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2022 Midterms: Oh god, not again

Master-Debater131

By Master-Debater131
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Raptorpat Monster Mutant

Raptorpat

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33 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

he’s consistently leading against Warnock.  

I don't think the challenge for Warnock is necessarily to win on election night. His real challenge is to clear 50%+1 to avoid a run off, though the future circumstances of a hypothetical run off would affect who it benefits.

Screenshot_20221005-155109.png

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1pooh4u Monster Mutant

1pooh4u

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1 hour ago, Raptorpat said:

I don't think the challenge for Warnock is necessarily to win on election night. His real challenge is to clear 50%+1 to avoid a run off, though the future circumstances of a hypothetical run off would affect who it benefits.

Screenshot_20221005-155109.png

It shouldn’t even close like that. That’s insane. 

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scoobdog Monster Mutant

scoobdog

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2 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

I don't think the challenge for Warnock is necessarily to win on election night. His real challenge is to clear 50%+1 to avoid a run off, though the future circumstances of a hypothetical run off would affect who it benefits.

Screenshot_20221005-155109.png

 

56 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

It shouldn’t even close like that. That’s insane. 

It is insane, but any other situation would be highly suspect.  What Warnock has been doing runs against anything the predominantly White and Republican electorate (as opposed to eligible voters) would ever find acceptable, yet the small share for the Libertarian candidate and Other / Undecided taking up a single digit share speaks to how engaged both sides are in this election.  It's not that Walker should have less as much as the alternatives should be taking a bigger share of the poll results in an election where one side of the partisan divide would traditionally be less motivated.  It also hints as to why McConnell is so pessimistic about the GOPs chances of gains in the Senate.

FWIW, some polls have Warnock with a double digit lead.

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Raptorpat Monster Mutant

Raptorpat

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1 hour ago, 1pooh4u said:

It shouldn’t even close like that. That’s insane. 

The problem is that there are two types of states: 

  • elastic states with a lot of voters who flip back and forth from election to election
  • polarized states where voters always back their side 100% of the time

New Hampshire is a competitive "elastic" state, where a lot of people flip back and forth based on the national mood and candidate quality. That the GOP couldn't find a quality candidate basically took that state of the map.

GA is a competitive 50/50 "polarized" state. Unlike NH, there is no convincing to do beyond convincing your own base to turn out. I recall Brad Raffensperger testified something along the lines that what pushed Biden over the edge (after the high Dem turnout) wasn't GOP-Biden voters, it was that 30K Republicans who voted left the top line blank. So to that end, this isn't going to swing votes, it's a question of whether those 30K are going to leave this line blank too.

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Seight Monster Mutant

Seight

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9 hours ago, matrixman124 said:

The midterms are becoming a display of "how much shit are GOP voters willing to swallow to retake Congress"

"Abbot made abortion illegal in Texas? I mean it's a small sacrifice for state rights???"

"Herschel Walker paid for abortions and abandoned his family? Uh he won a Heisman Award so"

"Dr. Oz experimented on puppies? I mean we really need to protect the children so...."

Let's Remember Some Guys

*starts thinking about Roy Moore*

I changed my mind, let's not do that.

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SwimModSponges Monster Mutant

SwimModSponges

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https://www.npr.org/2022/10/10/1127872936/senator-tuberville-racist-reparations-stereotype

Hooo boy...

Quote

The lawmaker was invited to speak at a pro-Trump rally in Minden, Nevada to support Republican candidates ahead of November's midterm elections. In an overwhelming white crowd, Tuberville criticized Democrats for being "pro-crime."

"They want crime because they want to take over what you got. They want to control what you have. They want reparations because they think the people that do the crime are owed that," Tuberville added. "Bullsh*t! They are not owed that."

 

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matrixman124

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So Fetterman had an interview on NBC news. He is able to communicate with the help of closed captioning and has trouble without CC.

What's happening is that he had some small talk with Dasha Burns before the interview without CC and he had trouble understanding her. And now, her statement is being taken out of context to mean that he couldn't understand her at all.

If the guy can understand with CC, what's the problem? What if this was a deaf person who didn't put in their hearing aid before an interview? Do we see the ableism at play here?

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SwimModSponges Monster Mutant

SwimModSponges

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https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/education/2022/10/13/wisconsin-technical-college-board-members-serve-beyond-expired-terms/8136606001/

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Mary Williams isn't budging.

The former GOP state representative from northern Wisconsin who was appointed by former Republican Gov. Scott Walker to the Technical College System Board continues to serve despite her term expiring in May 2021 and Gov. Tony Evers naming her replacement months ago.

“All you have to do is see what the Supreme Court did,” she said. 

Williams and two other holdovers on the board whose terms expired in May 2021 — Associated Builders and Contractors vice president Kelly Tourdot and Rio dairy farmer Becky Levzow — are emboldened to stay since the state Supreme Court ruled this summer that it's OK for political appointees to continue serving beyond their terms. 

 

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Ginguy Freakin Mutant

Ginguy

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https://www.saudiembassy.net/statements/statement-ministry-foreign-affairs-regarding-statements-issued-about-kingdom-following

Well quid pro Joe just got told to pound sand regarding his scheme to meddle with an election. Pretty sure there were all kinds of committees and investigations for that kind of thing....

 

Oh, in other, unrelated news apparently the Census bureau made a bit of an oopsie in the population counting. Nothing to see here, just 6 blue States being overcounted and 5 Red States  (and Illinois) being undercounted. Not like House representation or Electoral votes are based on this. Total coincidence. Nothing to see here.

http://archive.today/PzmDP

 

 

Those little things aside, I'm curious to see how the Dem national strategy of "No debates" and messaging of "We fucked things up but made them slightly less awful" is going to play out at the polls. I'm betting not well, but I haven't been paying much attention to it this cycle.

 

 

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scoobdog Monster Mutant

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1 minute ago, Ginguy said:

Those little things aside, I'm curious to see how the Dem national strategy of "No debates" and messaging of "We fucked things up but made them slightly less awful" is going to play out at the polls. I'm betting not well, but I haven't been paying much attention to it this cycle.

Uh oh.  That's not a good sign for the right.

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Gammenon Citizen

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50 minutes ago, Ginguy said:

Those little things aside, I'm curious to see how the Dem national strategy of "No debates" and messaging of "We fucked things up but made them slightly less awful" is going to play out at the polls. I'm betting not well, but I haven't been paying much attention to it this cycle.

 

 

Well, my mysterious twin poster...Biden got elected just by staying in his basement so that might not be a bad strategy.

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naraku360 Monster Mutant

naraku360

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4 minutes ago, Gammenon said:

Well, my mysterious twin poster...Biden got elected just by staying in his basement so that might not be a bad strategy.

Remember when it was an alpha move for Trump to fill his geriatric diapers and run from debates?

Gotta love Ginguy's unwillingness to have any stances of his own.

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Raptorpat Monster Mutant

Raptorpat

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Here is the guy who wrote the op-ed in "the epoch times" (and who apparently doesn't know how to count) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_von_Spakovsky 

Here is an excerpt from a grown-up source from back in May:

Quote

The geography of the miscounts also points to other potential causes. Five of the six states with population undercounts were in the Deep South, while six of the eight states that were most overcounted were in the North, and particularly the Northeast.

Some Southern states like Florida and Texas have large populations of Hispanic people, who were badly undercounted on a national scale. The South also was hit by hurricanes in the latter stages of the count. And when census takers began fanning out to conduct personal interviews in August 2020, the South was coming off a major summertime spike in coronavirus cases.

There could also be a political dimension to the results. Five of the six undercounted states are solidly Republican, while six of the eight overcounted ones are largely Democratic.

The antigovernment tenor of the Trump administration and Republican governors in 2020 could have raised suspicions about the census in some states, just as attacks on immigrants depressed responses by Hispanics and other people of color, said Steve Jost, a census consultant who was deeply involved in the effort to increase response to the count.

“Leaders who attack the government in the middle of the government’s biggest peacetime enterprise shouldn’t be surprised to discover their states didn’t perform as well as others.” Mr. Jost said.

He also noted another telling indicator: All but one of the states with population overcounts, an inaccuracy that can prove beneficial through additional political representation and federal funding, mounted their own campaigns to convince residents to fill out census forms. All but one of the states that were undercounted spent no money to promote the census.

“Some states put money into it big-time, and other states did not,” said Kenneth Prewitt, a Columbia University scholar who oversaw the 2000 census. “And the states that put in money did better in terms of getting to the plus or minus that you want.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/us/2020-census-miscount-states.html

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