Putin: "Stick to the timeline!"

[Jman]

These tanks are from the 50s, BTW.

[Icarus27k]

I'll be honest. One thing I did NOT expect would happen after the ASMB disappeared in 2016 was the U.S. would enter a second Cold War. 

I did not want to ever experience the nuclear anxiety that people in the 20th century did but I guess we're here now. 

The good news is I'm pretty confident nukes will NOT be used. My best guess is the Ukraine War will stalemate somewhere along the current battleline and we'll just have to wait for Putin to die of natural causes before Ukraine gets its land back. Not unlike Germany being split into east and west and then coming back together.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Icarus27k

[Icarus27k]

Also, I have been strongly pro-Ukraine throughout this event. I am flabbergasted by anyone who tries to take the Russian side but some people out there try it. 

[scoobdog]

9 minutes ago, Icarus27k said:

Also, I have been strongly pro-Ukraine throughout this event. I am flabbergasted by anyone who tries to take the Russian side but some people out there try it. 

Glad those some people are gone.

[Raptorpat]

https://twitter.com/nukestrat/status/1638991916250329088

[Icarus27k]

Sometimes, when reading about the war, I randomly think of that Russian guy who was an appointed leader of occupied Kherson until his death last autumn. It's obvious he was assassinated Mafia-style by his fellow Russians, but Russia says he died in a car accident. 

He illustrates a point. I can't imagine looking at the two sides in the war and deciding the good guys are the ones who kill each other Mafia-style for convenience sake. 

Like, THEY are the ones you want to throw in with? 

Edited March 25, 2023 by Icarus27k

[Raptorpat]

Are you suggesting that people the Kremlin is displeased with aren't just falling out of windows left and right?

[Seight]

7 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

Sometimes, when reading about the war, I randomly think of that Russian guy who was an appointed leader of occupied Kherson until his death last autumn. It's obvious he was assassinated Mafia-style by his fellow Russians, but Russia says he died in a car accident. 

He illustrates a point. I can't imagine looking at the two sides in the war and deciding the good guys are the ones who kill each other Mafia-style for convenience sake. 

Like, THEY are the ones you want to throw in with? 

 

7 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

Are you suggesting that people the Kremlin is displeased with aren't just falling out of windows left and right?

okay but hear me out

Spoiler

What if the car fell out of a window?

 

[katt_goddess]

18 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

Are you suggesting that people the Kremlin is displeased with aren't just falling out of windows left and right?

In America, a gold parachute is a payout when leaving a job.

In Russia, a gold parachute is when you pee yourself while soaring out a high raise window. 

[tsar4]

FSB leaked emails - "Total Cleansing of Ukraine"

 

[Icarus27k]

 

In other words, in a different timeline, the United States very likely would have withdrawn all of its nuclear weapons from Europe by now if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine in 2014. There was pressure for nuclear disarmament in the years before 2014, some of it motivated by isolationism. 

Ukraine would be whole, Russia would still be an acceptable, although difficult, member of the international community, the U.S. would have no nukes in Europe, and many people would still be alive if Putin hadn't decided on an imperialist march in 2014.

[scoobdog]

2 hours ago, Icarus27k said:

 

In other words, in a different timeline, the United States very likely would have withdrawn all of its nuclear weapons from Europe by now if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine in 2014. There was pressure for nuclear disarmament in the years before 2014, some of it motivated by isolationism. 

Ukraine would be whole, Russia would still be an acceptable, although difficult, member of the international community, the U.S. would have no nukes in Europe, and many people would still be alive if Putin hadn't decided on an imperialist march in 2014.

The United States would not have withdrawn its nuclear weapons from Europe even if he hadn’t invaded Crimea.  Our nukes are there for our NATO allies, who themselves do not want to deal with their own nuclear arsenal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[tsar4]

Some poor Russian pensioner with a walker and an oxygen tank coming soon to the front lines.

[Icarus27k]

1 hour ago, tsar4 said:

Some poor Russian pensioner with a walker and an oxygen tank coming soon to the front lines.

 

It's hard to overstate how much Russia has self-destructed out of hubris. Before 2022, the United States was exasperated by Russia, which had success in waging information warfare and interfering in the internal politics of other nations. Plus, the Russian military had a reputation as a growing threat. There were numerous news reports about how they were advancing militarily. 

Now, nations have sanctioned and isolated Russia to a degree I never imagined possible and its military has been revealed as a paper tiger and irreversibly damaged. 

[Master-Debater131]

Backfire is going to be the word of the year.

Turkey approves Finland’s NATO bid, clearing path for it to join alliance

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/turkey-approves-finlands-nato-bid-clearing-path-for-it-to-join-alliance/ar-AA19hDOY

 

Putin said he went to war with Ukraine to limit the amount of border Russia shares with NATO(along with a lot of other BS). Now that amount has doubled. Sweden is still being held up by Turkey and Hungary, but they'll get approved eventually. NATO is more unified than ever, growing in strength, and now has Moscow on a straight path from Finland if things ever popped off.

[tsar4]

Russian contracted firm Vulkan springs a leak on hacking plans

I always wonder about these "leaks".  Are they real info, or intentional "leaked" disinformation?

"Anonymous Sudan" possibly just Russia's "Killnet"

[Raptorpat]

Things might get a little weird.

https://twitter.com/UN/status/1642014674840346625

[Icarus27k]

Me to a pro-Russia internet guy explaining the 10-month-long battle for Bakhmut. These guys have this doctrine that Russia is strong, unbeatable even, it's all going to plan. I personally think the reason Russia missile strikes electric infrastructure is because they are not capable of hitting much of anything else, as an example. You got to puncture that "Russia is great" article of faith they have. 

Edited April 2, 2023 by Icarus27k

[Icarus27k]

This particular pro-Russia online guy is pretty competent at explaining specific battles and weapons, but he lets his Russophilia out sometimes and starts taking geopolitics. (Russia is unbeatable, the future is bright for Russia, it's Russia's century, blah blah blah). And then I'm like, "no, absolutely not". 

[Jman]

Speaking of pro Russian bloggers -

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/04/02/world/st-petersburg-vladen-tatarsky-explosion-intl/index.html
 

Russian bloggers are apparently now targets for resistance movements.

[Master-Debater131]

 

 

Love it. Finland is now an official member of NATO.

 

[Icarus27k]

The most colorful description of the Russian Federation I ever heard:

They are a big gas station owned by the Mafia. In other words, it's a cartel that pretends to be a nation. Despite Putin's words, Russian politicians are NOT statesmen who want global domination. They're just a bunch of criminals interested in their wealth and existence. 

That's means for 30 years, we treated them like a legit nation we could have relations with. And it was our hope Russia was someone we could be friends, or at least indifferent neighbors, with. 

[tsar4]

Defector: Putin scared/paranoid

[Master-Debater131]

Russian rouble fell to its lowest level over last year: 80 roubles to the dollar

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/6/7396681/

"The Russian rouble has fallen against the dollar for the first time since April last year, to 80 roubles against the USD during trading on the Moscow Currency Exchange."

 

Sanctions are biting hard.

[Master-Debater131]

This is fun. Its totally unconfirmed, but there's videos floating around out there of armed fighting breaking out inside of Russia. They are coming from regions that have been trying to break away from Russia for a long time. The locations arent completely confirmed but it sounds like its coming from the Caucasus. More and more videos are being posted online from these regions.

This comes after reports that Putin was growing worried of another uprising in Chechnya because of the sudden removal of Russian, and Russia friendly, forces in the area. They moved those troops into Ukraine and now the locals think they may have an opportunity to fight for independence again.

It would be just so great if the Russian empire collapsed because of Putins folly in Ukraine.

[tsar4]

9 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

This is fun. Its totally unconfirmed, but there's videos floating around out there of armed fighting breaking out inside of Russia. They are coming from regions that have been trying to break away from Russia for a long time. The locations arent completely confirmed but it sounds like its coming from the Caucasus. More and more videos are being posted online from these regions.

This comes after reports that Putin was growing worried of another uprising in Chechnya because of the sudden removal of Russian, and Russia friendly, forces in the area. They moved those troops into Ukraine and now the locals think they may have an opportunity to fight for independence again.

It would be just so great if the Russian empire collapsed because of Putins folly in Ukraine.

This may sound strange, coming from someone of Ukrainian descent, but I don't like the sound of it.  I think every one of the subjugated countries deserve autonomy, but I don't think of the collapse of Russia the country as a good thing.  Of late, power vacuums have not ended well for anyone.  Imagine Russia going through another 1918, with multiple factions trying to wrest control (along with outside interference from other countries - US tries to back one, China steps in and backs another, NATO, India, Iran...).   Yes, Putin must go; yes something better should take his place (even if they aren't US friendly), but a complete collapse - no.

[scoobdog]

14 minutes ago, tsar4 said:

This may sound strange, coming from someone of Ukrainian descent, but I don't like the sound of it.  I think every one of the subjugated countries deserve autonomy, but I don't think of the collapse of Russia the country as a good thing.  Of late, power vacuums have not ended well for anyone.  Imagine Russia going through another 1918, with multiple factions trying to wrest control (along with outside interference from other countries - US tries to back one, China steps in and backs another, NATO, India, Iran...).   Yes, Putin must go; yes something better should take his place (even if they aren't US friendly), but a complete collapse - no.

The problem is a complete collapse may be unavoidable.  Not all dictators are despots, and, while it’s debatable whether or not Putin is the sole monster in the cave, his reign is more defined by the way his tactics have gutted the ranks of Russia’s civil servants than.  Once he’s gone, there will be a power vacuum among a bunch of inept hardliners.

[Master-Debater131]

13 hours ago, scoobdog said:

The problem is a complete collapse may be unavoidable.  Not all dictators are despots, and, while it’s debatable whether or not Putin is the sole monster in the cave, his reign is more defined by the way his tactics have gutted the ranks of Russia’s civil servants than.  Once he’s gone, there will be a power vacuum among a bunch of inept hardliners.

To add onto this, and to also agree with the general point that Tsar made, the current makeup of the Russian empire is largely held together through military occupation and an oppressive totalitarian state. Once those start to break down the different regions are all going to want to declare independence and break away from Russia.

China would very likely step in in some way because they want the current Russia to stick around but become nothing more than a petro state totally dependent on them. China wants a weakened Russia that they can exploit. If Russia starts to break up they may look to step in somehow, even more so if Democratic movements start to pop up.

It wouldnt be clean by any means, but it would very likely result in a much weaker enemy on the world stage.

[Master-Debater131]

Ukraine gives Russia two options: Leave Crimea peacefully or be ready for battle

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-crimea-war-peace-volodymyr-zelenskyy/

"KYIV — Ukraine has not changed its plans for the return of territory occupied by Russia, including Crimea.

“Ukraine will choose the way to bring Crimea back, using political and military means,” Tamila Tasheva, the Ukrainian president’s envoy on Crimea, told POLITICO.

“To minimize Ukrainian military losses, minimize threats to civilians who live in occupied territories, as well as the destruction of civilian infrastructure, Ukraine plans to give Russia a choice on how to leave Crimea. If they don’t agree to leave voluntarily, Ukraine will continue to liberate its land by military means,” Tasheva added."

 

 

Theres been a lot of chatter about the long awaited UA counter offensive. Crimea has been a prime target for a while, and the UA could totally isolate Crimea with a good counter offensive in the south. They also will start to receive Bradlys and Abrams here soon which will absolutely tip the balance of power in the war. This could all be a giant feint as well where they talk of retaking Crimea only to go on a massive counter offensive to the north. Either way, it sure looks like we are getting close to the UA going back on the offensive.

[Master-Debater131]

Armenia will participate in NATO maneuvers, abandoning CSTO exercises

https://www.easternherald.com/2023/04/06/armenia-will-participate-in-nato-maneuvers-abandoning-csto-exercises/

"On April 22, the grandiose NATO military exercises “Defender 2023” will begin. They will take place under the leadership of the United States on the territory of 10 European countries and will last 2 months. They will bring together 9,000 service members from the United States and 17,000 service members from 26 European and post-Soviet countries.

 

Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told a press briefing that Washington wanted to show Europeans its ability to protect them from all kinds of aggression. Therefore, the maneuvers mentioned are focused on the strategic deployment (transfer) of US-based forces and assets (7,000 pieces of equipment), as well as the use of existing US military stocks in Europe (13 000 pieces of equipment) in cooperation with other states. She clarified that among the participants there were countries that are not members of NATO, and three of them are the republics of the former USSR: Moldova, Georgia and Armenia.

 

Note that Yerevan has been actively showing its displeasure in Moscow lately. Prior to that, CSTO member Armenia defiantly refused to conduct joint “Indestructible Brotherhood – 2023” exercises on its territory, considering them a threat to national security.

The head of the Armenian government, Nikol Pashinyan, and his entourage became very close to anti-Russian circles in Europe and the United States, so much so that they even began to try to discredit the peacekeeping efforts of the Russian President Vladimir Putin. Moreover, the other day, the Constitutional Court of Armenia recognized the obligations enshrined in the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) as corresponding to the Basic Law of the country, something it has refused to do since 1999. ."

 

Well this is a nice surprise as well. Former CSTO state moving away from them and toward NATO.  Putin is doing just a fantastic job of reconstituting the old Soviet Bloc.

[Icarus27k]

I hate to dampen the pro-Ukraine mood, but I'm still thinking a stalemate will be how the war ends. My guess is everyone in the U.S. government thinks the same. 

For example, the Abrams tank won't get to Ukraine until autumn at the the earliest, and I've long concluded Ukrainians won't even be able to operate an Abrams. 

The way it was explained to me is the Abrams is the luxury car of tanks. It breaks very easily if you don't know what you're doing, and American soldiers train for years before they are allowed to operate one. And once they are allowed to operate it, that's their entire job throughout their career 

[Top Gun]

On 4/6/2023 at 9:59 AM, Master-Debater131 said:

Russian rouble fell to its lowest level over last year: 80 roubles to the dollar

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/6/7396681/

"The Russian rouble has fallen against the dollar for the first time since April last year, to 80 roubles against the USD during trading on the Moscow Currency Exchange."

 

Sanctions are biting hard.

 

[tsar4]

I think I would have either left prior to, or walked out mid-meeting - hopefully embarrassing the self-important ass on the world stage.

[Icarus27k]

Most of those incidents were back in that time when we all thought Putin was just a weirdo with eccentricities, and everyone just tolerated it. Not even in a "hoping for the best" way because that implies a suspicion of what his evil nature is when we really didn't suspect it at all.

[scoobdog]

20 minutes ago, tsar4 said:

I think I would have either left prior to, or walked out mid-meeting - hopefully embarrassing the self-important ass on the world stage.

Perpetually making people wait is a form of negative conditioning.  It’s a way of eliciting a fail safe defensive response from the person who is delayed because of the tardiness.  It’s worth noting that Putin’s longest wait times were mostly to political subs making it likely that he’s not only asserting supremacy but also trying to trigger insecurity.  In Merkel’s case, though, it may well have intended to trigger an outright rebuff from the German Chancellor which Putin could use as leverage.

[Seight]

6 hours ago, tsar4 said:

I think I would have either left prior to, or walked out mid-meeting - hopefully embarrassing the self-important ass on the world stage.

...Why is it funny to me that Obama had to wait less time than Trump?

[katt_goddess]

10 hours ago, tsar4 said:

I think I would have either left prior to, or walked out mid-meeting - hopefully embarrassing the self-important ass on the world stage.

I would have left a Teddy Ruxpin on the table with a cassette loaded.

My time is money, talk to the weird escapee from the Bear Country Jamboree. 

[tsar4]

[Master-Debater131]

Putin's 45-mile-long 'mega trench': Russian troops dig huge defensive fortification visible from space as they prepare for Ukrainian counterattack

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11956187/Putins-45-mile-long-mega-trench-Russian-troops-dig-huge-defensive-fortification.html

"Vladimir Putin's forces are building a huge trench across Ukraine's invaded region of Zaporizhzhia as he prepares for a counteroffensive from Kyiv's armies.

The scar across the countryside - which can be seen from space - is some 45 miles in length so far, as Russia fears a repeat of last year when Ukraine won back swathes of territory.

Having invaded this part of Ukraine last year, Putin appears acutely worried about holding this strategic region after illegally annexing it into the Russian Federation.

The line is almost 50 miles behind the current frontline, indicating the Russian fear as to how far back the Russian despot's forces could be pushed.

The 'mega-trench' was highlighted by the Ukrainian Centre for Journalistic Investigations."

 

Its no surprise that Russia is preparing defensive fortifications for when the UA launches its counteroffensive. Whats so enlightening about this trench though is that its 50 miles behind the current lines. So even Putin is admitting with this trench that he expects the UA to retake some large swaths of the country. The UA is getting more and more advanced equipment from NATO and are turning into a fighting force that is highly trained by NATO as well. Weve already seen how Russian military doctrine fails when up against even moderately trained NATO forces. Its going to be interesting to watch what happens once the Russians run into the new and improved UA.

[Top Gun]

Party like it's 1915?

[tsar4]

Pentagon leak traced to gaming chat group

[Icarus27k]

43 minutes ago, tsar4 said:

Pentagon leak traced to gaming chat group

It's interesting to see what the U.S. government REALLY thinks about things in their classified documents, but most of it you can assume with educated guesses based on their policies and public statements. It's a relief that there isn't anything TOO shocking in the classified documents. 

The "killed in action" estimate for both Russia and Ukraine is notable. I've been wondering that myself. This is the clearest answer we've gotten. 

And yes, the death toll is inconceivable. It makes the Afghanistan (2001-2021) and Iraq (2003-2011) wars look tame by comparison.

Edited April 12, 2023 by Icarus27k

[Seight]

9 hours ago, tsar4 said:

Pentagon leak traced to gaming chat group

[Icarus27k]

Leaked Pentagon documents suggest US is pessimistic Ukraine can quickly end war against Russia

By Jeremy Herb, CNN

Updated 3:06 AM EDT, Wed April 12, 2023

 

CNN

 — 

The highly classified leaked Pentagon documents posted to social media offer a pessimistic US viewpoint about the state of the war in Ukraine, highlighting weaknesses in Ukraine’s weaponry and air defenses and predicting a stalemate in the war for months to come.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/11/politics/pentagon-documents-ukraine-war-assessment/index.html

 

 

To me, this sounds kind of "duh" but others treat it like it's a revelation. The Ukraine war is going to go on for years. It may stalemate and become a frozen conflict but neither side is going to win for a long time. 

This is news to the Ukrainians and many of their supporters who want a quick decisive victory and see it as grave injustice if it doesn't happen. But the U.S. has been in the position of trying to tamp down those lofty expectations. 

[Icarus27k]

 

This from the leaked U.S. documents. Up to 43,000 Russians and 17,500 Ukrainians killed so far. 

By contrast, 2,402 Americans were killed in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021 and 4,614 Americans killed in Iraq from 2003 to 2011.

[Icarus27k]

A Russian tank was left at a truck stop in the United States after the truck hauling it broke down. 

[Seight]

1 hour ago, Icarus27k said:

A Russian tank was left at a truck stop in the United States after the truck hauling it broke down. 

On the one hand, I'm shocked.

On the OTHER hand, I'm not as shocked that the place it showed up in was in Louisiana, somehow.

[Doom Metal Alchemist]

My money is on the Ukranian that claimed it sold it on ebay and it was in the middle of being transported to the buyer.

[katt_goddess]

6 minutes ago, Doom Metal Alchemist said:

My money is on the Ukranian that claimed it sold it on ebay and it was in the middle of being transported to the buyer.

And that buyer was Dale Gribble.

[Doom Metal Alchemist]

6 minutes ago, katt_goddess said:

And that buyer was Dale Gribble.

..........I mean Bill legit stole an actual U.S. Army tank...