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[insert title here] 2025-26 Election Cycle Thread

Raptorpat

By Raptorpat
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Raptorpat Monster Mutant

Raptorpat

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News is happening so best to create a thread now rather than splice one down the road. Election content for the 2025-26 cycle goes here.

I've dropped in a bunch of things that literally happened in the past day to jumpstart the thread:

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Insipid Luminary

Insipid

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Older people, the most likely voters, are worried about their social security and medicare. These people do remember the old days of the Democrat party too. I will be cautiously optimistic pessimistic.

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Raptorpat Monster Mutant

Raptorpat

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The demographic shifts between the parties has led to (post-2016) the highest propensity voters being Democrats. I'd expect Dems to continue blowing Rs out of the water in specials and in the 2025 elections, but I think the realities of gerrymandering and partisan averages will blunt any potential waves in the actual 2026 elections (that being said, they only need to flip like three seats in the house so idk). This of course is all predicated on elections remaining largely the same as they are now.

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Seight Monster Mutant

Seight

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8 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

The demographic shifts between the parties has led to (post-2016) the highest propensity voters being Democrats. I'd expect Dems to continue blowing Rs out of the water in specials and in the 2025 elections, but I think the realities of gerrymandering and partisan averages will blunt any potential waves in the actual 2026 elections (that being said, they only need to flip like three seats in the house so idk). This of course is all predicated on elections remaining largely the same as they are now.

My dad likes to say "Republicans like every part of democracy except for the pesky 'letting people decide things for themselves' thing."

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Raptorpat Monster Mutant

Raptorpat

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Louisiana Voters Shoot Down Major Constitutional Amendments

Louisiana decisively rejected four proposed constitutional amendments intended to reform the state's policies on justice, juvenile crime, taxation, and judicial elections. Each measure received over 60-percent opposition from state voters.

Newsweek contacted the office of Governor Jeff Landry for comment via email outside of office hours.

Why It Matters

Among other things, Pelican State voters roundly rejected proposals to expand the list of crimes for which minors could be tried as adults without requiring another constitutional vote.

What To Know

Louisiana's Republican Governor, Jeff Landry, said he does not see the defeat as a failure.

"Although we are disappointed in tonight's results, we do not see this as a failure. We realize how hard positive change can be to implement in a state that is conditioned for failure," Landry said in a statement.

"We will continue working to give our citizens more opportunities to keep more of their hard-earned money and provide a better future for Louisianans. This is not the end for us, and we will continue to fight to make the generational changes for Louisiana to succeed."

This is what each amendment tried to change in the state's Constitution:

Amendment 1: Expanded Court Powers and Specialty Courts

Voters rejected a proposal to expand the Louisiana Supreme Court's authority over out-of-state attorneys and allow lawmakers to create specialized trial courts that cross district lines. The measure, prompted by controversy over mass hurricane lawsuits filed by an out-of-state law firm, faced a legal challenge earlier this month. It was defeated by more than 170,000 votes.

Amendment 2: Sweeping Fiscal Overhaul

Aiming to rewrite Article VII of the Louisiana Constitution, this amendment that ran to more than 100 pages proposed capping state spending growth, consolidating reserve funds, reallocating nearly $2 billion from education savings to pay down retirement debt, and phasing out business inventory taxes. A key component of Landry's tax reform agenda, Amendment 2 was rejected by over 150,000 votes.

Amendment 3: Adult Prosecution for Juveniles

This amendment sought to expand the list of crimes for which minors could be tried as adults without requiring another constitutional vote. Authored by State Senator Heather Cloud, it was strongly opposed by youth justice advocates who argued existing laws were already broad enough. Amendment 3 faced the most overwhelming rejection, losing by more than 180,000 votes.

Amendment 4: Judicial Election Timing Fix

Designed to align special judicial election timing with Louisiana's upcoming closed-party primary system, this amendment was defeated by over 120,000 votes. Supporters argued it would prevent logistical challenges in filling judicial vacancies, while opponents contended the change was minor and could have been handled legislatively. It was the only proposed amendment not subject to a legal challenge.

What People Are Saying

Landry said in a statement: "Amendment 2 was a chance to permanently lower the maximum state income tax rate, double the tax deductions for residents over the age of 65, create a government growth limit, provide a permanent pay raise for teachers and school staff, maintain the homestead exemption and protect religious organizations, keep more tax dollars in local communities, allow for the elimination of inventory tax, and protect against special interest tax breaks.

"The primary goal of Amendment 2 was to create a better opportunity for our citizens. To work towards inviting people into our state, rather than have them leave. Unfortunately, Soros and far left liberals poured millions into Louisiana with propaganda and outright lies about Amendment 2.

It is not clear whether Landry was referring to investor and philanthropist George Soros in person, or one of his foundations.

Louisiana Citizen Advocacy Group said in a post on X, formerly Twitter: "In rejecting Louisiana Constitutional Amendment 2, Louisiana citizens from every walk of life stood up and demanded good and faithful government, a government that protects us, and does not mislead us.

"65 percent of voters demanded government transparency. We do not exist to serve government, government exists to serve us, and it would do well to remember that. We will protect our state and every person who lives here. We will defend government of the people, by the people, and for the people. The founders who gave all deserve no less."

Pollster John Couvillon said in a post on X: "This was a 'primal scream' kind of vote, driven by robust Democratic EV [early voting] turnout that I'm not seeing being offset by a strong GOP Election Day vote."

What Happens Next

Landry is eligible to run for reelection in 2027.

https://www.newsweek.com/louisiana-voters-jeff-landry-constitutional-amendments-2052722

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katt_goddess Monster Mutant

katt_goddess

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8 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

FL seats stay GOP 

Something smells like diaper. I could have sworn that at least in the Weil / Fine run-up, Weil was +10 at one point. 

I knew there was no hope for a district that would willingly vote for Matt 'if there's grass on the field' Gaetz. 

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1pooh4u Monster Mutant

1pooh4u

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24 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

Their standard 30-point margins were cut in half:

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That’s cool but the outcome stays the same however if the Dems get off their asses they can claim those seats, in is it 2 years or whenever the OG Reps terms end? (Idk how much time each had left)

Raptorpat Monster Mutant

Raptorpat

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8 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

That’s cool but the outcome stays the same however if the Dems get off their asses they can claim those seats, in is it 2 years or whenever the OG Reps terms end? (Idk how much time each had left)

This is the House, so the seats are up every two years. The takeaway though is that the Republicans are horrendously underperforming in specials by like over 15 points, meaning anything they won be less than 15 points is at risk prior to the midterms. I would assume, all things equal, that they won't perform as poorly in the actual midterms but it's still a terrible data point for that party for the next year and 7 months until then.

7 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

What’s going on in WI w their SC seat? 

It's gonna yo-yo back and forth as random counties' results are added in. Saw that Milwaukee is telling people to stay in line while they can print more ballots, so that won't even be counted until the end.

Best to just check in in a couple hours, unless you just drip feed off the tension.

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1pooh4u Monster Mutant

1pooh4u

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18 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

This is the House, so the seats are up every two years. The takeaway though is that the Republicans are horrendously underperforming in specials by like over 15 points, meaning anything they won be less than 15 points is at risk prior to the midterms. I would assume, all things equal, that they won't perform as poorly in the actual midterms but it's still a terrible data point for that party for the next year and 7 months until then.

It's gonna yo-yo back and forth as random counties' results are added in. Saw that Milwaukee is telling people to stay in line while they can print more ballots, so that won't even be counted until the end.

Best to just check in in a couple hours, unless you just drip feed off the tension.

I, unlike the chaos goblins, do not drip feed off tension. I’m all about the chill and zero percent for the tension. Too old anymore for that shit 😆🫠😆

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1pooh4u Monster Mutant

1pooh4u

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4 minutes ago, Jman said:


This despite Elon spending $25 million on it.

I wonder How they will try to contest this and somehow give it to Schimel anyway? 

Edited by 1pooh4u
Dark_Cloud_Overhead Icon

Dark_Cloud_Overhead

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18 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

I wonder How they will try to contest this and somehow give it to Schimel anyway? 

Crawford's spoke just now and mentioned Schimel called her and conceded, so don't think they'll be able to contest this one. It doesn't look like it's gonna be close enough for them to have any kind of case to challenge it legally. Don't think they have any more real cards to play then. Maybe if they still had a supermajority in the state legislature they could try something crazy, but they lost that in the last election.

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1pooh4u Monster Mutant

1pooh4u

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11 minutes ago, Dark_Cloud_Overhead said:

Crawford's spoke just now and mentioned Schimel called her and conceded, so don't think they'll be able to contest this one. It doesn't look like it's gonna be close enough for them to have any kind of case to challenge it legally. Don't think they have any more real cards to play then. Maybe if they still had a supermajority in the state legislature they could try something crazy, but they lost that in the last election.

Damn shame though that my first thought was “how do they inject crazy into this?”  because that’s all that’s been happening these last, what feels like, a hundred years 🫠

 “when are the bat shit tweets and bleets from X and Truth Social gonna start?” Was my second thought 🫠😆🫠

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1pooh4u Monster Mutant

1pooh4u

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1 hour ago, Raptorpat said:

They're still contesting the NC court seat that the Dem incumbent won in November

They just hardly ever lose graciously anymore. I think it’s because shit is tilted in their favor so much they can’t understand when they lose. 

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