Raptorpat

Did they confirm? Always the risk of false flag stuff.

Last night I saw that one Russian outlet was claiming it was an attack and another was claiming it was human error.

A surprise to literally no one:

I wouldn't really rely on anything citing the Azov Battalion as it's source. Those guys are the alleged neo-nazis that tie all the narratives together, though I can't say for sure since I didn't follow the conflict prior and everything declarative now is untrustworthy. https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/03/02/what-is-ukraines-azov-battalion/

I definitely wouldn't say they're winning. Russia is still invading, bombing cities to dust, capturing other cities and installing puppets, and they have a numerical advantage despite suffering steep losses. Whether we realize it or not, a lot of the information being filtered out does have a pro-ukrainian bias, and we are completely in the dark as to how many casualties they've taken.

It's at a turning point where Russia is pulling back from its now-stretch-goals (like taking the capital) and digging in where they've been successful, so whatever they don't get pushed out of in the near-term is going to lock in. They're already trying to reframe the current status as the plan all along so it can be spun into a victory.

Haven't verified the source, but this is an interesting summary of why (eight tweet thread): To cut to the chase:

happy birthday seight!

Also the added complexity that they aren't trained to fly the planes we have, so like Poland is contorting itself to come up with a way to send them their compatible planes (and backfill from us) while trying to get us to choreograph their dance for them so they're not technically directly sending Ukraine their planes.

Russia has already threatened that any non-Ukrainians that have come to fight won't be treated as POWs

If he can still shut it all down, that's not the crumble yet.

No, he's pounding them into oblivion for resisting and for coordinating with the west against him, and he's doing it because he knows they're on the cusp of, but don't have actual NATO protection. It's a punishment to them and a warning to others. A warning that's obviously backfiring with regards to other Russia-adjacent countries.

paging @Poof

They're going scorched earth now that it's clear they aren't just walking in, they're more geared to artillery and bombings anyhow.

Per @Poof:

All he can do now is threaten nuclear war, it's the only leverage he has left. So he will do it over everything now.

Russia has a conscripted military, and from what I understand they aren't sufficiently trained to use all this (apparently outdated) equipment and fight a war. They believe they're being sent on a peacekeeping mission in the separatist regions and then they instead find out their convoy is headed to Kyiv. Edit: But I think the intention was to blitzkrieg into the capital with minimal resistance, and there was no expectation of a protracted war. My guess is they'll do every possible thing they can before admitting Ukraine, because WW3 and Russia having the largest nuclear arsenal on the planet.

I saw scrolling the reddit live feed (can't find it now) that the alleged leak is that the order from on high is in to take Kyiv by Monday no matter the cost, explicitly overruling the concern from the paradrop division because they're going to take all the losses. If true, the next 24 hours could be even more rough both for the city and the hundreds of untrained and unequipped 19 year olds that are going to get torn to shreds after being thrown out of airplanes.

There's an agreement to remove certain Russian banks from SWIFT. Not a finance wizard so someone smarter than me can explain the actual scope of the agreement because all I can do is take it at face value and it doesn't sound as comprehensive as was talked about before. Edit: I guess this kind of explains it.

Seeing a lot about the rough condition the Russian military is in, both in terms of equipment and personnel. World's largest nuclear stockpile aside, not a great look if you base all of your leverage around wanting anyone beyond 20 miles of your border to fear your capabilities.

He only started once China got cold feet. They had a call and then a couple hours later Putin suggested he would do talks, but in Belarus and with nearly every condition being a poison pill.