually talking about in the meetings. There's a group of them around here that are constantly pulling that crap. When they start squabbling about true republicans, it's like seeing two asswipes arguing over who flies Nazi colors better. 

[discolé monade]

31 minutes ago, katt_goddess said:

Is that about the whole 'integrity of the republican party' thing where only true republicans should be allowed to vote for their candidates in primaries so that only true republican candidates will be on the ballot?

While I can agree with the idea in principle [ actual voters of that party should be the ones having the say for who will represent their party and not just anyone who wanders in off the street that meets voting legibility ] it's pushed by the same people who like to have closed door meetings on public dime and that actively kick out anyone even within their own so-called party from these meetings that might disagree with them or tell the media about what they are actually talking about in the meetings. There's a group of them around here that are constantly pulling that crap. When they start squabbling about true republicans, it's like seeing two asswipes arguing over who flies Nazi colors better. 

i'm not sure. 

 that seems like that would be about right though. 

[SwimModSponges]

That's one of the few positive things about fascism, it eats itself.

[SwimOdin]

It’s embarrassing that this is even a race, let alone close! This man would bring unprecedented levels of incompetence to the senate, and that’s saying something.

 

 

[Sawdy]

12 minutes ago, SwimOdin said:

It’s embarrassing that this is even a race, let alone close! This man would bring unprecedented levels of incompetence to the senate, and that’s saying something.

 

 

Fetterman wins… hopefully he just hulk smashes in the senate… if Oz wins…. Well, pop the popcorn and buckle up

[discolé monade]

oh georgia.

[Seight]

12 hours ago, SwimOdin said:

It’s embarrassing that this is even a race, let alone close! This man would bring unprecedented levels of incompetence to the senate, and that’s saying something.

 

 

There's no way he knows that it took almost 100 years after the Constitution was ratified and multiple other Amendments to make that statement somewhat true, right?

[1pooh4u]

3 hours ago, Seight said:

There's no way he knows that it took almost 100 years after the Constitution was ratified and multiple other Amendments to make that statement somewhat true, right?

He doesn’t care his brain is probably half the size it was when he played football and twice as old as his physical age.  I wish I knew who chooses candidates, like wtf went up to this guy and said “Ya know Herschel you should do politics. You’d make an excellent US Senator” that person needs to be shot. The people that hype up the Walker’s Green’s Boeberts Gaetzes Cruz’s, and any other of those fuckin whackos needs to be shot. They’re fuckin assholes. They suck. 

[scoobdog]

On 9/10/2022 at 7:52 PM, 1pooh4u said:

He doesn’t care his brain is probably half the size it was when he played football and twice as old as his physical age.  I wish I knew who chooses candidates, like wtf went up to this guy and said “Ya know Herschel you should do politics. You’d make an excellent US Senator” that person needs to be shot. The people that hype up the Walker’s Green’s Boeberts Gaetzes Cruz’s, and any other of those fuckin whackos needs to be shot. They’re fuckin assholes. They suck. 

Only one person told Herschel he would make an excellent US Senator.

[1pooh4u]

14 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

Only one person told Herschel he would make an excellent US Senator.

Who was that?  Who’s recruiting these fuckin people?

[1pooh4u]

Probably was Dr. Oz, right? Probably had one too many tequila shots after scarfing down his wife’s crudités 

[scoobdog]

21 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

Who was that?  Who’s recruiting these fuckin people?

Fairly certain he got the idea to run because Trump liked him sucking up.  Obvious as it is, it can't be overstated how much Trump's pandering to sycophants has directly contributed to unqualified candidates, either through him pushing them to run or through them openly courting him.  Herschel was a frequent prop at Trump's rallies during his failed 2020 campaign.  MTG and Hoebart openly courted Trump and used his prestige to get elected in their conservative districts as well.

[1pooh4u]

4 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

Fairly certain he got the idea to run because Trump liked him sucking up.  Obvious as it is, it can't be overstated how much Trump's pandering to sycophants has directly contributed to unqualified candidates, either through him pushing them to run or through them openly courting him.  Herschel was a frequent prop at Trump's rallies during his failed 2020 campaign.  MTG and Hoebart openly courted Trump and used his prestige to get elected in their conservative districts as well.

This predates Trump though someone very wealthy gotta be putting names of crazy people in a hat and randomly choosing them to run for office when their name gets pulling 

[scoobdog]

Just now, 1pooh4u said:

This predates Trump though someone very wealthy gotta be putting names of crazy people in a hat and randomly choosing them to run for office when their name gets pulling 

I haven't really seen any evidence of a concerted effort to get him on the ballot prior to Trump.  He does have a lot of name recognition in his home state and he certainly has been vocal about conservative causes before making him a fairly reliable mouthpiece for the cause.  MTG, iirc, got into politics explicitly to be a Trump Acolyte.

But, you're right, Trump isn't the mechanism that gets these campaigns off and running.  Peter Thiel is one notable wealthy donor that's pushed some highly questionable candidates.  Still, even he tends to back away when the candidate starts to show signs of being fairly stupid.  The more likely answer is that we're getting these bad candidates not because of any wealthy donor pushing them through, but because they resonate with the most activate members of the extreme right.  They tend to make it through the primary rounds because of a toxic cocktail of relatively small races (not a lot of interest from qualified candidates), relatively cheap campaigns, and a general disinterest by mainstream Republican voters.

All this talk about the Red Wave obscures the fact that there is a good deal of Republicans that might agree with even the most odious or conservative political values (like abortion bans), but don't necessarily like the candidates pushing those values.  Trump has created a power vacuum of sorts by portraying himself as a power broker without doing any of the work.  He doesn't have a apparatus for locating and grooming potential candidates.  He has no ability to negotiate with the establishment to coordinate campaigns for candidates he likes.  His only power comes from his bully pulpit, and that pulpit is so prominent that no one else can overcome the advantage.

The short answer is that we're getting bad candidates not because wealthy powerbrokers are pushing them, but because wealthy powerbrokers have mostly been MIA.

[1pooh4u]

4 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

I haven't really seen any evidence of a concerted effort to get him on the ballot prior to Trump.  He does have a lot of name recognition in his home state and he certainly has been vocal about conservative causes before making him a fairly reliable mouthpiece for the cause.  MTG, iirc, got into politics explicitly to be a Trump Acolyte.

But, you're right, Trump isn't the mechanism that gets these campaigns off and running.  Peter Thiel is one notable wealthy donor that's pushed some highly questionable candidates.  Still, even he tends to back away when the candidate starts to show signs of being fairly stupid.  The more likely answer is that we're getting these bad candidates not because of any wealthy donor pushing them through, but because they resonate with the most activate members of the extreme right.  They tend to make it through the primary rounds because of a toxic cocktail of relatively small races (not a lot of interest from qualified candidates), relatively cheap campaigns, and a general disinterest by mainstream Republican voters.

All this talk about the Red Wave obscures the fact that there is a good deal of Republicans that might agree with even the most odious or conservative political values (like abortion bans), but don't necessarily like the candidates pushing those values.  Trump has created a power vacuum of sorts by portraying himself as a power broker without doing any of the work.  He doesn't have a apparatus for locating and grooming potential candidates.  He has no ability to negotiate with the establishment to coordinate campaigns for candidates he likes.  His only power comes from his bully pulpit, and that pulpit is so prominent that no one else can overcome the advantage.

The short answer is that we're getting bad candidates not because wealthy powerbrokers are pushing them, but because wealthy powerbrokers have mostly been MIA.

I’m talking about low quality candidates in general not just Walker specifically 

[scoobdog]

1 minute ago, 1pooh4u said:

I’m talking about low quality candidates in general not just Walker specifically 

Right.  We're getting bad Republican candidates because wealthy powerbrokers are staying away and no one qualified is stepping up to supplant them.

[Sawdy]

Ok…

if Dr Oz wins PA, I’m sucking 37 dicks in a row… as protest

[naraku360]

21 hours ago, 1pooh4u said:

I’m talking about low quality candidates

Conservatives don't make high quality candidates. Those are mutually exclusive 

[discolé monade]

On 9/10/2022 at 10:52 PM, 1pooh4u said:

He doesn’t care his brain is probably half the size it was when he played football and twice as old as his physical age.  I wish I knew who chooses candidates, like wtf went up to this guy and said “Ya know Herschel you should do politics. You’d make an excellent US Senator” that person needs to be shot. The people that hype up the Walker’s Green’s Boeberts Gaetzes Cruz’s, and any other of those fuckin whackos needs to be shot. They’re fuckin assholes. They suck. 

i just think it's incredibly sad that walker's family, anyone in his family doesn't tell this man how pathetic this is. he looks so dumb up there. another uncle ruckus. 

Edited September 13, 2022 by discolé monade

[scoobdog]

I wonder if he's been dealing with CTE for so long that his own family simply lost control of the situation.

[1pooh4u]

1 hour ago, discolé monade said:

i just think it's incredibly sad that walker's family, anyone in his family doesn't tell this man how pathetic this is. he looks so dumb up there. another uncle ruckus. 

You should check out his gay conservative son Christian Walker. Another piece of work 🙄

[Raptorpat]

mirror mode

[SwimModSponges]

Marge Greene physically attacks someone and tweets about it.

 

[SwimModSponges]

 

[Sawdy]

 

[discolé monade]

this is so gross.  : (   

 

Edited September 16, 2022 by discolé monade

[katt_goddess]

The lady she was kicking for being in her way appears to be pregnant.

I thought she was all about the pre-born?  

[Master-Debater131]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/nv/nevada_senate_laxalt_vs_cortez_masto-7392.html

 

Sure looking like Nevada might flip to the GOP as well. This race was always going to be closer than people might have expected. And with the growing movement of Hispanics away from Democrats its sure looking like Nevada may flip, and if it does then control of the Senate likely flips as well.

[Master-Debater131]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

PA is tightening up a bit as well. Fettermans health is absolutely starting to become a factor in this race. The debate they have scheduled in October is going to be a huge moment. If Fetterman cant make it through the debate then Oz might actually win this thing.

Which is crazy, because he is a freaking horrible candidate.

[Sawdy]

5 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

PA is tightening up a bit as well. Fettermans health is absolutely starting to become a factor in this race. The debate they have scheduled in October is going to be a huge moment. If Fetterman cant make it through the debate then Oz might actually win this thing.

Which is crazy, because he is a freaking horrible candidate.

Fetterman will be fine. I live here… trust me.

[discolé monade]

On 9/9/2022 at 2:47 PM, discolé monade said:

has anyone heard of Project SAVE, being thrown around by the fringe GOP?

(not the PS of atlanta~childrens healthcare)

i think i figured it out. it seems like this is fringe GOP antics, whispered through the interwebs. 'Project SAVE' ~ not to be confused with medical supplies for children.

Using inflammatory language as if Ms. Abrams, the Democratic nominee for governor, were an invading enemy, the flier issued a “call to action” encouraging “conservatives and patriots” to “save and protect our neighborhoods.” It emerged this week in response to news that Ms. Abrams would be campaigning alongside other members of the Democratic ticket in the area on Sunday.

[1pooh4u]

6 minutes ago, discolé monade said:

i think i figured it out. it seems like this is fringe GOP antics, whispered through the interwebs. 'Project SAVE' ~ not to be confused with medical supplies for children.

Using inflammatory language as if Ms. Abrams, the Democratic nominee for governor, were an invading enemy, the flier issued a “call to action” encouraging “conservatives and patriots” to “save and protect our neighborhoods.” It emerged this week in response to news that Ms. Abrams would be campaigning alongside other members of the Democratic ticket in the area on Sunday.

Conservatives are scared to death of Stacy Abrams.   

[Master-Debater131]

1 hour ago, Sawdy said:

Fetterman will be fine. I live here… trust me.

Oh I fully expect him to win.  Things are just starting to get closer.

[Ginguy]

So, in the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals this happened.

https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/21/21-51178-CV1.pdf

Go Texas....

 

 

 

[stilgar]

We get it jingo, you want to say the n word.

[discolé monade]

6 minutes ago, Ginguy said:

So, in the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals this happened.

https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/21/21-51178-CV1.pdf

Go Texas....

 

 

 

 

i don't see the problem.

[Raptorpat]

1 hour ago, discolé monade said:

i don't see the problem.

FL and TX passed laws declaring social media platforms as common carriers and prohibiting content 'censorship'. The platforms sued and the two circuit courts went different ways, creating a 'circuit split' which can only be resolved by SCOTUS.

Meanwhile, blue states are requiring those same platforms to have anti-discrimination and anti-hate speech procedures, which is the opposite of censorship.

The best result would probably just be Facebook to come out and say 'social media was a mistake and we're shutting everything down.'

[katt_goddess]

2 hours ago, Ginguy said:

So, in the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals this happened.

https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/21/21-51178-CV1.pdf

Go Texas....

 

So...

Can't say 'gay'.

Can't say 'insurrection'. 

Can't use any term that might in any way, shape, or form constitute 'gender affirming'.

Can't talk about actual historical events without some shitbag screaming about 'Critical Race Theory'. 

Can't let women make their own medical decisions because 'pre-born' have to have more rights than the already breathing.

And you think that a group of compromised assholes that have already ruled corporations are individuals with all the power of individuals to call the shots over their employees / users is the way to go? 

There's not enough wood on the planet for all the crosses needed for the poor thin-skinned conservaturd martyrs running around being persecuted by bad words and being told to shut up. 

[naraku360]

9 hours ago, Ginguy said:

So, in the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals this happened.

https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/21/21-51178-CV1.pdf

Go Texas....

 

 

 

Who hurt you?

[cyberbully]

1 hour ago, naraku360 said:

Who hurt you?

Conservatives, but it's impossible to ascertain with your head this far up your own ass.