2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences

[Belize]

There we are, @1pooh4u. This cuts against your demographic shifts claim. (It's not just yours; it's the claims that many are unhesitantly just accepting). 

 

Reports of a Latino Democratic exodus may be slightly exaggerated.

Anxiety was high after exit polls showed that 46 percent of Latinos, and 55 percent of Latino men, voted for Donald Trump. While it is a significant blow—Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton won Latinos at 65 and 66 percent respectively—a more detailed breakdown by heritage offered some pushback to the generalized narrative.

 

The Americas Society Council of the Americas research showed that of the largest Latino groups in the United States, Cuban Americans were the only one in which over half of voters chose Trump, as they went for him by a decisive 58 percent. Mexican Americans—by far the largest Latino community in the country—only went 33 percent for Trump, with Puerto Ricans at 37 percent and Central Americans at 36 percent.

 

https://newrepublic.com/post/188203/latino-vote-trump-harris-2024-election-data-breakdown

 

[Belize]

This *might* raise the question of Florida, where many Cuban-Americans live. Florida swung shockingly to Republicans this year. There is a Republican explosion going on down there. 

*That* could explain the media exit polls about the national Latino vote. 

[scoobdog]

3 hours ago, 1pooh4u said:

It wasn’t the same people though and the democrats lost demographics they’re never getting them back.  It might be democrats that never win another election, especially if they’re thinking like you are. 

I’m not going to Icky’s level here, but he’s not entirely wrong either.  The fact is, Trumps voters regardless of how they rationalized it, were voting for regression.  Part of it is that the messaging wasn’t as clear as it could be, but ultimately it was predominantly about returning to a way of life that’s going extinct.  We’re not losing those demographics over the long term because we don’t have a choice but to find a way forward and Trumpism has no such way. 
Realistcally, the GOP is going to the ones that make the greatest strides in changing once Trump dies in office, which means they’re going to have to go further than Democrats to retain the youth vote.

[1pooh4u]

4 minutes ago, Belize said:

There we are, @1pooh4u. This cuts against your demographic shifts claim. (It's not just yours; it's the claims that many are unhesitantly just accepting). 

 

Reports of a Latino Democratic exodus may be slightly exaggerated.

Anxiety was high after exit polls showed that 46 percent of Latinos, and 55 percent of Latino men, voted for Donald Trump. While it is a significant blow—Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton won Latinos at 65 and 66 percent respectively—a more detailed breakdown by heritage offered some pushback to the generalized narrative.

 

The Americas Society Council of the Americas research showed that of the largest Latino groups in the United States, Cuban Americans were the only one in which over half of voters chose Trump, as they went for him by a decisive 58 percent. Mexican Americans—by far the largest Latino community in the country—only went 33 percent for Trump, with Puerto Ricans at 37 percent and Central Americans at 36 percent.

 

https://newrepublic.com/post/188203/latino-vote-trump-harris-2024-election-data-breakdown

 

An increase from 2020, no?  It’s ridiculous to blame the demographic for the outcome when 55% of white people voted for him (in those numbers white Latinos are probably included) but to ignore the steady increase since 2016 is stupid. 

[1pooh4u]

12 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

I’m not going to Icky’s level here, but he’s not entirely wrong either.  The fact is, Trumps voters regardless of how they rationalized it, were voting for regression.  Part of it is that the messaging wasn’t as clear as it could be, but ultimately it was predominantly about returning to a way of life that’s going extinct.  We’re not losing those demographics over the long term because we don’t have a choice but to find a way forward and Trumpism has no such way. 
Realistcally, the GOP is going to the ones that make the greatest strides in changing once Trump dies in office, which means they’re going to have to go further than Democrats to retain the youth vote.

I think this attitude is dangerous because it’s lazy and will only lead to more complacency in the Democratic Party. 

[Belize]

8 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

An increase from 2020, no?  It’s ridiculous to blame the demographic for the outcome when 55% of white people voted for him (in those numbers white Latinos are probably included) but to ignore the steady increase since 2016 is stupid. 

 

I don't blame them. It was just a specific demographic claim that I have seen being repeated, and this is my first time really examining it. Yes, I wonder if white Latinos make the group as a whole seem more pro-Trump than Latinos as a whole. A good reason to be skeptical, I suppose. 

And yes, you are correct it is an increase as whole from 2020. That's concerning, but with all the other caveats about different races and heritages of Latinos. It would also mean my previous claim about "it's just the same group of idiots from 2020" is literally false. There is at least one part of the Trump voters that is different from 2020. Maybe there are other shifts that make up for it and thus Trump's total votes remain roughly the same as in 2020. 

[Jman]

https://meidasnews.com/news/the-right-supports-a-network-of-conferences-podcasters-rallies-the-left-has-msnbc
 

More articles about how badly messaging went and what can be done to improve them, especially in light of so many progressive policies passing.

[Belize]

21 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

I’m not going to Icky’s level here, but he’s not entirely wrong either.  The fact is, Trumps voters regardless of how they rationalized it, were voting for regression.  Part of it is that the messaging wasn’t as clear as it could be, but ultimately it was predominantly about returning to a way of life that’s going extinct.  We’re not losing those demographics over the long term because we don’t have a choice but to find a way forward and Trumpism has no such way. 
Realistcally, the GOP is going to the ones that make the greatest strides in changing once Trump dies in office, which means they’re going to have to go further than Democrats to retain the youth vote.

 

This gets into the idea that Trump is a singular figure that can pull this off, and no one else can. Once he's out of the picture, his coalition won't exist anymore. It's plausible, but too optimistic to completely rely on. It would be good if it is true, but Dems should be planning in case it's not true and the Trump coalition outlives him. 

 

 

I might think elections are cyclical. Even Trump himself is going to experience a backlash, so maybe groups that swung to him in 2024 can easily swing back the other way when times get tough. 

[1pooh4u]

2 minutes ago, Belize said:

 

I don't blame them. It was just a specific demographic claim that I have seen being repeated, and this is my first time really examining it. Yes, I wonder if white Latinos make the group as a whole seem more pro-Trump than Latinos as a whole. A good reason to be skeptical, I suppose. 

And yes, you are correct it is an increase as whole from 2020. That's concerning, but with all the other caveats about different races and heritages of Latinos. It would also mean my previous claim about "it's just the same group of idiots from 2020" is literally false. There is at least one part of the Trump voters that is different from 2020. Maybe there are other shifts that make up for it and thus Trump's total votes remain roughly the same as in 2020. 

I wasn’t saying you were, I’m saying in general because that’s where the media is pointing their fingers.  My only concern is having a “this is fine” mentality when the room is clearly on fire.  Changes need to be made in messaging when we have an ever changing demographics with different needs in this country also coupled with the change in how media is consumed.  Particularly and especially our news. 

[new_disease]

Has this been posted here yet. 

 

[Belize]

10 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

I wasn’t saying you were, I’m saying in general because that’s where the media is pointing their fingers.  My only concern is having a “this is fine” mentality when the room is clearly on fire.  Changes need to be made in messaging when we have an ever changing demographics with different needs in this country also coupled with the change in how media is consumed.  Particularly and especially our news. 

 

That's fair. I don't mean to express "this is fine". Relatively good news is that the demographic shifts toward Trump are not as apocalyptic as some have been saying, especially on social media. I was skeptical of the claims when I first heard them (Latinos are Republicans now). I think I was correct to be skeptical. 

 

Another specific demographic shift I have heard repeated is about young people, Gen Z. (Gen Z are Republican now!) My first dive in on that is the media exit polls show 18-29 year old men (R +2) and women (D +24) being more Democratic than the older millennials and Gen Xers. 

Compared to 2020, all age groups except seniors became more Republican. Concerning, but I don't see that much to single out Gen Z in particular. I'll feel better with more information on this though. 

[Belize]

Just now, new_disease said:

Has this been posted here yet. 

 

 

That person doesn't understand Presidents if they think there is someone allowing or disallowing him to run. That's not how it works. 

[naraku360]

55 minutes ago, Belize said:

 

That person doesn't understand Presidents if they think there is someone allowing or disallowing him to run. That's not how it works. 

The DNC didn't have to shove him down our throats.

[SwimOdin]

Biden should have done what he intimated in 2020: a one-term president so there could’ve been a real primary. 

[new_disease]

1 hour ago, Belize said:

 

That person doesn't understand Presidents if they think there is someone allowing or disallowing him to run. That's not how it works. 

I don't disagree with you. I only linked that because if Biden's own team, and Biden himself, were aware how terrible he was doing he could've dropped out a lot sooner or the DNC could have had an open primary. A lot of 'could have's' here but to sum it up I guess, seems like Biden had an ego or some sort of savior complex. 

[Jman]

https://www.latintimes.com/taliban-official-mocks-us-rejecting-kamala-harris-americans-are-not-ready-hand-over-country-565083
 

The fucking Taliban dunked on us for voting for Trump.

[stilgar]

8 minutes ago, Jman said:

https://www.latintimes.com/taliban-official-mocks-us-rejecting-kamala-harris-americans-are-not-ready-hand-over-country-565083
 

The fucking Taliban dunked on us for voting for Trump.

We deserve that. 

[1pooh4u]

20 minutes ago, Jman said:

https://www.latintimes.com/taliban-official-mocks-us-rejecting-kamala-harris-americans-are-not-ready-hand-over-country-565083
 

The fucking Taliban dunked on us for voting for Trump.

That wasn’t a dunk they’re proud of us for it. ☹️

[André Toulon]

I'm really remembering why I didn't used to post in this folder

[Jman]

 

This is why I hope he dies or is rendered a vegetable soon.  Cults never last without their figurehead.  And I hate feeling that way, but at this point, he has enough hate to throw at others.

Edited November 9 by Jman

[naraku360]

2 minutes ago, Jman said:

 

This is why I hope he dies or is rendered a vegetable soon.  Cults never last without their figurehead.  And I hate feeling that way, but at this point, he has enough hate to throw at others.

The problem comes from the unfortunate truth that some people make the world a tangibly worse place and we'd be better off without them, to the point of murder being potentially a moral net positive when it comes to the worst of the worst. It's not like the person being terrible makes killing them inherently okay, but when we've had people like Kissinger I don't think "murder is wrong" is always so ridgedly true.

It sucks having to think "I hope he dies," but it'd undeniably a benefit to humanity if he'd fucking hurry up with it.

[Dark_Cloud_Overhead]

1 hour ago, 1pooh4u said:

That wasn’t a dunk they’re proud of us for it. ☹️

Having the Taliban applaud you for anything is a dunk.

[1pooh4u]

17 minutes ago, Dark_Cloud_Overhead said:

Having the Taliban applaud you for anything is a dunk.

I got you but that’s definitely not their intention they actually think they’re saying something great. Maybe the meanings have changed but a dunk used to be an insult. In this case the people that should feel insulted by this won’t 

[katt_goddess]

8 hours ago, 1pooh4u said:

It wasn’t the same people though and the democrats lost demographics they’re never getting them back.  It might be democrats that never win another election, especially if they’re thinking like you are. 

If it makes anyone feel better, large chunks of those demographics will be lost to both parties if any of Drumpf's wishlist items are passed alongside the sort of wishlist item certain other members of his cult want. 

Can't vote if you've been swept up and tossed into a concentration camp/'deported' for not looking 'American' or if all your rights have been pulled because your gender now requires a master to give you marching orders. 

Third possibility - Fatboy goes tits up but his higher level cult members immediately canonize him and claim that he's personally left a million notes for the running of the country for the next 100 years that will be 'revealed' when needed. Since he's on the record as wanting to get rid of the Constitution because it hurts his fee-fees, will be a dictator on day one, and people will 'never have to vote again', there's that possibility of those able to survive his stench using it to stay in charge of things. 

[new_disease]

2 hours ago, SwimOdin said:

Biden should have done what he intimated in 2020: a one-term president so there could’ve been a real primary. 

I know it wont happen but there should be primaries before every presidential election. Electing someone new to a 4 year term needs to stop being treated as an 8 year commitment. 

This could probably be worded better but hopefully people get what I mean. 

[Dark_Cloud_Overhead]

30 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

I got you but that’s definitely not their intention they actually think they’re saying something great. Maybe the meanings have changed but a dunk used to be an insult. In this case the people that should feel insulted by this won’t 

Yeah, except it doesn't exactly seem like sincere praise of any kind coming from the guy who said it. More like he intended it to be a sarcastic dig at us for criticizing them for their treatment of woman when we continue rejecting letting a woman be our leader. Kind of hard to be sure without a full accurate translation, but the article's title saying he mocked us suggests that at least. Also, him calling America a "great country" I find really hard to believe any Taliban guy really thinks that about us.

[1pooh4u]

Just now, Dark_Cloud_Overhead said:

Yeah, except it doesn't exactly seem like sincere praise of any kind coming from the guy who said it. More like he intended it to be a sarcastic dig at us for criticizing them for their treatment of woman when we continue rejecting letting a woman be our leader. Kind of hard to be sure without a full accurate translation, but the article's title saying he mocked us suggests that at least. Also, him calling America a "great country" I find really hard to believe any Taliban guy really thinks that about us.

I hardly read titles anymore because they make rage bait titles and headlines but yeah the Taliban is not a pro USA group of men but they definitely think they have a chance at being legitimized through Trump. 
 

[naraku360]

1 minute ago, 1pooh4u said:

I hardly read titles anymore because they make rage bait titles and headlines but yeah the Taliban is not a pro USA group of men but they definitely think they have a chance at being legitimized through Trump. 
 

Or get bombed harder so they can recruit even easier.

Edited November 9 by naraku360

[1pooh4u]

17 minutes ago, naraku360 said:

Or get bombed harder so they can recruit even easier.

Definitely a possibility. Where were the bombs dropping when Trump was president last?  Maybe I’m misremembering but with the exception of N Korea testing shit idr a lot going on that wasn’t already happening 

[naraku360]

4 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

Definitely a possibility. Where were the bombs dropping when Trump was president last?  Maybe I’m misremembering but with the exception of N Korea testing shit idr a lot going on that wasn’t already happening 

One of only positives is that he didn't enter new wars.

Just escalated existing ones.

[matrixman124]

So check out these exit polls from the 10 swing states.

The big demographic swinging for Trump isn't Gen Z. It's Gen X. Gen X white guys overwhelmingly voted for Trump.

Fucking hell!

[1pooh4u]

Gen X is so fucked up htf did that happen? 

[naraku360]

5 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

Gen X is so fucked up htf did that happen? 

65+?

Dementia?

[matrixman124]

5 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

Gen X is so fucked up htf did that happen? 

Hitting their midlife crises and deciding to just be boomers to deal with it

[matrixman124]

Just now, naraku360 said:

65+?

Dementia?

That's the boomers and they somehow voted LESS than Gen X guys

[1pooh4u]

18 minutes ago, matrixman124 said:

Hitting their midlife crises and deciding to just be boomers to deal with it

They must be orphans with inherited wealth or something cuz I went completely in the opposite direction I don’t have a pot to piss in or a window to throw it out of.  I wanna know the percentage of those Gen Xers that were 45-50. I’m really curious 

[1pooh4u]

21 minutes ago, naraku360 said:

65+?

Dementia?

Nope. Afraid of losing their social security and they firmly remember a pre internet world and they know this is not normal but mostly it’s fear of losing their government federal benefits 

[naraku360]

1 minute ago, 1pooh4u said:

Nope. Afraid of losing their social security and they firmly remember a pre internet world and they know this is not normal but mostly it’s fear of losing their government federal benefits 

I saw the 95% red bar and my brain stopped working for a second.

[rpgamer]

2 hours ago, 1pooh4u said:

Gen X is so fucked up htf did that happen? 

Parents are starting to die off and they're realizing they really don't have it as well off as they expected, and, yeah, going full boomer to get those "good old days" benefits.

Possibly also a dash of susceptible to covid misinformation which just set them down all the wrong holes.

Maybe a sprinkle of feeling like they know better than anyone younger than them.

Just kinda spitballing, no real context or anything to back those up.

[Insipid]

Pittsburgh definitely does deserve the nickname "Paris of Appalachia" More people voted for Harris than anywhere else in the region (it's Allegheny county in this infographic).

Edited November 10 by Insipid

[discolé monade]

it's late. and i am not going to see if this was posted. 

and i'll have to 'research' in the morning, morning. 

but musky musk used starling/internet to track the vote 4 hours prior to end of results. he knew (?)

a man tried to take out the power grid in memphis with a drone armed with explosives (?)

and if you have a menstrual cycle, and you use AN ELECTRONIC TRACKING APP. go back as far as it will allow, input false info, then delete said app. (this is a must)

[scoobdog]

11 hours ago, 1pooh4u said:

I think this attitude is dangerous because it’s lazy and will only lead to more complacency in the Democratic Party. 

I don’t disagree.  The problem with chasing demographics is that it parcels the issue in ways that could have Democrats contradicting themselves.

Ultimately it’s far less important that there are “gains” in certain demographics because, like Icky said, Trump got the same amount of votes as 2016 selling the same message.  He’s not more liked than he was when he got pushed out of office; like then, he’s a stand in for abstract fears that a very specific subset of voters have about our evolving society.  It certainly didn’t help that Kamala is a woman because, more than any specific misogyny, she represents otherness.  Some people expect that a woman isn’t going to represent their interests, or a POC can’t understand what it’s like to have a certain way of life taken from them.  I stand by my assertion that the persistent negativity around Biden’s otherwise sterling handling of the post COVID economic recovery was that these same people didn’t see a place for themselves in that recovery.

All of this is somewhat infantile in nature, but it’s no less real and the consequences are dire.  It also puts the Democrats in an extreme no-win situation.  The reality is that there is no going back.  We’re not going to be able to invest long term in petroleum because that industry has reached the end of its life.  Manufacturing isn’t going to be revitalized with blue collar jobs because automation and robotic machinery have exceeded the abilities of even some specialized workers like electricians and welders.  Where the next generation of workers fits into this is anyone’s guess, though one would expect that this is also an opportunity for up and coming entrepreneurs to stake a claim.

Nonetheless, you’re right.  Democrats are complacent because a lot of this is beyond their control,  but there are important things that they can do.  Rather than simply throwing money at new tech industries, blue state governments need build a comprehensive program for educating and integrating trades people, and funding it heavily.  Local Dems can use all the implements of zoning law to reconfigure communities around these industries,  creating localized spheres where people can work and live.

. . .

TL;DR - Democrats don’t have to change their values or messaging, they have to actually turn those values into communities and populate them with people that can thrive in them.

[CountFrylock]

I hate that politics can’t be peacefully discussed because one side just wants to fuel the country with hatred and racism 

But politics dictate our lives we can’t just ignore them they’ll still affect  us

Nothing changes if politics continue to be viewed as something that only exists to make people fight each other 

Edited November 10 by CountFrylock

[scoobdog]

13 hours ago, Belize said:

 

This gets into the idea that Trump is a singular figure that can pull this off, and no one else can. Once he's out of the picture, his coalition won't exist anymore. It's plausible, but too optimistic to completely rely on. It would be good if it is true, but Dems should be planning in case it's not true and the Trump coalition outlives him. 

Imight think elections are cyclical. Even Trump himself is going to experience a backlash, so maybe groups that swung to him in 2024 can easily swing back the other way when times get tough. 

Trumpism isn’t the issue for future elections if only because none of the problems he claims to have an answer for have solutions.  Those groups will not swing back and the voters that stayed home won’t leave again without a tangible plan for moving forward.  To put it in overly simplistic terms, Democrats need to be industry friendly compared to Republican “business” friendly.

[CountFrylock]

Been reading this comic since trumps victory 

[CountFrylock]

18 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

Trumpism isn’t the issue for future elections if only because none of the problems he claims to have an answer for have solutions.  Those groups will not swing back and the voters that stayed home won’t leave again without a tangible plan for moving forward.  To put it in overly simplistic terms, Democrats need to be industry friendly compared to Republican “business” friendly.

The issue is that we can’t peacefully discuss anything with maga  they’ll get offended and want to fight 

politics are seen by them as an invitation to punch people who don’t love trump 

Even on online they quickly derail a discussion to claim the liberals are slandering trump 

I have a family member like that who constantly posts to Facebook about democrats being so unfair and how things would be  better if we just trusted Donald trump 

[CountFrylock]

Gotta say it’s awkward constantly being bailed out by a trump supporter friend….

Even if I tried selling stuff online I’d need a ride to the post office and we don’t have a reliable vehicle right  now 

I gave GoFundMe a go to try and pay the essentials but only got a couple hundred dollars so once again needed to be bailed out by mister trump supporter 

Any attempts I make to avoid that conclusion either fail or just don’t work period due to my circumstances 

 

[Jman]

The downballot races are going to be weird to study.  Like how Ruben Gallego got more votes than Harris to beat Kari Lake.

[Insipid]

I guess westpark was right, BATHLs are destroying America, liberal in the neoliberal sense.

Edit: On second thought, I don't even have to correct the liberal part. These liberals allowed worker rights to get eroded, which is the main problem. All these tech companies are profoundly anti union.

Edited November 10 by Insipid

[Belize]

A recession sometime in 2025 to 2029 would be one of the least bad things to happen. I would be relieved if it was just that. That's how scary the future is.