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Predict Toonami in September/October 2023


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Probably better to ask after we get 9/16. There are just too many unknowns. I’ll make an assumption they will stall one slot so subbed Uzumaki can tag in on 9/30. That would have it temporarily overlap Grunge, but I think they will let it slide to squish it into the appropriate month. Since it’s subbed, it’s a lot harder to headline with anyone, as by their own admission multiple times, subs are the number one ratings killer. 

The rest is anyone’s guess. The only thing that could even be considered a hint is that Eizouken tweet that tagged Toonami, and that’s a huge stretch. It seems the teased April show may have fallen through. I would not be surprised at all if there are zero acquisitions for the rest of the year. 

Even though it’s entirely pointless, they will probably do a Halloween marathon on 10/28. Id bet on an hour expansion for that so they can run both Uzumaki and HCC. 
 

2 hours ago, PokeNirvash said:

TG321 getting BTFO by One Piece actually continuing into Dressrosa.

Not that you would ever know, you blocked me, remember? Hopefully you don’t start charging me rent for the head space though. 

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This used to be easy when it was always easiest to bet on the Shonen Jump thing or the Kill La Kill or One Punch Man tier action show. Toonami seemingly can't access those shows anymore, so it's really hard to predict. Demarco asked what Viz and Sentai stuff people liked, but we haven't gotten any Viz or Sentai stuff this year. They really seem to be de-emphasizing big acquisitions in favor of originals, but the 2021-2022 originals were not good. Toonami is a lot harder to predict now than in their shonen obsessed period. 

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On 8/15/2023 at 9:59 AM, korosu said:

12:00 FLCL Grunge
12:30 Genndy Tartakovsky's Primal
1:00 One Piece
1:30 One Piece
2:00 Naruto Shippuden
2:30 My Hero Academia

Tssh. Hopefully, given that they're finally airing the first batch of FLCL sequels again, they'll finally start Primal from S1 this time.

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Welp, we can finally put the OP speculation to rest. Looks like we either will stay at 2.5 hours, or they are weening us into a 2 hour block normalcy. This is just like last year during DST where they used the confusion of unusual schedules to sneak in an hour cut. If I had to take a guess, double Naruto will stick till 9/30, at which point Uzumaki will slip in at 12:30. Once Grunge ends is probably when they rip the band aid off on 2 hours. So in our future a few months from now probably this.

12 - Dr Stone S3 part 2

12:30 - One Piece

1 - Naruto

1:30 - original rerun

 

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3 hours ago, Toonamiguy321 said:

=Looks like we either will stay at 2.5 hours, or they are weening us into a 2 hour block normalcy. This is just like last year during DST where they used the confusion of unusual schedules to sneak in an hour cut. If I had to take a guess, double Naruto will stick till 9/30, at which point Uzumaki will slip in at 12:30. Once Grunge ends is probably when they rip the band aid off on 2 hours. So in our future a few months from now probably this.

12 - Dr Stone S3 part 2

12:30 - One Piece

1 - Naruto

1:30 - original rerun

DeMarco has confirmed the MHA rerun will be staying. Gotta love the fact that you can never tell if something is intentional or an error nowadays. So how does that play into your theorizing? I do agree with you that double Shippuden is probably keeping a seat warm for Uzumaki.

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5 minutes ago, PokeNirvash said:

2:30 being left out of the official update is unfortunate, but it's good to know it's staying. But most importantly, DRESSROSA FUCKING CONFIRMED YOU FUCKIN PESSIMISM ADDICT

Buddy, One Piece leaving was OPTIMISM. It staying and dooming us to two years of a single arc is the bad end.

18 minutes ago, Blatch said:

DeMarco has confirmed the MHA rerun will be staying. Gotta love the fact that you can never tell if something is intentional or an error nowadays. So how does that play into your theorizing? I do agree with you that double Shippuden is probably keeping a seat warm for Uzumaki.

I still think Naruto is gonna stay double till 9/30 and then be replaced by Uzumaki. One Piece has no need to preserve its episodes. So here’s a revamped 9/30. 
 

12 - Grunge

12:30 - Uzumaki (subbed)

1 - One Piece

1:30 - One Piece

2 - Naruto

2:30 - MHA

No cut, yet it still feels like an awful lineup. Depending on dub speed and Crunchyroll cooperation, Dr Stone’s second cour could tag in when Uzumaki wraps up. That would be November when accounting for a Halloween delay. That just leaves Grunge as the one unknown. And as we have seen in the past, when an original or top billing shonen isn’t available, they really struggle at putting something in the lead. 
 

If nothing else, I’d say odds and Toonami only getting 2 acquired shows this year is sitting at about 90% right now. 

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8 minutes ago, Blatch said:

Then hopefully they keep airing it two at a time, unless you think that's a bad end too.

Dressrosa sucks ass. It’s easily the lowest point for the anime between shoddy Toei animation and their most shameless one chapter episodes full of padding to reach 22 minutes. 2 episodes a week means an hour of torture each week instead of 30 minutes. The only way Dressrosa is watchable is on your own skipping the OP + recaps, and maybe setting the speed to 1.5x just for good measure. Even if the entire arc stays double, which I doubt, that would still be about 1.5 years on the arc when accounting for marathons and other delays. 
 

If nothing else, I kinda wish since Naruto is now in its final sprint to the end, that they would swap it with OP. After this stretch of Itachi filler, there’s only like 10 filler episodes left. Throw the Naruto fans a bone here after 10 years of loyalty. 

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1 hour ago, Toonamiguy321 said:

Dressrosa sucks ass. It’s easily the lowest point for the anime between shoddy Toei animation and their most shameless one chapter episodes full of padding to reach 22 minutes. 2 episodes a week means an hour of torture each week instead of 30 minutes.

Toonamiguy review duly noted.

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22 minutes ago, PokeNirvash said:

if-you-dont-ss6wt6.jpg

Caught ya, just couldn’t bring yourself to actually ignore me, could ya? Imagine sitting here and actually defending Dressrosa just to have the opposite opinion of mine. 
 

 

15 minutes ago, [classic swim] said:

Toonamiguy review duly noted.

Sorry, I can’t take credit for it. You can skim any hardcore OP community for thoughts on Dressrosa and get something very similar. You will struggle to find OP fans who will give a positive review of anime Dressrosa. 

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41 minutes ago, Toonamiguy321 said:

Caught ya, just couldn’t bring yourself to actually ignore me, could ya? Imagine sitting here and actually defending Dressrosa just to have the opposite opinion of mine. 

Yeah, 'cause you were being such a smug jackoff about OP possibly leaving the block. I'm not gonna change my tune just 'cause you're shaming me about it like a sore loser. You suffering because OP is continuing and not leaving is a good thing. It's what you deserve.

Besides, Blatch quoted you on that first comment, ignoring you was basically impossible at that point.

Edited by PokeNirvash
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Double OP at 12:30 sure wasn’t on my bingo card but I like being able to watch it and get to bed at a decent-ish time for work on Sunday.

The one of the doubles are just holding a space for Uzumaki I figure but finishing before Halloween be darned if they’re so strapped for shows. They are better off waiting till Grunge ends.

I was wrong about Batman day. WBD keeps putting DC movies on ACME night instead of Toonami.

This schedule could last just two weeks and essentially make up for skipping OP and Shippuden two weeks for marathons but depending on circumstances they might keep one or both doubled up at least until Dr. Stone returns. That gives them the ability to start Stone as soon as it’s available to them. That said, they might need Stone to be the headliner in November if that’s even an option.

They clearly have no acquisitions they can throw on currently and I would not bet on that changing before November or even January.

At least they didn’t add reruns. That took some restraint.

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1 hour ago, PokeNirvash said:

Yeah, 'cause you were being such a smug jackoff about OP possibly leaving the block.

I was never smug or condescending about it. I only ever suggested that it MIGHT happen given the length of the arc, and more recently the delays after Punk Hazard ends. As much as I wanted it to, never once did I suggest it leaving was a sure thing. Maybe a GOOD thing, but not a sure thing. 
 

Dressrosa doesn’t make me suffer. It actually improves my situation as I have an excuse to go to sleep much earlier. Later down the road I may have to tough it out since I do want to see Shippuden end live, but that’s about a year away and plenty could change before then. Hopefully the suffering I experience in your head makes up for how dog water Dressrosa is. 

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3 hours ago, CountFrylock said:

Any idea what show is giving them so much trouble that this schedule update was thrown on Facebook so quickly they forgot about the rerun and said nothing about the schedule at all?

So far, this entire calendar year has been sequel seasons to shows they've already aired. Supposedly, Toonami's having better relations with Crunchyroll, but where's a non sequel? I mean even shitty generic isekai #45668235? I guess maybe it is true that Toonami would rather air nothing than spend money on view repellant, but with only about 100K viewers left, there aren't many viewers left to repell. Is Crunchyroll only offering  Toonami Gibiate/Ex Arm tier stuff for a reasonable price?

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9 hours ago, CountFrylock said:

Any idea what show is giving them so much trouble that this schedule update was thrown on Facebook so quickly they forgot about the rerun and said nothing about the schedule at all?

Demarco is on vacation, probably was just intern-kun messing up and posting an incomplete graphic. Not the first time we have seen it happen in recent years. 
 

6 hours ago, MCPissPants said:

So far, this entire calendar year has been sequel seasons to shows they've already aired. Supposedly, Toonami's having better relations with Crunchyroll, but where's a non sequel? I mean even shitty generic isekai #45668235? I guess maybe it is true that Toonami would rather air nothing than spend money on view repellant, but with only about 100K viewers left, there aren't many viewers left to repell. Is Crunchyroll only offering  Toonami Gibiate/Ex Arm tier stuff for a reasonable price?

They are happy to air viewer repellent so long as they can take credit for making it. See - FLCL Progressive, Alternative, Grunge, Fena and Black Lotus. 

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10 hours ago, Toonamiguy321 said:

Demarco is on vacation, probably was just intern-kun messing up and posting an incomplete graphic. Not the first time we have seen it happen in recent years. 
 

They are happy to air viewer repellent so long as they can take credit for making it. See - FLCL Progressive, Alternative, Grunge, Fena and Black Lotus. 

Weird how they decided to go into this direction when the rest of the Western anime companies have started to abandon originals. Crunchyroll phased out the Crunchyroll Originals branding because it was so toxic even if sequel seasons to shows that previously had that brand like In/Spectre are being made. Anime fans tend to hate Western co-productions. This next batch with Wantanabe and Park seems to have hope of actually being good and it feels like the Toonami Originals concept might not have been sullied had they come first. I guess these originals are being made in response to Crunchyroll cutting off their shonen supply? Anyway, the transition from shonen acquisitions to originals has been extremely detrimental to the Toonami brand.

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On 8/18/2023 at 9:23 PM, MCPissPants said:

So far, this entire calendar year has been sequel seasons to shows they've already aired. Supposedly, Toonami's having better relations with Crunchyroll, but where's a non sequel? I mean even shitty generic isekai #45668235? I guess maybe it is true that Toonami would rather air nothing than spend money on view repellant, but with only about 100K viewers left, there aren't many viewers left to repell. Is Crunchyroll only offering  Toonami Gibiate/Ex Arm tier stuff for a reasonable price?

If Crunchyroll is only offering the block one sequel series per year, then that's not a thawing of tensions at all. More like taking the knife out six inches.

The thing I always come back to in this regard is Sentai. Is their catalog actually open for business and DeMarco thinks he's too haughty for them, or does AMC have it locked up? I think the former is a lot more likely, but you never know. Either way, we've been talking about this for so long that the only way I can see this changing is if DeMarco is knocked off his perch and someone else takes the programming reins, and even then, that is by no means a guarantee. It's frustrating, and why I'm not as involved in speculative topics on here as much as I used to.

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1 hour ago, Blatch said:

Is their catalog actually open for business and DeMarco thinks he's too haughty for them, or does AMC have it locked up?

When asked, Demarco said the AMC acquisition did not hurt their ability to acquire shows from Sentai. Of course, he could have been lying (something he does as easy as breathing), but that doesn’t really benefit him in this scenario because it forces us to assume he is simply avoiding their catalog due to its lack of entry level shows or things that appeal to his personal tastes. 
 

Unfortunately, I think it’s far too late to get someone else in the driver seat. Someone will argue Gil is in charge now, but he is Demarco-lite so that doesn’t change anything anyway. And even if we did get someone else in control, Demarco has burned so many bridges already they probably still couldn’t do much for us. 

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1 hour ago, Top Gun said:

I like how you guys still make all of these absurd exaggerated assumptions about what Demarco does or has done or his relationships with other people as if you have this grandiose inside information. It's hilarious to me.

If Demarco didn’t burn the bridges, who did? When he doesn’t get his way we see him in real time throw a fit on Twitter and point fingers about how [anime distributor] is teh suck. It’s not a wild leap in logic to think that no one wants to work with the local manchild. 

If the bridges were not burned, we wouldn’t be looking at a block that’s an hour of One Piece and Naruto + a shit original. 

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Or maybe the prices for any of these series are more than [as] can afford for licensed shows anymore. Or maybe streaming services snap up the TV broadcast rights even knowing they're not going to use them in an attempt to stamp out competition. Or maybe most of the rights-holders are no longer concerned about having their series air on a late-night American linear TV block and don't even bother offering TV broadcast rights anymore. Or at least a half-dozen other far more sensible options than "zomg Demarco made some tweets and probably pissed off someone so that's why we don't get shows anymore he's the wooooorst."

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One major issue is the false hope that comes  every time the schedule has an opening. If Toonami can't afford any licensed shows aside from sequel seasons, pulling the band aid off and letting us know would help. Hopers keep prophesying Bleach, Jujutsu Kaisen, some other big show being just around the corner and the reason 2023 is so barren is because they are saving for one of those shows. Redditers who have accepted Demarco as the son of God and our true lord and savior still have believe the block is the best it's ever been.

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24 minutes ago, Jman said:

I think we’ll all be happier if we accept that things are way different than they were for Toonami in 2012, or Adult Swim Action in 2006.

I guess we can't even get Casshern Sins type shows now. It's kinda weird thinking back to the Bleach, Deadman Wonderland, Casshern Sins, reruns lineup as the "good old days." We have fallen far. I've kinda learned not to expect any acquisitions and if you want to watch action anime, get a Crunchyroll subscription.

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2 hours ago, Top Gun said:

Or maybe the prices for any of these series are more than [as] can afford for licensed shows anymore. Or maybe streaming services snap up the TV broadcast rights even knowing they're not going to use them in an attempt to stamp out competition. Or maybe most of the rights-holders are no longer concerned about having their series air on a late-night American linear TV block and don't even bother offering TV broadcast rights anymore. Or at least a half-dozen other far more sensible options than "zomg Demarco made some tweets and probably pissed off someone so that's why we don't get shows anymore he's the wooooorst."

If the block had allies in the industry, someone would hook us up with a show. Maybe not the best show, but something to keep the wheels turning. I don’t want to hear about cost or budget when distributors used to give the block shows for free just for the exposure. That’s when you know bridges are healthy. If your excuses are actually true, they should stop telling the fans that things are in the works, deals are being made, shows are brewing, etc. Then we at least stop having expectations. But all year long they have strung us along with the promise of a big pickup that has never come. 
 

2 hours ago, Jman said:

I think we’ll all be happier if we accept that things are way different than they were for Toonami in 2012, or Adult Swim Action in 2006.

2012 was the worst the block was financially ever. Yet they still secured shows. Again, not great shows, no mega, modern hits, but they kept it fresh. No excuse for 2023 to be this bad. 

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My guy, distributors chucked free shows at the block over 15 years ago. The current industry is absolutely nothing like what it was then. And I believe that they're constantly talking with people, but it's not as easy as just saying "Hey we want this/Okay sure." Shit happens.

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9 hours ago, Top Gun said:

My guy, distributors chucked free shows at the block over 15 years ago. The current industry is absolutely nothing like what it was then. And I believe that they're constantly talking with people, but it's not as easy as just saying "Hey we want this/Okay sure." Shit happens.

Ain’t talking about 15 years ago. Talking about 8-9 years ago, when this block was already completely obsolete. From what we hear from Demarco, sure they are always talking, but the same old conversations. Can we have JJK? No. Can we have Demon Slayer? No. Where are the talks about something they can actually afford? Clearly not happening since we don’t get anything. 
 

 

3 hours ago, CountFrylock said:

No company has any incentive to work with toonami anymore because streaming puts more eyes on a show than a late night tv block ever could…. 

If they maintained good relations in the industry, they wouldn’t need a reason. They would cut them deals just to do it. The distributor makes a few bucks, gets a little advertising and has a positive standing among Toonami fans. We still wouldn’t get the exclusives, but each distributor has PLENTY of B tier stuff that isn’t going to ever do much besides be catalog filler. 

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11 hours ago, Toonamiguy321 said:

..someone would hook us up with a show.

"Psst! Hey bro, I got the plug. Let me hook you up. JJK for 200k per episode, but ill hook you up for 150k per episode. Shit is fire, bro."

Yea that is not how it works anymore. Even for a lower end show that has already aired, do you think that [as]/Toonami could even afford the pay for much of anything? We are lucky that it still even exists and that we are getting the AoT finales and some upcoming originals that hopefully will not be shit. Everyone knows the block is not what it was even 5 years ago. The market and environment has changed greatly. It has nothing to do with Demarco, no matter how much we may not like him. 

There is no reason to even argue this anymore. I get it that you do not like it, most of us are saddened by it as well, but people have already given you the rational and more probable reasons for the situation we are in. 

If you do not like what Demarco and the block is doing, then simply stop paying attention to them. 

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1 hour ago, Toonamiguy321 said:

Ain’t talking about 15 years ago. Talking about 8-9 years ago, when this block was already completely obsolete. From what we hear from Demarco, sure they are always talking, but the same old conversations. Can we have JJK? No. Can we have Demon Slayer? No. Where are the talks about something they can actually afford? Clearly not happening since we don’t get anything. 
 

 

If they maintained good relations in the industry, they wouldn’t need a reason. They would cut them deals just to do it. The distributor makes a few bucks, gets a little advertising and has a positive standing among Toonami fans. We still wouldn’t get the exclusives, but each distributor has PLENTY of B tier stuff that isn’t going to ever do much besides be catalog filler. 

Dude times change if distributors really gave a shit about anime being on American television then We’d be seeing it on more than just a late night block on Saturday’s  

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2 hours ago, Toonamiguy321 said:

If they maintained good relations in the industry, they wouldn’t need a reason. They would cut them deals just to do it. The distributor makes a few bucks, gets a little advertising and has a positive standing among Toonami fans. We still wouldn’t get the exclusives, but each distributor has PLENTY of B tier stuff that isn’t going to ever do much besides be catalog filler. 

"A first-rate, “triple A,” or “A+” simulcast for North America will set the licensee back an MG or flat rate of hundreds of thousands of dollars per episode. Currently, these titles often go for as much as US$250,000 MG per episode, but can go as high as $400,000 in some cases. $250,000 per episode roughly covers the full Japanese production budget for many series, although higher budget anime sometimes cost as much as $500,000 an episode to produce. At those rates, other countries and physical media rights are usually included, but they are the lesser part of the fee; the simulcast is the major portion.

A more typical show, or what the industry calls a “B/B+,” will have an MG of between $70,000 and $150,000 if it's a new (first run) show. Finally, the “Cs” will have simulcast prices in the lower five-figures – per episode, of course.

Long gone are the days of $500 per episode simulcast licenses.

Non-exclusive catalog titles are much more affordable. A streaming VOD platform could get a lot of titles for a couple thousand dollars per episode, possibly even under $1,000 per episode if the series isn't in high demand. Generally speaking, these rights would still have to be obtained as sublicenses from the existing local licensees, but in some cases, if the exclusive rights haven't been renewed, they could be acquired straight from Japan. Sometimes non-exclusive licenses, particularly in non-English speaking territories, can even be acquired as rev-shares (with no MG or upfront payment), which significantly reduces any risk to the licensee.

When it comes to sublicensing, as I mentioned before, streaming platforms such as Funimation, Netflix, and Crunchyroll aren't very incentivized to sublicense anything they have to another streaming platform, even for fair market value. There has to be a good reason for them to consider these deals, such as high exposure to a unique market segment, a significant MG, or the possibility of a very high revenue share in the long run. Sublicensing of first-run shows is exceptionally rare; most sublicensing takes place long after the master licensee has made the bulk of their money off the show and are no longer concerned about competing services. These platforms also typically renew most of their licenses these days; I've been told that it's very rare for them to let a license lapse."

How Much Does It Cost to License Anime Series? - Anime News Network

This was from two years ago. The situation has only worsened. Things just do not actually work the way you think they do. As much as you might hate Demarco, he has very little to do with why we are not getting a lot of content on the block.. The streaming company's see no reason to sub out licenses to us. It is simple business. 

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