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Coronavirus Affects On Anime


The1gairon

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Japan has become one of the countries hit incredibly hard by the coronavirus/COVID-19, and it is already having a devastating effect on the industry.  For one, they announced just today that the Anime Japan 2020 convention will be canceled this year, as well as other conventions, concerts, and even anime movie releases. https://www.crunchyroll.com/anime-news/2020/02/26/animejapan-2020-officially-canceled-over-coronavirus-concerns

We also know that the Olympic organization has given Tokyo an ultimatum to determine if the virus is still deadly in three months time. If it is, it may mean cancellation of the entire 2020 Olympics, which would mean a lot worse things than just Kyoto Animation delaying the upcoming Free! movie in time for the Olympics because of last year's fire.

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I think the virus was as deadly as it was in China just because of the poor state run medical facilities, and poor air quality from all the industry smog. Other countries infected are having death counts at around 2% of those infected. In comparison seasonal flu's have about a 10% mortality rating. In china though the Corona Virus was something like 25%. So I'm thinking it could be environment quality and medical availability. As well Asian work environments aren't really the best; you're pretty much expected to work yourself to death when you're healthy, so working while you're sick isn't going to help things. 
 

As for the Olympics, it's been shown have been worse for the economy of the host country.  The last time it was considered a benefit was the 92 Barcelona games. This is because in the past rather than building a single use high capacity stadium, they would focus on rebuilding better roads and houses; that would be of benefit in the future. It's kinda from that where the days of it being great for tourism ect rumors came from. It's kinda like the bs excuse people have saying that artists doing free commissions is great because they're getting paid in exposure etc. Then the trend of super high capacity stadiums and extravagant entrance ceremonies became more the norm. Also Bids for becoming a host nation keeps rising to unreasonable levels. Los Angeles won the bid for the 2028 games all the way back in 2004 (yes they bid these things decades in advance not knowing what their economic state will be in the future). They bid almost 7 billion dollars at the time. I don't know what Japan bid for their but it is probably around that number. However the games comity feels that LA should have to pay even more money  because of inflation, that is bullshit and pretty much reminds me of how colleges will ask for more money after you finish paying them. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Fortnite Guy Keanu Reeves said:

I'm still expecting this whole thing with the coronavirus to blow over at some point in the next month or two. I see it going the way of things like the bird flu, swine flu (which I actually got back then, confirmed by a doctor), and any other flu or media covered outbreak.

The WHO and CDC said that "it's no longer an issue of if, but when, we'll see people in the United States die from the virus".  They also have a horrible reputation of over-exaggerating just how bad these things get in the past.

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2 hours ago, HardcoreHunter said:

I think the virus was as deadly as it was in China just because of the poor state run medical facilities, and poor air quality from all the industry smog. Other countries infected are having death counts at around 2% of those infected. In comparison seasonal flu's have about a 10% mortality rating. In china though the Corona Virus was something like 25%. So I'm thinking it could be environment quality and medical availability. As well Asian work environments aren't really the best; you're pretty much expected to work yourself to death when you're healthy, so working while you're sick isn't going to help things. 
 

As for the Olympics, it's been shown have been worse for the economy of the host country.  The last time it was considered a benefit was the 92 Barcelona games. This is because in the past rather than building a single use high capacity stadium, they would focus on rebuilding better roads and houses; that would be of benefit in the future. It's kinda from that where the days of it being great for tourism ect rumors came from. It's kinda like the bs excuse people have saying that artists doing free commissions is great because they're getting paid in exposure etc. Then the trend of super high capacity stadiums and extravagant entrance ceremonies became more the norm. Also Bids for becoming a host nation keeps rising to unreasonable levels. Los Angeles won the bid for the 2028 games all the way back in 2004 (yes they bid these things decades in advance not knowing what their economic state will be in the future). They bid almost 7 billion dollars at the time. I don't know what Japan bid for their but it is probably around that number. However the games comity feels that LA should have to pay even more money  because of inflation, that is bullshit and pretty much reminds me of how colleges will ask for more money after you finish paying them. 

 

Seasonal Flu has a 10 percent mortality rate? Did you mean .01?

Also, the Death rate in other provinces was lower.

"the death rate for COVID-19 varied by location and an individual’s age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%. "

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The virus is definitely more deadly in older people, plus those who have compromised immune systems.

Cancelling the Olympics over this would be objectively pretty cool, but that's as far as I'll go with this. It's egregious to celebrate the outbreak of a disease that could kill any number of people.

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1 hour ago, Blatch said:

The virus is definitely more deadly in older people, plus those who have compromised immune systems.

Cancelling the Olympics over this would be objectively pretty cool, but that's as far as I'll go with this. It's egregious to celebrate the outbreak of a disease that could kill any number of people.

I say continue the experiment.

Kill them all / unleash Akira.

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4 hours ago, elfie said:

The WHO and CDC said that "it's no longer an issue of if, but when, we'll see people in the United States die from the virus".  They also have a horrible reputation of over-exaggerating just how bad these things get in the past.

Nothing about what they've said is an over-exaggeration.

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On 2/27/2020 at 9:49 AM, Daos said:

Seasonal Flu has a 10 percent mortality rate? Did you mean .01?

Also, the Death rate in other provinces was lower.

"the death rate for COVID-19 varied by location and an individual’s age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%. "

The Coronavirus itself isn't as Deadly as it seems, the major reason it's been so deadly within Wuhan seems to be due to a lack of hospital space and lack of proper medical care and handling, 

 

outside of Wuhan it's VERY RARE to actually die from it

 

also, the CDC knows for a fact that COVID-19 is a far milder virus than the H1N1 (or "Swine Flu") Virus of 2008 was, as the Swine flu's death rate was around 10% where as it *seems* that COVID-19's is AT MOST 0.7%

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I been keeping up with local news. As usual, the White House is totally inept at not only stopping the spread of cases, but even reacting and publicly responding to this! Hiring the VP in charge?? Ignoring actual experts? Forcing doctors not to make any public facts about the virus except under the Administration's permission?? The president saying we just need "a miracle"??  Great. I feel totally safe. -_-

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1 hour ago, elfie said:

I been keeping up with local news. As usual, the White House is totally inept at not only stopping the spread of cases, but even reacting and publicly responding to this! Hiring the VP in charge?? Ignoring actual experts? Forcing doctors not to make any public facts about the virus except under the Administration's permission?? The president saying we just need "a miracle"??  Great. I feel totally safe. -_-

Pence should be an expert at epidemics. I mean he directly caused an HIV one in Indiana. 

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39 minutes ago, Top Gun said:

Pence should be an expert at epidemics. I mean he directly caused an HIV one in Indiana. 

Me: "No uuhhhhh...... being an expert in epidemics means you have to GET RID of them."

Pence: "...................................................

 

 

 

.......

 

 

 

.... OOOOooooooh."

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On 2/28/2020 at 4:05 PM, Top Gun said:

Pence should be an expert at epidemics. I mean he directly caused an HIV one in Indiana. 

It happened under his watch, that doesn't count as "directly" causing it, at least by the definition I'd use.

Seriously. Leave all this political shit in Dumpster Fires.

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8 hours ago, elfie said:

And despite the virus officially being called a pandemic today finally ...... Japan still hasn't shut off its borders from other countries!

If the virus is already endemic in the country, shutting the borders accomplishes little. It's too late at that point. 

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History-of-Pandemics-Deadliest-1-scaled.

I still don't think the virus is worth the hype, but at best it'll get people to start thinking more about sanitation and good hygiene habits. Really I'm thinking now is probably a good time for vacation, since travel and hotel prices are at all time lows. Only problem is that any large things worth going to have shut down; also that my lungs are still recovering from that biopsy and I can't do air travel or long motionless trips for another week to avoid clots. Though it's funny how all these big vacation places are practically empty, but stores are like prison riots. People trying to buy supplies is actually putting them at more risk of contracting an illness from someone than simply waiting it out or buying things ahead of time. I didn't know there was even store riots until I went to pick up corned beef for st patricks day. I usually buy bulk soap and toilet paper only a couple of times a year, and stocked up back in december. So having like 70 rolls of tp, and some gallons of soap and sanitizes, and freezers full of wild game and deer meat; I guess makes me the king of barter town.  Either way if there's anything still open and worth going to I'd say go for it. Nobody will be there and you have good chances of not running into anybody who is sick. 

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On 3/12/2020 at 7:15 AM, Top Gun said:

If the virus is already endemic in the country, shutting the borders accomplishes little. It's too late at that point. 

More that it allows better screening for infection when you monitor boarders. Also just because an illness gets in doesn't mean it will infect a large number of people. Like if you have some infected people in Florida. It doesn't mean that people in Maine or North Dakota are really at a lot of risk. However leaving the boarders open for more infected to get in will just increase the odds.
 

 

3 hours ago, CountFrylock said:

it has come to the point where this virus has taken over our lives and we have no choice but to focus on it everyday

i really hope this doesn't last the entire year

Really aside from the store and being in the hospital for a couple of days, I didn't even realize it was making people go this crazy. Really I'm still waiting for killer bees and fire ants to kill us like they said would happen in the 90s, any day now. I remember back when they'd have tv specials and movies about it. People were panic buying tape and things to keep insects out, because by the far off year of 2002 they'd make it all the way to canada and nobody would survive. Then 9/11 happened and everyone forgot about the bees and ants. The news forgot the real problems and began to focus on pointless things like wars and terrorists. I digress 90% of what was on TV in the hospital was virus coverage. The hospital was also getting overbooked by people who had normal colds and flu's but thought they were on deaths door and dying of this virus.  I even talked to my doctor about what he thought of it. He was like it's a serious illness for elderly and immune compromised people, but other than that people are overreacting. I'm an immune compromised person myself and he even said that since I survived H1N1 and Swine Flu that I would more than likely survive cronovirus, but it would suck to have. Pretty much just said having a good sense of your own bodies functions is best bet. Pretty much getting sick just stay home and nurse yourself to health, any fevers 101 and up go to the ER. 

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Pretty much every epidemiologist consulted has said that blanket travel bans accomplish very little at this point.  The virus is already widespread across the country.  The concern isn't spread via someone from Europe, it's spread via close social interactions, hence social distancing.  As you said, it's comparatively easy to screen people at airports; the real challenge is finding out who has it in a community (which is made exponentially harder when the asshole-in-chief royally fucks up the initial response). The only real chance a travel ban would have is if you went all President Madagascar and locked down every single border before the virus started to spread, but that would have been impossible. 

And no, you should ABSOLUTELY NOT automatically go to the ER if you have a fever.  That is a fantastic way to either expose yourself to illness or expose someone else.  Stay at home, call your primary doctor, and follow their advice.  If they recommend some sort of testing be done, they'll let you know how it should be accomplished.  There's a reason hospitals and cities are trying to set up drive-through testing stations: they don't want infected individuals putting others at unnecessary risk.  Obviously if you're in any sort of immediate respiratory distress, then go the ER or call 911.

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2 hours ago, Top Gun said:

And no, you should ABSOLUTELY NOT automatically go to the ER if you have a fever.  That is a fantastic way to either expose yourself to illness or expose someone else.  Stay at home, call your primary doctor, and follow their advice.  If they recommend some sort of testing be done, they'll let you know how it should be accomplished.  There's a reason hospitals and cities are trying to set up drive-through testing stations: they don't want infected individuals putting others at unnecessary risk.  Obviously if you're in any sort of immediate respiratory distress, then go the ER or call 911.

Yeah I think the ER advice was more for me personally than advice for everyone from my doctor because of my auto immune and lung issues. Since I'm immune compromised having a 101 fever would mean going to the ER. If you're not in that old or immune compromised group though self quarantine is best bet. The hospital I was at though was just a mad house for the staff. I felt bad for one of my roommates at the hospital. Really old guy got his eye socket busted while trying to buy supplies at the store. I don't think he was all with it either, or if he was just out of it from getting hit in the head. He kept asking his family where his stuff was. Just felt like that would have been avoided if the news wasn't trying to create a panic. In the waiting room before I had surgery there was just some guy trying to talk with everyone about the virus for some reason. He had a backpack and briefcase full of papers and he was just showing people how the virus spread, and air travel paths it took, and projected outbreak dates for different countries and coverage. If felt like I was being held captive by a crazy person until the doctors called me back.
 

As for boarder control and travel bans, even if they were done properly I doubt they would have been all that effective. We import far too many things, and had the ban been effectively timed and put in place over a month ago when things should have been done. It would have probably just sparked conflict as our country is already in heated debate over free moving boarders. 

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Tweeted at AMC customer service, Fathom Events and Atom Tickets asking them if they're gonna rescheduled that new Digimon movie, forgot to add in Toei America since they're promoting it too. Because my state just did a whole shutdown on anything public gathering related events and I bought my ticket well in advance. But I never did get an answer back but I did get a refund of sorts in the form of Atom cash. Still would've liked an explanation or press release or something about these special events.

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On 3/15/2020 at 4:46 AM, HardcoreHunter said:

More that it allows better screening for infection when you monitor boarders. Also just because an illness gets in doesn't mean it will infect a large number of people. Like if you have some infected people in Florida. It doesn't mean that people in Maine or North Dakota are really at a lot of risk. However leaving the boarders open for more infected to get in will just increase the odds.
 

 

Really aside from the store and being in the hospital for a couple of days, I didn't even realize it was making people go this crazy. Really I'm still waiting for killer bees and fire ants to kill us like they said would happen in the 90s, any day now. I remember back when they'd have tv specials and movies about it. People were panic buying tape and things to keep insects out, because by the far off year of 2002 they'd make it all the way to canada and nobody would survive. Then 9/11 happened and everyone forgot about the bees and ants. The news forgot the real problems and began to focus on pointless things like wars and terrorists. I digress 90% of what was on TV in the hospital was virus coverage. The hospital was also getting overbooked by people who had normal colds and flu's but thought they were on deaths door and dying of this virus.  I even talked to my doctor about what he thought of it. He was like it's a serious illness for elderly and immune compromised people, but other than that people are overreacting. I'm an immune compromised person myself and he even said that since I survived H1N1 and Swine Flu that I would more than likely survive cronovirus, but it would suck to have. Pretty much just said having a good sense of your own bodies functions is best bet. Pretty much getting sick just stay home and nurse yourself to health, any fevers 101 and up go to the ER. 

so you think Covid-19 is gonna blow over in a couple months or something?

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5 hours ago, CountFrylock said:

so you think Covid-19 is gonna blow over in a couple months or something?

The fatality rate is primarily among the elderly and immunocompromized.  Yeah, if the rate is slowed and treatments come in, rather than a rush of new cases all at once, it will be the same as any other disease.  The problem is the initial curve, which as everyone knows, can be very severe.

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6 hours ago, CountFrylock said:

so you think Covid-19 is gonna blow over in a couple months or something?

There will be a spike in infected by the end of the month, then it will begin to curve downward towards the end of April beginning of May. June we shouldn't be seeing many new cases, and by mid July early August there will more than likely be an anti-virus. The problem will then just be having enough supply for everyone. I predict that stores will be adjusted within the next 2 weeks for keeping supplies on shelves, given that people look at their hoard of goods and realize that they don't need more toilet paper. Also if you have the money take advantage of the stock market crash and invest. 

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6 hours ago, HardcoreHunter said:

There will be a spike in infected by the end of the month, then it will begin to curve downward towards the end of April beginning of May. June we shouldn't be seeing many new cases, and by mid July early August there will more than likely be an anti-virus. The problem will then just be having enough supply for everyone. I predict that stores will be adjusted within the next 2 weeks for keeping supplies on shelves, given that people look at their hoard of goods and realize that they don't need more toilet paper. Also if you have the money take advantage of the stock market crash and invest. 

if there is an Anti-virus it'll be hideously expensive in the US so most people won't get it

also August is a foolishly optimistic estimate

 

we may not have a working vaccine for YEARS

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12 minutes ago, mochi said:

if there is an Anti-virus it'll be hideously expensive in the US so most people won't get it

also August is a foolishly optimistic estimate

 

we may not have a working vaccine for YEARS

April is just going to suck, it's when we're going to see the largest outbreaks in america, after that we'll begin to see it climb down naturally. So if you're going to catch it it's probably going to be in April or early May. I do think that this will have a vaccine on the sooner side rather than later. Price of the vaccine will range between $30 on the low end to $80 on the high end. I presume that they are going to try and have the first batch out at the end of summer to see how it works pre-flu season in the fall. There will be mass shortages, but there will most likely be new batches out at the end of october to the middle of november that are upgraded. So if you can afford wait for the next batch I'd suggest to do so.  Worst case for a vaccine I would say is at most 15 months; I think though that it'll be mostly figured out in 5 months.  Stores though shouldn't be as bad in the coming weeks if hoarding can be curbed; I think my projection for that will still be correct as suppliers and orderforms are adjusted. 

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1 hour ago, HardcoreHunter said:

April is just going to suck, it's when we're going to see the largest outbreaks in america, after that we'll begin to see it climb down naturally. So if you're going to catch it it's probably going to be in April or early May. I do think that this will have a vaccine on the sooner side rather than later. Price of the vaccine will range between $30 on the low end to $80 on the high end. I presume that they are going to try and have the first batch out at the end of summer to see how it works pre-flu season in the fall. There will be mass shortages, but there will most likely be new batches out at the end of october to the middle of november that are upgraded. So if you can afford wait for the next batch I'd suggest to do so.  Worst case for a vaccine I would say is at most 15 months; I think though that it'll be mostly figured out in 5 months.  Stores though shouldn't be as bad in the coming weeks if hoarding can be curbed; I think my projection for that will still be correct as suppliers and orderforms are adjusted. 

...literally every single consulted expert is saying that a vaccine will take AT LEAST 12 to 18 months to be ready for mass distribution.  Where are you getting this incorrect info?

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I expect this to affect the simuldubs too since states are beginning to impose a required shelter-in-place even though most voice-acting gigs can be done at home. Daman Mills for example already stated his current simuldub roles are going to be recast with sound-alikes because he's not feeling well.

More and more anime events are either postponed or canceled as well of course.

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28 minutes ago, Top Gun said:

...literally every single consulted expert is saying that a vaccine will take AT LEAST 12 to 18 months to be ready for mass distribution.  Where are you getting this incorrect info?

Mostly basing the timeline on past vaccines released in the last 20 years. Some viruses were fixed much faster than expected like H1N1 only taking 3 months; when they were expecting it to take at least twice that. Other viruses have taken almost two years though like Ebola and SARS. However who's to say that it won't be like HIV and take 40 years to have something ready. Considering that I'd say my estimate of 5 months on the low end to 15 on the high end is far more likely. Like really whats incorrect about any estimate or presumption that I have said and have clearly said that they are presumptions. Same reason I know that stores are going to restock, I've been alive for almost 31 years now and have seen stuff like this before it's nothing new. 

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I bet you need a meteorologist to tell you if it's raining outside as well. Also looks like they started the first human test trails yesterday. Pretty much on time with my early presumption. It's almost like these things work in highly predictable patterns based on past scientific discoveries. My input though wouldn't have changed any of that. Some people though like to have vague ideas of when to expect normalcy to return. Based on past infections I figured those dates would be the most realistic. I'm not a political expert either but I can guarantee that the virus and vaccine is going to get brought up for the November presidential election. Some things you can kinda just figure out on your own via seeing it happen enough. 

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Are you being deliberately obtuse, or does it just come naturally to you?  The start of the very first small-scale clinical trials does not mean we're going to get this thing in just a couple of months.  These things take substantially more time, as the efficacy and possible side-effects of any vaccine have to be thoroughly understood before approval, and then the actual production has to start (which even for the seasonal flu vaccine, something we understand very well, starts months in advance of each flu season).  Even if your random guesses happened to be correct, it wouldn't make them any more based on actual comprehensive understanding.

No, I don't need a meteorologist to tell me it's raining now, but I sure as fuck need one to tell me the most likely path a hurricane will take, or the probability that a given frontal system will produce severe weather tomorrow.  But hey, novel vaccine development is just as simple as sticking your head out the window and looking up at the sky, right?

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On 3/2/2020 at 2:17 PM, PokeNirvash said:

It happened under his watch, that doesn't count as "directly" causing it, at least by the definition I'd use.

Seriously. Leave all this political shit in Dumpster Fires.

No, Pence refused to take action to prevent the HIV outbreak because he viewed it as retribution against homosexuals.

So yes, he caused it by intentionally doing nothing when there was still time.

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That's certainly more plausible than the "Pence infected people with HIV by releasing it into people's bloodstreams like a Captain Planet supervillain" theory I thought of when I read "directly caused", but it's still too indirect (and stereotypical of how far-leftists think of Pence) for me to consider it "direct".

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3 hours ago, Top Gun said:

Are you being deliberately obtuse, or does it just come naturally to you?  The start of the very first small-scale clinical trials does not mean we're going to get this thing in just a couple of months.  These things take substantially more time, as the efficacy and possible side-effects of any vaccine have to be thoroughly understood before approval, and then the actual production has to start (which even for the seasonal flu vaccine, something we understand very well, starts months in advance of each flu season).  Even if your random guesses happened to be correct, it wouldn't make them any more based on actual comprehensive understanding.

No, I don't need a meteorologist to tell me it's raining now, but I sure as fuck need one to tell me the most likely path a hurricane will take, or the probability that a given frontal system will produce severe weather tomorrow.  But hey, novel vaccine development is just as simple as sticking your head out the window and looking up at the sky, right?

Must come naturally, but also never said a couple of months, I said 5-15 months. They release vaccines all the time, it doesn't mean that they're always effective but they'll release them. I think H1N1 had like 6 revisions within a few months of it's first release. Either way it's not going to be the apocalypse that people are gloom and dooming about. I feel like far more elderly are going to die this year from slips and falls than from the virus; usually that number is around 600k people. If we treated slipping and falling like we're treating the cronavirus it would be pandemonium year round. If we treated car fatalities like we treated this virus it would be around the clock martial law no tp at the stores ever again. Either way I still find my presumptions to be highly probable. We'll find out in time anyway.    

Why would you need a meteorologist to tell you what way a Hurricane is heading? They hit the exact same spots every year in the exact same time frame. I can tell you every october and november there's going to be a hurricane when the wind picks up and theres some rain especially when it's a seasonal thing. I know it's apples to oranges when comparing to a virus though, but the point was there is a lot of past info built up to make an educated guess as to how things will unfold and the time frame. It's like with stock market stuff. Caesars casino stock right not is down to $3.50 a stock. It was $14.50 before the crash and over 5 years averaged around $12 a share. Now I would say that it's a good chance that overtime that stock will return around 3x investment based on being able to actually see how things like this have worked out in the past. You would say it's a down market you're not a stock exchange broker/expert it's not possible to know that, the experts are saying the market is down etc. 

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6 hours ago, HardcoreHunter said:

Why would you need a meteorologist to tell you what way a Hurricane is heading? They hit the exact same spots every year in the exact same time frame. I can tell you every october and november there's going to be a hurricane when the wind picks up and theres some rain especially when it's a seasonal thing.

You heard it here folks, hurricanes follow the same exact tracks every year.  Who needs sophisticated modeling being run on massive computer clusters to determine cones of uncertainty when you can just stick your head outside and see if it's windy?

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18 minutes ago, Top Gun said:

You heard it here folks, hurricanes follow the same exact tracks every year.  Who needs sophisticated modeling being run on massive computer clusters to determine cones of uncertainty when you can just stick your head outside and see if it's windy?

Every year Florida and the gulf and east shore states get slammed. Same few months Aug, Sept, Oct. If its one of those months and the trees are bent from wind and it's been raining for over a week I may have a hunch as to what the weather is going to do. Here's an image of 150 years worth of hurricanes, they're predictable. 
HURRICANE-TRACKER-580-22.jpg

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