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UnevenEdge

Raptorpat

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Everything posted by Raptorpat

  1. Raptorpat
    that's the rub, a new platform can't supplant the ubiquitous one in that way unless a critical mass for any ecosystem moves there are once
  2. Raptorpat
    it means "more"
  3. Raptorpat
    I'm not going to discount that any of it is true, but RCP is prone to swings in their averages because of their age-out method of averaging polls and their treating all polls evenly regardless of quality. Here's some excerpts from Split-Ticket explaining their own methodology by directly contrasting with RCP: https://split-ticket.org/2024/09/05/our-2024-polling-aggregators-and-how-they-work/
  4. Raptorpat
    happy birthday @PokeNirvash!
  5. Raptorpat
    happy birthday @jezebelthenun!
  6. Raptorpat
    look at that contrast
  7. Raptorpat
    Happy birthday!
  8. Raptorpat
  9. Raptorpat
  10. Raptorpat
    kamala is not nancy pelosi, and nancy pelosi wanted an open mini-primary
  11. Raptorpat
    @gurfgurston is this true
  12. Raptorpat
    I learnt about the growing threat of water wars circa like 2008
  13. Raptorpat
    happy birthday scoob
  14. Raptorpat
    Happy birthday @Stonergoth187!
  15. Raptorpat
    happy birthday tao's ass
  16. Raptorpat
    except Jimmy Carter
  17. Raptorpat
    It's after midnight in GA which means Jimmy Carter is now 100!
  18. Raptorpat
    Actually Silver kept the original model in the divorce. The new 538 built a new model and by most accounts it was completely busted, which is why they delayed for so long in launching the Kamala one (because they had to redo it).
  19. Raptorpat
    He's not using them seriously, it's in jest to make fun of Lichtman's characterizations of his 'keys' method. I think the origin of the Twitter spat was Silver saying he had gone back through all of his prior comments to point out subjectivity and inconsistencies etc. I am of the mindset that the keys stuff is unserious, but I am also way less invested in forecasts than I was ten years ago because the probabilities they spit out for presidential races just aren't verifiable.
  20. Raptorpat
    i have not been following but it's been going on all day
  21. Raptorpat
    it's more like an unpopular weatherman and a fake psychic fighting
  22. Raptorpat
    the biggest internet fight that no one knew they didn't care about
  23. Raptorpat
    happy birthday @theironmaiden!
  24. Raptorpat
    https://www.npr.org/2024/09/26/nx-s1-5130183/newsmax-smartmatic-settlement-defamation-election-lawsuit
  25. Raptorpat
    he would have to reverse every single one of his positions on NYS/NYC issues, *and* he would have to testify to state legislators who he knows hate him every February to plead for more NYC funding in the state budget I just can't picture it happening
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