Raptorpat

edit: i didn't realize the rabies testing was because it bit a cop lol

I'm fairly convinced if there's a significant error in polling that it's overcounting Trump support

lol did you see that seltzer poll, or maybe the nazi rally? I think the odds are better than not that the bottom has completely dropped out from under their campaign

I'm sure it all played out legit, just not sure how it warped into presidential discourse

lol

deep dive on the selzer poll https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

The bottom must have fallen out, white supremacist Richard Spencer is voting for Harris lmao https://nypost.com/2024/11/02/us-news/prominent-white-supremacist-richard-spencer-endorses-kamala-harris/

let's be clear, if this was a story on it's own and wasn't being shoehorned in as an october surprise I would be having a very different conversation

I don't understand the medical science but unfortunately rabies testing (which I assume was obligatory) requires dissecting the brain "good news, no rabies!"

the instagram squirrel's fanbase sit back tswift, this fanbase is so large that it alone could tilt the election

I would guess they got the equivalent of "swatted" except in this case, it was technically illegal

I'm not saying that it wasn't a dumb series of events that led to a dumb outcome, but it's a state agency and local law enforcement enforcing a law they are obligated to enforce. And to say "people are pissed, this could be an election eve gift" just kind of goes to show how fragmented the internet really is, even on mass sites like twitter.

after I saw this I had to look because it was so stupid - it was a joint action between DEC and the Chemung County Sheriff - aka like the reddest of red on the southern tier above PA those darn republican sheriffs, having to enforce state environmental conservation law after getting complaints of a potential violation THIS WILL BE THE OPCTOBER SUPRISE THAT REVERSES FORTUNES

lol how dare millennials prefer quick service takeout over casual chain dining so they can eat at home while doomscrolling on their phones

i was literally going to splice all of that out for having zero to do with anything until that maga press release

I read multiple times they had a campaign call today where they said their internals show they're winning late deciders by double digits to which they credit the nazi rally. I wouldn't be surprised after it's over -If we wanted, we could read into Trump's recent outbursts about PA being stolen and all the social conservative outburstings about the "your husband doesn't have to know how you vote" ad campaign. It was off-record and can't verify though. But even if true, they will never formally announce that because the opposite of anxious is complacent. So anxiety it will be.

happy belated birthday @Hidden and @my-name-here!

Because in 2020/2022, Republicans from Trump-down were actively campaigning for their voters to vote in-person on election day itself, and realized that was a mistake when the Dem mail votes got banked instead of thrown out in court. So in 2024, Republicans from Trump-down are actively campaigning for their voters to vote by any means necessary including by mail and early in-person. The early vote isn't indicative of anything results-wise (beyond that votes are already being banked) until we have election day results in too. We just don't have a lifetime of data/patterns so say it means anything specific beyond spitballing. Early turnout is great, but no one can say whether the early vote is building on or cannibalizing the election day vote. All the pros (when I say "pros" I mean people whose goal is accuracy above all else) say to disregard any early vote tea leaves (unless it's Ralston reporting on NV). So we can reasonably infer Trump is probably ahead of the curve in NV (if those R votes are all for him), but nothing else means anything. Obviously we're all neurotic/anxious and want some kind of signs in the interim, but reading into early vote is just too speculative to be anything more than fun spitballing.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/elon-musks-high-stakes-trump-door-knocking-effort-america-pac-rcna176255

https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-america-pac-blitz-canvassing-michigan-uhaul/