naraku360 Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 3 minutes ago, tsar4 said: Bringing new meaning to "must see tv". 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 Why I think Harris is going to win Georgia: she will probably lead when all the *early votes* are counted, and this map shows who is left to vote on *election day*. The metro Atlanta counties are going to vote like crazy on election day. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
André Toulon Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 1 hour ago, tsar4 said: Bringing new meaning to "must see tv". Bro, there are safer ways to do this. I understand your fears, because the right will no longer accept you but please, allow medical professionals to do this procedure. 1 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katt_goddess Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 1 hour ago, tsar4 said: Bringing new meaning to "must see tv". 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 4 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said: Alrighty, 2 days to go which means its time to put in final predictions for where things go. Lets start with the easier races, the Senate. Its currently a 51-49 Democratic Senate. Democrats are playing defense across the board with the majority of likely flip seats currently being held by Democrats. CNN has a list of the top 10 most likely seats to flip, and the top 8 are all Democrats. The two most likely to flip are WV and MT. Those seem like pretty sure bets at this point, which means the GOP likely has a floor of 51 Senators next year. Florida isnt in play, and as much as Democrats want to think Texas is in play there just isnt evidence of that. Its Lucy and the football every election down there, and theres no reason to think that wont be the case this year. No poll has Cruz with a lead below the MoE, which means it would take a truly historic polling failure for Cruz to lose his seat. Beyond those seats, OH, PA, WI, MI, NV, and AZ are all in play. In Arizona, Democrats are probably going to win that seat. Its an odd case where vote splitting sure looks to be the norm. Lake is an absolutely horrible candidate, and shes going to cost the GOP what should be an easy pickup. Theres 1 poll right now showing Lake winning, and Im going to go ahead and say thats an outlier. Gallego should win this one pretty easily. Nevada might be the best next chance at a GOP pickup, and for them not to it would require a lot of vote splitting. Early voting in NV is showing the GOP with a very clear advantage at the top of the ticket. Will it carry to the Senate? My guess is no, theres going to be enough vote splitting to save the Democrats here. Democrat hold. Ohio is another high chance GOP pickup, this one Im going to say there wont be enough vote splitting to save Brown. Trump is going to win Ohio easily, and its going to carry Moreno in a squeaker. 52-48 GOP. That's it though, there wont be any other flips. The only way that we see more flips is if either A. Harris is somehow going to have a historic blowout election (extremely unlikely) or B. Trump carries the entire Blue Wall and brings the GOP Senators with him (also unlikely). Nebraska 1 is suddenly making noise, but I think thats all it is. Noise. GOP going to hold that. So my prediction is a 52-48 GOP Senate. With the map the way it is, that should be considered a W for Democrats. If there is some, so far, unseen GOP wave that carries Senators as well then the Democrats are looking at a total wipe out and a sudden GOP majority of 56-44, or worse. So a 3 seat loss in this map is absolutely a win for Democrats. Now the House. This one hasnt gotten as much attention because it generally follows the top of the ticket. The easy thing to do is say that whoever wins the top of the ticket win the House. And thats exactly what Im going to do. Theres a chance for a surprise here where the GOP could win the House while losing the White House. The reason for that is actually in NY. After the last redistricting cycle the GOP made huge gains in NY, and thats what actually gave them the House in the last election. Sounds like the GOP are turning out in droves in these districts, so theres an outside chance that the GOP can hold the House even if they lose the WH. That said, Im sticking with the person who wins at the top wins the House. Whoever does win will likely have a very slim majority though. Now for the big one, the White House. All accounts say this should be an extremely close race. Both parties are putting out stuff saying that they are running better than ever before and their party is going to win, and win big. If you are in a liberal bubble you expect Harris to run away with it early, and the GOP bubble is saying that the only way for Harris to win is to cheat. That's extremely unlikely though. All accounts say this is going to be close, like down to a few thousand votes close. Out of all the likely scenarios, the most unlikely ones are where either party runs away with this thing in a huge EC victory. Polling is extremely close, and all the experts are saying this is going to be a squeaker right down to the end. Im also going to say that the pollsters have gotten much better at finding those "shy" voters so these numbers will be far more accurate than they have been in the past. If they arent, then it will likely favor Trump. The NYT pointed this out today saying they still cant figure out how to correctly poll Trump voters, so who knows. Anyways, lets look at some states. Trump is going to carry NC, GA, and AZ. Hes polling well there, and all accounts are that the GOP are performing very well in the early vote. These states arent going to provide a surprise. Theres been a lot of talk about Georgia, but thats all its going to wind up being in the end, Talk. Harris isnt bringing the enthusiasm needed to carry the state, and a lot of evidence that women, particularly black women, are voting at lower rates in 2024 than they did in 2020. Current tally - Trump 262 Harris 211. Nevada looks like its going to go to the GOP. There is crazy enthusiasm out there for GOP voters, and they are running so far ahead of where they have historically been that its looking good for the GOP. Some initial reporting is saying that this is actually a bit of a California effect. A ton of Republican voters have fled California, and a lot of them wound up going to Nevada. That might be enough to flip the state to the GOP, and thats what Im going to say is happening. Trump flips NV. 268-211 Trump. Theres a total outlier in Iowa out this week, but thats all it is. Huge outlier. This pollster did the same thing before where suddenly the Democrats had a huge lead leading up to the election only for Trump to win it easy. New Hampshire. Suddenly thats "in play", but I kinda doubt it. The only way it is in play is if there's some sort of Trump blowout coming, and I just dont see it. If they cant call NH early though then thats probably a sign that Trump is doing better than expected. An early call means status-quo and good news for Harris. Harris hold NH 268-215 Trump. Nebraska 2 - Currently listed as a Toss Up, but its leaning pretty hard Harris. Im going to say she wins NE 2. 268-215 Harris. Now it gets interesting, the Blue Wall. MN, WI, MI, and PA are all at play, and all are within the MOE according to polls. Trump is up in the RCP average in PA, and Harris leads in all the others. If that holds then Trump wins 287-251. Thats not what Im going to call though. All the evidence is pointing to a Trump win up here. The economic indicators, inflation, right track/wrong track, enthusiasm, favorability ratings, top issues to voters, and who is leading all of those top issues. All of it favors Trump. There also are the "silent Trump" voters that dont show in the polls and lead to Trump usually running 3-5 points ahead of the polls. This screams 2016 all over again so Trump should win these states. But he wont. There are a ton of AWFLs out there who as cosplaying the Handmaids Tail, and the Democratic propaganda has been masterful at making Trump seem like Hitler. The propaganda arm of the Democrats, the media, have echoed these idiotic claims, but they will do the job and carry an extremely weak candidate across the finish line. Harris is going to win all of these states, and win the WH 270-268. Theres a chance that she might win another state somewhere, but its not super likely. Her cap is probably in the 290 EC range, same as Trumps. I put money on Harris on Kalshi, and Im likely going to win some decent money off that bet. Tried to do the same on Robinhood when they opened that up, but I cant get it to work. Oh well, Ill stick with my Kalshi winnings and be happy with them. So my final predictions are: Senate: 52-48 GOP Advantage House: Democrat win with a slim majority White House: Harris over Trump 270-268 It would be nice if the Dems win the house and white house 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Pollster who had Trump up one point adjusts his already released poll to show Harris up two. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 43 minutes ago, Belize said: Pollster who had Trump up one point adjusts his already released poll to show Harris up two. I'm fairly convinced if there's a significant error in polling that it's overcounting Trump support 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 (edited) edit: i didn't realize the rabies testing was because it bit a cop lol Edited November 4 by Raptorpat 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark_Cloud_Overhead Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 41 minutes ago, Jman said: Daily Show version is the best though. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpgamer Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 3 hours ago, Raptorpat said: edit: i didn't realize the rabies testing was because it bit a cop lol When they said rabies test, I kinda expected it was because of this. That's not something they'd just do for random confiscation, I imagine. But absolutely required if infection was possible. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 She's traveling to every swing state today. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Insipid Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Originally, Harris was supposed to hold her rally in Pittsburgh at Point State Park. The Secret Service made her change her venue to an indoor one. I mean, this was just asking for an assassination attempt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Hahaha yes 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 2 hours ago, matrixman124 said: Hahaha yes "Your side doesn't know true empathy!" *votes for Trump* 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 (edited) Ladies and gentlemen, MAGA has been throwing it's support behind a squirrel owner who used the squirrel to promote his OnlyFans. His very homoerotic OnlyFans Edited November 4 by matrixman124 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Democratic advantage in the early vote across the states of PA, MI and WI. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
André Toulon Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 42 minutes ago, matrixman124 said: Ladies and gentlemen, MAGA has been throwing it's support behind a squirrel owner who used the squirrel to promote his OnlyFans. His very homoerotic OnlyFans 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 No, NJ is still going to be deep blue lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark_Cloud_Overhead Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 I am pretty much certain Trump is going to lose but God damn do I need it to be a landslide 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 I harshly judge polls that show Cornel West is getting more than 0%. "Obviously this is a garbage poll," I think whenever I see one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Insipid Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Quite symbolic of Kamala to hold her rally in Pittsburgh at an old blast furnace, a relic from the industrial age. Meanwhile, Trump is holding his rally at the climate controlled hockey arena. Bread and circuses. And a fun fact: Allegheny county had more Republican votes than any other county in Pennsylvania in 2020, almost 300k votes. No other county had over 200k Republican votes. Democrats in this county still beat Republicans by 20 percentage points. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 I assume the pollster threatened the family of a respondent if they didn't say they were voting for Cornel West. That is more believable than someone willingly voting for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 26 minutes ago, Belize said: I assume the pollster threatened the family of a respondent if they didn't say they were voting for Cornel West. That is more believable than someone willingly voting for him. That might explain the three polls with little credibility suddenly appearing about Iowa to "WELL ACTHSUALLY" things. I don't want to be overconfident, because 2016 screwed us. I do think that there are some fundamental differences this time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 2 hours ago, matrixman124 said: No, NJ is still going to be deep blue lol I haven't written out any predictions yet but I'd wager Trump overperforms in the greater NYC metro region relative to the rest of the country, like the GOP in 2022. Not enough to flip any states, but possibly enough to help swing seat Republicans in the area to hold their seats. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 1 minute ago, Raptorpat said: I haven't written out any predictions yet but I'd wager Trump overperforms in the greater NYC metro region relative to the rest of the country, like the GOP in 2022. Not enough to flip any states, but possibly enough to help swing seat Republicans in the area to hold their seats. Yeah the house and Senate are going to be much closer races than the presidency I'd wager 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 PA judge ruled Musk’s $1m voting giveaway can continue not sure how that isn’t literally buying votes but whatever https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/11/04/politics/elon-musk-1-million-giveaway nvm it’s not actually a giveaway as winners aren’t selected at random blah blah blah 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpgamer Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 1 minute ago, 1pooh4u said: PA judge ruled Musk’s $1m voting giveaway can continue not sure how that isn’t literally buying votes but whatever I have no context here, but, possibly because "giveaway" is, like, a whole-ass legal loophole to get around a lot of shit. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 3 minutes ago, rpgamer said: I have no context here, but, possibly because "giveaway" is, like, a whole-ass legal loophole to get around a lot of shit. It’s not a random lottery giveaway but rather people are allegedly selected and earn it doing bullshit I think that’s the gist anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 6 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said: PA judge ruled Musk’s $1m voting giveaway can continue not sure how that isn’t literally buying votes but whatever https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/11/04/politics/elon-musk-1-million-giveaway nvm it’s not actually a giveaway as winners aren’t selected at random blah blah blah 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 11 minutes ago, Raptorpat said: This is pretty smart. There are probably parents exhibiting a lot of anxiety. Kids pick up on that. Parents often watch Sesame Street with kids. Two birds stoned at once. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 3 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said: It’s not a random lottery giveaway but rather people are allegedly selected and earn it doing bullshit I think that’s the gist anyway Also the judge just declined to issue an injunction. He did not rule on the legality. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 In 2020, Cobb County's early vote was about R +2. In 2024, it's D +16. In 2020, Gwinnett County's early vote was about D +5. In 2024, it's D +22. I don't know how Trump wins Georgia. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Prediction: Harris will win Fayette County, Georgia, a long-time Republican county south of Atlanta that has been drifting Democratic for over a decade. Trump won it by 7 percentage points in 2020. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 I know Trump's going to lose because this is delusional MS paint shit 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwimOdin Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Dudes rolling on special K and mspaint 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 1 minute ago, matrixman124 said: I know Trump's going to lose because this is delusional MS paint shit No lie, the clear view that MAGA supports a fucking squirrel belonging to a gay porn star more than women and Puerto Ricans is only going to make them vote against him harder. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 13 minutes ago, tsar4 said: Okay this one I know is fake. I've been losing my touch sussing out real Trump posts and press releases 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sieg67 Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 19 minutes ago, tsar4 said: I can't even tell what's real anymore. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katt_goddess Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 34 minutes ago, SwimOdin said: Dudes rolling on special K and mspaint This is an insult to MS Paint. I do great things on MS Paint. Special K is a bougie cornflakes cereal so have at that though. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 For a side that claims to hate the elite, they sure do get into bed with hem pretty fuckin fast. It’s laughable that people think “oh Trump and Musk are just like me!” If anything these last few elections taught me is that no one should be that wealthy and no one that’s that wealthy should be pouring their money into politics the way Musk is. 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 19 minutes ago, matrixman124 said: Okay this one I know is fake. I've been losing my touch sussing out real Trump posts and press releases Yeah, I knew as much when I posted it, but it's still funny. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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