Master-Debater131

For the candidates, Trump is Trump. We all know who he is, and we have all had 4 years of him being President. So his status was already set. Harris, on the other hand, was an absolutely horrible candidate from Day 1. Anyone who is honest with themselves would see that. She failed to gain a single vote in the primaries, and flamed out before her own state of California was ever able to vote for her. Tulsi Gabbard ended her campaign in 2020 before it ever got going. Prior to being anointed as the nominee this year she was one of the most unpopular VPs in American history. At no point did people ever have a favorable opinion of her. If there was an actual open primary following the palace coup against Biden she would not have won. But Democrats couldnt do that because it risked shattering their coalition, something that may have happened anyway. She was the most artificial candidate we have ever seen, and couldnt even find a way to answer some of the most basic questions asked of her. "What would you do different from Biden?" "Nothing" Thats as politically tone deaf an answer as you can possibly have when everything suggested people are not happy with the direction of the country. The VP pick wasnt any better. She went with Waltz because she couldnt go with the Jewish Shapiro. The antisemitic wing of the Democratic party was simply too strong for her to go with the much smarter and more politically adept pick of Shapiro. Waltz turned into a huge liability and did nothing to help bring rural voters, particularly men, into the Democratic fold. His debate performance was horrible, and he was just weird. Vance on the other hand clearly demonstrated an ability to communicate with people, and his performances on those podcasts are a huge reason why men showed up for Trump. Joe Rogan wound up potentially being kingmaker this year. Harris flat out refused to go to Rogan to do the podcast. Trump, Vance, and Trump surrogate Musk all made sure to go to that podcast. A three hour conversation that made them all seem like perfectly normal people. Harris absolutely needed to do that, and she didnt. Those conversations perfectly pierced the media bubble that Trump is Hitler. No one who listened to those podcasts would think that. Baron Trump apparently was instrumental in having the Trump campaign lean into these podcasts to get to these voters.

Ahhh what a fun day this has been. Ive been consuming all sorts of Liberal media today to see if they have learned anything at all from last night, and so far the answer is No. Even here the obvious answers are being discredited for the old tropes. Harris lost because of racism, sexism, the country is full of Nazis, or people are just too stupid to understand whats good for them. The biggest issue was the economy, and no matter what people are told they do not feel that the economy is working for them. When groceries cost what they do, people will never believe you when you say "trust me, the economy is good". Abortion also was not the game changing issue that Democrats thought it would be. Women didnt vote in lock step for a single issue abortion campaign, but instead they acted like most other voting groups and weighed different positions to decide who to vote for. Across the country Abortion issues won at the state level, but then didnt translate into enough votes at the top of the ticket. That issue is working exactly how SCOTUS said it should, its a State issue, and States are figuring it out. Missouri, a blood red state, passed an Abortion resolution while voting overwhelmingly for Trump. Last night also clearly showed that there is a realignment between the working class and the elites, and the GOP is clearly becoming the party of the working class. Trump made massive gains among minority men, and particularly working class men. This continues a trend that we have seen for a while now where Men, particularly working class men, are trending toward the GOP. Men, in general, also showed up in ways that they havent before (more on that in a different post). For all the talk about the gender gap among women carrying Harris over the line, the Democratic weakness among Men absolutely offset that. Married Women also tend to vote more Republican than Democrat, and it looks like they showed up last night. In the cases where this is brought up by commentators, those commentators are instantly browbeat into submission and not allowed to expand on that. Democratic pundits still fully believe that the only reason that Harris lost is because of racism, sexism, and Nazis. Inflation, Crime, Immigration, all considered back-seat issues to the real driver why Harris lost, racism, sexism, and Nazis. Democrats had learned this lesson after 2016 when they nominated Biden in 2020 to win the working class vote, but then abandoned it right away this year in favor of playing identity politics with a wealthy elite woman from a wealthy elite background. Oh, and you shouldnt have killed that squirrel.

Well with that, Im going to bed. And boooyyyy will I have a lot to say tomorrow.

Its over Fox News has called Pennsylvania for Trump. Donald Trump has just been elected the 47th President of the United States.

I kinda doubt its going to happen. As I sit here now I think I got the WH and House calls wrong. Trump has the clear advantage for the White House and probably popular vote, and I think Democrats with the House with a 2-5 Seat advantage. Trump simply has a huge advantage right now, and all he needs is a single Blue Wall state. Hes leading in all 3 right now. NYT has him at a greater than 95% chance of winning, and thinks that PA is going to be called soon. Trump is probably going to win more than 300 EC votes, and may have a clear governing mandate at that. Something I simply did not believe was going to happen. Rumor is that the Secret Services has dispatched a full Presidential detail to Florida to start working with Trump. Probably most indicative of all is how the Harris campaign is acting. They are pulling a page directly from the Hillary playbook. She wont speak tonight, and instead she sent out one of her staffers to tell people to go home.

Ive been right on everything so far. Dead on with my EC predictions, and the Senate races are going exactly like I said.

NYT has it as a Trump pickup as well. Its not called, but its absolutely clear that Trump is going to win Georgia.

Trump is setting new records for the GOP among Black Men, Jewish voters, Latinos, and Men in general across the country.

Moreno has won the Senate race for Ohio. GOP with a clear majority in the Senate now.

DDHQ called Georgia for Trump. Trump currently sits at 242 EC votes according to DDHQ

Now this one is just absolutely remarkable. Among people who said that Democracy was their #1 issue this election, Trump won by 7 points.

Its fking hot in that thing! Feels great, but like 20 minutes max and then its just hot. Cant sit in there for ages and just cook.

Yeaaaaaaaaa, about that Selter poll......... NYT is currently projecting Trump to win the Popular Vote as well as the EC.

While we still wait on votes, one thing that absolutely must be said is that Florida has set the gold standard for elections. Im not talking results, Im talking how they are run. Florida is one of our larger states and is in 2 time zones, it took nearly 90 minutes to count 10 million votes. They were a joke for the "hanging chads" and now are the gold standard for elections. That is how elections absolutely need to be done. There is no real excuse in the modern age for votes to take days to collect. You can say what you want about them, but their elections are secure and quickly tabulated. No reason the rest of the country cant follow that model.

Bitcoin is currently on a tear. That could be a sign that the market expects Trump to win. He is generally seen as the more pro-crypto candidate. Its up nearly $5K today, and is starting to really take off.

Like I said, Democrats were going to chace the football in Texas just for it to be pulled away again. This was absolutely obvious for people who really stepped back and looked at things. DDHQ is giving the GOP a 97% chance of winning the Senate now, and they are also thinking it will be 53-47. Just like I had predicted. In the House, its roughly 55% the GOP hold that as well. They have flipped 3 seats so far tonight.

So far it seems like Trump is running 3-5 points ahead of where the polls finished. If that holds, hes in good shape. That was the question coming into this, did the shy Trump vote? Ohio was called for Trump, not a surprise at all. The Senate race is still too close to call. Its snowing, and I have been summoned by the lady for some hot tub time because of that. Hottubbing in the snow is just awesome. Trump is at 69% in DDHQ right now. Who knows what itll be when I get back.

Its not The Needle, but DDHQ has a good tracker as well. These guys are generally pretty accurate, and were one of the first groups to call Arizona for Biden 4 years ago. Data nerds doing data nerd things. https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/ Been bouncing around for Trump in the 60s most of the nice, and spent some time at at 69% before briefly touching 70%.

Florida was never in question. It was always going to the GOP. Whats so interesting is seeing how Trump is carrying the Latino vote in Florida. As for Georgia, it sounds like Trump is winning 25% of Black Men. If thats true, he has an extremely good chance at winning Georgia.

Justice has won his Senate race in WV. Thats the first pickup of the night, and means the Senate is now currently 50-50 if no other seats flip.

Indiana and Kentucky called immediately for Trump. Vermont same for Harris. Sanders wins his reelection campaign in VT. Edit: Missed the Indiana Senate call as well. Immediately for Banks, GOP hold.

Its funny how true this is. Neither candidate really should have a chance at this because they both truly are horrible horrible candidates.

You be quiet. Exit polls are never wrong and have never once been contradictory to the final outcome

Exit polls!