Raptorpat

after I saw this I had to look because it was so stupid - it was a joint action between DEC and the Chemung County Sheriff - aka like the reddest of red on the southern tier above PA those darn republican sheriffs, having to enforce state environmental conservation law after getting complaints of a potential violation THIS WILL BE THE OPCTOBER SUPRISE THAT REVERSES FORTUNES

lol how dare millennials prefer quick service takeout over casual chain dining so they can eat at home while doomscrolling on their phones

i was literally going to splice all of that out for having zero to do with anything until that maga press release

I read multiple times they had a campaign call today where they said their internals show they're winning late deciders by double digits to which they credit the nazi rally. I wouldn't be surprised after it's over -If we wanted, we could read into Trump's recent outbursts about PA being stolen and all the social conservative outburstings about the "your husband doesn't have to know how you vote" ad campaign. It was off-record and can't verify though. But even if true, they will never formally announce that because the opposite of anxious is complacent. So anxiety it will be.

happy belated birthday @Hidden and @my-name-here!

Because in 2020/2022, Republicans from Trump-down were actively campaigning for their voters to vote in-person on election day itself, and realized that was a mistake when the Dem mail votes got banked instead of thrown out in court. So in 2024, Republicans from Trump-down are actively campaigning for their voters to vote by any means necessary including by mail and early in-person. The early vote isn't indicative of anything results-wise (beyond that votes are already being banked) until we have election day results in too. We just don't have a lifetime of data/patterns so say it means anything specific beyond spitballing. Early turnout is great, but no one can say whether the early vote is building on or cannibalizing the election day vote. All the pros (when I say "pros" I mean people whose goal is accuracy above all else) say to disregard any early vote tea leaves (unless it's Ralston reporting on NV). So we can reasonably infer Trump is probably ahead of the curve in NV (if those R votes are all for him), but nothing else means anything. Obviously we're all neurotic/anxious and want some kind of signs in the interim, but reading into early vote is just too speculative to be anything more than fun spitballing.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/elon-musks-high-stakes-trump-door-knocking-effort-america-pac-rcna176255

https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-america-pac-blitz-canvassing-michigan-uhaul/

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-elon-musk-republicans-super-pac-election-2024-1235134877/

The campaign dismantled the GOP's door-to-door GOTV operations in favor of cheaper "micro-targeting" early on, long before Biden dropped out. So the entire GOP GOTV operation was built from scratch at the last minute and is being run by Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk, who have no idea what they're doing.

it's not about tricking, it's just good old fashioned anonymous intimidation

happy birthday @OnTheAirOrtiz and @Mr_Batou!

here's some nightmare fuel https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/little-secret-trump-johnson-election/

It's a lot easier to pick up on the bottling than bottlers typically think, and I say that as a bottler.

not that it matters in this world, but he was clearly talking about the blatant racism at the Nazi rally this will obviously be used to rile up the redhats, but even taken in the context they want it to be taken I think it will serve to only rile up the redhats (who were voting anyways) while giving red state Dems and east softball to contrast themselves with Biden.

I'm not sure which adblocker I have but the past several weeks has been like a war between YouTube identifying the blocker is on and the blocker suddenly working again, back and forth forever

what does this mean

A chance to see if scotus actually believes in the Purcell principle (that federal courts can't state election rules at the last minute).

the right-wing grievance media that birthed itself out of rush limbaugh's hole spent two decades vilifying her, there were no introductions left to make or opinions to shape.

happy boardiversary! don't worry we can always catch your long, sappy content later