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Meanwhile, in Syria...

tsar4

By tsar4
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tsar4 Monster Mutant

tsar4

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12 hours ago, 1pooh4u said:

Seems like I’ve been seeing a lot of overthrowing people in government going around this week. Stuff was going down in S Korea and in France. 

Protests in Tbilisi, Georgia (Gov't abandoning joining EU) and Romania where there were "voting irregularities" (I think).

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1pooh4u Monster Mutant

1pooh4u

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5 minutes ago, tsar4 said:

Protests in Tbilisi, Georgia (Gov't abandoning joining EU) and Romania where there were "voting irregularities" (I think).

Was it Romania that is delaying elections due to Russian interference?

feels like the world is a rubber band stretched to near breaking 

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tsar4 Monster Mutant

tsar4

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3 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

Was it Romania that is delaying elections due to Russian interference?

feels like the world is a rubber band stretched to near breaking 

Yes.  And yes, we're heading for something nasty I fear.  Ukraine supplying weaponry to the Syrian Rebels, Iran blaming Ukraine for recent losses in Syria.  NK helping Russia in Ukraine.  All the protests.  You know who heading for the WH, threatening Canada & Mexico...

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1pooh4u Monster Mutant

1pooh4u

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36 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

They didn't delay, the court annulled the first round that had already happened.

Wow was there really that much interference that it invalidated an election?  If so that is gonna make people over here really think 

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Raptorpat Monster Mutant

Raptorpat

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Article is way longer but here is excerpt:

Quote

Syrian army command tells officers that Assad's rule has ended, officer says
By Suleiman Al-Khalidi, Timour Azhari and Jaida Taha
December 7, 202411:05 PM ESTUpdated 18 min ago

Summary

  • Syrian army says Assad rule has ended
  • Assad boards plane, leaves Damascus, say senior army officers
  • Assad's destination unknown, officers say
  • Rebels enter Damascus
  • Thousands celebrate "Freedom" in Damascus

AMMAN/BEIRUT/CAIRO, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Syria's army command has notified officers that President Bashar al-Assad's 24-year authoritarian rule has ended, a Syrian officer who was informed of the move told Reuters, following a rapid rebel offensive that took the world by surprise.

Syrian rebels said Damascus was "now free of Assad".
Earlier the leader who crushed all forms of dissent flew out of Damascus for an unknown destination on Sunday, two senior army officers told Reuters, as rebels said they had entered the capital with no sign of army deployments.

Thousands in cars and on foot congregated at a main square in Damascus waving and chanting "Freedom" from the long Assad family rule, witnesses said.
"We celebrate with the Syrian people the news of freeing our prisoners and releasing their chains and announcing the end of the era of injustice in Sednaya prison," said the rebels.
Sednaya is a large military prison on the outskirts Damascus where the Syrian government detained thousands.

A Syrian Air plane took off from Damascus airport around the time the capital was reported to have been taken by rebels, according to data from the Flightradar website.

The aircraft initially flew towards Syria's coastal region, a stronghold of Assad's Alawite sect, but then made an abrupt U-turn and flew in the opposite direction for a few minutes before disappearing off the map.
Reuters could not immediately ascertain who was on board.

The head of Syria's main opposition group abroad Hadi al-Bahra Syrian on Sunday also declared that Damascus is now "without Bashar al-Assad".
As Syrians expressed joy, Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said he is ready to support the continuity of governance and is prepared to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the Syrian people.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-rebels-celebrate-captured-homs-set-sights-damascus-2024-12-07/

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tsar4 Monster Mutant

tsar4

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9 hours ago, katt_goddess said:

Calling the real possibility that it's a faked crash so that he can disappear for as long as possible. 

Yeah, the BBC this morning is reporting that there were at least 3 potential flights he could have been on.  The aforementioned missing plane (dropped below radar, transponder turned off, maybe crashed), one that headed for UAE (but Assad purportedly was not seen on that one), and one that headed for Russia.

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tsar4 Monster Mutant

tsar4

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1 minute ago, 1pooh4u said:

Assad’s palace was being looted. I bet he had shit decorated with real gold. It’s like they have to do it

Seems like that type of person feels that anything gold plated makes the item acceptable.  My folks had a neighbor in FL. who had the most gauche taste, with many items (like large ceramic lions) spray painted in gold (worked so well the the double-wide mobile home).  Claimed she was an interior decorator and offered to "fix up" my folks place after my dad passed.  I told her I was moving my mom in with me, selling their place to the office and she said, "well, let the office know I'm available". :indifferentsmile:

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tsar4 Monster Mutant

tsar4

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24 minutes ago, SwimOdin said:

I’ll admit I know very little about Syria; will there be more of a net good or bad from this?

Hard to say.  One of the rebel factions leaders is saying the right things (giving people rights), but once anyone takes power in that region it seems to prove the old adage about "Absolute power corrupts absolutely".  We'll see.

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Master-Debater131 Hero

Master-Debater131

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This was a pretty rapid fall. The Civil War had basically been a stalemate for a long time now.

I wouldnt be shocked if the key cause of this was Ukraine and the October 7th Massacre. Both of those wound up pulling resources from Syria with Russian and Iranian resources needing to be redirected to their own wars, either direct or proxy.  As those resources dwindle, they just didnt have enough to maintain their own wars as well as prop up Assad.

Its remarkable watching the entire Iranian sphere of influence completely collapse in the span of a little over a year.


Now the real question is who takes power. This region has a tendency to replace one horrible despot with another.

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Winter_Rain Citizen

Winter_Rain

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10 hours ago, tsar4 said:

https://bsky.app/profile/youranoncentral.bsky.social/post/3lcrowsdnss2f

image.png.7afd2f801e4b74a721b5d19721ff12b0.png

I also saw some depressing reports about Syrian political prisoners that had been imprisoned under the rule of Hafez Assad, Bashar Assad's dad (1971-2000). When they were released they thought they were being liberated by Saddam Hussein's army and they didn't even know that Hafez had died and that Bashar Assad was the current ruler.  They were kept so isolated for all these years they had no idea of anything that had happened in the outside world.  

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Winter_Rain Citizen

Winter_Rain

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10 hours ago, SwimOdin said:

I’ll admit I know very little about Syria; will there be more of a net good or bad from this?

Very hard to tell at this early of a stage.  

On the one hand, Assad's downfall undoubtedly weakens his allies Russia and Iran.  He gave Russia a foothold in the Middle East as well as access to important military and naval bases.  And he gave the generally isolated Shia Iranians a valuable ally in the region as one of the only non-Sunni leaders.  

On the other hand, the Syrian rebels are mostly Islamists.  And I think we've seen enough of what Islamists are like in recent history to know that things could go south reaaalllllyyyy fast.  

Syria, like Iraq and the rest of the Levant, is a diverse country.  In addition to Sunni Arabs there are other significant ethnic and religious minorities like Kurds, Yazidis, Christians, and assorted smaller breakaway Muslim sects such as Druze and Alawites.  (Extreme Islamists tend to consider these guys "blasphemers" and as not real Muslims).  So imo this makes the risk both of ethnic cleansing and of the country devolving into factions fairly high.

Needless to say, Islamists don't exactly have a great track record with how they treat people who are not them.    

A big wild card and potential kingmaker in this situation is Erdogan.  He is the one backing the Syrian rebels and it would certainly benefit him to have a friendly allied Syria, especially since they share a border and since Erdogan is interested in expanding Turkey's power and sphere of influence.  Turkey already has NW Syria under its control.  Erdogan also has political motivation at home because a lot of Turks resent the prolonged presence of Syrian refugees there and want them to GTFO so if he's perceived as successfully helping to rebuild Syria he could get a ton of goodwill.  

A big question is how much control Erdogan actually has over the situation.  He is backing the rebels but of course that could always backfire on him (like how bin Laden backfired on us big time).  Also a Turkish-supported Syria would almost certainly have very negative consequences for the Kurds.  

Other possibilities are that pieces of Syria could break off (Syrian Kurdistan for instance, it is already under Kurdish military control anyway), that it could devolve to a Libya/Somalia state run by different factions and warlords, that some random general or whatever will declare himself the new strongman and Syria will be relatively stable but the strongman cycle will repeat for a other generation.  

Just way too early to tell how things might play out.  🤷🏼‍♀️

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Winter_Rain Citizen

Winter_Rain

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Regarding Assad's downfall, there's an interesting detail that makes me go 🤔Which is --- that Assad was actually just in Moscow a week ago.  Right when the rebel offensive started up again after remaining on the DL for like five years, in fact...

Now... it's of course possible that it's all a coincidence, but the to me the timing is veeeerry suspect and I think there was stuff going on behind the scenes that we aren't privy to yet.  

My guess is that the winds shifted both due to the war in Ukraine and due to Iran (the other major ally in the region) being weakened by its proxy conflict with Israel.  And so Putin cut Assad off and gave him the option to live in exile in Russia or to risk dying in disgrace a la Saddam and Qaddafi.  

It wouldn't be unprecedented. Putin has done it before.  With Yanukovych, former president of Ukraine, for example.   

I also strongly suspect that someone got wind of the something and that this is why the war just happened to start back up again while Assad just happened to be out of the country in Moscow.  (Most likely scenarios to me --- either the rebels received a tip off intelligence/orders from a foreign power that Assad no longer had support and it was the best moment to attack,  or Russia itself picked up indicators that something was about to happen and tipped off Assad that he better make his final preparations because they would no longer support him).  

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Winter_Rain Citizen

Winter_Rain

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Also, speaking of Russia...unsurprisingly, Rusnet is talking a lot about Syria today.  Military bloggers are reporting that Russian troops have already begun withdrawing from their bases there. Uncertain if there's any longer term plan but for now at least it seems clear that Russia is giving up on Syria for now.  

Which is probably bad for Ukraine, short term at least, because most likely that's where all those Russian soldiers and ships are heading next, although I'm not sure if it's enough to make a significant difference in the front lines.  

Some Russians are feeling similar about Syria to how Americans felt watching Afghanistan fall to the Taliban --- you know, the shock and disgust of watching guys you armed and supported for years just fold immediately like a house of cards, rendering all those years of soldiers and money and resources completely pointless.  😅

Would be interesting to see if this withdrawal (plus a likely withdrawal or stalemate with Ukraine in the future) leaves an impact on Russian mindset for a while like Iraq and Afghanistan have done with Americans.   

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Master-Debater131 Hero

Master-Debater131

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Israeli Strikes Hit Syria’s Navy, Military Arsenals

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-strikes-hit-syrias-navy-military-arsenals-bd00a840

"TEL AVIV—Israel has targeted hundreds of Syria’s naval and other military assets in the past two days as part of its campaign to destroy weapons left behind by the country’s military following the downfall of President Bashar al-Assad. 

Israeli missile ships destroyed naval vessels belonging to Assad’s forces that held dozens of sea-to-sea missiles with heavy payloads capable of striking up to 120 miles, Israel’s military said. The strikes happened in the port area of Latakia and El Beida bay, and were intended to prevent the weapons from falling into the hands of rebels who could eventually use them against Israel, it said.

The military said it had struck about 500 Syrian military targets in the past two days and destroyed most of the Assad regime’s stockpiles of missiles and other strategic weapons.

“I authorized the Air Force to bomb strategic military capabilities left behind by the Syrian army, so that they would not fall into the hands of the jihadists,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday.

Netanyahu said Israel wants to establish a relationship with Syria’s new rulers, but also issued a warning against taking actions that Israel would regard as a threat."

 

Smart move by Israel. We dont yet know whos going to be running the show in Syria, and at least one of the groups is already telling women that they are basically no longer considered human. So theres at least one actor with territory whos could be bad news. By flat out decimating the Syrian military it prevents it from either being used by a new hostile Syrian government, or being sold or "acquired" by other malevolent actors in the region.

The images of the strikes are pretty spectacular. Without any sort of way to fight back, the Israeli Air Force had free reign to do whatever it wanted, and they did just that. The Syrian Navy simply no longer exists (Russia apparently GTFO right before the strikes) and reports say there is not a single functional AA battery left for the Syrian army to use. There probably has been this kind of decimation from air strikes since the US took out Iraq.

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scoobdog Monster Mutant

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6 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Israeli Strikes Hit Syria’s Navy, Military Arsenals

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-strikes-hit-syrias-navy-military-arsenals-bd00a840

"TEL AVIV—Israel has targeted hundreds of Syria’s naval and other military assets in the past two days as part of its campaign to destroy weapons left behind by the country’s military following the downfall of President Bashar al-Assad. 

Israeli missile ships destroyed naval vessels belonging to Assad’s forces that held dozens of sea-to-sea missiles with heavy payloads capable of striking up to 120 miles, Israel’s military said. The strikes happened in the port area of Latakia and El Beida bay, and were intended to prevent the weapons from falling into the hands of rebels who could eventually use them against Israel, it said.

The military said it had struck about 500 Syrian military targets in the past two days and destroyed most of the Assad regime’s stockpiles of missiles and other strategic weapons.

“I authorized the Air Force to bomb strategic military capabilities left behind by the Syrian army, so that they would not fall into the hands of the jihadists,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday.

Netanyahu said Israel wants to establish a relationship with Syria’s new rulers, but also issued a warning against taking actions that Israel would regard as a threat."

 

Smart move by Israel. We dont yet know whos going to be running the show in Syria, and at least one of the groups is already telling women that they are basically no longer considered human. So theres at least one actor with territory whos could be bad news. By flat out decimating the Syrian military it prevents it from either being used by a new hostile Syrian government, or being sold or "acquired" by other malevolent actors in the region.

The images of the strikes are pretty spectacular. Without any sort of way to fight back, the Israeli Air Force had free reign to do whatever it wanted, and they did just that. The Syrian Navy simply no longer exists (Russia apparently GTFO right before the strikes) and reports say there is not a single functional AA battery left for the Syrian army to use. There probably has been this kind of decimation from air strikes since the US took out Iraq.

Oh look... Netanyahu is riding someone else's coattails again.

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