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2024 Presidential Elections: the schadenfreude commences


NewBluntsworth

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12 minutes ago, Insipid said:

Loosely from a Borat 2 quote, the mail order bride from shithole country Slovenia has finally made an appearance.

I’m not watching… how much plastic surgery has she done since we last saw her?

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I didn't listen to it because I never listen to what he says, but that looked boring as hell. 

I was expecting Mussolini and what I saw was a late night infomercial preempting programing for 90 minutes.  

Edited by Belize
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i thought about this last night. 

i have voted in every election since i turned 18. 

i don't think i'll be voting. 

not this year. i don't really see the point. neither option is of any value. 

it's way too late in the year to get a new dem candidate, or back harris, because it just is. 

 

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Biden needs to withdraw. He seems frail. I know quite a few white working class people here in Pittsburgh who voted for Trump in 2016 but changed to Biden in 2020. These are the swing voters that ultimately decide the entire election. As it stands now, I see them voting for Trump again.

Democrats could try an aggressive smear campaign with Josh Shapiro. He was involved with prosecuting the Catholic Church sex scandal, and Trump has ties to Epstein. It may just work.

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Well, that sure one of the speeches of all time.

2 hours, 2 freaking hours.

I get that Biden couldnt come close to matching that time, but man that sure drug on. The first part talking about the assassination attempt was really good. Humanized him a bit and humbled him. "I shouldnt be here" was a really good line that sticks out.

Then he couldnt help himself and he went off-script. And things just went downhill when he did. It turned into typical Trumpian rally. It ate away at any good points with his usual rambling.

His best line of the night was when he was talking about how people are being told to accept less and to embrace a decline then he said that we should expect far more and that decline isnt inevitable. Unfortunately that came near the 2 hour mark so most people likely were not tuned in, and it was after his rambling. So any good from that line was probably canceled out by his ramblings.

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The GOP’s Big Working-Class Bet

https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-gops-big-working-class-bet

"In the July New York Times/Siena poll, Biden is losing to Trump by 23 points among working-class likely voters. In their June poll, which was closer to the running average of the polls, Trump led by 17 points among working-class likely voters. Either way, this is a massive shift from the 2020 election where Trump carried these voters by only 4 points and mostly explains why Trump is running ahead this year.

New York Times/Siena also did two July state polls in Pennsylvania and Virginia. Pennsylvania is generally viewed as being the “tipping point” state in this election—the state that, if carried by Trump, would tip the electoral college in his favor. In the Times Pennsylvania poll, where Trump’s lead over Biden is the same as in the polling averages, Trump is carrying likely working-class voters in the state by 18 points. That’s double his 9 point lead among these voters in 2020, according to States of Change data."

 

This is exactly what I have been saying. The GOP is transforming into the party of the working class. Democrats are abandoning this group of people in favor of coastal elites and the GOP is moving in to grab them. The Teamsters President showing up at the RNC, and both Vance and Trump talking about Union jobs in their speech further shows how the GOP is changing into the party of the working class.

It also appears to be working. The polling referenced in the article clearly shows that the GOP is winning that vote, and that firmly puts the rust belt in play for the GOP.

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Pelosi is probably the one behind the "calling Biden to step aside" movement. She's wrong on that, a rare mistake for her.

Also, her private conversations with Biden somehow keep getting leaked. The obvious response: do *not* have any more conversations with her. 

She's done a lot of good over her long career, but it's time for her to retire. Someone else should represent San Francisco in the House. 

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27 minutes ago, Belize said:

Pelosi is probably the one behind the "calling Biden to step aside" movement. She's wrong on that, a rare mistake for her.

Also, her private conversations with Biden somehow keep getting leaked. The obvious response: do *not* have any more conversations with her. 

She's done a lot of good over her long career, but it's time for her to retire. Someone else should represent San Francisco in the House. 

giphy(86).gif.599d2fbb7411d73ee36bc8da4ccf4f9c.gif

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I think Biden will probably drop out. How can he possibly stay in it when both Pelosi and Schumer are even in on the maybe he should go train 

“If I stay there will be trouble. If I go it will be double..,..”

 

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11 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

Joe has to come up with a succession plan.

Too many high ranking Dems are telling him to step down.  He’s going to. He has to if democracy is at stake like he claims.  It’s not enough to be like “democracy is at stake, vote for me” but then not step aside when clearly confidence in Biden has been lost.  

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Dems - please settle the POTUS candidate situation.  I'm tired of hearing about it everywhere I go.

Voters - vote for a platform, vote for a Veep who'd take over should anyone croak, but vote.  Nobody's guaranteed tomorrow, Trump could choke on the Oath of Office where it talks about defending the Constitution and fall over dead.  Harris could die in her sleep.  Any one of us could snuff it for any number of reasons before we take our next breath.  Just do whatever you think is best for the country.

 

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Using this post as a marker for post-convention polling

 

Post-assassination attempt Trump has seen a bump in his polling numbers. All the polls coming out since last weekend show Trump with a lead of 2-5 points, and an RCP average of 3. None have Biden with a lead.

 

Swing state polling shows Trump with a lead outside of the MoE in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona, with an average lead of 4.3 points in the RCP top battleground states. The no-tossup map is 325-213 for Trump.

 

Will be interesting to see if there is any shift in this now that the convention is over.

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2 hours ago, Belize said:

slide1.thumb.png.4e95b15a2966cabcee72336c92e70f23.png

 

This is a slide from a presentation by UCLA political scientist Lynn Vavreck. 

 

To expand on this point, Vavreck says during this presentation: 

"If you only remember one thing, this is what I tell my students, one thing and one thing only... this is the thing to remember. Incumbent parties in growing economies typically win elections."

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1 hour ago, 1pooh4u said:

Those incumbents typically finish sentences, but ok

I believe this would count under "things that people say is what makes this election different from all the rest" when it's not different from all the rest.  

Edited by Belize
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38 minutes ago, Belize said:

I believe this would count under "things that people say is what makes this election different from all the rest" when it's not different from all the rest.  

Whatever gets you to sleep at night 

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Idk guys. He might have a point. I mean, look, the last time an incumbent president lost re-election was *checks notes* four years ago. All of recent history says it just doesn't happen. The masses will always want to vote for someone they know can be president over somebody that's never held the office.

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4 hours ago, Belize said:

I believe this would count under "things that people say is what makes this election different from all the rest" when it's not different from all the rest.  

I believe this here is called "copium" these days.

"Pokemon go to the polls." 🙄

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8 hours ago, rpgamer said:

Idk guys. He might have a point. I mean, look, the last time an incumbent president lost re-election was *checks notes* four years ago. All of recent history says it just doesn't happen. The masses will always want to vote for someone they know can be president over somebody that's never held the office.

You're proving my point. In 2020, the following was the huge dip in real GDP and that's why Trump lost reelection that year. 

2020gdp.thumb.png.b2d5ccba27acf8e5c46a009d1f4231c1.png

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12 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

why

Because I have seen many election cycles when people claimed *something* is the one thing to change the election. The actual thing that supposedly makes the election different from all other elections has varied wildly.

 

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and a few weeks in the 2024 presidential campaign or a sub-question in polls about concerns about Biden's age are not extraordinary evidence.

Edited by Belize
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4 minutes ago, matrixman124 said:

Next best case scenario is Kamala. If the DNC doesn't back her, it's over.

I’m pretty sure Joe wouldn’t bounce unless he was ensured that there was a clear succession plan.

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