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Putin: "Stick to the timeline!"


tsar4

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In June 1915, the Russians were expelled from L'viv, and by October, all of Galicia was liberated from them. The press of that time very picturesquely described the retreat of the Russians, who were dragging the loot with them in carts. Furniture, bedding, dishes and... "night vases"!
Here's a look at this postcard from 1915! A century has already passed, but nothing has changed in Russia! Except that the trophies have become a little different: toilets and used hair dryers, iPhones and dog houses.

image.png.386f74e416c47e3301257b34664056ef.png

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Wish for a miracle today? Ukrainians have long been creating them themselves.
To wish for real friends? We already know who they are.
To want a true love? This year we felt it more than ever.
To have faith and hope? Both have been in the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a long time.
Do you wish for the comfort of your home? He is where we and our loved ones are.
To wish for the light? It is in all of us, even when there is no electricity.
Want an adventure and travel? Now Ukrainians got them way too much.
So today only one wish.
And it will manifest not by a miracle, but by our work. The struggle. Helping one another. With humanity.
Happy New Year! The year of our victory.

Happy New Year! The year of our victory.

- Volodymyr Zelenskyy

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It's New Year again. Everywhere in the world it is celebrated - but not at the same time - not at this moment.

Right now, there are parties in Asia. Soon, the turn of the year will also reach Europe and Denmark, and tonight it will continue westward, heading for America. The circle is closed. All over the world, people's lives are connected for better and for worse. It has rarely been more clear than at this time.

On February 24, Ukraine was invaded. It is upsetting to witness the suffering of the Ukrainian people. Heroically they fight for their freedom, it makes a strong impression on us all.

Many Ukrainians have come to Denmark after the outbreak of war, and the Danes have welcomed them. Many have opened their home, workplace, football club - and their hearts. When we help each other, we light a light in the dark. It's the least we can do.

Many of the refugees are women and children. They are of course deeply worried about their family members left behind, but despite that, many have a strong desire to provide for themselves and to create as normal an everyday life as possible for the children. They all naturally hope to be able to return home as soon as possible.

My first New Year's greeting tonight goes to the Ukrainians in Denmark and to the entire Ukrainian people. May this terrible war come to an end and may your proud and beautiful land flourish again.

Queen Margrethe II of Denmark

https://www.kongehuset.dk/nyheder/laes-h-m-dronningens-nytaarstale-2022

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Americans don't even know the recent history between America and Russia post-USSR -- how USA destroyed that country in the 90's -- let alone what their own country has done elsewhere to others. 

The vague notion of "US war crimes" gets shrugged away, as propagandized American mythologies about the evil bloodlusting """imperialist empire''"" of modern day Russia take precedence in their mind. The American lies and fakery and whitewashed history becomes the lens through which Americans view their country's wars all over the world, from Iraq to Syria to Yemen to Ukraine and all the many dozens of other countries we invade and cordon off territory and conduct military operations and drone strikes in every single year with complete legal and international impunity.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Seight said:

I see we're at the three quotation marks portion of the program now.

I was more or less amused by the Call of Duty reference, because that is where I get my historical information and I'm sure every CoD player is well versed in American politics and imperialism and don't just want to shoot people and yell n#@@$& over the mic.

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The only good Nazi is a dead Nazi, unless the CIA supports them in a proxy war against America's enemies... Then those Nazis deserve all the weapons, money, and prayers our flagging evil empire can muster. 

Punch a Nazi, unless they're Ukrainian, in which case arm them to the teeth and publicly root for their victory on the battlefield. 

 

 

Screenshot_20230107-095309-637.thumb.png.be0329ae47a473b73145bd3bfd6efeb6.png

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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/world/europe/german-defense-minister-resigns-after-weeks-of-criticism.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

Its paywalled. The TL:DR is that Germany's defense minister has resigned due to her handling of the Ukraine war, among other things.

 

This probably also signals a shift in how the EU handles weapons shipments to Ukraine. Germany has been stonewalling the delivery of some of the more modern and advanced systems, including Tanks. Now that she is out that could change. Good news for Ukraine, and the rest of Europe really.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/putin-could-be-ready-to-announce-a-second-mobilization-drive-analysts-say.html

Putin could be ready to announce a second mobilization drive

 

Putin is hellbent on destroying his country for multiple generations to try and win an unwinnable war. His first mobilization failed to change the outcome of the war, and this one will be no different. The weapons that the West is giving to Ukraine are proving to be so far ahead of anything Russia has that its laughable. All this is is throwing more bodies into a meat grinder.

Really have to wonder at what people do the people in Russia, or someone close to Putler himself, say "no" and take him out.

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14 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

Sure…. Until Russia collapses.  

what if it doesn't though? Theyre the scorched earth poster childs and specialize in suicidal wars where they throw their people straight into the meat grinder until it works.

6th largest military by soldiers, 9th most populous contry

their tanks have issues but they got 13,500 of them

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_level_of_military_equipment

and if russia, iran, china, north korea really do form an alliance? WW3

NATO vs russia

iran vs saudi arabia, israel

+ the middle east civil wars / who knows wtf would happen in turkey

china, DPRK vs japan, australia, philipines, taiwan

civil war in india

chaos in africa

and us, the masters of war, involved in all theaters

idk scooby dooby

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2 hours ago, scoobdog said:

They will.  I mean Russia isn’t going to collapse as a country, but their campaign will.

 And, there isn’t going to be WWIII when it will basically be China against the rest of the world.

I dunno scoob

it would be china + north korea + russia + iran + their minor allies + potentially half of india

Edited by Poofy
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The war needs to end, but Ukraine has to win. That's the message from all the NATO leaders.

So if Russia won't stop, then that's that, it's another perpetual proxy war of attrition. Iran, North Korea, and China are buying from Russia. That's enough to ignore sanctions elsewhere and continue fighting.

It'll just be a question of whether the war spills out of Ukraine. If it stays contained, it can go on indefinitely. There's nothing that would force Russia to just stop.

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Even the war in Afghanistan (the USSR's war I mean) didn't go on indefinitely.

And, you're right, NATO is making it abundantly clear that the war has to end with the withdrawal of Russia from the Ukraine.  They don't really have a choice - despite Russians attempting to retcon this into a response to Western aggression, the special military operation was disproportionate to the supposed NATO incursions even by their own standards.  Russians invading so close to NATO territories and explicitly defining it as a proxy for actions by NATO means the western alliance now has a vested defensive interest in expelling the Russians.  That's why the West is willing to further enrage Russians by sending tanks - the Kremlin has defined the conflict a certain way continuously throughout the operation that allows for NATO and its member to respond the way they have.  Through it all, the moratorium on incursions into Russia itself is undoubtedly still in place, signifying the one real "red line" that represents a change in position from defender to attacker for the West.

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They’re not sending the cheap tanks either, they’re sending a battalion of Abrams along with all those European Leopard tanks, which are widely viewed as completely outclassing anything on either side right now.  
 

The noted engagements of Abrams vs Russian tanks occurred in both Iraq wars, and the Abrams wiped the floor with their Russian counterparts.

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1 hour ago, scoobdog said:

Even the war in Afghanistan (the USSR's war I mean) didn't go on indefinitely.

And, you're right, NATO is making it abundantly clear that the war has to end with the withdrawal of Russia from the Ukraine.  They don't really have a choice - despite Russians attempting to retcon this into a response to Western aggression, the special military operation was disproportionate to the supposed NATO incursions even by their own standards.  Russians invading so close to NATO territories and explicitly defining it as a proxy for actions by NATO means the western alliance now has a vested defensive interest in expelling the Russians.  That's why the West is willing to further enrage Russians by sending tanks - the Kremlin has defined the conflict a certain way continuously throughout the operation that allows for NATO and its member to respond the way they have.  Through it all, the moratorium on incursions into Russia itself is undoubtedly still in place, signifying the one real "red line" that represents a change in position from defender to attacker for the West.

None of the lip service from either side matters. Even our open ended "security" promise to Ukraine for them giving up their nukes doesn't really matter all that much.

It's just a zero-sum game now. That's all that matters. Ukraine was neutral, but now, regardless of how we got here, either Russia is gonna get it, or it's going to join NATO, and it's a much more significant prize than afghanistan.

So I didn't mean it *will* go on forever. The Ukrainians could still surrender on their own without us giving up on them, or there could be a diplomatic solution. I just don't think it will end by Russia succombing to attrition since they have so many people, natural resources, and china, north korea, iran as trade partners.

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1 hour ago, Jman said:

They’re not sending the cheap tanks either, they’re sending a battalion of Abrams along with all those European Leopard tanks, which are widely viewed as completely outclassing anything on either side right now.  
 

The noted engagements of Abrams vs Russian tanks occurred in both Iraq wars, and the Abrams wiped the floor with their Russian counterparts.

If you watch the netflix doc "Age of Tanks" they go over some reasons why Iraq performed so badly. The tanks were fine, but they had obsolete ammo. We were using the new depleted uranium shells with better range trajectory and penetration.

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1 hour ago, Poofy said:

None of the lip service from either side matters. Even our open ended "security" promise to Ukraine for them giving up their nukes doesn't really matter all that much.

It's just a zero-sum game now. That's all that matters. Ukraine was neutral, but now, regardless of how we got here, either Russia is gonna get it, or it's going to join NATO, and it's a much more significant prize than afghanistan.

So I didn't mean it *will* go on forever. The Ukrainians could still surrender on their own without us giving up on them, or there could be a diplomatic solution. I just don't think it will end by Russia succombing to attrition since they have so many people, natural resources, and china, north korea, iran as trade partners.

It's not a zero-sum game.  The damage is real and permanent, but it's not unrecoverable.  Russia's best bet has always been to pull out, let time heal wounds and try to "conquer" Ukraine through its own political processes.  That get even more remote the more people they murder and the more they destroy the country.

Edit:  I should qualify that.  Obviously, I don't see Russia making Ukraine part of its territory, but it's important to note that there are still a significant number of ethnic Russians there.  That's evidenced by the separatist groups there.  It's also why, leading up to 2014, the general subtext wasn't an ethnic schism - it was neglect by Putin and Russia.  The start of this conflict was the result of Putin pushing some particularly inept politicians into power, forcing a voter revolt that, in turn, introduced a more Western friendly administration.  To "conquer" in this context is to return Russia to the influential economic and political partner it has historically been following the break up of the Soviet Union, and that's the only realistic path that existed prior to the invasion.

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On 1/25/2023 at 6:43 PM, scoobdog said:

It's not a zero-sum game.  The damage is real and permanent, but it's not unrecoverable.  Russia's best bet has always been to pull out, let time heal wounds and try to "conquer" Ukraine through its own political processes.  That get even more remote the more people they murder and the more they destroy the country.

Edit:  I should qualify that.  Obviously, I don't see Russia making Ukraine part of its territory, but it's important to note that there are still a significant number of ethnic Russians there.  That's evidenced by the separatist groups there.  It's also why, leading up to 2014, the general subtext wasn't an ethnic schism - it was neglect by Putin and Russia.  The start of this conflict was the result of Putin pushing some particularly inept politicians into power, forcing a voter revolt that, in turn, introduced a more Western friendly administration.  To "conquer" in this context is to return Russia to the influential economic and political partner it has historically been following the break up of the Soviet Union, and that's the only realistic path that existed prior to the invasion.

if they pull out, ukraine joins NATO, russia loses it forever, and that's why they won't stop. If russia can make them surrender, NATO doesn't get it. Zero-sum game.

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28 minutes ago, Poofy said:

if they pull out, ukraine joins NATO, russia loses it forever, and that's why they won't stop. If russia can make them surrender, NATO doesn't get it. Zero-sum game.

I disagree.  If Russia pulls out right now, then joining NATO isn't a given.  The longer Putin drags this out, the more likely Russia does, in fact, lose Ukraine forever.  

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I'm wondering what would happen if Zelenskyy is killed - would he become a martyr and symbol of the cause?  Would all the supporting countries still back Ukraine?

I know only how stubborn my Grandparents and other Ukrainian relatives were, so I can see them continuing on.

On the opposite side, if someone offed Putin, would that end things (particularly if it was an in-house job)?  Or are they so vested in the fight they'd continue feeding the meat grinder?

Edited by tsar4
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22 hours ago, scoobdog said:

I disagree.  If Russia pulls out right now, then joining NATO isn't a given.  The longer Putin drags this out, the more likely Russia does, in fact, lose Ukraine forever.  

Even if it's not given, Russia won't risk the possibility. Ukraine doesn't even have to officially join NATO. We can put in troops/bases as soon as there's no Russians. Closing the loophole that allowed Russia to attack in the first place.

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23 minutes ago, Poofy said:

Even if it's not given, Russia won't risk the possibility. Ukraine doesn't even have to officially join NATO. We can put in troops/bases as soon as there's no Russians. Closing the loophole that allowed Russia to attack in the first place.

None of this suggests that the Russian campaign won't collapse.

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I’m just saying that nothing I’ve seen suggests that it will collapse. I’m not pro-appeasement at all. I want Russia to get spanked.

And I want China spanked with more sanctions and tariffs for supporting Russia. Way more than what we’re already doing. 

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