Raptorpat

A little back-of-the-envelope Senate math: in 2024, the Dems have to defend seats in WV, OH, MT, AZ, and NV with no obvious pickup opportunities (class I is a Dem-heavy map, presidential year) in 2026, the Dems have to defend GA, but only have possible pickup opportunities in Maine and NC (class II is a GOP-heavy map, midterm) there won't be another widely competitive senate map where Dems can win new seats until this (class III) is up for reelection again in 2028 (presidential year)

what are you guys taaaaaaalking abouuuuuut

maybe if we make fun of him enough here, he'll buy us for $44b too

what? i haven't see that yet

well I just learned about a feature I knew nothing about

Yeah I saw and edited my post. NY post endorsed Zeldin and then writes an article citing an outlier Republican poll and an outlier Republican aggregator and only quotes Republicans. Not saying she can't lose, but if the partisan firms beat out all the independent firms and aggregators, the world is in for a rough two to four years of human cancer.

It is sleeper competitive, just like 1994. Hochul (like Mario Cuomo) is a favored Dem incumbent, but it's very realistic (not necessarily likely, but realistic) that she loses because polls have tightened and it's possible NYC voters don't turn out in the volume they need to due to apathy/disinterest. It's the only competitive race in the City and her consultants ran a Rose Garden/HRC campaign, all while she has comparatively minimal name recognition for an incumbent Governor because (a) she was sidelined by her predecessor for two terms and (b) she is from Buffalo and her Lt. Gov is from Schenectady. Zeldin also comes from the state house (he was a senator for a number of years before Congress and I believe he was an assemblyman before that) so he's not exactly a neophyte, and the state GOP went all in on him like a year ago. I'm not saying she's losing, but it's not a totally foregone conclusion. Combine that with the redistricting saga leaving NY the only state with a significant number of swing seats to be tilted by statewide coattails.

Where did you see he's ahead? The margins had narrowed but she was still above 50% with like an 8 point lead (though if NYC has super low turnout it's out the window). I think the general consensus is that she'll limp across the finish line and also that she should fire whomever is running her nonexistent campaign. Edit: I just saw it was Trafalgar. They are a hardcore partisan firm and if their numbers are accurate we're all in trouble. I don't really think Zeldin could touch abortion directly if he fluked into a win, outside of maybe cutting related agency spending. Roe was codified into statute in 2019 and the legislature is halfway to a constitutional amendment (which doesn't involve the governor). Raising the issue may help Dem turnout, but NY isn't in the same legal position as KS or MI or any of those other razor's edge states - which I think is why the analysts have said abortion has only had a real rallying effect in those states where it is directly existential.

I am ok I've been sick all of October and not on much

yo so what does feeding a poffin instead of berries actually do?

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/01/bolsonaro-brazil-election-address-00064489

i am over here

It makes sense in the absolute abstract, the semi-sovereign states were electing their union's president. But post-Civil War, it's not really the same fundamental relationship anymore, and that's why it's so back-asswards.

Time to reiterate that Trump only lost the 2020 election by like 45,000 votes spread across three states.

It ended in less than a 51-49 split, so I wouldn't describe it as a total failure. Has he alleged fraud or anything yet? Edit: actually according to the NYT, it was the "narrowest presidential election in the 34 years of Brazil’s modern democracy. Mr. da Silva won by 2.1 million votes, or 1.8 percentage points, in an election where more than 118 million Brazilians voted."

happy ahlloween

I was told that RSV is a thing that's going around, hitting all the babies and toddlers who've spent their entire lives in varying degrees of isolation/quarantine. But all I know is this is stupid and I'm not down to clown.

She picked something else up about a week ago, maybe from my mom's idk because she doesn't go to any formal childcare or babysitting. Snotty, congested mess with a reduced appetite. Could be a cold, maybe RSV idk, but she's past the worst of it. But she passed it to me, I started feeling the post nasal drip/congestion/sinus congealing Thursday night and it repurposed my post-covid cough so it's basically round two at this point. Less fatigue/achy, more just gross.

stilgar is everyone's arch enema

I'm talking like Wasserman analyzing polls, not early voting.

I've seen a fair bit of analysis that Dems are overperforming in red state districts (where abortion rights are at risk on the state level) and underperforming in blue state districts (where abortion rights are not at risk on the state level). So like Sharice Davids is overperforming in Kansas, but SPM in NY is underperforming.

remember that time we tried to trial run embedding ads here? yeah, let's never talk about that ever again