1pooh4u Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Let’s just place this here. I’m sure it’s already linked but jic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasqueradeOverture Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 People should forget the election forecasts of people like Nate Silver, The Economist and 538. (Silver doesn't work at 538 anymore despite having founded it; he's moved on and created a new model). I'm talking about the model where they say, "Clinton has a 71% chance of winning" based on an algorithm. (This was Silver's actual final forecast before the 2016 election.) By Silver's own admission, his forecast and the ones like it, are non-falsifiable. After 2016, Silver said his model wasn't wrong because he did give Trump a 29% of winning. The logic follows that he can never be wrong. Non-falsifiablity is what academics guard against, and it's the hallmark of chicanery. Without knowing that beforehand, intelligent people should be tipped off by the specificity. Who the hell can ever say that a candidate has 71.675% of winning? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 6 hours ago, Belize said: People should forget the election forecasts of people like Nate Silver, The Economist and 538. (Silver doesn't work at 538 anymore despite having founded it; he's moved on and created a new model). I'm talking about the model where they say, "Clinton has a 71% chance of winning" based on an algorithm. (This was Silver's actual final forecast before the 2016 election.) By Silver's own admission, his forecast and the ones like it, are non-falsifiable. After 2016, Silver said his model wasn't wrong because he did give Trump a 29% of winning. The logic follows that he can never be wrong. Non-falsifiablity is what academics guard against, and it's the hallmark of chicanery. Without knowing that beforehand, intelligent people should be tipped off by the specificity. Who the hell can ever say that a candidate has 71.675% of winning? Polling is a reflection of a population based on a sample. It's an estimate based on responses. It's never been to state a percent chance of winning definitively. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Is history going to repeat itself? 1968 Chicago - Democratic Convention. LBJ won't run, RFK was assassinated, Humphrey vs McGovern vs McCarthy. Lots of anger and contention outside and inside. "Speaking to you from somewhere in custody, I'm John Chancellor (tv reporter arrested on the convention floor)." Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley on police riot: "The police are not there to create disorder...they're there to preserve disorder!" Outcome: Nixon elected POTUS. FFwd - 2024 Chicago - Democratic Convention. Questions about Biden's ability to perform the duties of the POTUS, some deep-pocket donors threatening to pull support, some high-ranking Dems to meet about determining whether to stick with Biden or propose a second candidate. Contention imminent. Outcome: ? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
discolé monade Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 you know what? biden will drop out/get cancelled/what ever these whippersnappers are into these days. but... if trump does get in....um...won't he be old, senile, dementia ridden schlub we already know? 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 2 hours ago, discolé monade said: if trump does get in....um...won't he be old, senile, dementia ridden schlub we already know? Yes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little_girl_lost Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 A few days late, but still 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 President Biden’s physician met with Parkinson’s disease specialist in White House "top Washington D.C. neurologist had a meeting with President Biden’s personal doctor at the White House earlier this year, visitor logs reviewed by The Post show. Dr. Kevin Cannard, a Parkinson’s disease expert at Walter Reed Medical Center, met with Dr. Kevin O’Connor, and two others at the White House residence clinic on Jan. 17, according to the records, which emerge as questions continue to swirl about the 81-year-old president’s mental health in the wake of his debate debacle last week with former President Trump. Dr. John E. Atwood, a cardiologist are Walter Reed, was also in the 5 P.M. meeting, the White House visitor logs show." https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/president-biden-s-physician-met-with-parkinson-s-disease-specialist-in-white-house/ar-BB1pvSst We deserve some answers from the WH on whats going on. Forget if he is healthy enough to run for relection, are we into 25th Amendment territory? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Is the Independent another NY Post or is it reputable? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-jeffrey-epstein-documents-b2475210.html?ref=upstract.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 1 hour ago, tsar4 said: Is the Independent another NY Post or is it reputable? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-jeffrey-epstein-documents-b2475210.html?ref=upstract.com If it was the Post it would try blaming Biden for this somehow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 On 7/6/2024 at 10:29 AM, 1pooh4u said: Let’s just place this here. I’m sure it’s already linked but jic I watched maybe a quarter of it and while he's certainly more lucid than what I saw of the debate, it didn't seem like it was going anywhere other than him kinda awkwardly repeating that it was just a bad night. I don't know what to make of it. I hate to say this considering the gravity of consequences to the election, but I've totally disengaged from it and most politics. Trump has never had a shot at my vote, and my state is going to Biden, and is one of the last to be counted, so the election typically has already been decided by the time it gets to us. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 1 hour ago, Master-Debater131 said: President Biden’s physician met with Parkinson’s disease specialist in White House "top Washington D.C. neurologist had a meeting with President Biden’s personal doctor at the White House earlier this year, visitor logs reviewed by The Post show. Dr. Kevin Cannard, a Parkinson’s disease expert at Walter Reed Medical Center, met with Dr. Kevin O’Connor, and two others at the White House residence clinic on Jan. 17, according to the records, which emerge as questions continue to swirl about the 81-year-old president’s mental health in the wake of his debate debacle last week with former President Trump. Dr. John E. Atwood, a cardiologist are Walter Reed, was also in the 5 P.M. meeting, the White House visitor logs show." https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/president-biden-s-physician-met-with-parkinson-s-disease-specialist-in-white-house/ar-BB1pvSst We deserve some answers from the WH on whats going on. Forget if he is healthy enough to run for relection, are we into 25th Amendment territory? I see you have discovered the annual physical that the president of the United States undergoes. The results of the physical were released by the White House in February. Biden had tests for Parkinson's, stroke, multiple sclerosis and cervical myelopathy, which were all negative. Health-Summary-2.28.pdf (whitehouse.gov) 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 41 minutes ago, naraku360 said: I watched maybe a quarter of it and while he's certainly more lucid than what I saw of the debate, it didn't seem like it was going anywhere other than him kinda awkwardly repeating that it was just a bad night. I don't know what to make of it. I hate to say this considering the gravity of consequences to the election, but I've totally disengaged from it and most politics. Trump has never had a shot at my vote, and my state is going to Biden, and is one of the last to be counted, so the election typically has already been decided by the time it gets to us. Biden will probably win my state. My state hasn’t went to a republican presidential candidate since 1984. I don’t see Trump winning NY this time either but no one gaf about NY anyway 😆 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 https://www.rawstory.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-stupid-declaration-independence/ G. Washington, Paul Revere among those she thinks signed the Declaration of Independence. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 1 hour ago, tsar4 said: https://www.rawstory.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-stupid-declaration-independence/ G. Washington, Paul Revere among those she thinks signed the Declaration of Independence. She’s a fuckin idiot Everyone educated in the US should be able to name at least 3 signers correctly. She could only get 2 and it was probably by accident 😆 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
discolé monade Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 tsar snatched my headline for the MTG thread...and i'm ok with it. she is the exact reason why our country is failing. she is the exact reason why democracy has gotten out of control - i don't mean to say she started all of this, oh no, this stew of idiocy has been simmering for a while. she's just the type* that is needed for what is to come. and it's coming if i've said it once, i've said a quatrillion times: POTENTIAL CANDIDATES NEED TO BE VETTED!!! basic civics, u.s. history, world history would be a fucking bonus, and a complete understanding and knowledge of the constitution. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 I’d start with bringing back the Fairness Doctrine. Fucking Limbaugh. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasqueradeOverture Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 3 hours ago, tsar4 said: https://www.rawstory.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-stupid-declaration-independence/ G. Washington, Paul Revere among those she thinks signed the Declaration of Independence. Damn, I was certain Wishbone signed it. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 For people to become citizens of the US they have to take a 10 questions civics exam and they have to take an exam that assesses their writing reading and speaking skills in English Anyone wanting to hold a federal office should pass that same exact exam or at the very least take the same exam and publicize the results 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katt_goddess Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 6 hours ago, MasqueradeOverture said: I could say the same about all the people acting like this is the only news to come out of that dismal 'debate'. They'd probably draw a square and write '25:00 fm' in the center. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 The Parkinson's disease speculation about Biden is amusing because of course I would vote for someone who has Parkinson's. I guess I'm progressive like that. Oh no! The president has a movement disorder. The horror. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 31 minutes ago, Belize said: The Parkinson's disease speculation about Biden is amusing because of course I would vote for someone who has Parkinson's. I guess I'm progressive like that. Oh no! The president has a movement disorder. The horror. Parkinson’s isn’t just a movement disorder. People with the disease also suffer psychological symptoms, Robin Williams being a notable example. That being said, there is no evidence Biden is experiencing symptoms of Parkinson’s. At his most recent physical he tested negative for it. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
discolé monade Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 24 minutes ago, Belize said: The Parkinson's disease speculation about Biden is amusing because of course I would vote for someone who has Parkinson's. I guess I'm progressive like that. Oh no! The president has a movement disorder. The horror. this. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 2 hours ago, scoobdog said: Parkinson’s isn’t just a movement disorder. People with the disease also suffer psychological symptoms, Robin Williams being a notable example. That being said, there is no evidence Biden is experiencing symptoms of Parkinson’s. At his most recent physical he tested negative for it. This also Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s often go hand in hand. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 hour ago, 1pooh4u said: This also Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s often go hand in hand. Recognizing real world concerns over possibly health concerns of the mummy? Ableism. In fact, if you wouldn't vote for someone with the mental age of a 10 year old you must not really be progrsssive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 hour ago, naraku360 said: Recognizing real world concerns over possibly health concerns of the mummy? Ableism. In fact, if you wouldn't vote for someone with the mental age of a 10 year old you must not really be progrsssive. Shut up, Scoob. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Election polls conducted one week before the election reflect the actual results within the poll's stated statistical margin of error only 60% of the time. For ten weeks prior to the election, it drops to 50% of the time. https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/election-polls-are-95-confident-but-only-60-accurate-berkeley-haas-study-finds/ I love election polls. They're fun in a way. But I only read them with the level of seriousness they deserve. (Not much. They have about an even chance of actually resembling the election.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 8 hours ago, scoobdog said: Shut up, Scoob. shut up scoob 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Its amazing watching reporters actually do their job after years of taking a vacation. Watching them suddenly realize what most of us have been saying for years is truly a sight to behold. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 USA Today has reported that a new hypothetical poll has Kamala Harris beating Trump in a hypothetical matchup due to her not being a geriatric or a raging Hitler wannabe. Grain of salt like all polls however. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 CNN with a great explanation of what is happening with the polls right now. Trump is in a position that no Republican candidate has been in since George Bush in 2000. No GOP candidate has led at this point in the polling for nearly 25 years. As it stands today, there's a very real possibility that Trump could win the popular vote. CNN also disproves the myth among Democrats right now that the polls are just under sampling them and they will outperform the polls. If anything, they are actually under reporting on Trumps support. Trump has outperformed the polls every time he was on the ballot, +3 in 2016 and +5 in 2020. The whole idea that the polls need to be "adjusted" to account for under represented Democrats is the same kind of thinking that Romney supporters had before he lost to Obama. Since the debate there has been a consistent shift amongst most polls toward Trump. The general shift has been around 3 points, which is enough to get Trump back into the White House. Even polls that typically favor Democrats are showing Trump with a lead. Its true that polls are only a snapshot in time, and things can change, but this is also not a normal election. Trump has been leading for a while now, both have a track record to run on, and both candidates images are pretty set. It would take something truly historic to fundamentally alter the trajectory of this race right now. Biden isnt going to get any younger, and Trump isnt going to be less of an asshole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 There's a lot of interesting information one can test and consider in that CNN segment, but one that made me go "huh?" was this one. In what way was the 2022 midterm elections "the Trump era"? The guy who was out of power in 2022. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 13 hours ago, naraku360 said: Recognizing real world concerns over possibly health concerns of the mummy? Ableism. In fact, if you wouldn't vote for someone with the mental age of a 10 year old you must not really be progrsssive. Shit has been getting stupid for a while now. The people are running out of copium so now they just say ridiculous shit like comparing Parkinson’s to Polio and if you show any concern at all you’re the piece of shit. Not the people trying to bullshit everyone, but you and I. We’re the assholes here somehow 🤡 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Also @naraku360 you said the word “mummy”in reference to a geriatric human, you’re entering “you’re a super trash walking dumpster person” territory now. Be careful, friend. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 48 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said: Shit has been getting stupid for a while now. The people are running out of copium so now they just say ridiculous shit like comparing Parkinson’s to Polio and if you show any concern at all you’re the piece of shit. Not the people trying to bullshit everyone, but you and I. We’re the assholes here somehow 🤡 Even if he did have Parkinson's, it's only a movement disorder*! * Spoiler With an 80% prevalence of dementia and Alzheimer’s.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Doesn’t matter that that person has been in politics their entire adult life controlling and maintaining the status quo in one form or another. It only matters that you express concerns now that they’re 81 and losing a few steps. Biden, he must be protected at all costs against ableism and ageism 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 minute ago, naraku360 said: Even if he did have Parkinson's, it's only a movement disorder*! * Reveal hidden contents With an 80% prevalence of dementia and Alzheimer’s.... Tsk tsk how dare you mention this truth without a medical degree. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 3 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said: Also @naraku360 you said the word “mummy”in reference to a geriatric human, you’re entering “you’re a super trash walking dumpster person” territory now. Be careful, friend. Sorry. That was pretty racist, wasn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 The reality is that all of this discussion about whether or not Biden is fit to be running really has to be dealt with at least a month before the convention. The more I think about it, the more it occurs to me that most of these questions about his mental fitness are just a proxy for questions about the basic malaise that has surrounded his presidency from almost the beginning. That's not to suggest that concerns about his longevity are not valid, just that all this talk about reporters ignoring his health is generally misplaced and misleading. To this point, we haven't seen any evidence that he's actually ill or infirmed, and his obvious age has been a known quantity from the very beginning with the various anecdotes about him resurfacing only because the very same questions most people were asking when Biden was first elected are also resurfacing. What we did see was a failed stress test with that debate that exposed all of the issues we expected they would show, particularly the fact that Biden is still fighting his stutter, he's an old man that isn't well suited for the fast pace of an angry, bruising debate (which is notably easier when you're a bald face liar), and that he's never been the polished dynamo that people expect after a ground breaking President Obama. This general lack of Obama-like presence is the root of his unpopularity. A lot has been made about the fact that Biden isn't trusted with the economy even though the economy has been solidly stable throughout his presidency, and that comes from a belief that Joe Biden, as good and honorable a man as he is, isn't going to take charge in a situation where people expect him to. That's never been his MO, and it's not in the DNA of truly great negotiators, all of whom excel at that ability to make otherwise dominant voices in a negotiation listen to each other. I would argue that this has always made Biden a bad fit for the presidency, yet it was really the reason most people elected him in the first place - he was going to unify government not by dominating it in an authoritarian way but but by forcing the many factions to listen when things were dire. It got us through at least two potential government shutdowns, which is just about as far as we can get negotiating with an irrational opponent. That skill probably also won't be enough to win him a second term, at least in the absence of a truly monstrous opponent. All of this is to say that all this discussion about his health is smoke over a valid discussion of whether or not he's the right personality to take us into a second term. I don't necessarily believe we need someone who's a fighter on par with Trump to compete, but we most certainly need someone who can be unflinching in the face of the abuse, which Biden was definitively not. Kamala Harris deserves a shot at the presidency by being in-waiting throughout this first term, and she's more than qualified as a politician. I don't know if she has that presidential quality, and nobody can know until she's put through the same gauntlet Biden is going through. We're running out of time to get her and any other potential candidate out there to do that as a viable alternate to Biden at the top of the ticket. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 5 hours ago, naraku360 said: shut up scoob Shut up, Scoob2 (But seriously, I bestow this upon you as sign of my deepest respect.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
[classic swim] Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 14 hours ago, naraku360 said: Recognizing real world concerns over possibly health concerns of the mummy? Ableism. In fact, if you wouldn't vote for someone with the mental age of a 10 year old you must not really be progrsssive. He also put homophobia on the equally same bar as not wanting Mr. Magoo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 27 minutes ago, scoobdog said: Shut up, Scoob2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 minute ago, naraku360 said: And then they made out in front of Shaggy and Scooby. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 42 minutes ago, scoobdog said: The reality is that all of this discussion about whether or not Biden is fit to be running really has to be dealt with at least a month before the convention. The more I think about it, the more it occurs to me that most of these questions about his mental fitness are just a proxy for questions about the basic malaise that has surrounded his presidency from almost the beginning. That's not to suggest that concerns about his longevity are not valid, just that all this talk about reporters ignoring his health is generally misplaced and misleading. To this point, we haven't seen any evidence that he's actually ill or infirmed, and his obvious age has been a known quantity from the very beginning with the various anecdotes about him resurfacing only because the very same questions most people were asking when Biden was first elected are also resurfacing. What we did see was a failed stress test with that debate that exposed all of the issues we expected they would show, particularly the fact that Biden is still fighting his stutter, he's an old man that isn't well suited for the fast pace of an angry, bruising debate (which is notably easier when you're a bald face liar), and that he's never been the polished dynamo that people expect after a ground breaking President Obama. This general lack of Obama-like presence is the root of his unpopularity. A lot has been made about the fact that Biden isn't trusted with the economy even though the economy has been solidly stable throughout his presidency, and that comes from a belief that Joe Biden, as good and honorable a man as he is, isn't going to take charge in a situation where people expect him to. That's never been his MO, and it's not in the DNA of truly great negotiators, all of whom excel at that ability to make otherwise dominant voices in a negotiation listen to each other. I would argue that this has always made Biden a bad fit for the presidency, yet it was really the reason most people elected him in the first place - he was going to unify government not by dominating it in an authoritarian way but but by forcing the many factions to listen when things were dire. It got us through at least two potential government shutdowns, which is just about as far as we can get negotiating with an irrational opponent. That skill probably also won't be enough to win him a second term, at least in the absence of a truly monstrous opponent. All of this is to say that all this discussion about his health is smoke over a valid discussion of whether or not he's the right personality to take us into a second term. I don't necessarily believe we need someone who's a fighter on par with Trump to compete, but we most certainly need someone who can be unflinching in the face of the abuse, which Biden was definitively not. Kamala Harris deserves a shot at the presidency by being in-waiting throughout this first term, and she's more than qualified as a politician. I don't know if she has that presidential quality, and nobody can know until she's put through the same gauntlet Biden is going through. We're running out of time to get her and any other potential candidate out there to do that as a viable alternate to Biden at the top of the ticket. Cállate, Scoob 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobdog Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 minute ago, 1pooh4u said: Cállate, Scoob I don't think that's r.... ... Eh, close enough. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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