Raptorpat

Vance is literally the biggest Senate proponent for dropping aid to Ukraine.

Decision Desk called PA for Trump, which nets him 270 votes.

Nebraska Senate race called for Deb Fischer over Osborne, so the Republicans have the Senate Majority.

Working class people across race and with less than a college education are buying into the messaging, despite the racism.

Happy and shocked to be wrong on that. Not happy if everything else is wrong too.

apparently GA polling sites are being bombarded with fake bomb threats

As of right now if has 55%+ but FL requires 60% I think to pass referenda.

some states count them first and some states count them last

The red/blue mirage effect won't be as strong this year because Trump didn't boycott absentee voting.

rip

nah voter ID is still a big fight in a lot of places

i just have to match a signature, and the lady this time definitely eyeballed it 10 seconds longer than it needed to be eyeballed

i am having second thoughts and want to swing for the fences

ok fuck it I think Kamala is going to win. I don't think every state will be decided tonight, but it will be by a larger margin than Biden won in the critical tipping point states. I think Trump will overperform in the NYC metro region and underperform in the midwest states with ongoing fights over abortion or unpopular abortion bans. This won't affect their toplines (I'll say the candidates trade AZ for NC, otherwise match 2020 results), but it means that the GOP advantage in the electoral college (versus the popular vote) is reduced, and there will be downballot impacts. Swing seat Republican incumbents in the NYC metro region will survive, but they will be traded for seats in the midwest that weren't on top of all the tossup lists. Swing seat Democratic incumbents mostly hold on. Sherrod Brown survives and both the MT and TX Senate races go into overtime. Let's say that populist independent dude wins in Nebraska because partisanship won't override Deb Fischer's pisspoor campaign due to Trump's regional underperformance. Dems flip the House by a slightly larger margin than the GOP in 2022, and we find out in a few days that the GOP probably takes the Senate by one seat (50-49-1). The NYS Prop 1 Equal Rights Amendment fails (due to increased regional GOP performance), but the OH Issue 1 redistricting reform narrowly passes despite every possible GOP attempt to sabotage it.

I feel obligated to make a prediction but I'm struggling, the ghosts of 2016 are too menacing

The obvious answer is that beyond his own personal pet issues, he is the useful idiot. Like the whole Project 2025 thing. I 100% believe him that he has no idea what it is or what's in it. But the people who wrote it are the career Republican policy staff who sit tight in think tanks until their party wins the White House again. It doesn't really matter whether he's heard of it, because they are the ones who will make all the decisions that don't filter up to him.

Dixville Notch, NH just counted its results. Trump and Harris split the town's six votes evenly, three apiece.

I haven't written out any predictions yet but I'd wager Trump overperforms in the greater NYC metro region relative to the rest of the country, like the GOP in 2022. Not enough to flip any states, but possibly enough to help swing seat Republicans in the area to hold their seats.