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2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences

NewBluntsworth

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Belize Aristocrat

Belize

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2 hours ago, Blackrose321 said:

I worry about Dems kicking themselves in the teeth like this. Is Biden a risk? Absolutely. He's not the most inspiring candidate. But Dems keep looking for the perfect candidate, attacking their own when they show flaws, while the right gives 0 fucks about their candidate being an uneducated fraud who wants to fuck his own daughter. They seem to like it, actually. Going after Biden for senior moments is just so fucking insane when Trump is the alternative. If there was a clear option for someone who could replace him without losing momentum that would be awesome but that doesn't seem to be the case. So all we're left with are Dems turning on Dems. It's 2016 all over with the DNC backing Clinton over Bernie even though Bernie had much better prospects than Clinton.

I'm keeping my focus on Allan Lichtman. He's already said Biden is the best bet, at least pre-shooting. So far all he's said since the shooting is:

I will say, though, that he's more optimistic than I am. He's waiting to see how Republicans spin this but I think we all know how they're going to spin it. They're a party without a platform, they're riding coattails. This is all they've got to work with.

 

 

I agree with everything in this post except for the 2016 comparison. There are two types of elections: incumbent presidents running for reelection (2024) and open seats (2016), and the dynamics are so different I consider them distinct. Whatever screwups the Democrats had in 2016 are not the same kinds of screwups they are or will be doing in 2024. 

 

Beyond that, I agree maximizing the chance of defeating Trump is an incumbent president running that we can use as a vessel for the anti-Trump vote. 

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https://x.com/selina_dedalus/status/1817624852276424868

little_girl_lost
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Trump made his choice, he should have to carry jd vance to term.

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Happy to see those two got out to cast their vote.

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Belize Aristocrat

Belize

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Posted (edited)

Interesting in retrospect: Economist Ray C. Fair has been predicting the popular vote of presidential elections for decades. Back in 2014, he began making predictions for the upcoming 2016 presidential election. From 2014 to election day, he insisted the Republican candidate would win the popular vote. 

He was wrong. Democrat Clinton won the popular vote. He attributes his wrong prediction to how horrible Trump is. A normal Republican, he insists, should have won 56% of two-party popular vote. Instead Trump got 49%. 

If you want to get an idea of how poisonous Trump is. 

 

If Mitt Romney had been the GOP candidate in 2016, the overall popular vote would probably have been like 53%-47% for Romney. 

Edited by Belize
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Insipid Legend

Insipid

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I'm losing brain cells watching the RNC but I just saw something that made it worth it: They zoomed into Donald Trump Jr.'s kids during his own speech. His daughter was on her phone and his son let out a huge yawn.

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Master-Debater131 Paragon

Master-Debater131

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Just Brutal from CNN, and not wrong either. A huge issue that Biden is facing is the image that he is too old, to weak, and too mentally far gone to be able to last another 4 years. In the span of just a few days we are given this insane image where Trump is shot and gets up screaming Fight and Biden catches Covid and goes into isolation. Most people dont even think Covid is that big of a deal anymore.

To be fair, at his age it is dangerous, but that only furthers the point that he is too old and too frail to be able to last another 4 years.

Depending on how long Covid knocks Biden out for this might be the fatal blow for his campaign. Trump can keep campaigning and holding rallys, and if Biden is holed up somewhere that just makes this look that much worse for him.

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Jman Super Hero

Jman

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Apparently, he's starting to come around to how important it is not to let Trump win.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/17/politics/biden-democratic-advisers-campaign/index.html

Biden seems to be getting more and more receptive to retiring with grace and letting a much younger, less insane person handle it.  It should be interesting to see if it happens, just to see how they pivot from Sleepy Joe to a candidate several decades Trump's junior.

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André Toulon Monster Mutant

André Toulon

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Wasn't trump on camera farting and sleeping while being brought up on felony charges? I mean what level of old is acceptable.

I know Americans are fucking stupid but if I had to choose between a guy that's allegedly on the decline with an able woman next to him vs an egomaniac who might shit himself during international duress and a vp who is younger than me and has never been close to the big stage, I'd still choose he former...but it's whatever. I'm sick of all of this shit 

Edited by André Toulon
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Jman Super Hero

Jman

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Just now, André Toulon said:

Wasn't trump on camera farting and sleeping while being brought up on felony charges? I mean what level of old is acceptable.

I know Americans are fucking stupid but if I had to choose between a guy that's allegedly on the decline with an able woman next to him vs an egomaniac who might shit himself during international duress and a vp who is younger than me and has never been close to the big stage, I'd still choose he former...but it's whatever. I'm sick of all of this shit 

We all are.  Especially since every day something more insane comes out of the GOP camp with no goal but to hurt people.

Might be why one of the keynote speakers tonight is Hulk Hogan.  As the late Iron Sheik put it best - 

 

 

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Master-Debater131 Paragon

Master-Debater131

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So about that JD Vance speech last night.....

That was not what I was expecting. First, I had no idea his wife was Indian. Thats potentially an asset for him when the left inevitably screams that hes racist and the next coming of Hitler.

Second, and really the bigger point, is that a lot of his speech could have been ripped from a Democratic convention. Talking about how free trade hurts workers, corporate bailouts need to stop, no more Team America World Police, and increasing union jobs. Those are things straight from the Democrats old party platform. You could probably find those same exact words from speeches during Democratic conventions of the Bush and Obama years.

Its crazy to see the shift like this happening. Democrats are abandoning the working class, and Trump is doing what he can to scoop them up. This realignment is pretty remarkable to watch.

I doubt that his speech moves the needle at all, VPs typically dont. But this shift in tone and priority is really something else to see.

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scoobdog Monster Mutant

scoobdog

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52 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Just Brutal from CNN, and not wrong either. A huge issue that Biden is facing is the image that he is too old, to weak, and too mentally far gone to be able to last another 4 years. In the span of just a few days we are given this insane image where Trump is shot and gets up screaming Fight and Biden catches Covid and goes into isolation. Most people dont even think Covid is that big of a deal anymore.

To be fair, at his age it is dangerous, but that only furthers the point that he is too old and too frail to be able to last another 4 years.

Depending on how long Covid knocks Biden out for this might be the fatal blow for his campaign. Trump can keep campaigning and holding rallys, and if Biden is holed up somewhere that just makes this look that much worse for him.

So, I’m old and frail now because I spent a few days at home after testing positive for COVID?  Good to know.

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Blackrose321 Gentry

Blackrose321

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19 hours ago, Belize said:

Lichtman is an interesting person. He's quickly gaining a reputation as "the guy who Biden supporters are turning to for copium"

Is he? To the best of my knowledge, all he has said is that Biden is the (current) best pick the Dems have. He didn't say he'd win, I don't think Lichtman is going to call the overall winner for a while. I like him because, as you said,  he "make(s) predictions based on research". I just can't handle all of the dramatics you get elsewhere, I really can't. He could be wrong, but at least he doesn't sound like a lunatic so I can follow him without rolling my eyes.

17 hours ago, Belize said:

I agree with everything in this post except for the 2016 comparison. There are two types of elections: incumbent presidents running for reelection (2024) and open seats (2016), and the dynamics are so different I consider them distinct. Whatever screwups the Democrats had in 2016 are not the same kinds of screwups they are or will be doing in 2024. 

My gripe is really just that last part - "Whatever screwups the Democrats had in 2016". It doesn't matter if they are the same screwup, it's still a screwup. This is the second time Trump will be up for election and the Dems just aren't handling it well. In the first instance, they underestimated him and therefore felt comfortable putting Clinton upfront even as Bernie's popularity soared. The man is still working and he's still reaching across the aisle in a way a lot of other politicians can't and won't. He would have been a safer bet, but he also wouldn't have been a center-left candidate which is really what the old guard wanted.

Now we're going for round two and bit by bit, Dems are telling Biden to drop out but I don't get the feeling that they've formulated a plan. So you have a bunch of Twitter-addicted dingdongs calling for Biden to step back with no plan between them. Until there is a cohesive plan, imo they should have kept their hot takes to themselves. But they can't, can they? A significant part of their "job" these days appears to be begging for attention so the job attracts a lot of narcissists who really just want likes and shares. 0 strategy in it at all... /sigh

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Insipid Legend

Insipid

Posted
Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

So about that JD Vance speech last night.....

That was not what I was expecting. First, I had no idea his wife was Indian. Thats potentially an asset for him when the left inevitably screams that hes racist and the next coming of Hitler.

Second, and really the bigger point, is that a lot of his speech could have been ripped from a Democratic convention. Talking about how free trade hurts workers, corporate bailouts need to stop, no more Team America World Police, and increasing union jobs. Those are things straight from the Democrats old party platform. You could probably find those same exact words from speeches during Democratic conventions of the Bush and Obama years.

Its crazy to see the shift like this happening. Democrats are abandoning the working class, and Trump is doing what he can to scoop them up. This realignment is pretty remarkable to watch.

I doubt that his speech moves the needle at all, VPs typically dont. But this shift in tone and priority is really something else to see.

It's theatrics and you know this. The GOP is not gonna stop being the shameless party of corporate welfare queens.

Also:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/17/technology/jd-vance-tech-silicon-valley.html

Edited by Insipid
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scoobdog Monster Mutant

scoobdog

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4 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Are you over 80 and consistently unable to finish thoughts and sentences?

If so, then yes.

But that describes Trump too.  I don’t understand why you think Biden doing what every health organization in the country is telling people to do:  go home when you’re sick so you don’t make others sick.

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Master-Debater131 Paragon

Master-Debater131

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56 minutes ago, Jman said:

Apparently, he's starting to come around to how important it is not to let Trump win.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/17/politics/biden-democratic-advisers-campaign/index.html

Biden seems to be getting more and more receptive to retiring with grace and letting a much younger, less insane person handle it.  It should be interesting to see if it happens, just to see how they pivot from Sleepy Joe to a candidate several decades Trump's junior.

Im throwing the Tinfoil Hat on now. Cant let Blueanon be the only one throwing around conspiracy theories right now, even if the "it was staged" ones are top tier.

Biden just yesterday in an interview said that he would be wiling to step down if he had medical issues that forced him to drop out. That is very different than what he said even a week ago when it was "God Himself would have to tell me" to drop out.

Now he has Covid, supposedly. He was out doing events and giving speeches then magically tests positive for covid even though he didnt appear to be showing any symptoms. After the positive test, he did not mask and traveled in cars with other officials to Air Force One. Thats not what someone with Covid is supposed to do.

Biden doesnt have Covid, he just has Old. Hes going to use this as an excuse to drop out saying he has complications from Covid and it isnt him backing down, but being forced to back out because of his health.

I have absolutely nothing to prove that, and it is entirely a tinfoil hat theory. But with how they are flying around right now I wanted to throw more tinfoil into the ring.

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Master-Debater131 Paragon

Master-Debater131

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8 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

But that describes Trump too.  I don’t understand why you think Biden doing what every health organization in the country is telling people to do:  go home when you’re sick so you don’t make others sick.

First, Im not the one making that argument. Democrat Van Jones is. A bullet didnt stop Trump, Covid just stopped Biden. When a central piece of this campaign is talking about overall health and fitness random chance has given us some extremely different outcomes. Trump was shot and then showed up at his Convention 48 hours later. Biden has Covid and is going into lock down.

Second, most people do not view Covid as anything more than a common cold at this point. If Biden has to lock down for a week or longer, he is in deep trouble. If he bounces back and is back out in a couple days then nothing likely changes.

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scoobdog Monster Mutant

scoobdog

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7 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

First, Im not the one making that argument. Democrat Van Jones is. A bullet didnt stop Trump, Covid just stopped Biden. When a central piece of this campaign is talking about overall health and fitness random chance has given us some extremely different outcomes. Trump was shot and then showed up at his Convention 48 hours later. Biden has Covid and is going into lock down.

Second, most people do not view Covid as anything more than a common cold at this point. If Biden has to lock down for a week or longer, he is in deep trouble. If he bounces back and is back out in a couple days then nothing likely changes.

Only idiots think of COVID as the common cold, and most people aren’t idiots.  And Trump getting scratched by plexiglass.  Trying to compare the two is the exact bullshit that Republicans use to con voters.

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Master-Debater131 Paragon

Master-Debater131

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Obama tells allies Biden needs to seriously consider his viability

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/obama-tells-allies-biden-needs-to-seriously-consider-his-viability/ar-BB1qdSr4

"Former president Barack Obama has told allies in recent days that President Biden’s path to victory has greatly diminished and he thinks the president needs to seriously consider the viability of his candidacy, according to multiple people briefed on his thinking.

Obama has spoken with Biden only once since the debate, and he has been clear in his conversations with others that the future of Biden’s candidacy is a decision for the president to make. He has emphasized that his concern is protecting Biden and his legacy, and has pushed back against the idea that he alone can influence Biden’s decision-making process."

 

hahaha. This is getting just wild now. It really seems like the only one who wants Biden to run, is Biden.

The signal that this is over and he is dropping out will be if he issues a pardon for Hunter. If that happens, hes leaving the race.

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Dusty Shackleford Luminary

Dusty Shackleford

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2 hours ago, scoobdog said:

Only idiots think of COVID as the common cold, and most people aren’t idiots.  And Trump getting scratched by plexiglass.  Trying to compare the two is the exact bullshit that Republicans use to con voters.

As someone who works as cashier this statement deeply offends me.

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rpgamer Luminary

rpgamer

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3 hours ago, discolé monade said:

lol md is impressed that the gop candidate has a token wife. this will win over the swing vote. you fucking tool

Coupled with the previous post.... it really doesn't take much for a lot of idiots to decide "Trump is clearly presidential material despite throwing everyone under the bus constantly."

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Master-Debater131 Paragon

Master-Debater131

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CNN breaking things down. The interesting thing in here is the tidbit about the Democratic memo that got passed around. Its not just Biden who is in trouble, but down-ballot Democrats. The reason for that is that its impossible to defend Bidens mental state when we all can see whats going on.

 

There is not enough popcorn in the world for this level of drama.

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Master-Debater131 Paragon

Master-Debater131

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Apparently Trump changed his speech to remove all references to Biden himself. He will still mention Haris and Democrats in general, but not refer to Biden by name.

 

At this point either Biden drops out, or this is going to go down as one of the greatest political reporting whiffs of all time.

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katt_goddess Monster Mutant

katt_goddess

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7 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Just Brutal from CNN, and not wrong either. A huge issue that Biden is facing is the image that he is too old, to weak, and too mentally far gone to be able to last another 4 years. In the span of just a few days we are given this insane image where Trump is shot and gets up screaming Fight and Biden catches Covid and goes into isolation. Most people dont even think Covid is that big of a deal anymore.

To be fair, at his age it is dangerous, but that only furthers the point that he is too old and too frail to be able to last another 4 years.

Depending on how long Covid knocks Biden out for this might be the fatal blow for his campaign. Trump can keep campaigning and holding rallys, and if Biden is holed up somewhere that just makes this look that much worse for him.

Drumpf got a literal hot papercut and is now wearing a baby diaper attached to his ear for the attention. Biden caught a virus that is highly contagious and has the very real potential to do serious damage to ANYONE that catches it even if they've been vaccinated. Also, you seem to happily gloss over that King Diaperbaby would still hold super spreader rallies if he tested positive [ and probably is because he a] doesn't care if other people get sick and b] seems to think nothing of how he'd be able to get the best possible medical at tax payers' expense if he did have more than mild symptoms while everyone else would have to suffer. Biden is showing responsibility - something Drumpf knows nothing about and would probably call woke or liberal anyway.

As for Vance, it doesn't matter what he says because the New Trumplican Party's number one rule is 'Say whatever, do the opposite. It's not lying, it's alternative truth.' The so-called speech ripped from the democrat's playbook is likely exactly that - a deliberate attempt to say all the things that would be in a democratic speech in order to claim 'they's copies us!' when the reality is the GOP is so firmly attached to things like tax cuts for the rich/tax the poor into serfdom that there's 0 possibility that they'd ever do anything to actually help the middle class. It's called Project 2025 and it has nothing for the poor. He was picked for VP because he kissed the anal ring the hardest and pledged to tie-break in favor of the Anus for as long as a House and Senate are allowed to exist in the monarchy. 

 

'A bullet didn't stop...' I'm practically willing to put money down that I've got worse battle scars from the current kitten's teething and overwhelming need to swing from my calves every time I move. I'd even take a pic to prove it but I haven't shaved since my last hospital trip so all anyone would see is furry leg warmers with specks of blood everywhere.  

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Master-Debater131 Paragon

Master-Debater131

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WaPo is reporting that Pelosi is telling Democrats she things Biden can be convinced to drop out this weekend.

 

Something interesting about all these reports today is where they are coming from. There appears to be a very concerted effort to drum up the idea that Biden should drop out. All of it is coming from the Pelosi and Obama camps. Nothing from the Biden camp itself. This is important because the Biden camp still blames Obama for Democrats for losing in 2016. Biden got pushed aside for Hillary, and she lost.

So There may actually be a bit of an opposite effect going on within the Biden camp. Rather than listen to all of this, they may be getting more angry at Obama and further hardening their stance on stay in the race.

Either way, we need more popcorn.

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Jman Super Hero

Jman

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19 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

WaPo is reporting that Pelosi is telling Democrats she things Biden can be convinced to drop out this weekend.

 

Something interesting about all these reports today is where they are coming from. There appears to be a very concerted effort to drum up the idea that Biden should drop out. All of it is coming from the Pelosi and Obama camps. Nothing from the Biden camp itself. This is important because the Biden camp still blames Obama for Democrats for losing in 2016. Biden got pushed aside for Hillary, and she lost.

So There may actually be a bit of an opposite effect going on within the Biden camp. Rather than listen to all of this, they may be getting more angry at Obama and further hardening their stance on stay in the race.

Either way, we need more popcorn.

No, we don’t need mroe fucking popcorn.  We need people to start being responsible and know when it’s time to step aside.

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