Raptorpat

ok fuck it I think Kamala is going to win. I don't think every state will be decided tonight, but it will be by a larger margin than Biden won in the critical tipping point states. I think Trump will overperform in the NYC metro region and underperform in the midwest states with ongoing fights over abortion or unpopular abortion bans. This won't affect their toplines (I'll say the candidates trade AZ for NC, otherwise match 2020 results), but it means that the GOP advantage in the electoral college (versus the popular vote) is reduced, and there will be downballot impacts. Swing seat Republican incumbents in the NYC metro region will survive, but they will be traded for seats in the midwest that weren't on top of all the tossup lists. Swing seat Democratic incumbents mostly hold on. Sherrod Brown survives and both the MT and TX Senate races go into overtime. Let's say that populist independent dude wins in Nebraska because partisanship won't override Deb Fischer's pisspoor campaign due to Trump's regional underperformance. Dems flip the House by a slightly larger margin than the GOP in 2022, and we find out in a few days that the GOP probably takes the Senate by one seat (50-49-1). The NYS Prop 1 Equal Rights Amendment fails (due to increased regional GOP performance), but the OH Issue 1 redistricting reform narrowly passes despite every possible GOP attempt to sabotage it.

I feel obligated to make a prediction but I'm struggling, the ghosts of 2016 are too menacing

The obvious answer is that beyond his own personal pet issues, he is the useful idiot. Like the whole Project 2025 thing. I 100% believe him that he has no idea what it is or what's in it. But the people who wrote it are the career Republican policy staff who sit tight in think tanks until their party wins the White House again. It doesn't really matter whether he's heard of it, because they are the ones who will make all the decisions that don't filter up to him.

Dixville Notch, NH just counted its results. Trump and Harris split the town's six votes evenly, three apiece.

I haven't written out any predictions yet but I'd wager Trump overperforms in the greater NYC metro region relative to the rest of the country, like the GOP in 2022. Not enough to flip any states, but possibly enough to help swing seat Republicans in the area to hold their seats.

edit: i didn't realize the rabies testing was because it bit a cop lol

I'm fairly convinced if there's a significant error in polling that it's overcounting Trump support

lol did you see that seltzer poll, or maybe the nazi rally? I think the odds are better than not that the bottom has completely dropped out from under their campaign

I'm sure it all played out legit, just not sure how it warped into presidential discourse

lol

deep dive on the selzer poll https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

The bottom must have fallen out, white supremacist Richard Spencer is voting for Harris lmao https://nypost.com/2024/11/02/us-news/prominent-white-supremacist-richard-spencer-endorses-kamala-harris/

let's be clear, if this was a story on it's own and wasn't being shoehorned in as an october surprise I would be having a very different conversation

I don't understand the medical science but unfortunately rabies testing (which I assume was obligatory) requires dissecting the brain "good news, no rabies!"

the instagram squirrel's fanbase sit back tswift, this fanbase is so large that it alone could tilt the election

I would guess they got the equivalent of "swatted" except in this case, it was technically illegal

I'm not saying that it wasn't a dumb series of events that led to a dumb outcome, but it's a state agency and local law enforcement enforcing a law they are obligated to enforce. And to say "people are pissed, this could be an election eve gift" just kind of goes to show how fragmented the internet really is, even on mass sites like twitter.

after I saw this I had to look because it was so stupid - it was a joint action between DEC and the Chemung County Sheriff - aka like the reddest of red on the southern tier above PA those darn republican sheriffs, having to enforce state environmental conservation law after getting complaints of a potential violation THIS WILL BE THE OPCTOBER SUPRISE THAT REVERSES FORTUNES

lol how dare millennials prefer quick service takeout over casual chain dining so they can eat at home while doomscrolling on their phones