Belize Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 Democratic counties in Georgia have seen their turnout rise 2-3 points just today. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 2 hours ago, matrixman124 said: He definitely shit his pants in fear So the "hero" abandoned his wife & kids and ran home to protect the couch? 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 Just when you thought they couldn't get any weirder... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katt_goddess Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 20 hours ago, Jman said: Charlie-boy does realize women outnumber men, right? Check any demographic listing. You seem to think he knows that women are legally allowed to vote. 19 hours ago, matrixman124 said: People. Will. Die. Deregulations done under the Dumpster Dynasty have led to things like 'clean food' and 'sunshine' being pushed to the back in favor of increased profits for big oil. The 'War Against Drugs' that affects the study of psychedelics was pushed the hardest by so-called conservative republicans pretending to be highly religious which also affects anything they considered 'new age' as being satanic. Stem cells? That research was banned for the longest time because those same 'highly religious conservatives' immediately claimed that stem cells = babies and doing anything with stem cells was murder. No one should listen to any 'health' advice from a dude that sounds like he eats cigarettes. After storing them in his anus. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 Dude, where's my ballot? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 Some good news from the Stock Market? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwimOdin Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 3 hours ago, Belize said: Democratic counties in Georgia have seen their turnout rise 2-3 points just today. It’s wild to me to hear Cobb is now a democratic county…but it is. I am proud. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwimOdin Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 3 hours ago, tsar4 said: Just when you thought they couldn't get any weirder... They’re so desperate, who would possibly fall for this bullshit? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 Hey look, he has his own ballot box! 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 14 minutes ago, SwimOdin said: They’re so desperate, who would possibly fall for this bullshit? it's not about tricking, it's just good old fashioned anonymous intimidation 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 4 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said: Well WTF?! Im like 90% sure that getting a sticker is a required process of voting. I didn't get one and I did mail-in 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 Spoiler I know they have. Let me have my fun. Spoiler tl;dr shut up scoob 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
molarbear Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 6 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said: Well WTF?! Im like 90% sure that getting a sticker is a required process of voting. I'm not gonna lie The voting process is actually pretty smooth here, so I'm willing to sacrifice the sticker 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
molarbear Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 20 hours ago, cyberbully said: The honest to goodness truth is I don't know who is even right for this job. I'm on full electric so ONG isn't on my radar, but OG&E think they're slick with these tiny increases. I visit their site and check my energy archives from time to time. I should probably do it again soon but this summer, my bills were eclipsing $160....back in 2018, my summer bills were always around $100-$120. And I see they are pushing this "flat rate bill bullshit where they average out your energy usage and pay that every month despite what you use...but I can potentially be gone for a week at any time and I turn EVERYTHING off, it don't even leave outside lights or a lamp on to make it look like someone is home. Fuck electric bills. And as soon as I find an alternative to Sparklight, their ass is toast too. My bill has gone up twice this year and it's not like the service is stellar. Yeah... I know what party is currently running it though, and they seem to think everything is absolutely peachy. No matter how many times Drummond's had tried to investigate that shit, they seem to never give a clear answer. I had to look that shit up, lol. I have windstream, it's absolute hell on earth. Somehow they've managed to not roll out any fiber to this portion of the city, so I'm literally stuck with DSL or COX as my only option, and Cox has a data cap. On a good day my download is 30, and my upload gets near 1. Not gigs... megabytes. Then I see people on reddit over in McAlester bragging about having fiber that gets 14 gigs down. If you get a chance, check out Dennis Baker though. He's running for the House seat. He wants to use Grants from the Federal Transit thing to build a high speed rail between T-town and OKC. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 This old man is losing it! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 Starting to get down to the end of the polling cycle with pollsters putting out their final, and usually their attempt at most accurate, polls. The most accurate pollster from 2020 put this out Another group put out an individual poll for Pennsylvania That seems pretty outlierie, but for what its worth they are ranked #23 on 538 pollster ratings. At this point any poll that shows either candidate up more than 3 in one of the blue wall states sure seems like a big outlier. The current RCP average is this: Thats pretty damn tight across the board. With the exceptions of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina the states are all ridiculously tight. Like a thousand votes tight. If these numbers hold then Trump wins 287-251. If we look at the "safe" (and Im using that term very loosely as none of these states are safe) states in AZ, GA, NC that gets Trump to 262, 8 shy of winning. Nevada sure looks like its going Trump this time, so thats 268. He would need to win any one of MI, WI, or PA to win the whole thing. If Harris swept those states she would win with exactly 270 to 268 for Trump. An insanely close finish and one that would likely leave the country pretty damn divided and with no real governing mandate. Assuming that every single Blue Wall state goes for Harris, which is a huge assumption, then Trump would need to pick up a surprise somewhere else to win. NH is suddenly making noise for possibly being in play. He flips NH and suddenly he wins 272-266. Or, in the pure apocalyptic scenario, he sweeps Nebraska or picks up an additional vote in Main. Then we are sitting at 269-269 and about to watch complete and total chaos play out as we see the electoral process shift from the voters to the States and Congress. Theres also the pretty damn funny scenario where Harris carries MI and PA, but loses MN. I dont think thats super likely, but it sure would be funny if they lose MN after bringing Waltz on to help win rural men. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 Final jobs report before the election, and its a fucking disaster. Only 12,000 total jobs added last month, well below the 100,000 expected jobs. Most of the added jobs last month were government jobs. That's not a sign of a healthy economy. If there are any late-breaker voters who's only, or primary, issue is the economy then this is really bad news for Harris. People feel like the economy is bad, and this jobs report will just reinforce that feeling. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 I'm not convinced "AtlasIntel" is a real pollster. My assumption is they gather responses online through a survey that anyone can do at any time and then weight the collected data to reflect what they think the electorate is going to be. In other words, it's not a scientific poll because it doesn't start with a random sample. It's a Twitter poll weighted to the pollster's assumption about the electorate. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 Yes, I have done way too much research on polls and their methodologies the last few weeks. I'm convinced I am going insane. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 26 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said: Final jobs report before the election, and its a fucking disaster. Only 12,000 total jobs added last month, well below the 100,000 expected jobs. Most of the added jobs last month were government jobs. That's not a sign of a healthy economy. If there are any late-breaker voters who's only, or primary, issue is the economy then this is really bad news for Harris. People feel like the economy is bad, and this jobs report will just reinforce that feeling. There were 2 hurricanes you know 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 2 minutes ago, matrixman124 said: There were 2 hurricanes you know That and the Boeing strike. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 Speaking of the economy, inflation is extremely close to hitting its target. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/31/us-inflation-report 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 This is the core of the man that wants to be President... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1pooh4u Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 29 minutes ago, tsar4 said: This is the core of the man that wants to be President... This is so disgusting and then he has the nerve to say being called a fascist is what almost got him killed. Him directly telling people he fantasizes about guns in Cheney’s face is perfectly fine and normal though 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 This is an absolutely fascinating bit of data thats coming out of the NYT/Siena poll in those swing states. For people who are most likely going to vote, Harris is winning. People who might vote. its a tie. People who are "reluctant" voters heavily favor Trump. People who have never voted before absolutely favor Trump. Whats interesting about this is it really leans into some of the story lines we have been hearing about GOTV efforts. The Trump campaign has been working very hard to get those reluctant and first time voters to the polls. Its going to be a tight election, and it might come down to if these reluctant, and first time, voters can show up in any meaningful way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 3 hours ago, Belize said: I'm not convinced "AtlasIntel" is a real pollster. My assumption is they gather responses online through a survey that anyone can do at any time and then weight the collected data to reflect what they think the electorate is going to be. In other words, it's not a scientific poll because it doesn't start with a random sample. It's a Twitter poll weighted to the pollster's assumption about the electorate. Funny that, the Times just ran a story about how the polls are being completely screwed over by partisan polling and Trump confessed on Rogan to be paying for favorable polling, which is why we seem to get a constant stream of “WELL ACTHSHUALLY” polls every time Harris appears to be ahead. Or maybe Harris is just that terrified of repeating the Hillary mistakes. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 27 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said: Whats interesting about this is it really leans into some of the story lines we have been hearing about GOTV efforts. The Trump campaign has been working very hard to get those reluctant and first time voters to the polls. The campaign dismantled the GOP's door-to-door GOTV operations in favor of cheaper "micro-targeting" early on, long before Biden dropped out. So the entire GOP GOTV operation was built from scratch at the last minute and is being run by Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk, who have no idea what they're doing. 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 5 minutes ago, Raptorpat said: The campaign dismantled the GOP's door-to-door GOTV operations in favor of cheaper "micro-targeting" early on, long before Biden dropped out. So the entire GOP GOTV operation was built from scratch at the last minute and is being run by Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk, who have no idea what they're doing. Ehhhh, not really. There are many people with GOTV machines that Trump is now using. DeSantis built a massive GOTV campaign for the primaries and he handed it over to Trump. Kemp has a massive GOTV machine in Georgia and he is leveraging that for Trump. It may not be traditional GOTV efforts that Democrats use, but it is there. And based on early voting numbers, something is clearly working for the GOPs GOTV efforts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 Quote Donald Trump has largely outsourced his 2024 campaign’s get-out-the-vote operation to a Super PAC bankrolled and directed by Elon Musk, the world’s richest man — and one of its most awkward. In recent weeks, several Republican operatives and other figures in the national party have bluntly and directly informed Trump they fear Musk’s organization is falling down on the job of mobilizing voters to cast their ballots for the Republican nominee. According to two sources familiar with the situation and another person briefed on it, these close Trump allies have told him that they are worried that America PAC, an outside group that Musk created to boost turnout for Trump, is failing in critical battleground states that are likely to be won by razor-thin margins, with only weeks left to go before Election Day. Some partly blame, including when they’ve spoken to Trump, the group’s lead strategists, who are linked to the failed 2024 primary run of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. “We were upfront about our concerns,” says a GOP operative close to the former president and 2024 Republican nominee, who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations with Trump. Rolling Stone was shown a screenshot of written communications further corroborating that these sentiments were conveyed to Trump himself. This source adds that they relayed to Trump that they have been in touch “constantly” with conservative activists and other top Republicans based in key swing states, and few of them have had any positive comments lately about the Musk-supported America PAC’s impact in their respective states. Some say they are seeing a relatively small GOTV presence on the ground, despite the Super PAC’s massive spending to boost Trump — $75 million since Joe Biden withdrew from the Democratic ticket in July. Moreover, the sources say, several members of Trump’s inner circle have grumbled for weeks, including in discussions with Trump, that the Musk operation is being led by senior officials from Ron DeSantis’ embarrassing 2024 effort. In the 2024 GOP primary, the Florida governor and his allies waged a hugely expensive campaign to snatch the nomination from Trump — only to be roundly humiliated by the former president, again and again. Despite some public displays of unity between Trump and DeSantis — including during the 2024 Republican National Convention, where DeSantis spoke on the arena stage — there remains intense hatred and distrust between the two camps, multiple members and alums of each side say. Many in the upper ranks of Trumpland view Team DeSantis as woefully incompetent and out of touch, and they wonder, as one Trump adviser put it recently to Rolling Stone, “Why in the world would we trust them with anything?” Some of the private airing of grievances in Trumpworld revolve around the fact that the Super PAC still appears to be building its field operation. Multiple other Republican consultants and mega-donors have pointed out to Rolling Stone in recent days that America PAC still had open postings for canvassers on its website. “Why isn’t the army already in place?” a high-roller Trump donor asked, rhetorically. On the Democratic side, which has been tracking the work and progress of the Musk operation, those working to defeat Trump are similarly skeptical. For instance, a 2024 Kamala Harris campaign official tells Rolling Stone the vice president has a larger staff, as well as more than 350 field offices, built up across the swing states, and argues their side has significantly outdone and outpaced the ground-game infrastructure constructed by Team Trump. America PAC’s spokesperson did not provide comment on this story. Trump, who has previously publicly feuded with Musk, has recently trashed Musk behind his back as weird, “boring,” and irritating, as Rolling Stone has reported. But he desperately needs the billionaire’s support, now more than ever, given that Harris is massively outraising his 2024 campaign. Trump even campaigned alongside the Tesla CEO earlier this month. During these conversations with the several anxious allies, the sources say Trump has repeatedly dismissed their warnings about America PAC’s ground game and battleground-state outreach. “I can tell you from personal interactions with him that Donald Trump loves what Elon and his operation are doing in the battleground states, and nobody trying to convince him otherwise lately has had any effect,” says a Trump political adviser. “As you can see, Trump has been saying at rallies how much he loves Elon and the work he’s putting in … Elon is going all in where it truly matters, especially in Pennsylvania, where his efforts are most visible.” Moreover, according to multiple sources on or close to the Trump campaign, a number of aides leading Team Trump often view the former president’s allies’ harsh criticisms of the Musk apparatus as a way of trying to turn Trump against his campaign leaders, who largely outsourced the ground game to outside organizations, including the group run by Musk. And even if Trump did share any of his allies’ concerns, he’s effectively stuck with the Musk show: It is too late for his campaign to aggressively ramp up its own GOTV operation in bitterly contested swing states to make up for any possible Musk-related shortfall. In the final stretch of a relentlessly close, “trench warfare”-style race between Harris and Trump, Musk has given at least $75 million to America PAC. This amount comes on top of millions already funneled into the Super PAC by Musk allies in Silicon Valley, including Shaun Maguire, Joe Lonsdale, and Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss. But Musk was the group’s only reported donor between July and September. Musk, who established the Super PAC earlier this year, did not formally endorse Trump until after an attempt on the candidate’s life at a July rally in Pennsylvania. But The Wall Street Journal recently reported that the billionaire’s support of right-wing groups dates back further. At least $50 million in donations from Musk funded an ad campaign from Citizens for Sanity during the 2022 midterms, including spots that attacked Democrats in battleground states by demonizing immigrants and transgender people. The PAC, incorporated that same year, includes board members from the America First Legal Foundation, founded by Trump adviser Stephen Miller, who is known for pushing far-right anti-immigration policy. According to the Journal, the money was routed through a dark money group led by consultants tied to DeSantis. Musk also contributed at least $10 million through the conservative group Faithful & Strong Policies to support DeSantis’ failed 2024 presidential bid. America PAC is led by two veterans of that DeSantis run: Phil Cox, formerly of the Never Back Down Super PAC, and Generra Peck, who served for a short time as DeSantis’ 2024 campaign manager. Peck was reportedly among those who advocated for DeSantis to launch his challenge against Trump in a live-streamed audio event on the Musk-owned platform X (formerly Twitter) that was marred by technical glitches. Cox leads a sprawling consortium of consulting and lobbying firms; Peck is the president of one of the companies. As with the DeSantis campaign, which ended with the governor failing to win a single state primary, America PAC is heavily focused on canvassing. Never Back Down ran into problems by bringing in paid canvassers; America PAC is similarly paying its canvassers. Such presidential election fieldwork is typically primarily carried out by unpaid volunteers and organized by the actual campaign, not outside groups. Yet America PAC is now in large part responsible for Trump’s swing-state ground game. The Trump campaign has effectively delegated the bulk of its field operation to the Super PAC, which can accept unlimited donations, thanks in large part to a Federal Election Commission decision this spring that allowed campaigns and outside groups to coordinate their canvassing operations. (The decision was the latest blow to the idea that outside groups are expected to operate independently from candidates.) Another potential factor in America PAC’s perceived struggles has to do with the Trump campaign’s reliance on a smartphone app called Campaign Sidekick, which is often nonfunctional in rural areas with slower internet where the group is trying to reach low-propensity voters. Some of the concerns and complaints about the Musk-led operation have already trickled out publicly. GOP operatives and activists in toss-up states are saying they have seen little trace of America PAC’s canvassers at work. The group has switched canvassing vendors twice in the closing months of the campaign and, according to its website, the Super PAC is still looking to hire door-knockers just three weeks before Election Day. In an interview with the Daily Wire’s Ben Shapiro last week, Trump was either unwilling or unable to address concerns about his team’s GOTV strategy when Shapiro suggested he’d been hearing lackluster reviews about the Team Trump ground game in tipping-point states. Beyond any logistical shortcomings, America PAC exhibits Musk’s unmistakable sense of cringe meme humor in its ads. The group has also started featuring screenshots of Musk’s X posts and pictures of Musk in its ads on Facebook. Some of the ads are just plain sloppy: One Facebook ad calling on Pennsylvanians to “STOP THE INVASION” features a photo of refugees who were detained in Greece over a decade ago. Meanwhile, the Super PAC is apparently devoting considerable resources to collecting 1 million signatures on a purely symbolic petition supporting the First and Second Amendments, paying people $47 for every registered voter they refer who adds their name to the petition. It’s unclear how this would have any discernible effect on voter turnout. The ex-president could still, of course, win back the White House in November, with or without quality help from Musk. Various high-quality polls — both in internal surveys and public data — show a stubbornly close race between Harris and Trump in the battlegrounds that will decide the election. Several longtime Trump advisers and confidants tell Rolling Stone they are mildly anxious about Musk trying to take credit for a Trump 2024 victory, if he wins, even though they are confident Musk will not accept the blame if Trump loses. Apart from America PAC, Musk is certainly doing his part to try to put the twice-impeached former president and convicted felon back in the Oval Office. The billionaire has done what he can to turn X into a right-leaning, MAGA-fied social network, even amplifying misinformation produced by Trumpworld and coordinating with the Trump campaign to temporarily block links to an allegedly hacked, internal opposition research file on his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance. Musk appeared at a rally with Trump earlier this month in Butler, Pennsylvania, at the site where a gunman’s bullet grazed Trump’s ear in July, and is reportedly spending the final weeks of the campaign in the critical swing state. Despite this show of enthusiasm, and his hands-on direction of America PAC, Musk’s level of financial commitment to Trump — who has talked about appointing the Tesla CEO to a role in the federal government — has been a matter of ongoing confusion. Musk denied pledging $45 million a month to help Trump, as was reported in July; around the same time, Trump boasted that Musk was donating that much. Trump additionally claimed to an associate that Musk is pouring $500 million into America PAC. Now we know that Musk donated $75 million to the pro-Trump Super PAC between July and September — or $25 million per month on average. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-elon-musk-republicans-super-pac-election-2024-1235134877/ 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 6 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said: Ehhhh, not really. There are many people with GOTV machines that Trump is now using. DeSantis built a massive GOTV campaign for the primaries and he handed it over to Trump. Kemp has a massive GOTV machine in Georgia and he is leveraging that for Trump. It may not be traditional GOTV efforts that Democrats use, but it is there. And based on early voting numbers, something is clearly working for the GOPs GOTV efforts. Funny I've been hearing how Musks Super PAC and DeSantis's GOTV team are blowing it https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-elon-musk-republicans-super-pac-election-2024-1235134877/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 Quote Workers Say They Were Tricked and Threatened as Part of Elon Musk’s Get-Out-the-Vote Effort America PAC door knockers were flown to Michigan, driven in the back of a U-Haul, and told they’d have to pay hotel bills unless they met unrealistic quotas. One was surprised they were working to elect Donald Trump. “I was in shock and disbelief,” says a paid door knocker flown to Michigan to help turn out the vote for former president Donald Trump on behalf of Elon Musk’s America PAC. In Michigan, canvassers and paid door knockers for the former president, contracted by a firm associated with America PAC, have been subjected to poor working conditions: A number of them have been driven around in the back of a seatless U-Haul van, according to video obtained by WIRED, and threatened that their lodging at a local motel wouldn’t be paid for if they didn’t meet canvassing quotas. One door knocker alleges that they didn’t even know they were signing up for anything having to do with Musk or Trump. A representative for Musk and America PAC did not return a request for comment. “What’s gonna happen is, they’re gonna stop paying for these rooms,” a manager told the door knockers in an audio recording obtained by WIRED. “And then you’re gonna end up having to pay for it yourself. You can’t do that with no money.” The door knocker also alleges that they were told that they will have to pay for their own flight home. Blitz Canvassing, which had received more than $9 million from America PAC for presidential campaign canvassing as of October 29, did not immediately reply to a request for comment. America PAC canvassers in Michigan being driven around in the back of a U-Haul van. (Photo obtained by WIRED) One of the canvassers, who was flown in from outside the Midwest, tells WIRED they had no idea they would be knocking on doors in support of Trump or that the subcontractor they were working for was part of Elon Musk’s voter-turnout operation through America PAC. “I knew nothing of the job, or much of the job description, other than going door to door and asking the voters who are they voting for,” says a door knocker who was one of the people in the back of the van and who is requesting anonymity because they signed a nondisclosure agreement. “Then, after I signed over an NDA, is when I found out we are for Republicans and with Trump.” The door knocker adds that they had “overheard my supervisor and a few others mention Elon Musk” by name, marking the first time they had heard of the billionaire X owner’s involvement. The Trump campaign has largely outsourced its field operation in Michigan to Musk, a move that has come under heavy criticism as previously reported by WIRED. Blitz Canvassing has also reportedly had issues with fake door knocks being flagged by Campaign Sidekick, the glitchy app used by America PAC. In Nevada and Arizona, up to a quarter of the door interactions were flagged as potential fakes within the app, according to The Guardian. (“Sidekick was never expected to handle the auditing of America PAC’s door operation. The reason the PAC is confident in its numbers is because of the auditing procedures each canvassing firm puts in place and the auditing procedures of the PAC writ large,” a person familiar with the America PAC operation told The Guardian at the time.) Field organizing normally does not work this way. The gold standard for door knocking apps is MiniVAN, and transportation usually involves carpooling with other volunteers or campaign staff offering a ride—preferably, with seat belts. Initially, the paid door knockers for the Blitz subcontractor didn’t have transportation to get around Michigan, since no one in the group had a valid driver’s license. On Saturday, October 19, supervisors for the canvassers initially commandeered some Ubers for them to reach their list of addresses. But by Sunday, the door knockers were loaded into a rented U-Haul moving van with no rear seating or seatbelts, in a photo and videos viewed by WIRED. “We were all told our transportation would be handled and we’d be in rental cars. It turned out to be U-Haul vans, and I felt embarrassed and played,” the door knocker tells WIRED. The video from inside the van shows a bumpy ride, with a cage separating the mostly Black door knockers from their driver. The driver also told the group of door knockers that he was in pain and had difficulty driving: “I just had surgery, bro,” the U-Haul driver says in another recording obtained by WIRED. “Like half of my foot is cut off.” “I’m scared,” the door knocker who spoke to WIRED replies on the recording. “And all [the manager] is concerned about is how many motherfuckin’ doors the bitch got,” the driver responds. The canvassers were then dropped off roughly 40 minutes apart from each other, relying on the mobile app to log their interactions at front doors. In a contract agreement reviewed by WIRED, door knockers were given specific “performance guidelines” along with a mandate to “keep the GPS function of their personal device turned on during all working hours.” Each knock at the door must be done in 15 seconds or less, and the contractors “must remain on a property for at least 30 seconds.” The Campaign Sidekick app used by America PAC has severe limitations in its functionality, including the lack of a geo-tracking feature—hence the requirement that canvassers leave GPS services on for their personal devices at all times, according to a contract reviewed by WIRED—forcing them to use “offline walkbooks,” a function of the America PAC app, that don’t offer the support of GPS or real-time upload capabilities. While this particular group of door knockers was being managed through Blitz Canvassing, screenshots shared with WIRED show America PAC listed in the mobile app they were using to knock on doors. “Recommended attire includes a red polo shirt with khaki pants or jeans, and closed-toed shoes,” the “attire” section of the contract reads. “Clothing with graffiti, writing, or ripped jeans/shorts is not allowed.” https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-america-pac-blitz-canvassing-michigan-uhaul/ 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 OK, lets assume thats true. Then how do you explain the fact that the early voter numbers are clearly showing far more GOP early-votes than in previous elections? Dumb luck? Runaway enthusiasm? Its really hard to square away the idea that the GOP has no real GOTV effort with what is appearing to be record GOP early voting numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 Quote 'All hell has broken loose': Inside Elon Musk's high-stakes pro-Trump door-knocking effort More than a half-dozen operatives and canvassers connected to America PAC described an inordinate number of suspect entries and having to canvass during Hurricane Helene. Nov. 1, 2024, 5:00 AM EDT By Allan Smith Nine Republican operatives and canvassers connected to the Elon Musk-backed America PAC told NBC News that they’re worried the high-profile grassroots operation on behalf of Donald Trump’s presidential bid may hamper his chances in states decided by slim margins. America PAC has been tasked with much of the pro-Trump canvassing operation as his campaign focuses its efforts on a more limited effort targeting so-called low-propensity voters. In turn, the Musk-backed organization is going door to door in all of the major swing states to help turn out Trump supporters and have them fill out surveys about their voting intentions. But the people who spoke to NBC News, many of whom have years of experience in GOP field operations, said the operation may not be the well-oiled machine many in the party might hope it is, especially considering how much money is behind the effort. In particular, they raised concerns about canvassers’ submitting an inordinate amount of suspect data. That data, some of which NBC News has reviewed, includes entries submitted far from the home or while canvassers are logged into Wi-Fi networks — telltale signs that a door was not knocked on, sources said. In addition, a video explaining how to “spoof” one’s location while submitting data drew attention in Nevada and Arizona, raising further concerns. “I know it’s been flagged for America PAC that this has been transpiring,” an operative formerly on the effort said. As some of that data spilled into public view last month, an operative close to the effort said: “All hell has broken loose” inside the PAC. The super PAC denied that the suspicious entries were debilitating the effort. America PAC provided a statement signed by leaders at all of the major canvassing vendors working under its umbrella, as well as the head of its data platform, that disputed concerns over their data, pointing to in-house auditing programs each company employs. “Despite the lies being peddled by anonymous sources with agendas and a lack of knowledge of the facts, the America PAC field program is the most robust and effective outside canvassing effort ever, knocking on more doors with more people in more isolated terrain than has ever been done before,” Drew Ryun of Campaign Sidekick, Chris Turner of Patriot Grassroots, Jefferson Thomas of Synapse Group, Josh Penry of Blitz Canvassing and Jon Seaton of Echo Canyon Consulting said in a joint statement. “We are fully confident in the authenticity of our door counts thanks to the rigorous auditing infrastructure each canvassing firm deploys to supplement Campaign Sidekick’s strong capabilities, and we are on pace to exceed every single one of our door goals.” ‘There’s going to be hell to pay’ This election cycle is the first in which so much of a presidential nominee’s get-out-the-vote effort and field operation have been outsourced to a super PAC — a model that was attempted during Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ primary bid and is being replicated now for Trump. Many of those operatives who helmed DeSantis’ operation are now in charge at Musk’s super PAC, which is backed in part by roughly $119 million in investments from him. Door-to-door canvassing, a major component of what is known as the “ground game,” can make a difference in elections that are determined by 1 percentage point or less. With this election shaping up as one in which many and potentially all of the seven major swing states could be decided by that tight margin, the Musk-backed effort could be at the front of the line for plaudits should he win — or topping the list of reasons he lost. Those who spoke with NBC News ranged from on-the-ground canvassers to mid-level managers to senior operatives close to the PAC. They were granted anonymity to offer candid assessments and provide information without imperiling their professional prospects. “There are enough bodies on the ground that there could still be, I think, a modicum of success,” the operative close to the effort said. “Maybe not quite the resounding success that Elon Musk was hoping he was investing in, but I do think that you can do a lot over” the final sprint. In recent weeks, America PAC’s full canvassing portfolio has been divided among four firms: Blitz Canvassing, Patriot Grassroots, Echo Canyon Consulting and The Synapse Group, with each having certain states in its portfolio. Those groups, as is often the case in the paid canvassing universe, also subcontract out to other firms to take on part of their assignments. The firm with the largest portfolio is Blitz, which oversees operations in Nevada, Michigan, Arizona and North Carolina. Through late October, America PAC had spent upward of $54 million on Blitz’s services, according to Federal Election Commission filings — more than the PAC has on the three other vendors combined. Phil Cox, who is heading the PAC, is also connected to Blitz. America PAC ended its relationships this summer with two other prominent GOP-aligned canvassing firms that were knocking on doors as part of its effort. The operative close to the effort added that if several of the key swing states “come down to 10, 15, 20,000 voters, or even less, and it turns out” many of the voters Blitz was aiming to contact were not reached, “man, there’s going to be hell to pay.” Faulty data can mess up a candidate’s get-out-the-vote effort by giving a false impression of where it needs to target or who is or is not a supporter. Such cheating has been an issue in GOP survey and turnout operations for years, and canvassing insiders acknowledge that some level of fraud by canvassers takes place on virtually any effort in both parties. Yet operatives working on the America PAC effort, some of whom had experience working in races over the last few cycles, when canvassing operations were similarly plagued by suspicious entries, said the amount of flagged data surpassed even what they experienced then. Data reviewed by NBC News from Campaign Sidekick, the app America PAC’s door-knockers are using as they canvass, showed what sources described as an inordinate number of potentially suspicious data entries filed in recent weeks. In Arizona, nearly a quarter of data entries submitted in early- to mid-October were flagged in the app’s “unusual activity” log. That trigger automatically fires when door-knockers submit entries more than 100 feet away from the homes they are marking off, or if their locations are marked as a flat “zero” feet away from the homes, which occurs when the app is connected to Wi-Fi — which, in most instances, should not be the case for door-knockers walking around outside. In Nevada, more than 46,000 suspicious doors were entered into the system from Oct. 12 to Oct. 19. A person familiar with the effort said the PAC has a “random audit program” to guard against fraud, adding, “Everyone gets an eyeball every few days.” “The PAC uses other analytical tools to identify potential anomalies and then issues physical audits off of the forensic audit,” this person said, adding that canvassers are routinely fired for not doing the work or for fraudulently submitting data. What’s more, this person said, Campaign Sidekick “isn’t meant to be a fraud auditing app, and the PAC doesn’t use it as such.” “The reason the PAC is confident in its door metrics is because of the robust in-person and forensic auditing efforts each of its four canvassing firms deploy,” this person said. How to cheat: 'You want to make it look realistic' There’s also a video that has rocketed around the canvassing world in recent weeks featuring a person demonstrating how to use a location-spoofing app to cheat in America PAC’s app. As part of the demonstration, the person submitted faulty data for two people in Nevada. A source with access to America PAC’s back end confirmed to NBC News that those names were actually entered into the system — and were not initially flagged as suspicious, given that the location spoofing app placed the user close to the person’s home. NBC News, which received the video from two separate Republican operatives, has not confirmed who created it. The person familiar with the effort said Blitz was able to identify the person in question by comparing data offered in the video with the back end of Campaign Sidekick and immediately fired the person on Sept. 30. The source said the canvasser in question submitted the data on Aug. 29, before Blitz had taken over the Nevada portfolio. “As our auditing team came online, the individual in question, hired in this first hiring wave, was quickly identified and fired for spoofing,” this person said. “Our anti-spoofing and anti-fraud systems are industry-leading, and the termination of the individual in question is simply proof.” In a separate statement, Turner, Thomas, Penry and Seaton addressed their capabilities for rooting out door data that has been submitted through location spoofing. “The low propensity turnout programs are working, and early voting in the battleground states proves it,” they said, pointing to an increased share of Republicans in the early vote in key states. “Every door that is marked leaves unique fingerprints, and the fingerprints of a door marked with a spoofing app leave these fingerprints in neon colors. We have tech-enabled auditing and fraud prevention tools to identify and dismiss the bad apples, the client doesn’t pay a dime, and the door gets knocked by the next canvasser.” In the video, the person who offered the step-by-step guide to cheating said he baselessly fills out the door-to-door survey on voters’ behalf as being supportive of Trump and that they will vote early. GOP canvassing operatives said a further issue with door-knockers cheating is that the fake results they submit will most often be favorable to the client they are knocking for. “This is what I do. I put ‘Definitely Yes’ [for if they plan to vote]. ‘Donald Trump.’ ‘Early vote.’ … End survey,” the man doing the demonstration says in the video. “So it’s pretty much that simple. You just keep bouncing between houses. And you don’t want to go too fast. You want to make it look realistic. I’d say it’s 30 to 40 seconds [for] each house.” The video, which was first reported by The Guardian, raised fears that even the data reviewed by NBC News may have understated the level of potentially fraudulent door-knocking entries, sources said. In response to NBC News, another person familiar with the effort dismissed the concerns and said the America PAC canvassing effort “is a well-oiled machine, and all you have to do is look at early returns in battleground states to see the impact Elon is having.” “But this program is high-demand and hard work; it’s not for everyone,” this person said. “There is no patience for the hucksters and prima donnas who are lying to the press because they couldn’t hang with those of us working hard every day.” Elsewhere, field organizers have suggested they will not be able to hit the door-knocking targets they have set. In Wisconsin, Alysia McMillan, a former state House candidate in Arizona who knocked for the PAC in multiple states before the group fired her, shared audio she recorded that was first shared with Reuters from an Oct. 8 training session in Wisconsin. During that session, a manager warned they were not going to be able to reach their goals. (The first person familiar with the effort said the PAC will outperform its metrics laid out in July in every state.) “I haven’t seen it in writing, so I’ve heard some people say 450,000 doors we have to knock from the 17th of September to Election Day,” the manager said in the recording, adding, “We’re not going to hit 450,000, not with what we’ve got right now.” Knocking on doors in a storm As data issues started to pop up, the super PAC was also dealing with a very different storm — Hurricane Helene. Two canvassers who spoke with NBC News said they were made to knock in North Carolina as the storm rolled in on Sept. 27. Those canvassers said they were part of a team that was assigned to hit doors in Iredell County, north of Charlotte, as Helene, then a tropical storm, was barreling down on the state. One canvasser, who also shared a text chain from that day with their team, relayed that they learned they would be knocking after a Zoom meeting that morning in which leadership said canvassers could make calls instead of canvass — but that their direct manager opted to go door to door, instead. “If I go into the troubles that we went through just getting into the field, working, I’m talking about soggy literature, right?” this person said. “Ponchos on ponchos.” “It was very bad,” this person added. Weather and news reports from that day showed that multiple inches of rain fell, thousands of people lost power, trees fell, and roads were obstructed. The second canvasser said “a lot of people quit” right after that episode. “I’m knocking on people’s doors,” this person said. “They’re looking at me like I’m crazy.” The manager who the sources said assigned them to knock that day did not respond to requests for comment. Meanwhile, the first person familiar with the effort denied that any canvassers in the path of the storm were told to go door-knocking on Sept. 27, saying the PAC announced on the Zoom call that canvassers would be making phone calls rather than go door to door. “Virtually the entire team was on the phones in the morning, but as weather allowed, a number of canvassers notified us they wanted to canvass,” this person said. “Safety was always emphasized, with the team being instructed to stay inside if there was any question.” The second person familiar with the effort hit back against those claims, too, saying there was “not a chance” anyone was made to knock that day. Both canvassers and GOP operatives who spoke with NBC News said they were sharing the information not to hinder the pro-Trump effort but to save it, adding they were growing concerned it could hurt Trump’s election chances. “We’re there for Trump,” a canvasser said, adding, “We were doing what we had to do for the passion of it.” As NBC News detailed last year, GOP-aligned canvassing efforts have been afflicted with some of those issues for years. Donors have eagerly funded such efforts, which bring in millions to canvassing firms. But Republicans who spoke with NBC News, even those who expressed serious concerns, said that when they are done right, field operations are very important to campaigns and can make the difference in razor-thin elections. David Plouffe, a senior adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign, said on CNN last month that door-to-door canvassing “is going to be more important in this presidential race than any one I can remember in recent memory.” Some of the people who spoke to NBC News noted that Musk himself is relatively new to the political arena — as are many of the young canvassers working on the operation — which has frustrated some of the more experienced operatives. “I don’t even know where some of these people came from. Some of these people came straight out of the comments of the Nelk Boys YouTube channel,” an operative aligned with the PAC said, referring to the pro-Trump influencers. “These are, like, broccoli-cut Zoomers.” The operative formerly on the effort described a “shock wave” reverberating around the universe of operatives and canvassers currently or at one time close to the PAC as more information about the canvassing effort was made public over the last 10 days. “Elon Musk is brilliant at what Elon Musk does,” this person said. “You would never ask a political consultant to build rocket ships. I don’t think you should be asking someone that builds rocket ships to manage political operations when they don’t 100% understand what they’re looking for.” https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/elon-musks-high-stakes-trump-door-knocking-effort-america-pac-rcna176255 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said: OK, lets assume thats true. Then how do you explain the fact that the early voter numbers are clearly showing far more GOP early-votes than in previous elections? Dumb luck? Runaway enthusiasm? Its really hard to square away the idea that the GOP has no real GOTV effort with what is appearing to be record GOP early voting numbers. Polling in general seems to be skewed Trumps behavior lately indicates that he's worried and he shouldn't be worried if he's got the edge Edited November 1 by matrixman124 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Debater131 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 (edited) 2 minutes ago, matrixman124 said: Polling in general seems to be skewed This isnt polls, this is actual early voting numbers. In all sorts of places the GOP is running far ahead of where they ever have been at this same point in time during previous elections. In some places, such as Nevada, the GOP actually has an outright lead in early voting numbers over Democrats. Edited November 1 by Master-Debater131 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said: OK, lets assume thats true. Then how do you explain the fact that the early voter numbers are clearly showing far more GOP early-votes than in previous elections? Dumb luck? Runaway enthusiasm? Its really hard to square away the idea that the GOP has no real GOTV effort with what is appearing to be record GOP early voting numbers. Because in 2020/2022, Republicans from Trump-down were actively campaigning for their voters to vote in-person on election day itself, and realized that was a mistake when the Dem mail votes got banked instead of thrown out in court. So in 2024, Republicans from Trump-down are actively campaigning for their voters to vote by any means necessary including by mail and early in-person. The early vote isn't indicative of anything results-wise (beyond that votes are already being banked) until we have election day results in too. We just don't have a lifetime of data/patterns so say it means anything specific beyond spitballing. Early turnout is great, but no one can say whether the early vote is building on or cannibalizing the election day vote. All the pros (when I say "pros" I mean people whose goal is accuracy above all else) say to disregard any early vote tea leaves (unless it's Ralston reporting on NV). So we can reasonably infer Trump is probably ahead of the curve in NV (if those R votes are all for him), but nothing else means anything. Obviously we're all neurotic/anxious and want some kind of signs in the interim, but reading into early vote is just too speculative to be anything more than fun spitballing. Edited November 1 by Raptorpat 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwimOdin Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 28 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said: OK, lets assume thats true. Then how do you explain the fact that the early voter numbers are clearly showing far more GOP early-votes than in previous elections? Dumb luck? Runaway enthusiasm? Its really hard to square away the idea that the GOP has no real GOTV effort with what is appearing to be record GOP early voting numbers. I bet it has nothing to do with a former president, who lost the 2020 election, constantly lying about election integrity. Or perhaps it’s the politically violent rhetoric that is coming from the right wing? It certainly feels safer to vote early than it does on Election Day. Or perhaps it’s the change in tone from “don’t vote by mail, don’t vote early, vote on Election Day” that the former president, who lost the 2020 election, now realizing that they need every vote they can get to win the electoral college (but probably never the popular vote again)? Let’s keep speculating. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsar4 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 Houston Chronicle endorses Harris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 when I asked one very senior Democratic operative this week why she wouldn’t put her confidence on the record, she hardly let me finish the question. First, she said, the race is still basically a genuine tossup. Second, she said, for her party, “it’s going to take a generation to get over 2016” psychologically. And third, “there’s an element of superstition to it. You don’t want to be the person to say, ‘Yeah, we’ve got this in the bag.’” 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptorpat Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 I read multiple times they had a campaign call today where they said their internals show they're winning late deciders by double digits to which they credit the nazi rally. I wouldn't be surprised after it's over -If we wanted, we could read into Trump's recent outbursts about PA being stolen and all the social conservative outburstings about the "your husband doesn't have to know how you vote" ad campaign. It was off-record and can't verify though. But even if true, they will never formally announce that because the opposite of anxious is complacent. So anxiety it will be. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
André Toulon Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 Oh Ieant to say I got a sticker in OK. I gave it to my son...just like last time so he put it on his backpack. So he's going to troll with it just like he did last time. Which in his current school and the shit he's already done is just going to draw more negative attention to him, but at this point, fafo. Can't tell him shit 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belize Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 (edited) 2016 was easily the worst election I've ever experienced. It ruined my whole view of .... let's say, America. I almost gave up politics and activism completely because of it. So yes, I feel the whole line about "it'll take a generation to get over 2016". Edited November 1 by Belize 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matrixman124 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 4 minutes ago, Belize said: 2016 was easily the worst election I've ever experienced. It ruined my whole view of .... let's say, America. I almost gave up politics and activism completely because of it. So yes, I feel the whole line about "it'll take a generation to get over 2016". The fucked up thing about 2016 was that Trump's impact was a slow burn. Like a slow acting venom. Much of it didn't kick in until after he was out of office. By then the Supreme Court had been irreparably fucked and much of the short term economic gains curdled 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 1 hour ago, Raptorpat said: all the social conservative outburstings about the "your husband doesn't have to know how you vote" ad campaign. What a winning argument. Vote for us even if you're embarrassed to do it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jman Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 2 minutes ago, naraku360 said: What a winning argument. Vote for us even if you're embarrassed to do it. It’s surprisingly effective. There are a LOT of anecdotal stories about women not wanting to say how they vote outside of anonymous spaces because of Trumper families and the general stigma of voting liberal in good-old boy areas, but committing to voting against the guy who wants to control their bodies. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naraku360 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 19 minutes ago, Jman said: It’s surprisingly effective. There are a LOT of anecdotal stories about women not wanting to say how they vote outside of anonymous spaces because of Trumper families and the general stigma of voting liberal in good-old boy areas, but committing to voting against the guy who wants to control their bodies. Ah, I thought this was a "vote for Trump, we know it's shameful" thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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