Master-Debater131

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/19/us/politics/casey-pennsylvania-senate-ad-trump.html https://www.axios.com/2024/10/18/senate-democrats-campaign-ads-trump-2024 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2024/10/21/the-telltale-signs-that-kamala-harris-blue-wall-is-crumblin/

That Sunday night game was super tough for me to watch. Not because of teh game itself, but because I was super torn on who I wanted to win. On the one hand, if the Jets lost I knew the memes would be gold and the drama unending. On the other, I reallllyyyy wanted to see Wilson suck for the cathartic release after the last 2 years.

Thats both hilarious and genius. Hezbollah is not popular in Lebanon, but they control the money and weapons. By telling the entire world where they are storing their money that gives the Lebanese military a chance to raid it, or even for citizens to go raid the bank. This follows the IDF strategically targeting Hezbollah banks and finance centers in the last 48 hours. After decapitating Hezbollah the IDF are working to take out one of the last remaining pillars of their strength, finances. Take that out and the entire thing collapses.

Actions speak louder than words, or in politics actions speak louder than polls. There is more evidence that the top of the ticket is starting to impact down-ballot races in the swing states. Normally when running ads you embrace the candidate at the top of your ticket and say you will support them. Something else is starting to happen though. In these tough swing states Democrat candidates are now running ads touting how they have worked, and supported, Trump and Trumps policies. You don't do that if you think your candidate is pulling away in the race. Candidates are seeing something in their internal polls that has them worried that Harris will pull them down and cost their own seats. Republican candidates tried the same thing during the 2018 mid-terms and 2020 nationals when Biden was on the ticket. They knew that the top of the ticket was an anchor so they tried to abandon ship. It didnt work for them. It might work for Democrats in some of these swing states, but it also could mean there is a true cascade happening that gives the GOP more wins than expected. Theres going to be a surprise somewhere in here on election day, its just a question of where.

Team Joy really is having a hard time with this McDonalds thing. Never seen such a large number of people get triggered by a campaign stunt before.

While there's a lot of focus on the Presidential race, the Senate races are just as important. And just like the Presidential race, the GOP look good in their Senate races. All they need to do is win 1 seat to flip the Senate if they win the WH, 2 if they want to win it outright. Right now, the GOP are poised to pick up 2 seats. West Virginia is absolutely going to flip to the GOP, not even worth paying attention there. Montana is where the GOP look to get their 2nd pickup. Tester has survived a lot of close races, but this one looks like hes done. Sheehy has a 7 point lead in the RCP averages, and has led in every poll since June. Ohio is also a potential GOP pickup as well. That race is only separated by 0.5% in the RCP polls. A big GOP turnout in the Presidential election may be enough to bring Moreno over the finish line and give the GOP another pickup. PA, WI, and MI are all also tightening up as the races come to the finish line. A GOP win at the top of the ticket might pull a Senate win for them as well. Nevada is a long shot for the GOP, but there has been some clear momentum there for the GOP in recent weeks. Polling has tightened up, but Democrats still hold a 6 point lead. Probably enough to hold that seat, but may be one that produces a surprise on election day if trends continue. As good as the map looks for the GOP, the Democrats are in the exact opposite spot. There are no chances for a pickup this year. They are hilariously putting resources into Texas and Florida, only for the usual Lucy with the Football result. Neither state is particularly close and at no point in these races have the polls been even within the MoE. They are solidly Republican states, and the Senate results will end up that way.

Its beautiful

Absolutely incredible news. The rat bastard is dead and can rot in hell for all eternity. One of the most evil pieces of shit on this planet is dead. And the video of his last minutes was absolutely glorious. Just a pure piece of shit that got what was coming to him. Makes everything worth it. All the hard work by the IDF to flush out all the Hamas terrorists and leave nowhere to hide. His last days were spent hiding among civilians dressed as a woman being moved from house to house in total fear. Big props to Bibi as well who knew he had to prosecute this war wherever it took Israel to ensure their continued safety. He knew he couldnt listen to the useful idiots in the West and had to go for the kill. And he knew he couldnt listen to Biden and Harris who said multiple times that going into Rafah would be a disaster. It wasnt, it was where the IDF absolutely needed to go to truly decimate Hamas. Just amazing work all around. And that young soldier who got him wont buy a beer ever again. This is right up there with the killing of Bin Laden.

Eat A Bag Of Nix Oh Im so using that

Well hes not going to be around to see the rise of the Fourth Hike

Its truly remarkable just how effective Israel has been at their war. Not only are they taking out some of the most vile evil people on the planet, but they now have terrorist groups basically doing the spider man meme.

Uh, also fuck the Rockies. Im a Padres fan As long as Monfort owns the team the Rockies may not even exist to me.

And the Owner had a meeting with Rodgers a few days ago where they swear they didnt talk about it. Which is exactly what you would say if that was the central topic of your meeting. Ide say there is close to a 0% chance that Rodgers wasnt involved in this.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-putin-biden-nuclear-weapons-90cb3bb3499a5e211095b3f93173a575 US scrambled to urge Putin not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Woodward book says "WASHINGTON (AP) — Months into Russia’s war in Ukraine, the United States had intelligence pointing to “highly sensitive, credible conversations inside the Kremlin” that President Vladimir Putin was seriously considering using nuclear weapons to avoid major battlefield losses, journalist Bob Woodward reported in his new book, “War.” The U.S. intelligence pointed to a 50% chance that Putin would use tactical nukes if Ukrainian forces surrounded 30,000 Russian troops in the southern city of Kherson, the book says. Just months before, in the far northeast, Ukrainian troops had stunned the Russians by recapturing Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, and were pivoting to liberate Kherson, strategically located on the Dnieper River not far from the Black Sea." We may have been closer to a nuclear use than previously thought. This is from a book, so it may just be sensationalist to sell copies, but it does line up with some of what was previously leaked. There was a rumor early on in the war that we told Putin if he used a nuke in Ukraine we would wipe out all Russian forces in the region using conventional weapons. Xi also was rumored to tell Putin that if he used a nuke China would abandon him.

Fuck the Dodgers They are the softest organization, with some of the worst fans, in all of baseball.

Polling is starting to show a Trump advantage as well. Its not just worth looking at where current polls are, but also at historic comps. We have 2 previous elections we can look at to see what happened, and how the polls show whos got the advantage right now. National- Harris is running 7 points behind Biden and 2.6 behind Hillary. Hillary lost, Biden won. If shes this far behind Biden at this point thats a bad sign for her. Wisconsin - Again, behind both Biden and Hillary. Biden and Hillary wound up winning these. Biden by only 0.6%. Penn - Trumps actually leading here, and Harris is behind both Hillary and Trump. This is the strange one where Biden was performing worse than Hillary at this time but went on to win the state. Probably a bit of a home-town advantage for Biden, something Harris wont have. Ohio - not even worth mentioning. Thats going Trump Michigan - this may be the biggest flip this time around. Harris is well behind both Biden and Hillary. Biden was up 6.7% and wound up winning by roughly 3%. Harris is barely up with a 0.5% lead right now. Thats horrible for her. Democrats are already openly talking about how worried they are about Michigan flipping to Trump. He does that and its going to be extremely hard for Harris to win. Arizona - Polls have actually been fairly accurate on predicting the eventual winner here. No reason to think that wont continue based on recent history. NC - Trump has the lead right now. Biden had a 1.8% lead and Trump wound up winning it in 2020. Georgia - Probably the most likely to flip polls to Harris. In 2020 it was a Tie and Biden wound up squeaking out a win. Florida isnt worth talking about- Trumps got this in the bag. In all of these states Harris is running behind both Hillary and Biden at the same point in time. If the polls miss by even relatively the same amount as the last 2 elections then Trump is going to win the majority of these states. Trump has the advantage right now, and theres not a ton of time, or reasons, for the trajectory of this race to change. Theres nothing that can be said about Trump that isnt already said. Which is different from Harris where it seems like she does worse every time people learn about her. As of now, Trump is probably the favorite to win this thing.

Joe, or maybe more likely, Jill Biden is doing whatever they can to sabotage the Harris campaign. This is the 2nd time in a week where Harris has gone out to do an major, well major for her, event and Biden counter programs her at the same exact time. This time it was when she went on The View. While she was doing that Biden was doing his own press event talking about preparing for Hurricane Milton. Biden also went a step further this time and flatly rejected the Harris talking point that DeSantis was refusing to coordinate with the White House. Turns out that not only is that not true, its hilariously wrong. DeSantis and the Biden Admin have been in pretty constant communication leading up to the hurricane. Biden even praised DeSantis for his preparedness before the storm. Biden really does hate Harris.

Saleh was going to fire Hackett, so Rodgers got Saleh fired. Its amazing. I knew I should have picked the Jets as my LOL team this year.

Im starting to think more and more that he is trying to sabotage her campaign as payback for her leading the palace coup against his campaign.

Did the Broncos make a hype video for our throwback jerseys this weekend? Yes, yes we did. Broncos are fully embracing the throwback weekend. The Broncos app has been updated to have retro themes. Field is painted like its the 80s. They said the music will be more of a live-band throw back thing this weekend. I cannot wait to see how this goes.

Hoooo Boy. Israel is doing some pretty impressive working taking out Hezbollah. There hasnt been independent confirmation of these claims yet, but theres a ton of anecdotal evidence that its true. If it is true though then this may wind up being the most consequential strike in the entire war. Israel has been playing whack-a-mole with Hezbollah leadership for a couple of weeks, and they have been wildly successful at it. This however is a true decapitation strike. Its one thing to take out the leader, its another to take out the entire structure that picks a leader. If the council truly is gone, that leaves no one left to really pick the next leader. Its absolutely remarkable how effective Israel has been at taking out Hezbollah. They were considered the most powerful non-state terrorist entity in the region, and Israel is ripping through them like they were tissue paper.